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The Taklimakan social network offers users to create valuable crypto-training content, share their trading predictions and signals, and provide it to less experienced crypto investors through a paid access system, receiving passive income from their knowledge.
The Taklimakan social network offers users to create valuable crypto-training content, share their trading predictions and signals, and provide it to less experienced crypto investors through a paid access system, receiving passive income from their knowledge.
The Taklimakan social network offers users to create valuable crypto-training content, share their trading predictions and signals, and provide it to less experienced crypto investors through a paid access system, receiving passive income from their knowledge.
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Hey all, There’s a mob that I’ve been following for over a year now. They charge $298USD per month, and like many others they promise easy success and riches beyond your wildest dreams. However, theses are the things that they say, and I have not been able to find a genuine review from a subscriber. Have you ever paid for signals, and if so what success have you had?
This is a new post after some interest in a comment why I believed the S&P is going to 1700. Update 3: I am going to limit my answers in the comments guys; as the post becomes more popular it is becoming more diluted with snark etc. I don't expect anyone to follow my opinions; I just want to share one aspect of why I am making the trades I am. I maybe wrong. Random walk and all that.. Original Disclaimer: This is based on historical precedence and we are in unprecedented times but, with history as our guide a strong argument can be made for the S&P to decline to a level that is currently inconceivable.I have disclosed all my positions near the bottom. Update 1: Slightly long; happy to be challenged in the comments, it is late in the UK (2am) so may tidy it up and add more references and charts tomorrow.Update 2:Have expanded the post to answer as many comments and requests for references wherever possible and tagged in the requestors.
Intro: Are we in a recession?
If you believe so, or that we are heading into a recession then there are four things needed to support a genuine rally out of a recession
Improving economic health indicators
Accurate pricing reflecting the end of the recession and tempered optimism
We are missing 2 out of those 4 criteria; the overwhelming monetary and fiscal policy (world-records) are compensating for lack of positive indicators and volatile and bullishpricing.
What do you mean by pricing?
It can be argued that the current price of stocks is not discounting for the acute and likely chronic harm to consumer sentiment and spending power. For example; the UK clothing retailer Next Group closed their bricks and mortar stores (share price increased 4%) then they cancelled all online shopping (share price increased 3%) and finally they cancelled all orders with their supply chain (shares leapt 12.8% during the rally.) There is the massive amount of second, third and fourth order effects that this one company does to the UK economy (and Turkish factories). Suppliers, shipping, design, marketing etc all cancelled and the staff furloughed. This is one example but the indexes are currently full of similar examples and some analysts are ringing the alarm bells.
Lazard Asset Management are concerned that the pandemic “will persist longer than many investors suspect and that the economic damage will be deeper and potentially longer-lasting”.
Reddit is quick to mention that stonks only go up but there is some truth to that sentiment at present since any negative factors are dismissed as being priced in and all positive factors are heralded as a cause for stocks to rally. If priced in was accurate then we would not see record-beating market rallies back to back. 10% volatility swings over 48 hours is the very definition of not priced in. There is evidence to suggest that, well, the bullish sentiment is wrong and mainly because it is retail investors being taken for a ride whilst funds re-balance and offload. Retail traders "buying the dips" is normally a contrarian signal, meaning that it's time to sell. This section is for u/lntoIerant in response to a comment.
Edit to answer some comments about this portion thus far.
Do retail investors move the market?
No, they act as a sentiment indicator that the market is reaching a peak absurdity. Similar sentiments have preceded major recessions in the past. When you hear a layman offering stock tips or googling how to buy stocks then we are reaching the precipice of a depression. new market entrants are not the same as traditional retail investors.
Are retail investors buying in greater volumes?
That is hard to say because the majority of retail trades are done off-book. The trades are mixed in with portfolio moves or using the retail service which is a dark pool.
Are retail investors dumb money?
Well, no. Kind of. It depends. This white paper indicates that retail investors are more knowledgeable, more profitable and better informed than previously thought. However, a lot of their trades, as mentioned above, are done off-book as part of a larger portfolio and they simply lose a fraction of a basis point because market timing is not that critical.
What does this have to do with the S&P dividend and the EPS?
Major indexes are comprised of stocks that pay handsome dividends; normally 2% yield a year. The companies have reached their limit of growth (HSBC haven't discovered 5 million new customers and Shell are not finding new fossil fuels) so investors hold the stock for income-seeking reasons. The FTSE 100 was priced in to generate £89 billion in dividends for 2019 and £90 billion+ in 2020. That has largely collapsed. The only companies that pay dividends are those taking on debt to do so like Shell. And they have; a 10Bn credit line to maintain dividends. The Bank of Englandhad to slap 5 UK banks from issuing dividends at this time. That means that their primary valuations as income-generating stocks are questionable... ...especially since the dividends are not expected to return to the 2020 levels for another 10 years now. Edit to add: This portion is taken from the market report by BNY Mellon. You can see the chart here. The analyst is John Velis of BNY. Thanks to u/flash_aaaah_ahhhhh for prompting me.
“By 2021, the market expects dividends per share for the S&P 500 to be down to under $38 per share (a staggering 41 per cent drop from recent highs of approximately $63 per share) and then to start slowly rising again. Going out 10 years to 2030, the expectation is that dividends will just about recover to pre-Covid-19 levels.”
Main body: Onto the S&P
In 2021 the market expects the dividends per share for the S&P to be reduced to $38 per share. That is priced in and common knowledge. That is a 41% drop from the recent highs of $63 a share and seems alarming for income seeking investors since we are not expected to recover to those prices for 8-10 years. Source. But DataTrek have noted that we are still currently trading at 21X the trailing 10 year earnings of $122 a share. Dividends per share normally don't fall as far as earnings per share. But they are inverted at present. For the S&P to be trading at 2,650 level (or even higher) it means the market does not believe the pandemic or recession will have any long-term damage. That puts us squarely at odds with items 3 and 4 in our list of factors needed to exit a bear market.
