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Covid-19 update Friday 24th April
Good morning from the UK. It’s Friday 24th April. My marigold seeds have taken off and are starting to sprout secondary stage leaves (marigolds are good companion plants; they ward off various pests in a vegetable garden whilst they can also be good sacrificial plants should a slug manage to somehow breach our electric barrier). Meanwhile, the first of my wife’s radishes seeds is starting to emerge from the compost she put in a recycled milk carton tetrapak a few days ago; she’s very excited by this. Advance warning, today’s post is a bit food supply chain heavy. Happy Friday everybody.
Virus news in depth
AP Story from Tuesday 21st April: UN food agency chief: World on brink of `a hunger pandemic’ - The head of the U.N. food agency warned Tuesday that, as the world is dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, it is also “on the brink of a hunger pandemic” that could lead to “multiple famines of biblical proportions” within a few months if immediate action isn’t taken. World Food Program Executive Director David Beasley told the U.N. Security Council that even before COVID-19 became an issue, he was telling world leaders that “2020 would be facing the worst humanitarian crisis since World War II.” That’s because of wars in Syria, Yemen and elsewhere, locust swarms in Africa, frequent natural disasters and economic crises including in Lebanon, Congo, Sudan and Ethiopia, he said. Beasley said today 821 million people go to bed hungry every night all over the world, a further 135 million people are facing “crisis levels of hunger or worse,” and a new World Food Program analysis shows that as a result of COVID-19 an additional 130 million people “could be pushed to the brink of starvation by the end of 2020.” He said in the video briefing that WFP is providing food to nearly 100 million people on any given day, including “about 30 million people who literally depend on us to stay alive.” (Cont’d) Beasley, who is recovering from COVID-19, said if those 30 million people can’t be reached, “our analysis shows that 300,000 people could starve to death every single day over a three-month period” — and that doesn’t include increased starvation due to the coronavirus. “In a worst-case scenario, we could be looking at famine in about three dozen countries, and in fact, in 10 of these countries we already have more than one million people per country who are on the verge of starvation,” he said. According to WFP, the 10 countries with the worst food crises in 2019 were Yemen, Congo, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Syria, Sudan, Nigeria and Haiti. He pointed to a sharp drop in overseas remittances that will hurt countries such as Haiti, Nepal and Somalia; a loss of tourism revenue which, for example, will damage Ethiopia where it accounts for 47 percent of total exports; and the collapse of oil prices which will have a significant impact in lower-income countries like South Sudan where oil accounts for almost 99 percent of total exports. The Gulf Times takes a different slant on the story: ‘Instead of coronavirus, the hunger will kill us’; COVID-19 brings fears of a global food crisis - In Kibera, the largest slum in Kenya’s capital Nairobi, people desperate to eat set off a stampede during a recent giveaway of flour and cooking oil, leaving scores injured and two people dead. The coronavirus has sometimes been called an equaliser because it has sickened both rich and poor, but when it comes to food, the commonality ends. It is poor people, including large segments of poorer nations, who are now going hungry and facing the prospect of starving. “The coronavirus has been anything but a great equaliser,” said Asha Jaffar, a volunteer who brought food to families in the Nairobi slum of Kibera after the fatal stampede. “It’s been the great revealer, pulling the curtain back on the class divide and exposing how deeply unequal this country is.” Already, 135 million people had been facing acute food shortages, but now with the pandemic, 130 million more could go hungry in 2020, said Arif Husain, chief economist at the World Food Program, a UN agency. Altogether, an estimated 265 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by year’s end. “We’ve never seen anything like this before,” Husain said. “It wasn’t a pretty picture to begin with, but this makes it truly unprecedented and uncharted territory.” (Cont’d) There is no shortage of food globally, or mass starvation from the pandemic yet continues the Gulf Times article. But logistical problems in planting, harvesting and transporting food will leave poor countries exposed in the coming months, especially those reliant on imports, said Johan Swinnen, director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington. While the system of food distribution and retailing in rich nations is organised and automated, he said, systems in developing countries are “labour intensive,” making “these supply chains much more vulnerable to COVID-19 and social distancing regulations.” On a recent evening, hundreds of migrant workers, who have been stuck in New Delhi after a lockdown was imposed in March with little warning, sat under the shade of a bridge waiting for food to arrive. The Delhi government has set up soup kitchens, yet workers like Nihal Singh go hungry as the throngs at these centres have increased in recent days. “Instead of coronavirus, the hunger will kill us,” said Singh, who was hoping to eat his first meal in a day. Coronavirus-driven CO2 shortage threatens US food, water and beer supply, officials say - The Guardian reports that there is an emerging shortage of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) according to a Washington state emergency planning document. The document, a Covid-19 situation report produced by the State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC), contains a warning from the state’s office of drinking water (ODW) about difficulties in obtaining CO2, which is essential for the process of water treatment. The document says that the ODW is “still responding to [that day’s] notification of a national shortage of CO2”. It continues: “Several [water plants] had received initial notification from their vendors that their supply would be restricted to 33% of normal.” It further warns: “So far utilities have been able to make the case that they are considered essential to critical infrastructure and have been returned to full supply. However, we want to ask if CISA [the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency] can assess this through their contacts, if this is sustainable given the national shortage.” (Cont’d) Asked to clarify the nature of this problem, ODW director Mike Means said in an email that his agency had first learned of potential problems when Seattle public utilities were “contacted by their vendor Airgas who supplied a copy of a Force Majeure notice”, warning them that their CO2 order would be reduced due to pandemic-related shortages. Force majeure is a contractual defense that allows parties to escape liability for contracts in the case of events – such as a pandemic – that could not be reasonably foreseen. In this case, Means wrote, “Airgas informed in their notice that they would only be able to do 80% of their normal service but subsequent discussions said to expect more like 33%”. At this point, he added, “we reached out to understand if this was a WA specific problem or national. We quickly understood it to be a national issue.” (Cont’d) ODW had then contacted federal agencies such as CISA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) and industry bodies such as the Association of State Drinking Water Authorities (ASDWA). The main reason for national shortages, according to the CEO of the Compressed Gas Association (CGA), Rich Gottwald, is a ramping down of ethanol production. “Back in the summertime, the [Trump] administration exempted some gasoline manufacturers from using ethanol. Then we had Russia and Saudi Arabia flooding the market with cheap gasoline. All of that led to an oversupply of ethanol,” Gottwald said. “As ethanol manufacturers were ramping down because there wasn’t a market for their product, along comes Covid-19, which meant people weren’t driving anywhere”, he added. This led to plant closures, including among the 50 specialized plants that collect CO2 for the food and beverage market. Gottwald’s association, along with a number of associations representing food and beverage industries, which together use 77% of food-grade CO2, issued a joint warning to the federal government about the shortage. In an open letter to the vice-president, Mike Pence, the coalition warns: “Preliminary data show that production of CO2 has decreased by approximately 20%, and experts predict that CO2 production may be reduced by 50% by mid-April.” It continues: “A shortage in CO2 would impact the US availability of fresh food, preserved food and beverages, including beer production.” The 'land army' needed to keep the UK's food supply chain going as thousands of tonnes of food risks going to waste - ITV has done a piece on the UK farming supply chain. Farmers are desperate for help. Without their usual influx of migrant workers from the EU, thousands of tonnes of food risk going to waste in fields up and down the country, just as the summer crops come into season. Every year our farming industry needs 90,000 seasonal workers. Like Robyn, many have put themselves forward - but in no way near the numbers needed. Others are finding the application process hard to navigate. Mark Thorogood, whose family have run the Essex farm for three generations, says it’s a perilous time for the food supply chain. "If we can't get the labour – it doesn’t get picked. That’s the crux of it", he said. Meanwhile, the charity The Food Foundation claims more than one and a half million Britons are going without food for at least a day because of the pandemic and three million have experienced hunger since the lockdown. On top of all that - the reality that nearly 50% of our food comes from abroad. With the numbers of ships crossing the Channel reduced and port workers hit by the virus, this is now under threat too. So could this crisis see a permanent change in how we feed our nation? The country's leading voice on food security, Professor Tim Lang gave us a grave warning: "The entire world food system is being disrupted. More disruptions are coming. Plantings not happening, food being wasted. "Britain only produces about 50% of its food - the country that can only half feed itself has got to wake up". (Personal note: this is why I’m putting effort into growing veg)
New Zealand: People are being urged not to relax alert level 4 restrictions over Anzac weekend. The country will move to level 3 at 11.59pm on Monday but police say they will continue to enforce the current restrictions until then. They say officers will be visible on the roads, with checkpoints operating at holiday hot spots. (Personal note: It’s the local equivalent of memorial weekend there with NZ and parts of Australia enjoying Monday as a public holiday). Level 3 restrictions mean organised sports are still not allowed outside the home bubble, including playing frisbee or kicking a rugby ball around. Playgrounds and public sports facilities are still off limits, and physical distancing is still required when exercising outside. Sports such as golf, tennis, and bowls, where two metres of distancing is possible can be played, and mountain biking on known trails is permitted for experienced bikers.
Three southern Sydney beaches closed for a second time, only five days after being reopened, according to a statement from the Randwick City Council. The beaches of Clovelly, Coogee and Maroubra were shut at 1pm Friday after “people failed to use beaches for exercise only.” The three beaches will reopen Saturday and Sunday between 6am to 9am for exercise only, according to the council. The situation will be reassessed on Monday.
Results of a new survey from C+R Research shows that 60 percent of American shoppers are “now fearful” to shop at grocery stores, with 73 percent saying they are shopping less at physical stores says The Spoon. Not surprisingly, C+R’s survey also found that grocery delivery has shot up 3.5x during the pandemic. Whereas consumers used to take an average of 2.3 weekly trips to the grocery store before the COVID-19 outbreak, they now average 1 trip a week.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has criticized China previously for its handling of coronavirus, but tonight he was clearer than ever, saying, "China caused an enormous amount of pain, loss of life, and now a huge challenge for the global economy and the American economy as well by not sharing the information they had." Pompeo, appearing on Sean Hannity’s show on Fox, added, "I am very confident that the Chinese Communist Party will pay a price for what they did here, certainly from the United States."
Inevitably, left leaning media sources such as The Guardian have attacked President Trump for his suggestion yesterday of injecting disinfectant to cure the virus. At Thursday’s White House coronavirus task force briefing, the US president discussed new government research on how the virus reacts to different temperatures, climates and surfaces. “And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute,” Trump said. “One minute! And is there a way we can do something, by an injection inside or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that. So, that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me.” Dr Deborah Birx, the task force response coordinator, remained silent. But social media erupted in hilarity and outrage at the president, who has a record of defying science and also floated the idea of treating patients’ bodies with ultraviolet (UV) light. (Personal note: already I’ve seen several memes on the topic).
Germany’s coronavirus reproduction rate has increased to 0.9 according to the country's centre for disease and control, the Robert Koch Institute, meaning every 10 people with the virus infect an average of nine others. That’s up from a reproduction rate of 0.7 a week ago, according to the Institute’s Vice President Lars Schaade. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has previously warned that if the number -- also known as the R0 value -- rises above 1, the country’s health system would eventually be overwhelmed. Yesterday she expressed concern that some German states were moving to ease coronavirus restrictions too soon, saying it could undermine the results that have been achieved.