In other recessions, including 2008, the dividend price per share drops approximately 12-15% but the earnings per share drop by considerably more; as much as 85%. That means that in 2008 financial crisis and subsequent bear market; the dividends per share dropped by a lower percentage amount than the total index value drop. You can see that in this chart here.
The market drop was approximately 56% and the Dividend drop was 14%
The market drop was 56% and the earnings drop was 85%
Right now, we have the reverse. Dividend share drop in this market is 41% (which is chilling) and market drop was approximately only 30% and rallying heavily back to the mid-20's only. That makes no financial sense unless the assets were being propped up by buyers...
S&P ATH: 3386 to 2488 on April 4th (26.5% drop)
S&P ATH Dividend: From $63 expected to $38 (a 41% drop)
S&P ATH EPS:
If the S&P follows the same playbook at 2008-9, then we would expect to see levels of around 1400 at the bottom but that seems extremely bearish expecting that this crisis is worse than 2008. If previous indications hold true, then we would expect the S&P to drop by approximately 50-60%ish at the true bottom to reflect the 41% decrease in expected shares plus additional discounts and negative market sentiment. In reality, we are probably likely to pull back to between 13X and 15X trailing average which puts the S&P between 1600 (low side) and 1800 (high side).
You are putting a lot of faith in a re-run of the 2008 crisis
I am. No doubt about it. After October 2008, stocks fell for another four months, piling up 40% of losses before the recently ended bull market began in March 2009.
New market indicators
Since I wrote this post, the DJIA was up over 4% and closed down on the day. Thank you to theTwitter feed of Jim Bianco for this: Since 1925 (95 yrs!), up more than 4% and closing down on the day has happened only one other time ... Oct 14, 2008 (Tsy Sec Hank Paulson forced the banks to take TARP money). The S&P 500 was up 3.5% at the high and closed down on the day. Since April 1982 (daily H,L,C began) has happened three other times...Oct 3, 08, Oct 14, 08, and Oct 17, 08. This mkt continues to trade like Oct 08. It was six months and another 25% down before the low. Bezinga are also playing up the 2008 similarities.
Why is bullish sentiment so wrong?
The negative reports are so wildly negative that the almost defy belief. We are dealing with insane numbers way beyond our traditional frame of reasoning. This is topped only by the insanity of the scale of quantitative easing. Less than a year ago, a small movement in the non-farm payrolls would lead to a 2-3% move in the markets; now we are hitting 700K jobs lost, a truly ugly number and the market rallies hugely. Future economic students will study this to try and understand what was happening. In the space of weeks the majority of the Western economies have swung to being effectively state-sponsored, centralised economies and no one really knows how to unwind these positions. It is impossible to reconcile being a bull with a centralised state economy and blue-chip stocks that refuse to pay dividends but the share price remains at the same levels as when they paid a 2% yield. The UK forecast is for the deepest contraction since 1900. Business surveys have shown activity crashing faster in March than during the financial crisis. The Office for National Statistics has published experimental research on the impact of Covid-19 on the economy.
With entire swaths of the economy having shut down “traditional forecasting methods become irrelevant”, warned Chiara Zangarelli, economist at investment bank Nomura.
Michelle Girard, economist at NatWest, said that while there was huge uncertainty about the precise magnitude of the contraction in gross domestic product in the second quarter, “there is little doubt that it will be off the scale” That is not a bullish sentiment. It means markets are acting irrationally since fundamentals are being dismissed as priced-in. In reality; nothing is priced in.
I am long VIX to 78 (expected by end of Apri but ideally by 24/4)
I am short India to 7800 (expected by 15/05)
I am short S&P to 2200 (expected by mid-late of May)and will be to 1810-50
I am short Dow to 19000 (expected by mid-late May)and will be again to 17000
I am short FTSE to 5200 and will be again to 4800 (expected by mid-late May)
No current active hedges / all spreads due to being tax free profits in the UK
Further spread betting the swings to the upside where I can to scalp
I am holding a portfolio of streaming services and gaming companies
I am holding Microsoft and Disney
I own a very small quantity of crypto, primarily XRP
Edit to add: So, your entire thesis is totally destroyed if companies keep paying dividends?
Yes. In a nutshell. But something else will be destroyed; the western taxpayer and future growth.
If companies are using 0% interest rates to take out loans and then transferring those loans a small 1% of the populace via dividends; that bill will come due to the citizen taxpayer and/or shareholder of the future
If companies are taking federal or governmental aid to furlough workers but still paying dividends to shareholders? That bill will come due to the citizen taxpayer and effectively is an even more extreme form of socialising market losses; it means that we truly can never have a correction since the top 1% will lose. Not lose the investment itself, which can rebound, but will simply lose the yield on an investment and only for a short period of time. If we have reached a point where that is considered unacceptable then we truly are living in a new socialist, centrally planned world.
Here is Tesco defending their decision today of £635m in dividends...despite receiving considerable amounts of VAT, Rates and Rental relief from the UK Government (£585m)...they have done an admirable job and are profitable but this market signal and their stated reasons for doing so are alarming.