The British prime minister is recovering at his countryside retreat, but there's no decision yet on when he will return to work, Health Secretary Matt Hancock told Sky News.
It's the first day of the holy month of Ramadan for Muslims; in Indonesia, millions can't travel home as is custom due to travel bans, and in Malaysia, the national lockdown has been extended through early May. Meanwhile, Muslims in India are facing discrimination, attacks, and being blamed for spreading the virus. An infection cluster was identified at a Muslim group's event last month, heightening public fear and Islamophobia.
Police in the United Arab Emirates are deploying smart helmets that can scan the temperatures of hundreds of people every minute in their effort to combat the new coronavirus. The helmets, which need less time and less contact than traditional thermometers, can measure temperatures from five metres (16ft) away and scan up to 200 people a minute, triggering an alert if a fever is detected. Chinese company KC Wearable says it has sold more than 1,000 of the temperature-scanning helmets and has received orders from the Middle East, Europe and Asia.
Supply chain news in depth
Hidden threat: Japan only has a 2-week stockpile of LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) - If supplies stop, it will cause major power supply problems in the country says Nikkei’s Asian review which has an article highlighting the continuing energy supply chain vulnerability in Japan ever since the Fukushima nuclear disaster. It takes about one month to ship LNG from the Middle East to Japan explains the article but if the coronavirus outbreak prevents ships from docking in Japan it could have a big impact on the country's power supply. The physical properties of LNG mean it is poorly suited for long-term storage hence the country only holding a two-week stockpile. Despite this, the country depends on the fuel for 40% of its electric power generation needs, and all of the LNG it uses is imported from the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Tokyo Bay, which stretches across the prefectures of Chiba, Tokyo and Kanagawa, is Japan's most important LNG power generation hub. JERA operates many of the power plants there, all of which run on LNG. Accounting for about 30% of Japan's total LNG power generation, these plants produce 26 million kilowatts of electricity. If, for instance, the coronavirus was to force these plants to stop, the Greater Tokyo area would immediately lose its power supply (Personal note: that’s a population of approx 38.5m people). (Cont’d) Today, LNG is a pillar of Japan's electricity. Before the March 11, 2011, earthquake and tsunami in Japan, LNG made up 28% of the country's power generation. That increased to 40% in fiscal 2017 as the nation's nuclear power plants went off grid, one after the other, following the Fukushima nuclear crisis. While some of Japan's nuclear plants have come back online, based on the strictest standards in the world, only three of the 10 electric power companies have been able to do so. Moreover, the coronavirus is inching closer and closer to the nuclear plants. Recently, a contractor working at the Genkai Nuclear Power Plant in the southern prefecture of Saga tested positive for the virus and construction at the site was stopped temporarily. Japan has traditionally tried to maintain a diverse mixture of power sources -- including nuclear, LNG, fossil fuels and renewable energy -- due to its reliance on imports as an island nation. "It is highly unbalanced to depend close to half of our energy on LNG alone," an official at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry concedes. With shipments arriving constantly, a few missed shipments will not immediately signal a crisis. But an extended cutoff will spell trouble for the country. (Cont’d) Japan was already facing a power shortage this year, "so the timing is very bad," said a power industry source. The Sendai nuclear power plant in Kagoshima Prefecture was shut down last month because it failed to meet antiterrorism standards. The No. 3 reactor at the Ikata nuclear power plant in Ehime Prefecture is offline following a court injunction. The number of nuclear reactors in operation this year is expected to temporarily fall by half from nine, so Japan cannot rely heavily on nuclear power. Japan's energy self-sufficiency stands at about 10%, well below the 40% for food. The movement to shift away from carbon has led to a backlash against domestic coal-fired power plants, so dependence on LNG could rise further. One reason that Tokyo Electric is rushing to restart its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant in Niigata Prefecture is because "heavy concentration in LNG power in Tokyo Bay is a major risk to the stable supply of power," according to an official at the utility. The coronavirus pandemic is testing whether Japan's government and utilities can diversify energy sources to prepare against the risks that threaten supplies. USA meat packing plant Covid-19 problems worse than originally thought - A rash of coronavirus outbreaks at dozens of meatpacking plants across the nation is far more extensive than previously thought, according to an exclusive review of cases by USA TODAY and the Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting. More than 150 of America’s largest meat processing plants operate in counties where the rate of coronavirus infection is already among the nation’s highest, based on the media outlets’ analysis of slaughterhouse locations and county-level COVID-19 infection rates. These facilities represent more than 1 in 3 of the nation’s biggest beef, pork and poultry processing plants. Rates of infection around these plants are higher than those of 75% of other U.S. counties, the analysis found. (Cont’d) While experts say the industry has thus far maintained sufficient production despite infections in at least 2,200 workers at 48 plants, there are fears that the number of cases could continue to rise and that meatpacking plants will become the next disaster zones. "Initially our concern was long-term care facilities," said Gary Anthone, Nebraska's chief medical officer, in a Facebook Live video Sunday. “If there's one thing that might keep me up at night, it's the meat processing plants and the manufacturing plants." Factory workers, unions, and even managers say the federal government – including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration – has done little more than issue non-enforceable guidance. On its website, for example, the CDC has released safety guidelines for critical workers and businesses, which primarily promote common-sense measures of sanitization and personal distancing. USA Today says that state health departments have also taken a backseat role in all but a few places. There’s more in the article here.
Supply chain news in brief
Supply chain dive gives a glimpse into the soaring demand for PPE during the pandemic. Numbers from group purchasing organization Premier and data software company ESO show the supply chain gaps in getting needed personal protective equipment (PPE) to those on the front lines. Data on increasing orders of PPE in the hospital setting and the arc of COVID-19 calls compared to a typical flu season show the pandemic in a new light. Healthcare procurement departments and group buying organizations track purchases as part of business. When a spike in usage occurs, it helps them understand their needs and project what will happen. "Dealing with COVID, we’re using five to seven times more PPE than with the traditional patient," Michael Alkire, president of Premier (a group purchasing organisation), told Supply Chain Dive. Typically, Premier purchases 22 million to 24 million N95 respirators per year for its members, including about 4,000 hospitals and 175,000 nonacute healthcare providers and organizations. In January and February, before the virus was spreading rapidly in the U.S., Premier’s members used 56 million respirators.In late March, Premier's systems were ordering 110 million to 150 million respirators, Alkire stated in an Alliance for Health Policy webinar. According to a March Premier survey of its hospitals, 23% of respondents had less than a 10-day supply in inventory. The number of SKUs (SKU = Single Keeping Unit, think of it as a unique product code) on allocation, meaning ordering is restricted due to a shortage, has also skyrocketed. On March 23, 2,600 unique SKUs were on national allocation, Alkire said. By April 1, that number had risen to 9,200. PPE categories can have multiple SKUs. The N95 respirator could have 50 SKUs, including various sizes and colors.
The Singapore Times reports that small businesses in Thailand’s food manufacturing and wholesale trade industries have been encouraged to buy and sell across regional borders, with the help of a new online channel. Thaitrade.com, an e-commerce portal run by the country’s Department of International Trade Promotion, teamed up with a Singapore-based firm to raise the profile of selected Thai brands. The partnership with business-to-business wholesale food platform OctoRocket, which is partly owned by Business Times publisher Singapore Press Holdings (SPH), aims to help Thai food manufacturers export their wares. Food suppliers in Thailand can also tap the new channel to connect with regional counterparts and source products from the rest of South-east Asia for Thai consumers.
A billion kilos of French fries but nobody wants them anymore; NRC.nl reports (link, in dutch) that the demand for French fries has collapsed now that the catering industry is closed due to the coronavirus meaning growers across the Netherlands are left with full sheds. The Netherlands is one of the largest chip potato producers in Europe the article explains, clarifying that the potatoes mainly end up in restaurants, cafes, canteens and fast-food chains, but catering has been largely closed worldwide since the outbreak of the corona virus. 1.5 million tons of Dutch fries potatoes remain from the 2019 harvest. Two-thirds of this is unsaleable, the potato sector estimates. It works out at around sixty kilos per inhabitant of the Netherlands. André Hoogendijk, director of branch organization BO Akkerbouw, says that the Dutch potato sector does not quickly ask for help and until recently the sector had been buoyant but this week, the potato sector held a crisis meeting with Minister Carola Schouten of Agriculture (ChristenUnie). According to Hoogendijk, the minister accepts the severity of the problem and economic need but no concrete commitments have yet been made. "We hope for financial compensation" he says.
The major US grocery chain Publix has committed to buying surplus milk and food that would normally go to schools, catering companies and restaurants and will donate it to America’s food banks according to Business Insider. The effort is intended to help both farmers who have had to discard unsold product and the growing number of Americans facing food insecurity. It expects to donate more than 150,000 pounds (circa 68 tonnes) of produce and 43,500 gallons of milk (approx 165,000 litres) in the first week of the initiative.
Major US supermarket chain Krogers has told ABC that America’s food supply is stabilizing, but it will be up to consumers to keep the supply for some hot-button items in check, Kroger CEO Rodney McMullen said in an exclusive with "Good Morning America." “I was in the store last night — we had toilet paper, plenty of meat variety products: beef, pork, chicken, all those things,” McMullen, CEO of America’s second-largest general retailer, said. “As for hand sanitizer, I think it is going to take a little bit longer.” The sentiment from Kroger’s CEO has been echoed by Wegmans (another supermarket chain in the US, predominantly in the NE of the country). “While the unexpected increase in demand has challenged the supply chain, we’re seeing it start to equal out,” said Laura Camera, a Wegmans spokesperson. “We are confident it will stabilize as long as we prioritize our needs.”
Manufacturing activity in the UK has slumped to record lows says the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (link). Widespread business shutdowns at home and abroad in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic unsurprisingly resulted in a rapid reduction in UK private sector output during April. The latest IHS Markit/ CIPS Flash UK Composite PMI® (Purchasing Management Index) signalled by far the fastest decline in business activity since comparable figures were first compiled over two decades ago. At 12.9 in April, down from 36.0 in March, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit / CIPS Flash UK Composite Output Index – which is based on approximately 85% of usual monthly replies – indicated that the combined monthly decline in manufacturing and services activity exceeded the downturn seen at the height of the global financial crisis by a wide margin. Prior to March, the survey-record low was 38.1 in November 2008. (Personal note: The PMI is based on five major survey areas: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries, and employment. The ISM weighs each of these survey areas equally. The surveys include questions about business conditions and any changes, whether it be improving, no changes, or deteriorating. The headline PMI is a number from 0 to 100. A PMI above 50 represents an expansion when compared with the previous month. A PMI reading under 50 represents a contraction, and a reading at 50 indicates no change).
Air New Zealand announced it will not resume operation of its suspended Auckland-Buenos Aires and Los Angeles-London routes due to the deep impact of Covid-19 on forward travel demand. The airline has also taken the decision to postpone the commencement of its non-stop Auckland-New York service from 29 October 2020 until late 2021 at the earliest. Along with 95 percent of its international flying, Air New Zealand's Buenos Aires and Los Angeles-London routes are currently suspended through to 30 June due to government travel bans and low demand. Last year, the airline announced its plan to exit the Los Angeles-London route in October 2020 and in March brought forward the closure of its London cabin crew base.
Meet the 12-year-old who rode 36 hours on Zwift alongside Geraint Thomas - The Tour De France winner and double Olympic gold medalist earlier this week did 3 12 hour cycling sessions to raise money for the UK’s NHS (National Health Service), eventually earning £350,000. Alongside him rode a 12 year old Mak Larkin who by the end of the 36 hours of cycling had managed to cycle 740km (460 miles). Proud mum Lynsey told Cycling Weekly: “Lockdown was really getting to Mak, being that he was so eager to race this season as it was his first year at national level road and mountain bike cross country. “He saw Geraint’s 36-hour challenge and told us he wanted to do some of it with him for something to do and to support the NHS. He then told us a few hours later that he wanted to do the full challenge and wanted to raise some money himself. At time of writing his fundraising page (also for the NHS) stands at £5,772 (approx €6,605 or $7,111 USD). Cycling weekly has more here. A toddler has been able to hear for the first time after a groundbreaking remote switch-on of her cochlear implants - The BBC reports that audiologists in Southampton activated the devices for 18-month-old Margarida Cibrao-Roque via the internet as they are unable to see patients in person due to Covid-19 measures. Professor Helen Cullington said the procedure took "technical creativity". Margarida's father said it had "opened a big window" for his daughter. Margarida, who has been deaf since birth because she has Ushers Syndrome Type One, had received her cochlear implants in an earlier operation. Staff at the University of Southampton's Auditory Implant Service (USAIS) used specialist software and were able to monitor progress via videolink to the family's home in Camberley, Surrey. During the switch-on levels of electrical stimulation were gradually built up and Margarida's responses were constantly monitored. It is hoped her new cochlear implants will, over time, help her to hear and to communicate more easily. Margarida's mother, Joana Cibrao said the team were "just brilliant and made it happen" despite the lockdown restrictions. "The possibility of Margarida calling me mummy one day would mean the world," she said.
A timeline of events in the Indian subcontinent between 2035 and 2050.
The Great Indian War (2033-2038)
Rise of DUSS and PRT Beginning in 2033 and lasting until mid-2038, the Great Indian War was, without a doubt, the bloodiest continental conflict since the Second World War, resulting in the deaths of over sixty seven million people including military casualties and civilian deaths and over two trillion dollars in terms of property damage and instrumental in completely changing the face of both Indian and Asian geopolitics forever. What began as ethnic and socioeconomic strife back in the 20s would spiral into a full-fledged continental war within ten years and while most scholars and historians regard 2033, the year of the declaration of independence of the southern Dravidian states, as the start of the Great Indian War, some argue that the war had begun as early as 2027 in the manner of ethnic and religious pogroms in India, especially targeted towards southern Indians and Muslims. Reaching a wide audience and acquiring great popular support for their separation from India, both the Dravidian Union of Socialist States and the People's Republic of Telangana were successful in keeping their territories under control despite heavy assaults and slowly chipped away at more and more territory; the city of Bengaluru, the tech capital of India, would fall to the DUSS in November 2035, a massive blow to an already deprecated morale in the Indian Army. The fall of the city also led to the Congress, already having been elected by a thin margin, to be voted out and replaced by the BJP although this time under Amit Shah, the assassinated former Prime Minister Modi's personal friend and ally. The civil strife in Maharashtra finally finds a voice in the newly rejuvenated Republican Marathi Congress (formerly the Republican Party of India), championing Marathi nationalism, secularism, anti-casteism, and laissez-faire capitalism with a focus on creating a welfare state. The party does not take up arms, however, and continues with its stance of non-violent resistance. Negotiations regarding increased autonomy with Delhi fail as the Indian economy completely collapses and inflation goes sky high, further cementing the idea of secession among all active groups and in states that had previously remained pro-Delhi as the odds of a return to a 'normal India' shrink away. Indian GDP (incl. secessionists) in 2035: $6.4 trillion Indian GDP (incl. secessionists) in 2036: $4.9 trillion Indian GDP (incl. secessionists) in 2037: $3.7 trillion The Gandharan Spring Elsewhere, however, the archrival looks on while lapping up new and old investments and local growth as foreign investment meant for India is siphoned away to Pakistan, Southeast Asia, and even Central America. While civil strife continues in India, an entirely different movement strikes Pakistan - one demanding change, equality, and justice for all. While the Islamic Republic had slowly shied away from its Islamic morals and assumed a more pragmatic approach to world affairs and had significantly benefited from this new policy, it hadn't anticipated a social revolution to begin within its own borders. The thousands of coffee cafes established in its major (and liberal) cities became a breeding ground for new thought while the newfound prosperity through rapid economic development and industrialization led to a mass wave of 'wokeness' among the population. The annual women's march, coffee shop discussions, the emergence of Latin Urdu, and a new wave of Urdu poetry in the newly standardized Latin script became a part of a newly emerging unitary culture that transcended the bounds of ethnic nationalism and culminated into a cultural renaissance as people found new ways to express themselves, their words, and their art. Marches and protests to reduce military spending and the establishment of proper universal healthcare and social security became a norm as the country dived deep into what came to be known as the Gandharan Spring - named so after the ancient scholarly state of Gandhara. Economically, the Pakistani GDP exceeds $1.5 trillion in 2037 as new investments pour in and local industry, both large and small, prosper and the newly built planned city of Şahinpur becomes a major hub of technological innovation in Asia. Total Collapse But back in India, war was the only thing on the minds of the common people. Mass migrations across state and international lines further impacted local economies and the Dravidian cause became further ignited with the BJP's return to power, once again sparking ethnic conflict between the citizenry. Pogroms and killings continue as almost every state is plunged into anarchy over hyperinflation, ethnic and religious tensions, and the collapse of the Indian federation. Courts and the judiciary became irrelevant as the Constitution devolved into nothing more than a piece of paper and civil rights eroded away in the name of security and 'national integrity'. The Indian military, by now the only functional organ of the Delhi-based Indian government, becomes plagued with deserters and a collapsed morale among all ranks with nearly all but the staunchest of (Hindu) nationalists unwilling to fight to 'preserve the union'. Popular support for the Indian government is limited only to the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar at this point with almost all other states in active revolt or too preoccupied with anarchy and ethnic, religious, or political unrest. Both the DUSS and PRT have gained strategically important and economically vital territory with the former gaining control of Madurai, Coimabatore, and Kochi port as well as large swathes of countryside in its claimed territory while the latter gained control over Hyderabad, the economic and political capital of Telangana. But all was not rosy for the secessionists in the south either. With supplies running low and exhaustion high among its ranks, both the DUSS and PRT wanted, nay, needed, a quick end to this war. And that would come albeit not in a way they would've anticipated. In early July, Kashmir rose in uproar. While pro-Pakistani/independence militias had been active in the region since the departure of the British, this new uprising was far more organized and effective and an entire new front was opened up for the Indian government to worry about. This was also the first time the term 'Great Indian War' would be used to describe the civil strife going on in India. In response, the Indian military cracked down hard on the secessionists and news of continued war crimes in Kashmir would not be well-received by the neighbor to the west. Here's Johnny! True to its newfound commitment to 'neutrality', the Islamic Republic of Pakistan had remained neutral since the declaration of independence of the two southern secessionist groups. > On the eve of July 21, 2037 one of the few remaining squadrons of the Indian Navy intercepted an arms shipment from Djibouti en route to the southern port city of Kochi which had fallen into the hands of the DUSS and while it had been widely accepted that that country had been involved in this war in some capacity, the capture of the shipment finally sealed the deal for the hot-headed government of PM Amit Shah and the BJP. Although the shipment had decidedly come from Pakistan, the government in Islamabad wholly denied any involvement in the affair and called for 'peaceful dialog' between Delhi and the secessionists. Over the last two decades, the Islamic Republic had begun to care a lot about its international image, reflected in the permanent invitation it received from the United States to the G20, but the BJP, already seething with hatred for the country and holding it responsible for Narendra Modi's assassination all those years ago (that would ultimately snowball into the Great Indian War), would have none of it. The very next day, the Indian military conducted a strategic surgical strike against a Pakistani military base in Gilgit-Baltistan which it defined as a 'warning shot' for its western neighbor to not interfere in its internal issues. All it did was ignite a national fervor that couldn't be extinguished even with the coldness of the deepest abyss. The three Pakistani soldiers killed in the strike were awarded the Nişan-i-Haider, the highest military award in the country, and Pakistan entered the Great Indian War with a declaration of war against the Republic of India on July 22, 2037. The End The initial Indian strike against Pakistan killed three Pakistani soldiers. The counterstrike conduced by the Pakistan Army as its first response killed forty seven Indian soldiers and disabled two Rafale fighter aircraft. But that was only the start. During the kerfuffle between the two archrivals, major new developments would spring up across the rest of the subcontinent especially in the DUSS and Maharashtra. The Marathi Congress, beefed up with major donations (later revealed to be major Maharasthra-based businessmen such as Ambani and Tata as well as from anonymous accounts owned by REDACTED), took control of key buildings and locations in the state, including the very import Port of Mumbai, and declared independence from India as the Maratha Republic. In the south, ideological drift between the DUSS and PRT led to an end to an otherwise quite beneficial partnership between the two. The same ideological drift would begin to take hold within DUSS as well. Kerala, notable for its high standards of living and prosperity compared to other parts of India, began to wonder if it may be better off on its own just as Telangana had split to form a smaller but ultimately more manageable sovereign state. But the war had now escalated to a degree not initially imagined as the two competing megapowers of the region, India and Pakistan, finally came to a head. While Pakistan had built up to a parity with its larger and traditionally stronger rival, it was the exhaustion of Indian forces that would give the smaller state the primary advantage early in the war as the fresh and qualitatively superior Pakistan Army blitzkrieged into Kashmir with its tank fleets of high-end Haider main battle tanks and state-of-the-art Griffin III IFVs, capturing Srinagar, Jammu, and the Siachen Glacier within twenty four hours of the declaration of war. Already exhausted in fighting the upstart rebels in the region, the Indian Army personnel stationed in Kashmir quickly resorted to defensive tactics as the invasive force rapidly captured town after town, putting sixty thousand of the ninety thousand strong Indian force under siege within just the first three days of conflict. To the south, the Pakistan Navy destroyed the Indian naval bases in the state of Gujarat (the last pro-Delhi state on the western seaboard) and deploy a major submarine squadron in the