CEO said 'every pound we receive [in rates relief] will be invested in ensuring Tesco is able to support British shoppers...' That is tax payers paying a subsidy to a free-market company for the ability to shop...and also... Mr Lewis said that the needs of savers and pension funds also needed to be considered in the debate around dividends. “We’ve thought long and hard about our responsibilities here . . . we are in a strong position to pay out for the benefit of those people
Edit to add: What about the FED and stimulus
u/tauriel81 and u/aliveintucson325 and u/100PERCENTYOLO_VEQT OK - to truly test my own assumptions; here is my argument AGAINST my position. The Fed have not quite printed money as Reddit loves to meme. They have issued liquidity and central banks worldwide have allowed banks to relax their requirement to hold reserves of cash. That injects money into the business world by allowing lending and borrowing to continue. It also reduces theoretical risk since the models are back within tolerance. When the time comes they will remove the credits gradually without causing hyperinflation. They do this by paying banks not to lend back into the system by holding a % of their assets at the Federal Reserve. So they pay the banks but the banks keep the deposit at the Fed and don't pass on the liquidity to potential borrowers..gradually and sustainably. https://www.aier.org/article/powells-new-monetary-regime/ That means the borrower of the future (home purchasers, entreprenuers etc) will have very few credit facilities available so RIP to the long-term economic growth. We also have unprecedented government support for citizens. The largest social security welfare plan since WW2, especially in Europe. If you believe that the Western economies can weather this storm using the bridging devices by central banks then it pays to dollar cost average into the market and keep buying the dips as a retail investor. Lots of buoyant news from European nations and China about the slowing pandemic is overwhelming the negative leading and lagging economic indicators about economic data. If you believe the economy can return to normal within 36 months, then it pay to be bullish and invest. If you are day-trading, swing-trading or short-term options trading then the overwhelming market moves are likely to crush people as the system flexes under lots of volatility. You are also likely prioritising the negative news and technical analysis in your filter bubble and de-prioritising the positive news particularly when that news is fiscal or monetary policy since those things are dry, boring and incomprehensible half the time. So you miss Fed backstops critical bankingi and instead hear UK Prime Minister in intensive care. If you want to know what is going on...
Look at the short term fundamentals
Zoom out. Re-look.
Zoom out to an even longer timeline. Re-look.
Zoom out to an even even longer timeline. Re-look.
Zoom out to an even even even longer timeline. Re-look.
Decide where you making a prediction. Plan your trade, trade your plan. How do the FED take money back out of the economy? They FED purchase the security initially to then sell it back to the asset-holder later. So the balance of credit-deficit merely swaps but by paying a small premium on the excesses that they hold, they can cushion the inflation or deflation of the currency. So, they effectively give the bank liquidity and then remove that liquidity later by passing the asset back...but also provide a small premium to cushion the blow; 50% of the premium is then held on Federal Reserve books so that the market is not flooded with new money. The FED previously reduced their balance sheet from $4.4 trillion to $3.7 trillion but it remains to be seen if they can unwind a position of this size.
2 out of the 4 necessities for exiting a recession are not present
S&P currently trading at 21X the trailing 10 year average dividend
In previous recessions a 50% drop in the market was accompanied by a 15% drop in dividends
Market analysts expecting for a 41% drop in dividends but only trading a 26% drop in the market. At present the S&P dividend per share drop is 41% but the S&P is rallying back to less than 20% drop...whilst dividends are not expected to return to 2019 levels of income for 8-10 years
In previous recessions the dividend per share drop is much less than the overall index drop
S&P highly overvalued, completely inverted when compared with dividend expectation and market dividend pricing
S&P pull back to 1600-1800 over short-medium time frame (1 month-6 months).
If market history is to be believed then 1400 is not unfeasible based on percentages but you have to be hoping for a total economic destruction for this to happen.; expect a total Governmental response if this happens.
If S&P continues to rise then it indicates companies are taking on debt or other instruments to pay dividends rather than innovate, upgrade or consolidate their business position which some are (Shell etc).
Economic data will eventually overpower the stimulus and the Coronavirus is not priced in; hardly anything is priced in and analysts are now saying so publicly.
dxDAO aims to power DeFi protocols through decentralized governance
I found this article on internet. It's repost of it to help educate people about all DXDao advantages: These are positive and necessary steps for DeFi. The new governance structures are intended to help coordinate across community stakeholders and make better decisions. These dynamics are influenced by the issues covered in Dose of DeFi, but I believe they deserve their own focused analysis. Govern Thisaims to educate token holders and make them better voters. Emphasis will be placed on specific governance proposals and relaying community governance discussions on forums and weekly calls. Governance is a coordination technology that has helped countries and companies build more than the sum of their parts. Blockchains are also a coordination technology, but for computers, not humans***.*** Govern Thiswill track the development of the melding of these two over the coming years. Like governance,Govern Thisis a work in progress. I would appreciate any feedback on format, topics covered or any other suggestions to make the newsletter better. Just hit reply. The first issue ofGovern Thisis below. Pleaseclick here to subscribe. Thanks for reading, Chris 📷 dxDAO aims to power DeFi protocols through decentralized governance Gnosis launched a long-awaited DEX last week with batched auctions for low-liquidity trade pairs. The front-end, Mesa.Eth.Link is owned and operated by dxDAO, a decentralized collective that hopes to power other DeFi protocols. While dYdX does not have any specific governance plans (yet), this tweet from dYdX founder Antonio Juliano is a common approach to governance. 