region to deter any harassment from the massively depleted Indian Navy as it made its way south, breaking the blockade deployed against DUSS thus allowing relief aid (and weapons) to once again reach the rebels. But the actual intent of their move south would be revealed with the rapid landings of troops on the many tiny islands that made up the Lakshadweep union territory and the occupation of all government buildings and posts in the archipelago. By the end of the month, the Indian territories of Kashmir and the Lakshadweep islands had both been occupied by the invading Pakistani forces and a shockwave rocked the entire subcontinent to its core. The All India Trinamool Congress declared the independence of 'Kalinga Ganga' - a federation of the Indian states of West Bengal, Orissa, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh to 'oppose the fascist tendencies of the Delhi-based Hindi' with their capital in Kolkata. The Sikhs of Punjab declared the independence of the 'Khalsa' - the Sikh brotherhood worldwide - and called on all Sikhs to return home. In Delhi, Prime Minister Amit Shah handed power over to the military who declared martial law across the country, dissolved the Parliament, and declared the Constitution void. The Maratha Republic took this time to announce Pune, not Mumbai, as the capital of their nascent state. At this time, cracks within the DUSS also began to show as the state of Kerala announced its separation from the socialist federation, declaring the People's Republic of Keralam, a social democratic state based on the principles established by the Self-Respect Movement and the original Dravidar Kazhagam rather than the European-derived ideology of the DUSS. Elsewhere, the Pakistan Navy crossed by Sri Lanka - where it refueled and restocked - and entered the Bay of Bengal to open up a brand new front in this massive continental war. The Indian Army attempted five times to break the 'iron wall' - the Pakistan Army's three-thousand strong fleet of M1PK Matin tanks - but failed to make a dent, losing whatever was left of their morale and drive with every failed attempt. Indian formations were ripe targets for the Pakistan Air Force which maintained total air superiority in the war with its advanced aerial fleet of F-35s and AF-1 fifth generation plus fighter aircraft and this support allowed the Pakistanis to break into India proper on January 26, 2038 as they crossed the Punjab and seized control of the state for the newly declared Khalsa while the southern command crossed the Rann and captured all of the Kutch beyond the disputed border at Sir Creek. Already halved by personnel deserting and refusing to follow orders and to defections to the declared secessionist states, the defeated Indian Army was the first to capitulated following Pakistani landings on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the capture of Port Blair, Mayabunder, and Car Nicobar by Pakistani Marines. The Indian Air Force was the next to follow. Having been defeated in the air, the IAF wouldn't find peace on the ground either as the enemy flew sortie after sortie, wrecking almost every airbase with its advanced platforms such as the F-35 and the AF-1. The defections to DUSS, PRT, Kerala, Maratha Republic, and Kalinga didn't help either and whatever was left of the Indian air fleets was lost in a final sortie over the city of Chandigarh as Pakistani troops crossed into the state of Haryana and came within two hundred kilometres of Delhi. The last two states to secede from the Union were Goa and Garhwal, the latter of which claimed the northern Himalayan states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand as their rightful territory while the former declared the small coastal state of Goa as its rightful sovereign territory. With two hundred thousand personnel in Kashmir, one hundred thousand in Gujarat, and about five thousand split between Lakshadeep and Andaman & Nicobar, the Pakistan Army entered Delhi on July 2, 2038 and forced the surrender of the final vestiges of the Indian military high command (and government) thus bringing the Great Indian War to a conclusion. Treaty of Dharamsala On August 14, 2038, exactly ninety one years after the independence of the subcontinent from British colonial rule, representatives from all belligerents of the Great Indian War met at the Himalayan capital of the newly-declared sovereign state of Garhwal to sign a treaty to decide the future of the Indian subcontinent and to ensure that this war would be the last of its kind, at least in the Indian subcontinent. The following are the salient features of the Treaty of Dharamsala.
The Republic of India will be dissolved and its membership in all international organizations voided.
All nuclear weapons and facilities to manufacture more nuclear weapons will be dismantled.
No new sovereign state in the subcontinent will be regarded as the lawful successor state to the Republic of India and will seek memberships on their own merit.
All new sovereign states will commit to the ideals of democracy, justice, and freedom.
Besides these salient points, all representatives set out to solve any territorial disputes that might cause tensions in the future. Pakistan claimed full sovereignty over the union territories of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Lakshadweep, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands as well as the Kutch region of the state of Gujarat. Garhwal claimed full sovereignty over the Indian states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Khalsa (Republic) claimed full sovereignty over the Indian state of Punjab and the union territory of Chandigarh. Kalinga Ganga claimed full sovereignty over the states of West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, and Jharkhand. Kamarupa claimed full sovereignty over the Seven Sister States. The Maratha Republic claimed full sovereignty over the state of Maharashtra. The DUSS claimed full sovereignty over the states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka as well as Puducherry, Karaikal, and Yanam districts of the union territory of Puducherry. Keralam claimed full sovereignty over the state of Kerala as well as the district of Mahe. PRT claimed full sovereignty over the state of Telangana. Nepal claimed sovereignty over the state of Sikkim. And finally, Gangarashtra claimed full sovereignty over the states of Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar as well as the union territories of Delhi, Daman and Diu, and Dadra and Nagarhaveli. Helpful map of the Treaty of Dharamsala
Rebuilding and the Mandala (2039-2044)
The conclusion of the Great Indian War completely changed the face of the subcontinent and left a permanent mark on world history. The dissolution of India left its archrival Pakistan as the new regional power in South Asia, further contributing to its rise as a major power. Outmatching any of the successor states of its once powerful rival in all relevant terms, the leadership in Islamabad instead adopted a different approach towards cementing its role as the leader of a new subcontinent. Instead of going the route of Russia and forcing its less powerful partners into being subservient subjects as seen in the USSR, the leadership instead looked towards Germany's role in the European Union not just as a leadership role but as a bonafide future for the Indian subcontinent. But first, it had to solve the rapidly rising issue back home. In 2039, the Pakistani economy crossed the $2 trillion mark, solidifying its position as the largest economy in South Asia and among the largest in all of Asia as it overtook the severely damaged economy of South Korea following the end of the Second Korean War. Already being a 'permanent invitee' to the G20, it was also awarded India's now-vacant seat in the forum. But the renaissance that had sprung up during the Great Indian War had now become more than a social idea to be amused by. This Gandharan Spring had become the most important issue at home, inviting comparisons to the civil rights and counter-culture movements of the United States in the twentieth century. Pakistani cinema and television turned away from romantic dramas and towards something of more substance, tackling complex issues in a conservative, Islamic society such as drug use and pre-martial sex, women's empowerment and feminism, anti-state and anti-government feature films, and even films and dramas openly based on the Hindu heritage of the nation. Urdu literature, this time in the Latin script, saw a renaissance of its own and several instances of prose and poetry saw global success, works based on heritage and social issues rather than Islamic glory and prestige. Madrasahs became empty as parents chose functional skill over Islamic jurisprudence, attracting the ire of the mullahs who denounced the 'ever increasing degeneration' of the nation. But this was much bigger than them. The newly annexed territories of Jammu and Kashmir and the Andamans had brought in a, albeit small, but influential population of Hindus into the fold and they assimilated into this new Gandharan culture with ease. Elsewhere, the Great War had left the rest of the subcontinent in a sorry state. Mass immigration and uncontrolled inflation had broken local economies while warfare had taken a severe toll on infrastructure. As relief, Islamabad organized the Hindustan Fund - a locally raised sum to help the broken economies of post-war India to once again find their footing and become functional sovereign states instead of going the route of Afghanistan and becoming burdens. Of course, such a task could never be accomplished by Pakistan alone and while the state did deliver about $88 billion in aid to the post-war states of the subcontinent over five years, substantial aid from the European Union, the United States, and China was significant in rebuilding these broken states. It is estimated that the total aid offered to these economies was in excess of $500 billion, enough to lay a groundwork on which to build new foundations for new states. In 2043, the Pakistani economy crossed $3 trillion and accounted for almost half of the entire economy of the Indian subcontinent. But the Gandharan Spring had reached it breakout point and soon enough, the state would need to make some very crucial decisions. On January 1, 2044 about forty million people across the country conducted what would come to be known as the Great Gandhara March, this time demanding significant decreases in military spending, a strong and robust healthcare and social security system, equality and liberty regardless of race and religion or any other personal metric, and a full transparent democratic system, calls that were then addressed personally by the state leadership and would be answered in the following two months. On March 21, 2044 the state conducted a mass referendum to answer a singular question, threatened by a mass exodus of the younger, more progressive caucus of the People's Party if the demands were not addressed. "Should Pakistan retain Islam as its official religion? The answer was a resounding seventy eight percent no with an almost eighty five percent turnout. But this would only open the floodgates to a complete and total overhaul of the country. A second referendum would be held the next month asking the question, "What should Pakistan's official name be?" [ ] Islamic Republic of Pakistan [ ] People's Islamic Republic of Pakistan [ ] Republic of Pakistan With eighty four percent of all votes choosing the final option, the official name of the country was changed once again to the name it had been awarded with the Constitution of 1962: the Republic of Pakistan. More questions were asked in five more referendums as Sharia-inspired laws were removed the penal code including the hotly-contested and controversial blasphemy law (which was amended to include all religion with a dramatically lighter punishment rather than being completely removed). Laws made through the controversial Hudood Ordinance of former military dictator Zia ul-Haq were completely scrubbed and the death penalty finally abolished as the country came more and more into its form as a modern nation-state. In the Indian subcontinent, the gracious foreign aid brought the broken economies of the new states back to life as life began to settle into a normal routine once again but everyone knew that things would never, ever be the same as they once were. Several monuments were erected to honor the sixty seven million killed in senseless warring and brutality and all Indian leaders vowed to never allow a repeat of what had occurred again. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was redefined and rebuilt from the ground up to allow a better and more productive platform to settle disputes and to deter any future wars between new or old Indian states. A new age of cooperation would take over the subcontinent as nearly all states, regardless of ideology, became willing allies or at least established warm and cordial relations with one another, especially Pakistan and Gangarashtra. With the latter still being seen by some as the natural (if not recognized) successor state of the Republic of India as well as the strongest among all new country in the subcontinent, it was natural for the two to work towards establishing a regional environment conductive towards peace and dialogue and lead by example. With Gangarashtra toeing the line, it became quite easy for the modern Pakistani state to ensure the loyalties of other new states both to itself and to one another as it formulated a new plan to formalize the future of the region and to guide it towards a vision of peaceful cooperation, development, and shared dignity.