📷Antonio Juliano @AntonioMJuliano3) 0x should focus less on governance in the short term. It’s way more important to first build something with a large amount of adoption that’s worth governing December 6th 2018 3 Retweets62 Likes The tweet at the end of 2018 was in response to 0x and its native token, ZRX. The project was popular but the token had no use case outside of governance. This governance strategy – build now, decentralize later – is widely accepted in the space and is perhaps best exemplified by the A16Z’s Jesse Walden’s post, “Progressive Decentralization: A Playbook for Building Crypto Applications”, which the A16Z-backed Compound has essentially implemented (more in the section below). dxDAO, on the other hand, maintains that decentralization must come at the beginning or else the core team and investors will have an outsized influence on the project in formal (token voting) or informal ways (dictators for life). Background dxDAO was launched in May 2019, spun out of a collaboration between Gnosis and DAOstack over managing the DutchX platform. dxDAO’s key governance design is separating financial rights to the DAO (DXD) from voting power over the DAO (Reputation). It used an Edgeware-style lock drop to distribute reputation to stakeholders in May of last year. Any user could lock up ETH or an accepted ERC-20 for a month and receive Reputation, which are voting rights in dxDAO, even though it is not a token and cannot be transferred. Over 400 unique Ethereum addresses participated in the distribution scheme. Gnosis went through a pretty extensive process in July 2019 to “step back” from its involvement in the DAO, and since then, the community and dxDAO have aligned behind a mission of “putting the ‘De’ in Decentralized Finance”. Following on last week’s launch of Mesa.ETH.Link, dxDAO is conducting a fundraiser or (“DAICO”?) to help fund its new slate of DeFi products, including a prediction market platform (Omen) and a privacy-centric DeFi dashboard (Mix). Project launch is typically when a project is most centralized. Execution is hard and direction and accountability are important. dxDAO’s approach will be an interesting counterexample to the “decentralize later” trend and may provide insight into new governance strategies. Click here for more information about the dxDAO fundraiser. Here’s what is on the dxDAO docket this week:
There are no explicit plans yet, but the widely held assumption is that the COMP distribution will be determined by the interest earned and paid by users on the protocol since its inception. This is a clever way that only incentivizes more use of the protocol and is hard to game because interests accrues over time. But the question still remains, what will the COMP community look like and what values will it espouse? Can emergent cultures arise out of Silicon Valley too? Here’s what is on the Compound docket this week:
Governance AMA with Compound CEO Robert Leshner - Robert answered a variety of questions on ETH2.0 (staking yield is of great interest), Chainlink (Compound’s oracle system is better), contentious forks (Compound would signal a preference on chain) and how Covid-19 changed his mind about remote work. They also announced…
Proposal: Add USDT Support – announced on the AMA, USDT was approved by Compound users in a poll last September but had yet to be included. The proposal to add the largest stablecoin in the world is the first test for the new governance portal. (Very) notably, the proposal does not allow USDT to be used as collateral, as Compound currently does with wBTC. It’s not clear if Compound wants to be in the largest stablecoin market or not and underscores the governance challenges of straddling both worlds.
Head of Community Rich started off with a new meme for governance: the path from intent to implementation, discussing how forums, polls and other initiatives are designed to capture the intent of the community, and then “empowered people” are tasked with implementing that, foreshadowing upcoming changes.
Half of the call was devoted to the addition of WBTC as collateral with representatives from WBTC, Bitgo and CoinList in attendance. CoinList’s WBTC announcement gives WBTC the type of liquidity needed for Maker’s auctions (“can redeem WBTC in less than 2 minutes and burn less than that”). Most of the discussion revolved around the circular loop from BTC->DAI in times of high volatility. While there was some concern that WBTC liquidity was dependent on acceptance as Maker collateral, most on the call seemed to support the addition. The strongest support seemed to come from the Maker Foundation’s market making team, who is reportedly the largest market maker for WBTC. There’s more in the Maker forum thread.
State of the peg – Vishesh’s overview (graphs can be seen here) showed that the peg had come down to $1.01x area but most of the discussion was around the debt ceiling. At the time of the call it was 4 million away from its 90m debt ceiling. Vishesh advocated for a more programmatic lifting of the debt ceiling. Update: Dai hit the 90m debt ceiling Friday evening ET. Should help the peg.
Single Collateral Dai shutdown – the process has begun. A poll passed with May 12 as the official SCD shutdown. Just yesterday, an executive just passed yesterday to make the MKR oracle fee-less, which will help with migration. Many in the community think the migration of debt from SCD will do more than enough to restore the peg. 13 MIPs and 2 sub proposals – Core to the new Maker governance process is the “Maker Improvement Proposals (MIPs), which are modeled off of BIPs (for Bitcoin) and EIPs (for Ethereum). The two sub-proposals are to appoint the Smart Contracts Team and assign Charles St. Louis as the MIP editor. The 13 MIPs are listed below:
By and large, the MIPs codify many of the informal Maker governance processes. There is currently a request for comments period (MIP forum) and there will be an informal poll on Monday, April 27 on whether to proceed with the 13 MIPs and 2 sub proposals. If it’s a “Yes”, than an executive for an official ratification vote would start on May 1 and lasts for 4 days. If it passes, the official governance cycle will begin and the rest of the MIPs will likely be approved from May 4 – 6. Other Governing Things
Synthetix trials incentivzation program to encourage ETH shorts to balance debt position Link
PieDAO community call on audit and post imBTC actions Link
Coinbase Custody double downs on DeFi governance Link
Terra considers punishing validators that don’t vote Link
0x governance proposal to decrease epoch length to 7 days Link
That’s it! Feedback definitely appreciated. Just hit reply. Written in Brooklyn where it rained all day. No euchre today, but yesterday was epic. Govern This is written byChris Powers. Opinions expressed are my own. All content is for informational purposes and is not intended as investment advice.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PALM BEACH CONFIDENTIAL and CRYPTO INCOME QUARTERLY (aka: tech royalties)
the TL;DR is that if you want to share either of these publication / services with me and a few others contact me at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) REVIEW OF BOTH PALM BEACH CRYPTO PUBLICATIONS: This will be a brief overview of the difference between the two Palm Beach Group Cryptocurrency Publications. The first publication is called the Palm Beach Confidential. This is the original crypto newsletter dating back to the beginning of 2016. During that year Teeka Tiwari made incredible calls on buying ETH at $9 and later Ant Shares (now NEO) at just 13 cents. Both went up to $1,400 and $250 respectively. Lives were changed almost overnight with these incredible gains if you just piggybacked his advice. So why another crypto publication called the Crypto Income Quarterly? Isn’t the Palm Beach Confidential enough for such a niche market as cryptocurrency investment? I don’t think it is. Let me explain the two publications in some detail so that you can decide what is best for you. THE PALM BEACH CONFIDENTIAL: The Confidential is more for the investor that wants to buy and hold projects with the expectation that they will increase in value over time. Think similar to buying Amazon stock many years ago. Except with crypto sometimes buying a certain threshold of tokens or coins actually give you access to services and privileges. This is how crypto investments differ greatly from traditional investments. You have some coins which are aiming to be only a better MONEY (imo probably the most important use case). Think Bitcoin BTC here or Monero. It tries to do one thing and do it well. Other tokens unlock access to investment information and signals, or access to lower rates on loans, or give you cash back for using their crypto credit card. These are only a few of the more simple examples of the capabilities of tokens/coins through something called; smart contracts. There really is no limit to what tokens/coins combined