Indian Union (2045-2050)
Treaty of Panjim (2041) Post-war India was not that different from post-war Europe. Both destroyed by a dangerous ideology, it was necessary for all peoples to work together to ensure that such an event could never take place again. To accomplish this, the Europeans established several commissions and organizations to negate the extreme nationalism that had ravaged Europe. European integration was seen as the antidote to such an event occurring again and the same was done with post-war India. It was easy to point out the Hindu nationalist ideology as the force that tore the subcontinent to shreds and caused the deaths of almost seventy million people. To counter the ideology and to further promote, representatives from all successor states met at the Goan capital of Panjim in 2041 to discuss the future of the Indian subcontinent. It was identified that while being proud of your nation and heritage is no crime, its devolution into hatred for other peoples is an ideology that must be combated at all cost. As part of this treaty, all Indian states agreed to curb all extreme nationalist parties and groups and denounce unwarranted religious and ethnic aggression both publicly and in their actions, leading to major purges across the region but especially in Pakistan (which continued to weaken the military-mullah consortium), the DUSS, Gangarashtra, and the Maratha Republic. Treaty of Kandy (2042) An year after the conference at Panjim, the Indian leaders met once again to do something of more substance and significance, this time in the Sri Lankan city of Kandy. Discussing further integration in the Indian subcontinent, several proposals were put forward including a bid to host a major sports tournament together (recommended by Maharashtra), to invite all leaders of the G-20 to visit the Indian states (recommended by Kalinga Ganga), to create a legislative assembly - an Indian parliament, per se - to sign off on any new laws established by any Indian state (recommended by Pakistan) but finally it was a suggestion from the representatives of Keralam that all other attendees agreed upon. A university to be established anywhere in the subcontinent, ultimately agreed upon to be in the city of Alappuzha in Keralam, to focus entirely on Indian studies including history, geopolitics, economics, and to provide training to students who will embody the values of unity and peace among all Indian peoples. Funded by all Indian states (except for Garhwal and Kamarupa which cited financial issues), the university would be established later than year with construction on the urban campus completing in early 2044. The institute would train future leaders, diplomats, and bureaucrats from all corners of the Indian subcontinent. Treaty of Lahore (2044) With the College of Indian Studies in full swing and the economies of all Indian states now rebounding from the damage suffered during the Great Indian War, leaders from the Indian states met once again to discuss further integration, this time in the second largest city of Pakistan - Lahore. A historical capital of several empire that once spanned the entirety of the subcontinent, the millennia old history of the city offered a great insight into the long and varied history of the Indian peoples. This was also where the idea for an Indian Council, created to uphold human rights, democracy and the rule of law in the Indian subcontinent, would be conceived and later brought to fruition which would establish the foundations upon which the future Indian Union would be built. The Indian Council would become an official United Nations Observer party in 2047, an year after its establishment with the following members.
Treaty of Karachi (2046) Meeting in the largest and wealthiest city in the Indian subcontinent, the conference at Karachi would establish what would become the Indian Union in 2049. At the conference, especially called by the leaders of Pakistan, Gangarashtra, and the Maratha Republic, all members of the Indian Council would decide to establish the Indian Cooperative Council (ICC) - a customs union between all members of the Indian Council to promote further economic cooperation between all Indian states. All major languages of the Indian subcontinent such as Hindustani, Bengali, Marathi, Gujarati, Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam, Kannada, Punjabi, and Sindhi were recognized as official languages while English was declared the working language for all official business within the ICC. Two major organs of the council were established - the Indian Commission and the Indian Parliament. A third organ was created with the annexation of the Indian Council into the ICC with the first major amendment to the ICC charter through the Treaty of Delhi (2047). Treaty of Kolkata (2049) The second amendment to the ICC created (or brought back) the Indian Rupee, originally pegged to the Pakistani Rupee due it being the strongest currency among the sixteen member states of the ICC. The currency was adopted in Pakistan, Khalsa (Republic), Garhwal, Gangarashtra, Kalinga Ganga, Kamarupa, and the Maratha Republic the year it was introduced and by the Maldives and Telangana in 2050. Increased trade made possible through the single currency and the liberalization of trade between the Indian states led to rapid economic growth among all member states and further improvements in terms of HDI and per capita income. Treaty of Visakhapatnam (2050) The name of the Indian Cooperative Council was changed to the Indian Union (IU) and the three organs were located permanently instead of revolving annually. The Indian Council was relocated to the city of Dharamsala, the Indian Commission was relocated to the city of Panjim, while the Indian Parliament was relocated to the city of Alappuzha in Garhwal, Goa, and Keralam respectively. Encompassing agreements such as single market, common currency, customs union, free trade and movement, and a mutual defense treaty, the Indian Union has the potential to become one of the key players in global geopolitics and affairs if it manages to remain stable for at least the next ten years.
Peace in India (2050-?)
While it may seem like a little early to make such statements, the successful integration of post-war Indian subcontinent into a function Indian Union has led many to claim that we may finally have established peace in the most populous region in the world. But the sky's only the limit and there's quite a lot that is still to be done. Future Milestones To remain functional and retain its relevance, any organization must continue to evolve with time and conquer new frontiers for the prosperity of its stakeholders. While the Indian Union is a promising step towards a peace Indian subcontinent, many have already identified key milestones the union must tackle together including a unified space research organization that will be discussed at the special conference at Allapuzha in 2051, the expansion of the unified currency to all members of the Indian Union, and the possible expansion of the IU to include new members such as Myanmar and Afghanistan, both of whom have expressed strong interest in joining the union. But for now, Pax Indica has set in and how long that may last is anyone's guess.
[Expansion] The First Congress of the Hindu Rashtra
June 2027 As the Hindutva movement in India continues to turns its eyes abroad, it has become increasingly important for the various segments of the movement to keep in contact with one another. What was once a movement wholly contained within India has spread not just throughout South Asia, with Hindutva groups working in Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Nepal, but also throughout the world. With the United Hindu Party's successful overthrow of the weak Chinese puppet government in Suriname, Hindutva has entered the halls of government in a second country. This, if nothing else, is cause for celebration. The Supreme Court of India might have dealt a defeat to the BJP and its allies, but their success in Suriname proves one thing: they may have lost the battle, but they have not lost the war. To this end, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has taken it upon itself to organize the first annual Congress of the Hindu Rashtra. Held in New Delhi, the Congress is intended to serve as a meeting point for all of the different organizations of the Sangh Parivar, regardless of their nation of origin. Invites have been sent out to the numerous SP organizations within India, as well as their affiliates in Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Suriname. The venue itself is the prestigious Taj Palace in New Delhi. Located just a short drive away from Indira Gandhi International Airport, the Taj Palace is nestled in the bustling heart of New Delhi, just a block away from the University of Delhi and the Diplomatic Quarter while overlooking the Central Ridge Reserve Forest. No expense has been spared for the conference. The main hall, a massive 13,000 square foot room, has undergone renovations in preparation for the conference, with the north wall of the conference hall adorned by a massive matte painting of Akhand Bharat--the undivided Indian subcontinent--and her personification, Bharat Mata. Her image looms over every meeting in the space--a reminder of what it is that has brought them all together today. With so many important right-wing figures gathered in one place, the Taj Palace is an attractive target for Naxalites, Islamists, and other terrorist elements in Indian society. As such, security at the venue is extremely tight. In addition to the standard complement of police, the attendance of several key individuals from the Indian government (including Amit Shah, the Minister of Home Affairs) has led to a massive showing by the National Security Guards. For those not fortunate enough to have the protection of the Indian state, the RSS has ensured to have a significant paramilitary force on standby (which leads to some tension with the uniformed Indian personnel on site--especially on Day 3 of the Congress, when ten RSS members are alleged to have broken off from the Congress to harass the Muslim residents of a nearby neighborhood). Almost more important than the public events of the Congress, though, were the backroom meetings and breakout events. For the first time, RSS members from outside of India were given access to the brightest minds of the Indian Hindutva movement. Breakout meetings taught them the latest in organizing tactics, leadership, and propagandizing, ensuring that when they returned to their home countries, they would be well-equipped to grow the Hindutva movement. [S] The most important meeting, though, actually occurred several blocks away in an entirely different hotel, away from the press coverage of the main event. Here, representatives of the major organizations of the Sangh Parivar--largely the RSS, the BJP, and their foreign affiliates (Suriname excluded) met to discuss the issue of Akhand Bharat. Here, the leaders of the various institutions agreed that the existing collaboration between the nations of South Asia had brought unprecedented prosperity to the region. The unity of South Asia on the international stage had enabled them to negotiate massive free trade agreements, bringing millions of jobs to South Asia and dramatically improving the quality of life in the region, even while furthering their goal of marginalizing Muslims and homogenizing the Hindu population. But there gains might be temporary if not secured now. All it took was one bad election--one bad decade--and all their progress could be swept away. If they were to secure the gains of their movement, the time had come for them to work towards the creation of the new state. [/S] On the fifth day, the closing ceremony was headlined by Jagat Prakash Nadda, President of the Bharatiya Janata Party. In his speech, he spoke of the "...historical unity of the Hindu people... being recreated in this room" and called for "the elevation of the historical ties of the Hindu people--the Hindu Rashta." As the end, he was met with a standing ovation.
TL;DR: If you want to complete the Collections page, you don't need to collect every item. In fact, you can be missing a large portion of each type of collectible and still complete the node for that collectible type.
When the Age of Triumph reveal was presented, I panicked a little bit with regard to the Collections page. At first, I thought I might have to collect everything (as I didn't watch the live stream). While I have done my best to collect as many emblems, shaders, ships, and sparrows as possible, I am still missing some (mostly Trials of Osiris stuff, the Nanophoenix, and some Eververse stuff). Then, someone pointed out in a comment on the megathread that it is actually just a certain number of collectable items that need to be acquired, not everything. This was further reinforced by the summaries that came out after the livestream had finished. So, for the collectors among us who have not quite collected everything, I figured I would go through the list of collectibles and count them up. After all, when you have collected so many things, it becomes easier to count what you don't have than what you do have. Also, I was kind of curious about the rough proportion of items we would need to collect, as well as seeing how many items can no longer be collected. I do want to point out another post someone created with a checklist of the numbers we know so far. I have stolen borrowed the numbers from this list and from the previous comment and reused them below for how many of each type of collectible you need. Before getting into the numbers, I must point out the full lists of all collectibles that have been compiled so far:
Here is the count of how many items you need to get for the record book, and how many items there are:
Life is Fleeting: 75/107 ships
Slings and Sparrows: 35(?)/81 sparrows
Made in the Shade: 100/126 shaders
Flying Colors: 125(?)/214 emblems
Outlandish Arms: 55/77(?) exotic weapons or 55/53 (plus an unknown number for Age of Triumph)EDIT: It looks like we may be getting 16 new exotic weapons here with Age of Triump.