with smart contracts can do. As you can imagine this makes investing in these projects all the more difficult to assess because of all the moving parts and various a capabilities and privileges unlocked by each coin (or aka: token). By the way; “coins” usually do one thing (again think Monero / Bitcoin as money) where as “tokens” usually sit on top a smart contract platform like Ethereum and give more leeway to get creative with - tokens are also not usually trying to emulate money, although it’s possible that these too could be seen as a type of currency. Confused yet? lol. Stay with me here! If you were to go to coinmarketcap.com you will see a listing of currently over 2,000 coins and tokens or: projects. Now how can you possibly sift through this information alone and assess the quality of the projects or the teams involved. How much time and study and research would it take you to even have a shot at picking winners in this complex space? This is where the Palm Beach publications come in. The Palm Beach Confidential is more hands on and a bit of hand holding - and imo better for novice crypto investors. Note I didn’t say novice investors - I said novice crypto investors. I would never say it’s a publication for crypto noobs, but it is more newbie friendly. Most of the coins are pure investments. You buy / you hold / you sell sometime in the future or you ride it to incredible gains and beyond. Each of these coins or tokens is usually trying to solve a complex problem. The Confidential include the monthly flagship newsletter which usually has at least one new coin pick backed with incredible work and research analyzing all aspects of the project, the need and future demand for the token, the problem it solves, the team involved and the partnerships they have lined up or pending. It’s a treasure trove of fundamental information that any aspiring venture capitalist should have. They also provide buy/sell alerts on short term ideas (not too many of these unless in full bull run) and tell you when to cash out some of your profits when certain profit objectives are reached. Teeka calls this ‘skimming some cream from the top’. As a trader I use the Confidential to help me make buy and sell decisions. But I still wouldn’t label it as trading services - it’s more geared towards investors. In 2019 and 2020 Teeka has been absolutely killing it with his picks. He came out with the first 5 coins to 5 million report and then recently the final 5 coins to 5 million and now also added; The 2020 Phenomenon playbook. The coins in these reports are crushing it with gains of 800% and 1200% - the numbers just don’t lie. Teeka gets some flack online for being an over the top salesman - and I have to agree he’s sometimes over the top. But let’s face it, so are these gains. So from a subscriber’s perspective, the only people hating on Teeka are the ones without these reports and the gains they deliver. This much I can assure you! CRYPTO INCOME QUARTERLY: aka: TECH ROYALTIES The Crypto Income Quarterly is the newest Palm Beach crypto publication which started in the beginning of 2019. The reason it exists is because crypto is so complex and certain tokens and coins not only grant special access to services and discounts etc, but they provide income! That’s right many coins now are paying 9% - 40% dividends (or as Teeka calls them “tech royalties”) on simply putting the coin in a wallet and holding them. This process of locking up your tokens for a certain period of time is called “staking”. In a world of negative interest rates there is no incentive to save. But in the more honest and transparent, non inflationary world of cryptocurrency there is ample opportunity to create coins that literally enable rich income streams to flow unto the holders. As you can imagine these projects enable us as investors to achieve the holy grail of investing: passive income. But not only is it hard to find the best staking coins in a sea of cryptocurrencies it’s also hard to make sure all your ducks are in a row and that you are staking correctly in order to earn your staking rewards aka; dividends. Palm Beach lays this all out for you in easy to follow step by step instructions so that even a child could do it. You will have simple step by step guides to walk you quickly through the process so that you can start earning immediately. Furthermore it’s been said that staking is really the future as it does not require even a fraction of the electricity to mine and secure like POW (proof of work) coins like Bitcoin does. So staking coins are likely to become more and more popular over time. The Crypto Income Quarterly will make sure that you don’t miss a beat in this rapidly expanding niche of crypto investing. Soon it will not be a niche at all but quite possibly the dominant protocol for all of crypto. ETH for example is even moving from POW to POS (proof of stake). So this should tell you something. WRAPPING UP The combination of both these crypto reports ensure that you will not miss the “Amazon” or “Netflix” of crypto whether they be the latest POS dividend coin - or whether is be a new coin running on a new and revolutionary protocol. As great as the FANG companies are - they are absolutely boring in comparison to what some crypto projects are striving to achieve. Crypto is a lot more than just about magic internet money - it’s about new solutions in a new world powered by blockchain and enabled by something that never existed prior to this era: smart contracts. Investing in crypto can be extremely overwhelming, but Palm Beach Group really breaks down crypto into easy to understand and digest ways while giving you the exact step by step directions you will need to not screw things up and lose your money. I suggest unless you have many years in crypto, that you not try to go this alone. You will likely be parted with your money or make a fatal mistake. There are countless stories out there! Don’t be a casualty. If you have some experience in crypto but have made a lot of bad calls trying to follow the latest trends on twitter or reddit, well then you are probably getting what you paid for and buying someone else’s bags. Everyone pumping coins online has an agenda - remember that, so be careful! If you have the money to purchase the Palm Beach Confidential and/or Crypto income quarterly I think it’s money well spent. But the publications are priced at out of reach prices. Which is why I’m offering to share my lifetime subscription along with my personal friendship and expertise in the space should you need it. As a successful crypto investor even before palm beach I can provide you with yet another perspective on a complex market. Because while Teeka is a good guy I can assure you he won’t be there for you. He has far too many subscribers. And while Palm Beach means well- their customer service agents will NOT help you out in crypto. In fact I have personal experience that shows they are mainly about up selling subscriptions and little more. This is simply the truth. If you expect to pick up the phone and talk to a crypto expert at Palm Beach like Teeka or myself when you are in a pickle - good luck. These lower level employees don’t know anything about crypto and are simply script readers / followers and if you are in a tight spot you’re going to be on your own. So, that’s all I have for you today. I hope I was helpful in helping you understand the difference between the two Palm Beach Group crypto publications and services. Hopefully you can use this as a guide to help you make the right decision on which publication is good for you. But be sure to hit me up if you’d like to discuss a package SHARE deal that will give you ME and both publications. After all, isn’t this “the share economy”? If interested only DIRECT MESSAGES to me here (or at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])) will be answered. Thank you.
$PYLNT Pylon Network - updated summary with recent news 🔥
You may have seen the previous post on PYLNT, courtesy of https://www.reddit.com/useJigsaaw33/. I'm now updating it because things are starting to move nicely - the long-awaited tokenomics document was released yesterday, and there's a team AMA on Thursday or Friday (it's up for community vote). Here is an updated version of Jigsaaw33's post, followed by a summary of the tokenomics update. Pylon Network (PYLNT) has max supply of 633858 only and sitting at a low marketcap of 770k approx. The marketcap swings around with buys and sells, as liquidity is fairly poor. Crucially, 86% of PYLNT is circulating - the remainder is held by the team, who make revenue so have not been selling. They recently got listed on idex and the tokenomics info was just released. What we are about to witness is outcome of hard work of 4-5 years. First lets understand what the project is all about. PYLNT is a blockchain for energy sector and helps world save energy and consumers their energy bills. Apart from this they are also working on P2P energy trading marketplace, where companies can trade their energy credits (research about Copenhagen summit for this usecase). So they have built a tech, which when implemented , automatically helps companies and people save on energy. In simple language, The tech automatically handles the diversion of surplus energy, provides realtime data and improves efficiency. It's a highly technical project that boast of several accolades from Individuals and governments. For example, Their Chairman won Engineer of the year award in 2017 , apart from that some of the other positives include but not limited to
Working partnership with Basque Country’s energy cooperative, GoiEner
Partnership with Denmark based GreenHydrogen
Received the prize from Spain Tech Center, being selected unanimously as the most innovative from all finalist startups, to represent Spain in Silicon Valley
Launched decentralized renewable energy exchange pilot in partnership with Ecooo.
Partnership with the community of Freetown Christiania, Denmark.
The Merchants Association of the San Fernando Market, partner-consumer of the energy cooperative La corriente, joins the Pylon Network pilot test and successfully completes the installation of what is now, the first “Metron” in Madrid, Spain.
Partnered with eGEO for the development of a certified energy meter
Spanish company Mirubee integrates Blockchain technology and Pylon Network open source software in its energy meters.
The only Spanish company invited by the Danish Government to improve public services.
Last October, Pylon Network was selected as winners of World Summit Awards (WSA) in the Green Energy & Environment category.
Working partnership with Energisme
Awarded by WAS (A UN Subsidary) and much more
The list above is very small, and a lot more has been done. Pylon Network was featured and hugely refrenced in research articles published by scientists/professors from Institute of Sensors, Signals and Systems, Heriot-Watt University, dinburgh, UK, Department of Anthropology, Durham University, Durham, UK, Siemens Energy Management, Hebburn, Tyne and Wear, UK, School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK Highest Award winning team in Crypto. Project widely in use and being appreciated by reputed science Orgs. Now why a moonshot? Firstly they have started getting regular work contracts in EU region, hence it has now become a revenue generating project and token holders will earn a percentage of revenue share. Low supply, low marketcap and team has confirmed a lots of marketing coming soon. The cofounder recently mentioned "More exiting things are coming. Thanks for your support 💪" Once mainnet launches there will actually be two tokens, as follows: PYLNT represents part ownership of the company and is necessary for the security and decentralisation of the blockchain. The sister coin PYLNC will be the utility token representing the value of user energy data stored on the blockchain. You will be able to stake PYLNT to receive dividends in PYLNC and also a share in profits from the company (unconfirmed whether this will be in crypto or fiat). Every company or individual will have to buy and stake PYLNT to run federated nodes, so in theory a lot of demand should be coming. When the ecosystem is live there are multiple value added services interacting with Pylon blockchain, and all of them will need to pay the txn fee in PYLNC. So the option for Digital Energy Service providers will be either to hold PYLNT so that they receive PYLNC rewards which they can then use for their operations, or buy PYLNC from the open market. So they will create demand for one token or the other from the open market. And given that PYLNT holders can stake to receive free PYLNC, they will benefit in either case. So in theory token holders should benefit fairly significantly from the success of the business... Here's a brief summary of the tokenomics update, hot off the presses yesterday: What has changed? - After PYLNC mainnet launch, masternodes and PYLNT holders will receive reward in PYLNC. - A masternode requires 3500 PYLNT to be locked. - At mainnet launch, the pre-mine of PYLNC is distributed to masternodes (80%) and to PYLNT holders (20%). - Newly mined PYLNC (block reward) is distributed to masternodes and PYLNT holders at the same ratio. - The block reward increases from year to year. - PYLNC rewards can be sold on exchanges, where the team will provide liquidity through buyback of PYLNC with service fees paid by customers. - Team commits to not selling their PYLNC rewards until full ecosystem is in place. What is the value of PYLNC? - PYLNC has a total supply of 100mm and will be mined over 16 years. - PYLNC is the ecosystem currency to be paid in fees to access energy data on the PYLNT blockchain. - PYLNC fee is determined by value of energy consumption data. - Customer need to buy PYLNC on exchanges for this purpose. - Customers also have to pay an annual service fee, which is used to buy back PYLNC on exchanges to be burned after, which increases the demand. - The more customers are onboarded, the higher the PYLNC demand. Shout with any questions, but this seems a legit choice to me. It'll only go up from here, the chances of issues seems low given the legitimacy of the team and project. DYOR and ask any questions. Cheers!