Outlandish Dress: 49/102(?) or 49/66(?) exotic armor
Quaint and Curious: 5000/5545 or 5000/5505 Grimoire Score
A more in-depth breakdown so that you know how I arrived at these numbers. Note: I have not factored in any new collectibles that will be coming with the Age of Triumph. Life is Fleeting: 75/107 ships
Taken King (5 ships, including Vienna Singer)
House of wolves (7 ships)
Factions (9 ships)
Strike (12 ships)
Crucible (18 ships, including 1 Trials of Osiris ship)
Raid (6 ships, including the mythical Nanophoenix ヽಠ▃ಠﾉ )
Treasure (9 ships)
Vendor (36 ships)
Promotional (1 ship)
Arcadia Class Jumpship, the starter ship
Eververse Trading Company (2 ships)
Rise of Iron (2 ships)
Slings and Sparrows: 35(?)/81 sparrows
SRL (9 sparrows)
6 can be purchased with silver dust (can still be aquired)
3 from SRL quest/record book rewards, one of which was PS4 only (can no longer be aquired unless you stil have the quests)
Crucible (3 sparrows)
Raid (2 sparrows)
Basic (10 sparrows)
Vanguard (3 sparrows)
Upgraded (24 sparrows)
Promotional (8 sparrows)
3 from pre-order or playing during a certain time (can no longer be aquired)
3 from quests (can still be aquired)
EV-34 Vector Infinite, from Refer-A-Friend Questline (can still be aquired)
S-41 Poison Apple, from SRL quest (can no longer be aquired unless you still have the quest)
Eververse (12 sparrows)
10 from Dawning Treasure (can still be aquired)
Gjallarwing, from silver dust (can still be aquired)
EV-53 Glimmergold, from collecting a full set of The Dawning Armor (can still be aquired)
The Taken King (1 sparrow)
Rise of Iron (9 sparrows, including 1 Trials of Osiris sparrow)
Made in the Shade: 100/126 shaders
The Taken King (16 shaders)
House of Wolves (12 shaders, including 3 Trials of Osiris)
The Dark Below (3 shaders)
Factions (12 shaders)
Activities (22 shaders)
SRL (14 shaders)
Raid (8 shaders)
Vendor (15 shaders)
Promotional (10 shaders)
2 from redemption codes (can still be aquired)
SUROS Minimalist, which was a TTK preorder bonus but now everyone has it (can still be aquired)
The Old Guard, given to Year 1 veterans (can no longer be aquired)
3 from Collectors Edition of The Taken King (requires money)
Infinite Link, from Refer-A-Friend Questline (can still be aquired)
Blacksmith(requires a rare code)
Prayer of Nepal, from donating during the Nepal Aid event (can no longer be aquired)
Holiday (10 shaders)
Rise of Iron (3 shaders, 1 from Trials of Osiris)
Flying Colors: 125(?)/214 emblems (maybe 150/214, it is hard to tell)
Class Starter (9 emblems)
Class (6 emblems)
Community (6 emblems) (Note: I do not have any of these, so I am mostly guessing about what is under this category)
5 from the Bungie forums before they wre moved (can no longer be aquired)
Mentor's Badge, from becomming a mentor (probably can still get this?)
Vendor (58 emblems)
Factions (18 emblems)
Crucible (6 emblems)
SRL (6 emblems)
Raid (11 emblems)
The Dark Below (4 emblems)
House of Wolves (9 emblems)
The Taken King (23 emblems)
Promotional (39 emblems)
11 from redemption codes (can still be aquired)
SUROS Fire, which was a TTK preorder bonus but now everyone has it (can still be aquired)
Vanguard Honor, which was a Destiny pre-order bonus that might have been given to everyone during a certain time period (can no longer be aquired)
Be Brave, given to Year 1 veterans (can no longer be aquired)
Laurea Prima, from Year 1 Moments of Triumph (can no longer be aquired)
3 from buying collectible pins from the Bungie Store (requires money, not currently available but might come back)
3 from buying soundtracks (requires money, still available)
5 from limited time sale, promotion, or donation, including 7-7 Ad Infinitum, Eye of Eternity, Sign of Duality, Pride of Nepal, and Resurrectionist(can no longer be aquired)
Inner Circle, from the original limited edition of Destiny (can no longer be aquired)
Inner Chamber, from playing four of the last six games developed by Bungie (can no longer be aquired)
4 from playing during a certain time frame, including Sign of the Elders, Founder's Seal, Sign of the Founders, and Rising Light(can no longer be aquired)
From Here, The Stars, from subscribing the Bungie mailing list (can still be aquired)
Sign of the Infinite, from Refer-A-Friend Questline (can still be aquired)
Can't Stop the Signal, from streaming for 77 hours (can still be aquired)
Sign of Containment, from being featured on the Moview of the Week (can still be aquired)
Sign of Opposing Will, from defeating Bungie in a Crucible Match (can still be aquired)
Song of the Spheres, from participating in the Alpha Lupi experience (can no longer be aquired)
Union of Light(requires a rare code)
Holiday (4 emblems)
Rise of Iron (6 emblems)
Trials of Osiris (9 emblems, some of which can no longer be aquired)
Outlandish Arms: 55/77(?) exotic weapons or 55/53 (plus an unknown number for Age of Triumph) I'm not quite sure if having the year 1 version and the year 2 version of a weapon will count twice. If it does count twice, the current total is 77. If it only counts once, then it would be 49 plus Vex Mythoclast, Necrochasm, Pocket Infinity, and Iron Gjallarhorn, for a total of 53 unique weapons. It is also possible that there will be new year 2 weapons introduced by the Age of Triumph update. EDIT: It looks like we may be getting 16 new exotic weapons here with Age of Triump. That solves that mystery!
Year 1 Primary (11 weapons)
Year 1 Special (11 weapons)
Year 1 Heavy (5 weapons)
Year 2 Primary (20 weapons)
Year 2 Special (16 weapons)
Year 2 Heavy (14 weapons, including Iron Gjallarhorn, which can no longer be acquired)
Above figures do not count year 2 versions of Vex Mythoclast, Necrochasm, or Pocket Infinity, which currently only have year 1 versions. They also do not count Fate of All Fools, as most of us cannot acquire it.
Outlandish Dress: 49/102(?) or 49/66(?) exotic armor I'm not quite sure if having the year 1 version and the year 2 version of a piece of armor will count twice. If it does not count, then
Hunter (34, or 22 for Year 2)
Year 1 Helmets (5)
Year 1 Gauntets (3)
Year 1 Body Armor (2)
Year 1 Boots (2)
Year 2 Helmets (7)
Year 2 Gauntets (5)
Year 2 Body Armor (3)
Year 2 Boots (3)
Year 2 Class Items (4, including 1 from Collector's Edition of The Taken King)
Titan (34, or 22 for Year 2)
Year 1 Helmets (5)
Year 1 Gauntets (3)
Year 1 Body Armor (2)
Year 1 Boots (2)
Year 2 Helmets (7)
Year 2 Gauntets (5)
Year 2 Body Armor (3)
Year 2 Boots (3)
Year 2 Class Items (4, including 1 from Collector's Edition of The Taken King)
Warlock (34, or 22 for Year 2)
Year 1 Helmets (5)
Year 1 Gauntets (3)
Year 1 Body Armor (4)
Year 1 Boots (0)
Year 2 Helmets (7)
Year 2 Gauntets (5)
Year 2 Body Armor (5)
Year 2 Boots (1)
Year 2 Class Items (4, including 1 from Collector's Edition of The Taken King)
Quaint and Curious: 5000/5545 or 5000/5505 Grimoire Score PS4 max Grimoire score is 5545, and Xbox One max Grimoire score is 5505 (including the hidden ghost in Echo Chamber that you can technically get)
So, as you can see, without even counting the additional collectibles that will be added as a part of the Age of Triumph update, the collectibles page is achievable even without having to collect everything. There will be a very healthy margin of stuff that you can skip collecting and still get full credit for the Collections page. For ships, you only need about 75% of the ships. For Sparrows, you only need about half of them (so you don't even need to get any of the SRL sparrows). For Shaders, you need about 80%. For Emblems, you need about 60%-70%, though there are a large number of limited shaders that are no longer available or were tied to purchases. Of course, Age of Triump is going to be adding A LOT of emblems, so this won't be a problem. With exotic armor or weapons, it is a bit harder to know much you can collect, as it isn't clear if Year 1 and Year 2 versions of the exotics count separately. Exotic weapons might be a bit difficult if year 1 and year 2 versions of the same weapon does not count twice, though we do know that the Vex Mythoclast and Necrochasm are coming back, with a couple more possibly coming. Grimoire shouldn't be that hard to achieve, especially given that we'll probably get more Grimoire in the update. So, relax. If you have been collecting aggressively so far, you will probably be fine.
Edit: Thank you to the generous guardian who gilded my post! This is my first submitted post, and I am happy that I both got to the front page and got gilded on my first time! Also, I'm glad that the discussion below has been so constructive. There are a lot of great comments below with good points! Edit 2: Someone jokingly pointed out Iron Gjallarhorn and Fate of All Fools. Somehow, I had forgotten about these, even though I had unintentionally counted Iron Gjallarhorn when going through my kiosk. I guess that makes it even more likely that year 1 and year 2 weapons are going to count, as without Iron Gjallarhorn (and Fate of All Fools), there are only 52 unique weapons. Edit 3: The last livestream for AoT has confirmed that we are getting exotic adept elemental primaries for every raid. I haven't seen a final number, but by my math, with four primaries for each raid and four raids, that means 16 new exotic weapons are coming. That will make it a lot easier to hit the 55 exotic weapon goal!
[Expansion] A new capital and some consolation prizes
Key to the conception of a Maghreb Union of equals was that the unification process could not be perceived as one country swallowing another. For this reason the capital could not be in Algiers, nor could it be in Rabat or the economic capital of Casablanca. These cities were facing a significant downgrade in status in favor of an obscure location, and were thus targeted for a series of investments which could at least partially make up for imminent losses to the public sector.
THE TWIN COLOSSI
Along the cost of Casablanca next to the El Hank lighthouse, a 250 meter bronze statue of Moroccan scholar Ibn Battuta will be built. The man will be depicted holding out a large map of his medieval travels from Morocco to Tanzania to Russia to China. At Cape Matifo at the eastern edge of the Bay of Algiers, a second 250 meter bronze statue will be built depicting the pirate and later sultan Barbarossa holding out his scimitar in a threatening posture. Both statues will have the dual function of rebroadcasting free satellite internet to up to 10000 people visiting the monuments or nearby neighborhoods, supported by the launch of two satellites worth $150 million developed by the Agence Spatiale Algerienne.
CASALANCA STOCK EXCHANGE
Already the second-largest stock exchange on the continent after Johannesburg, the integration of somewhat meager listings from Algiers will further cement this position, and careful implementation of financial reform promises to take Casablanca to further heights. Such ambitions necessitate a new and more grandiose building. The new building will be built directly to the west of the old building, encompassing two entire cities blocks currently used by warehouses. Four 150 meter office towers will circle the lot, with the interior space of the blocks serving as a large glassed-in botanical gardens. Scattered around this park area will be 20 meter frosted glass screens projecting information, split into distinct areas themed after ecological regions of the Maghreb:
Saharan desert – Doum palms whose trunks are wrapped with desert gourds will surround the area reserved for the bonds market
Aquatic – Large seawater tanks filled with Mediterranean tapeweed and red algal flowers will surround the area reserved for the derivatives market
Montane – Atlas cedars interspersed with argan trees trimmed into hedges will surround the area reserved for the common stock market
Mediterranean – Large pots filled with giant heather between planted olive trees will surround the area reserved for the foreign exchange market
In each instance, wireless connectivity will allow people to trade stocks directly from their botanical garden area of choice, and a number of berths scattered around will be available for placement of privately-owned computers with algorithms for analyzing information as it appears on the screens and conducting automatic transactions.