Anyone who wants to become a profitable stock trader need only spend a few minutes online to find such phrases as "plan your trade; trade your plan" and "keep your losses to a minimum." For new traders, these tidbits can seem more like a distraction than actionable advice. If you're new to trading, you probably just want to know how to hurry up and make money. Each of the rules below is important, but when they work together the effects are strong. Keeping them in mind can greatly increase your odds of succeeding in the markets. . What Do We Offer ?⠀ . ✅ Account management. ✅ Free signal and trial signal. ✅ Paid signal offers. ✅ Chart Analysis and Market Updates. ✅ 8-10 Signals a Day with Setup, TP and SL. ✅ Weekly More Than +800 PIPS. ✅ Daily Learnings and Free E-Books. ✅ Signals are given With Proper Analysis. ✅+25 Technical analysis/Setups each week. #trade #tradeforex #traders #forex #forextrading #tradewithtrend #tradesignals #trademarketing #tradingplan #moneymaking #crypto #daytrader #investor
Trend Trading: Half year Update on the quantitative analysis strategy
Hello GV community, for anyone who just want to see the performance of my program you can verify it on: https://genesis.vision/invest/programs/trendtrading In the charts you can set the time scale to "All". With the transparent profile of my trades I can prove that I don't speak hot air. The last 6 months have been a wild ride up and down. Even my program was hit by the Corona Virus, a black swan event which impacted the financal and crypto market. I couldnt' ve imagined that such an event would occur so fast after my program started. I was glad that I backtested my strategy through past crypto bear and bull markets and trusted my algorithm even when there were times where my emotions had a different opinion. It paid off: Right now the program is #2 on the GV "All time most profitable" list. Summary of some numbers:
Profit: +198% of my initital investment (at the time of writing. I started with 370$ and haven't withdrawn yet)
Success Trades: 51%
Profit Factor: 4.8
Best trading Period: +48%
Worst trading Period: - 31%
January until mid March was a small altseason, especially for ICX and ETH. My algorithm detected the starting signal and could make a decent profit (~+80%). The algorithm followed the positive trend as it should be. At the beginning/mid of March the sentiment was changing. Corona news hit the financial and crypto markets. Within several days the whole crypto market made a nose dive of up to -50%. My algorithm sold all positions some days before so that the loss was mitigated (still -30% within several days). During the bear market my algorithm tried to be "aggressive" as much as possible while maintaining the balance. Looking back my algorithm "overtraded" during the bear market and lost a lot due to slippage and trading fees. With this in mind I updated the algorithm to a lower trading frequency. On end of May the program entered a bull market. Not only did I made all the loss back but the profit is even better than before the big corona crash in march. This solidifies the strenght of my strategy: Follow the trend using quantitative analysis and cut out human emotion. I'm looking forward where the market is heading. My thanks on all those who followed me and haven't given up during the crash. It will be quite a ride even in the future, see you next time. TrendQuantTrader For more info about my strategy see my post: reddit Mandatory sentence: This is an informative post and not a financial advice. Investing in crypto is bound with high risk and can lead to loss of the investment.
TRADE OF THE DAY: AMD ($AMD) Sell $60 Put 25SEP (Cash-Secured Put) [08/11/20]
I'm proud to announce that I will be voting for Kony 2020! — Pre-Market Summary — S&P 500 futures hit a record high as investors shrugged off continuing U.S.-China tensions and instead focused on news of an approved, if largely unclear, Russian vaccine, and more stimulus optimism as President Donald Trump said he’s considering a tax cut on capital gains. According to Reuters calculations at the current levels, the benchmark index is set to open about 12 points below its Feb. 19 record peak of 3,393.52. American Airlines and Carnival led a boom in travel shares in the premarket. The S&P 500 closed less than 1% below its record high on Monday as investors extended a rotation into value stocks from heavyweight tech-related names. At 8:00 a.m. ET, S&P 500 e-minis were up 23.25 points, or 0.69%, topping an all-time high of 3,372.25 points last hit on Feb. 20. A rally in the tech megacaps including Amazon, Netflix and Apple that thrived during the shutdowns helped the Nasdaq reclaim its all-time high in June, while the Dow still remains about 6% below its peak. “Equity has never looked cheaper compared to fixed income and the like,” Jun Bei Liu, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “If you want any return, any yield, any income or even any growth you have to go to equities.” — Top Overnight News —
Britain’s mounting labor market crisis was underscored by a 220,000 slump in employment during the height of the coronavirus lockdown, the worst decline since the global financial crisis
Even as China continues to hit back at the Trump administration, leaders in Beijing are also signaling they want to ease tensions with the U.S. as the clock ticks down to the presidential election
Lebanon’s political leaders are expected to launch parliamentary consultations to choose a new prime minister after Hassan Diab’s government resigned on Monday over the devastating explosion at Beirut’s port
Hong Kong’s worst coronavirus outbreak is showing signs of coming under control as the city reported the lowest number of new local infections since its resurgence began over a month ago
— Trade Of The Day — Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) recently exploded higher from a well-established base, and we had this as our "trade of the day" shortly before it broke out for a 45% gain in about two weeks. At this point, many retail traders are "chasing" it higher, but we've learned over the years to nail the aggressive entry BEFORE it moves, not at the end of the move. After an explosive move like AMD's had, what can you do? SELL PUT OPTIONS! The price of AMD has moved down over the last couple of days and might give those who can sell options an opportunity to "get paid for the pullback." If I sell the AMD 25SEP $60 put options for at least a $.60 credit, I can immediately receive $60 per contract sold and that cash goes straight to my account balance. My obligation for receiving this cash is that I would commit to buying AMD should the price pull back to below $60/share by the 25th of September. I would want to buy that pullback entry anyway, but now I can get paid for watching AMD pull back in price. Should the price continue rallying higher, then my obligation to buy at $60/share simply evaporates after 25 September and I keep the $60/contract. Even if the price pulls back to $61/share by 25 September, I still keep the cash and let the obligation expire. Only if the price actually pulls back to $60/share or lower - highly unlikely barring some exogenous event - will I be required to do anything. This is a "cash-secured put option" play, meaning that I have to have the cash tucked away in my account to be able to fund that purchase of AMD stock should I be assigned on 25 September, and that amounts to having $6000 per contract available. This is the epitome of "passive income," being paid a 1% return on my capital for the next 45 days for doing absolutely nothing. We wrote a guide to Cash-Secured Short Puts that you can access here. Disclaimer — This is a trade idea meant to help anyone learning options or looking for outside opinion, not an instruction manual for what to do with your money. You are the only one responsible for your portfolio. Consider joining the tradoftheday subreddit to submit your own trade of the day & talk more about stocks / options / crypto / spacs / everything else trading! Cheers and beers, ReadySetTrade
Crypto signals were a scam. Any possible profits could be made only by ourselves.