ALGIERS DIPLOMATIC QUARTER
Utilizing the high geographic concentration of foreign embassies, much of the El Biar suburb of Algiers will become a gated community. Government agencies such as Algeria’s ministries of Energy, Mining, and Justice will vacate their lots, and the limited number of private businesses and homes will be bought out, leaving only the 91 embassies of Algiers behind the walls. A number of countries will be invited to take up residence in the vacated buildings:
Countries with an embassy in Rabat: Guatemala, Panama, Dominican Republic, Paraguay, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Togo, Equatorial Guinea, Central African Republic, Djibouti, Thailand, Australia, Malaysia, Brunei
Countries with no embassies in the Maghreb: Haiti, Jamaica, Belize, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Bolivia, Uruguay, Guyana, Suriname, Iceland, Ireland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Eritrea, South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, Malawi, Zambia, Botswana, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Burma, the Philippines, Laos, Cambodia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, New Zealand, and any Caribbean, African island, and Pacific island states
It is recognized that funding may be the reason why a number of poor or small nations do not maintain diplomatic missions to Maghreb nations, and these nations will not be charged for their presence. All gates providing motor vehicle access to the diplomatic quarter will be equipped with a powerful electromagnetic field. Those entering and leaving the compound will need to pass declared electronic devices through a mail slot avoiding the field to be picked up on the other side, allowing the field to wipe the data of all covertly-placed devices as the vehicles pass through. All embassies will have walls retrofitted with copper sheeting, transparent metal films placed over the windows, and external doors which lock into place around all four sides, preventing outside surveillance of communications. Secure wired networks will be available inside the buildings connecting independently to the outside world – if one nation chooses to put its information security at risk, it will not affect the others. OUJDA-MAGHNIA CAPITAL DISTRICT With Casablanca and Algiers able to claim the titles of financial capital and diplomatic capital, the core functions of the Maghreb Union government can be relocated to a central location. The cities of Oujda, Morocco and Maghnia, Algeria lie directly opposite to each other along one of the major border crossings between the two countries, separated by 25 kilometers of road with no more than fifty residents. This empty area between the two cities will become the site of a new supranational district hosting much of the federal government of the Maghreb Union. A number of new buildings will enter construction at this location with a total price tag of approximately $4.5 billion, splitting the supranational district into two distinct pieces. An eight lane road accessible by the public, with four parking garages and a bus station, will offer access to the extensive grounds of the Musée Zouj Beghal on one side of the road and the Grand Mosque of the Maghreb on the other. At the terminus of this road will be walking paths leading to publicly-accessible portions of the National Assembly and Supreme Court. The second piece of the supranational district will not be connected to the first, accessible only by elected officials. A system of roads around the back of the district will connect the parallel portion of the National Assembly intended only for legislators, with a similar system in place for the Supreme Court regarding the presence of judges and plaintiffs. These heavily guarded back roads will also serve as the only access to the Presidential Palace. New facilities are as follows:
MUSÉE ZOUJ BEGHAL
Utilizing classical period Ottoman architecture, the national art museum will be built with 80000 square meters of gallery space spread across eight domed wings. Each dome will appear to be ceramic in accordance with the imitated style, but will actually be a projection onto glass. Open 24 hours per day, at night the projection fade to allow the museum’s interior to be lit by the night sky – stars initially, though as the city grows this light source will eventually be replaced by urban light pollution. Due to the large amount of intended gallery space, the museum will be opened in eight different segments between 2034 and 2042 as enough art is acquired. Archaeological artifacts and artwork from the Maghreb, Africa, and greater Islamic world will be prioritized, as all museums within these regions are a minimum of an order of magnitude smaller. By virtue of being the only one in its class, the Musée Zouj Beghal intends to establish itself as the central hub for cataloging artistic achievements in Africa. Approximately 15,000 works of art will be directly commissioned by the museum to give its first several wings a base of material, and after that it is hoped momentum will organically arise as artists seek to have their work exhibited.
GRAND MOSQUE OF THE MAGHREB
With a total of 80000 square meters of internal space paralleling the national museum, the Grand Mosque will be the largest in Africa, capable of hosting approximately 500,000 people. Built in the style of a classical Moroccan kasbah, six interior courtyards in two rows of three will lead visitors to a series of three tall minarets at the back. With two spiral minarets at a height of 250 meters and one rectangular at a height of 300 meters, the Grand Mosque will break the previous record – held by Morocco itself – for the tallest minarets in the world. The two lesser towers will have observation a, but the tallest will remain inaccessible, used only for the electronically broadcast call to prayer. Each interior courtyard will have a different muezzin able to lead distinct religious services. These will not be officially organized, nor will specific courtyards be reserved for specific muezzin, in accordance with the secular stance of Maghrebi governments.
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AND SUPREME COURT
Built in the style of a Roman amphitheater with a retractable roof, the National Assembly is intended as the site of the new legislature of the Maghreb Union. A separate public entrance takes visitors to a balcony to observe government proceedings at any time they wish. The pressure of more than five legislators in their seats will automatically activate a camera network broadcasting discussions and actions taken at the Assembly. Two smaller seating areas elevated above the others around the edges will also be accessible by members of the public in order to present petitions or otherwise address the legislature. The Supreme Court will follow the same general plan, with controlled access for approved personnel in parallel to uncontrolled public access to an observation balcony. Its design, however, will be a cube-shaped building built in the Baroque style.
A tall berm will be built around the margins of a farm in order to conceal the Presidential residence from the public. Though otherwise a modest structure, the heavily guarded 20 acre compound will be self-sufficient in food. A mixture of grains, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products produced on site will supplement five years of frozen meat and other food present at any given time. An underground tunnel will lead from the palace to a discreet exit in the Tell Atlas mountains south of the city in the event that an emergency evacuation becomes necessary.
Excerpts from Ivan Illich's essay, "Shadow Work" (1981). (Part 2).
Sources: https://mafiadoc.com/shadow-work_59d072d61723ddd7865befd7.html http://www.philosophica.ugent.be/fulltexts/26-2.pdf (2.4 Megabyte pdf) Why the struggle for subsistence was so suddenly abandoned and why this demise went unnoticed, can be understood only by bringing to light the concurrent creation of shadow-work and the theory that woman, by her scientifically discovered nature, was destined to do it. While men were encouraged to revel in their new vocation to the working class, women were surreptitiously redefined as the ambulant, full-time matrix of society. Philosophers and physicians combined to enlighten society about the true nature of woman's body and soul. This new conception of her "nature" destined her for activities in a kind of home which excluded her from wage-labor as effectively as it precluded any real contribution to the household's subsistence. In practice, the labor theory of value made man's work into the catalyst of gold, and degraded the homebody into a housewife economically dependent and, as never before, unproductive. She was now man's beautiful property and faithful support needing the shelter of home for her labor of love . The bourgeois war on subsistence could enlist mass support only when the plebeian rabble turned into a clean living working class made up of economically distinct men and women . As a member of this class, the man found himself in a conspiracy with his employer - both were equally concerned with economic expansion and the suppression of subsistence. Yet this fundamental collusion between capital and labor in the war on subsistence was mystified by the ritual of class struggle. Simultaneously man, as head of a family increasingly dependent on his wages, was urged to perceive himself burdened with all society's legitimate work, and under constant extortion from an unproductive woman. In and through the family the two complementary forms of industrial work were now fused: wage-work and shadow-work. Man and woman, both effectively estranged from subsistence activities, became the motive for the other's exploitation for the profit of the employer and investments in capital goods . Increasingly, surplus was not invested only in the so-called means of production. Shadow-work itself became more and more capital-intensive. Investments in the home, the garage and the kitchen reflect the disappearance of subsistence from the household, and the evidence of a growing monopoly of shadow-work. Yet this shadow-work has been consistently mystified. Four such mystifications are still current today :
The first comes masked as an appeal to biology. It describes the relegation of women to the role of mothering housewives as a universal and necessary condition to allow men to hunt for the prey of the job...This economic distinction of sex-roles was impossible under conditions of subsistence. It uses mystified tradition to legitimate the growing distinction of consumption and production by defining what women do as non-work.
The second mask for shadow-work confuses it with "social reproduction". This latter term is an unfortunate category that Marxists use to label sundry activities which do not fit their ideology of work, but which must be done by someone - for example, keeping house for the wage-worker. It is carelessly applied to what most people did most of the time in most societies, that is, subsistence activities...
The third device that masks shadow-work is the use of economic measurements to explain behaviour outside the monetary market . All unpaid activities are amalgamated into a so-called informal sector. While the old economists built their theory on the foregone conclusion that every commodity consumption implied the satisfaction of a need, the new economists go further: for them, every human decision is the evidence of a satisfying preference...
A fourth mask is placed on shadow-work by the majority of feminists writing on housework. They know that it is hard work. They fume because it is unpaid...Although their woman-oriented outlook provides new insights into heretofore hidden reality, their movement-specific commitment tends to cloud the key issue: it obscures the fact that modern women are crippled by being compelled to labor that, in addition to being unsalaried in economic terms, is fruitless in terms of subsistence.
... This transmogrification of housework is particularly obvious in the United States because it happened so abruptly. In 1810 the common productive unit in New England was still the rural household. Processing and preserving of food, candlemaking, soap-making, spinning, weaving, shoemaking, quilting, rugmaking, the keeping of small animals and gardens, all took place on domestic premises. Although money income might be obtained by the household through the sale of produce, and additional money be earned through occasional wages to its members, the United States house-hold was overwhelmingly self-sufficient. Buying and selling, even when money did change hands, was often conducted on a barter basis. Women were as active in the creation of domestic self-sufficiency as were men. They brought home about the same salaries. They still were, economically, men's equals. In addition, they usually held the pursestrings. And further, they were as actively engaged in feeding, clothing and equipping the nation during the turn of the century. In 1810, in North America, twenty-four out of twenty-five yards of wool were of domestic origin. This picture had changed by 1830. Commercial farming had begun to replace subsistence farms. The living wage had become common, and dependence on occasional wage-work began to be seen as a sign of poverty. The woman, formerly the mistress of a household that provided sustenance for the family, now became the guardian of a place where children stayed before they began to work, where the husband rested, and where his income was spent...[Women] vanished from traditional trades, were replaced by male obstetricians in mid-wifery, and found the way into the new professions barred. Their economic disestablishment reflected societies' commitment to the satisfaction of basic needs in the home by means of products created in wage-labor that had moved away from the household. Deprived of subsistence, marginal on the labor-market, the frustrating task of the housewife became the organization of compulsory consumption. The existence which is becoming typical for men and children in the 1980's was already well known to a growing number of women in the 1850's. ... Add the rising number of unemployed to the increasing number of people kept on the job only to keep them busy, and it becomes obvious that shadow-work is by far more common in our late industrial age than paid jobs. By the end of the century, the productive worker will be the exception. ... Shadow-work and wage-labor came into existence together. Both alienate equally, though they do so in profoundly different ways. Bondage to shadow-work was first achieved primarily through economic sex-coupling. The 19th century bourgeois family made up of the wage earner and his dependents replaced the subsistence-centered household. It tied the femina domestica and a vir laborans in the thralldom of complementary impotence typical for homo economicus. This crude model of bondage to shadow-work could not suffice for economic expansion: profits for capitalists are derived from compulsory consumers just as power of professionals and bureaucrats is derived from disciplined clients. Both capitalist and commissar profit more from shadow-work than from wage-labor. The sex-coupling family provided them with a blueprint for more complex and more subtly disabling forms of bondage to shadow-work. This bondage today is effected essentially through social agents empowered for diagnosis. Diagnosis literally means discrimination, knowing-apart. It is used today to designate the act by which a profession defines you as its client. Whatever allows a profession to impute a need for dependence on its services will do quite well to impose the corresponding shadow-work on the client. Medical scientists and pedagogues are typical examples of such disabling professions. They impose the shadow-work of service-consumption on their clients and get paid for it out of the clients' income, either directly or through taxed monies. In this fashion, the modern professionals who induce care push the pattern of the work-bonding modern family one step further: through wage-labor, people in "caring relationship" jobs now produce precisely those frustrating things which women in the XIX century family were originally compelled to do or make for no pay whatever. The creation of professionally supervised shadow-work has become society's major business. Those paid to create shadow-work are today's elite. As housework is only the most visible tip of shadow-labor, so the gynecological engineering of the housewife is only the most impudent cover for society-wide diagnostics. For example, the sixteen levels of relative degradation which define the classes of drop-outs from the educational system assign disproportionate burdens of shadow-work to society's lower and larger cohorts, and do so much more effectively than sex or race ever could have done. ... The study of women under the impact of industrialization can be understood as a beachhead into another no-man's-land of history: the forms of life that are typical only to industrial society yet remain invisible, as long as this society is studied under the assumptions about scarcity, desire, sex or work that it has secreted. The discovery of this shadow-realm, which is distinct both from that of subsistent popular cultures and from that of political and social economy, will make those whom Andre Gorz calls "post-proletarians" into subjects of history...The war against popular cultures and vernacular values could never have succeeded unless those to be divested of subsistence had first accepted their enclosure into distinct spheres and thereby had been divided. ... Our society forces its victims to become cooperative objects of oppression through care. Its condition for ordinary happiness is sentimental concern for others that ought to be helped, saved or liberated...This sentimentalism is a dishonesty for which there is no known substitute in a society that has ravished its own environment for subsistence. Such a society depends on ever new diagnosis of those for whom it must care. And this paternalistic dishonesty enables the representatives of the oppressed to seek power for ever new oppression.
*Center for Intercultural Documentation, Cuernavaca, Mexico*
 The diagnosis of "woman". G. LASCH (New York Review of Books, Nov. 24, 1977, p. 16) Recent studies of "profesionalisation" by historians, have shown that professionalism did not emerge in the XIX century in response to clearly defined social needs. Instead, the new professions themselves invented many of the needs they claimed to satisfy. They played on public fears of disorder and disease, adopted a deliberately mystifying jargon, ridiculed popular traditions and self-help as backward and unscientific. And, in this way, created or intensified - not without opposition - a rising demand for their services. An excellent introduction to this process with good bibliography is BLEDSTEIN, Burton J. The Culture of Professionalism. New York: Norton, 1976. EHRENREICH, Barbara and ENGLISH, Deirdre. For Her Own Good: 150 Years of the Expert's Advice to Women. New York: Anchor 1978, give the history of the professional control over women. Page 127: "The manufacture of housework .... after mid-century ... with less and less to make in the home; it seemed as if there would soon be nothing to do in the home. Educators, popular writers and leading social scientists fretted about the growing void in the home, that Veblen defined as the evidence of wasted efforts ... i.e. conspicuous consumption .... Clergymen and physicians were particularly convincing in their effort to provide their services so as to make 'home life the highest and finest product of civilisation"'. On the medicalisation of female nature, I found particularly useful: BARKER-BENFIELD, G.J. The Horrors of the Half-Known Life: Males Attitudes toward Women and Sexuality in the XIX Century America. New York: Harper and Row, 1976; ROSENBERG, Rosalind. "In search of Woman's Nature: 1850- 1920." in Feminist Studies, 3, 1975; SMITH-ROSENBERG, Carroll. "The Hysterical Woman: Sex-roles in XIX Century America." in Social Research, 39, 1972, pp. 652-678; McLAREN, Angus. "Doctor in the House: Medicine and Private Morality in France, 1800-1850." in Feminist Studies, 2, 1975. pp. 39-54; HALLER, John and HALLER, Robin. The Physician and Sexuality in Victorian America. Urbana, Ill.: Univ. of Illinois Press, 1974; VICINUS, Marta. Suffer and be Still: Women in the Victorian Age. Bloomington: Indiana Univ. Press, 1972; LEACH, E.R. Culture and Nature or "La femme sauvage". The Stevenson Lecture, November 1968, Bedford College, The University of London; KNIBIEHLER, Y., "Les médecins et la 'nature feminine' au temps du Code Civil." in Annales, 31. année, no 4, juillet-aôut, 1976. pp. 824-845.  DUDEN, Barbara. "Das schöne Eigentum." in Kursbuch, 49, 1977, a commentary on Kant's writings on women.  From Mistress to Housewife. See note 7, BOCK und DUDEN. "Zur Entstehung der Hausarbeit im Kapitalismus." DAVIS, Natalie Z. Society and Culture in Early Modern France. Stanford Univ. Press 1975. might be a good starting point for somebody unacquainted with the issue, or CONZE, Werner. Sozialgeschichte der Familie in der Neuzeit Europas. Stuttgart, 1976. DAVIS, Natalie Z. and CONWAY, Jill K. Society and the Sexes: A Bibliography of Women's History in Early Modem Europe. Colonial America and the United States. Garland, 1976, is an indispensable working tool. As a complement, I found useful ROE, Jill. "Modernisation and Sexism: Recent Writings on Victorian Women." in Victorian Studies, 20, 1976-77. pp. 179-192, and MUCHENBLED, Robert. "Famille et histoire des mentalités, XVI-XVII siècles: état présent des recherches." in Revue des Etudes Sud-Est Européen (Bucarest), XII, 3, 1974. pp. 349-369, and ROWBOTHAM, Sheila. Hidden from History: Rediscovering Women in History from the XVII Century to the Present. New York: Vintage Books, 1976. The un-numbered page following p. 175 of this second edition, contains a valuable selected bibliography on the change of women's roles in Britain during the early Victorian period. The following two articles question to which degree the traditional periodisation, categorisation and theories of social change can be applied to recent women's history: BRANCA, Patricia. "A New Perspective of Women's Work: A Comparative Typology." in Journal of Social History, 9, 1975. pp. 129-153, and KELLY-GADOL, Joan. "The Social Relations of the Sexes: Methodical Implications of Women's History". in Signs, 11, 1978, pp. 217-223. TILLY, Louise and SCOTT, Joan. Women, Work and Family. New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston, 1978, provides good bibliographical tips for further study. On the new status of women due to the changes that occurred in America in the first quarter of the XIX century, LERNER, Gerda. "The Lady and the Mill Girl: Changes in the Status of Women in the Age of Jackson." in American Studies vol. 10, no 1, 1969. pp. 5-15, is concise and clear. The Oxford University Women's Studies Committee has brought out two collections of seminar papers, valuable for the history of house work: ARDENER, Shirley, editor. Defining Females: The Nature of Women in Society. London: Croom Helm, 1978; and BURMAN, Sandra, editor. Fit Work for Women. London: Croom Helm, 1979. Each contribution is well annotated. Not only in the home female work became, in a unique way, distinct from what men do. Also where women were employed for wages, new kinds of work were created and primarily reserved for women. HAUSEN, Karin. "Technischer Fortschritt und Frauenarbeit in 19 Jh.: zur Sozialgeschichte der Naehmachiene." in Geschichte und Gesellschaft, Jg. 4, Heft 4. 1978. pp. 148-169, describes how the sewing machine that could have made the household more independent from the market, was, in fact, used to increase exploitative wage-labour defined as female work. DAVIES, M. "Woman's place is at the Typewriter: The Feminisation of the Clerical Labor Force." in Radical America, vol. 8, no 4, July-Aug. 1974. pp. 1-28, makes a similar analysis of the use of the typewriter around which an unprecedented army of secretaries was organized. On the reorganization of prostitution around the services of medicine and police, see: CORBIN, Alain. Les filles de noce: misère sexuelle et prostitution aux XIX et XX siècles. Paris: Aubier Coll. Historique, 1978. On the prehistory of the ideal of the housewife see HOOD, Sarah Jane R. The Impact of Protestantism on the Renaissance Ideal of Women in Tudor England. Thesis PhD Lincoln, 1977. From abstract: "The feminine ideal of wife and mother appears for the first time among Northern humanists in the Renaissance. Studia Humanitis were the key to the successful fulfillment of the domestic role as learned wife to a companion husband, and intelligent guide to education of children. This upper class ideal replaced medieval ideal of vergin or courtly Lady. The protestant ideal of calling made the domestic ideal the vocation of all women in Tudor England. All women were now called to the married state, and could make no finer contribution than to bear children. The home-maker replaced the Renaissance companion. The lowliest household asks a worthy contribution to godly society. But when all were called to matrimony and motherhood, then women were called to nothing else. To choose other, was to deny their holy vocation. Thus the domestic ideal became dogmatized." One of the principle means by which society imposed recently defined work on women through its agents, the caring professions, is the ideal of "motherly care". How mothering became an unpaid, professionally supervised kind of shadow-work can be followed through: LOUX, Françoise. Le jeune enfant et son corps dans La médecine traditionnelle. Paris: Flammarion, 1978; BARDET, J.P. "Enfants abandonnés et enfants assistés à Rouen dans la seconde moitié du XVIII siècle." in Hommage à Racel Reinhard, Paris 1973. pp. 19-48. Flandrin comments: "La seule étude permettant actuellement de mesurer les dangers de l'allaitement mercenaire pour les enfants de famille."; CELIS, J., LAGET, M., et MOREL, M.F. Entrer dans la vie: naissances et enfances dans La France traditionnelle. Paris, 1978; OTTMUELLER, Uta. "Mutterpflichten" Die Wandlungen ihrer inhaltlichen Ausformung durch die akademische Medizin. pp. 1-47. MS 1979, with an excellent selective bibliography; LALLEMENT, Suzanne et DELAISI DE PARSEVAL, Geneviève. "Les joies du maternage de 1950 à 1978, ou Les vicissitudes des brochures officielles de puériculture." in Les Temps Modernes, Oct. 1978. pp. 497-550; BADINTER, Elisabeth. L'amour en plus. Paris: Flammarion, 1980.  POULOT, Denis. Le sublime ou le travailleur comme il est en 1870, et ce qu'il peut être. Introduction d'Alain Cottereau. Paris, François Maspero, 1980. A small factory owner of Paris, himself a former worker, in 1869 tries to develop a typology of "workers" and how each type behaves towards his boss and his wife.  0AKLEY, Ann. Woman's Work: The Housewife, Past and Present. New York, Vintage Book, 1976, deals in the 7th chapter extensively with three of these myths.  NAG, Moni. "An Anthropological Approach to the Study of the Economic Values of Children in Java and Nepal." in Current Anthropology, 19, 2, 1978, pp. 293-306, gives also general bibliography on the economic imputation of value to family members.
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मार्जिन ट्रेडिङ के हो?(Margin Trading)Share market
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