Crypto signals groups were all scam. Group leaders were publishing complicated technical charts showing theirs “expertise”, speculate about insiders, whales, whatever else. “Blockchain Whispers”, “Bitmex Whales”, private traders were trying to make money on selling signals to us. There were even cypto signals aggregators, these groups were buying membership and then “pirate” signals forwarding them to theirs own group. One of these aggregators was recently closed and admin wrote an honest letter, saying that he doesn’t want his subscribers suffer more losses. That’s what he wrote: “Over the last year or so, we have tenaciously tried many signal groups, sources and many approaches with the goal of getting you an edge in crypto trading. I believe having the access and reach we had over these last couple of years gave us a great edge. Some of us could even capitalize on this edge.. but what we have seen more and more over the last year, coming at it from as many angles as we could, with access to all the vast information and sources we had, is that fundamentally, signal groups are not profitable. In fact, they are becoming more and more polluted with misinformation and ‘scammy’ behaviour by the day. Based on this sure clarity, I would no longer be involved in promoting these groups or stand by and listen to the vast majority of our members beating themselves up over losses in trading.” Nevertheless, group members paid for everything in the end. The conclusion is that nobody will give us money, we can only take it by ourselves with the knowledge, research and disciplined trading (obvious, right? no, not for all). Nobody will give us profitable signals, we can make it only by ourselves. That was my motivation when I’ve started to study to scripting languages, trading algos, liquidity, execution, exchanges etc., to write my own bot/strategy, to produce signals by myself. What I’ve understood after building my own crypto bot and few months of automatic trading:
With the strategy that is open for you to study and alter, you can see how it works and why it makes this or that decision. You can change the system. You can adjust it for some specific asset.
You can see how it works in the long run (backtests) and tune it up.
You got signal at the same time as everybody else, there is no “inner circle” that buys first and dumping on you after.
The algos removes all the behavioral biases you have. Most profitable trades seems counterintuitive at first, but great in hindsight.
Also automatic system has bullet proof risk management, once it was built in, it will follow it rigorously (it is hugely important specifically in long losing strikes).
That is for positive sides. As for negative sides, they are the same as for manual trading and more:
If 95% of active traders fail to beat a low-cost index fund, then probably the same thing for active algo strategies.
It is not exactly ’set it and forget it’ type of operation. It’s about deploying different bots for different market conditions and being comfortable making adjustments. @peasantwizard
Typically, the most profitable strategies are kept in secret.
Bot needs to be online, deal with different exchange API’s, etc.
There are lots of fraudsters that sells “profitable bots” and strategies with unrealistic back-testing results that hard to achieve in real trading.
What I’ve found that in 2020 we have great developed open source places for algotrading that easily connect like LEGO bricks.
TradingView has a huge open source community and great developers that opens some of theirs strategies free of charge that is easy to use and change.
QuantStart community for advanced guys.
There is a list of execution software, like open source Instabot trader , and its commercial version Alertatron, 3commas, more expensive ones like HaasBot etc that turns the execution on exchange from a constant headache to not-so-expensive service problem.
Not perfect, but reliable, high-liquidity exchanges with negative commission — Bitmex and Bybit. Negative commission is crucial for most algotraders profitability.
There are great support telegram groups such as PineScripters with ultra-helpful admins and coders to help people with peculiarities of Tradingview’s Pine programming. But I found nothing where one can ask some beginners questions about simple adding strategy to the chart, tuning, testing, getting real strategy’s results or about simple the way to execute on exchange. For some beginners question how to get into algotrading without … years of coding experience. Today I've wrote the first part of complete beginners step-by-step bot building guide using open source strategy on TradingView and plan to test more strategies and publish actual trading results. TLDR; To avoid scams in crypto, we should learn how to profit by ourselves. Let’s research new trading algos together.
I've developed a free trading tool and would like some feedbacks on how to improve it
Hi everyone, i'm a crypto-trader and developer who uses several tools to help with my trading. I've made this bot that signals when there is a difference between the short/long ratio of Whales/Retails on Binance. I still need to see if there is some kind of correlation with the price movement or if it could be used for trading. The output is something like this for now: ATOMUSDT 240M 27/05 @ 12:03 W □□□□□■■■■■|■■■■■□□□□□ 49/51% D □□□□□□□□□■|□□□□□□□□□□ -14.7% [15%] R □□□□□□■■■■|■■■■■■□□□□ 35/65% Open interest $1.5m (+5.5%) In this example the Whales(W) where short/long 49/51, instead retails where short/long with a percentage of 35/65 , which is a 14.7% difference . I don't know it this could be useful or anything, i'm still studying it. It works on all USDT currencies of Binance and with 5m,1h,4h timeframe for now. My idea is to create a FREE(not paid access or anything) telegram channel where this bot will output when there is some kind of big difference between whales/retails. could use it and send me feedback on how to improve it or if there is some kind of other statistics that could be useful. I'm here just to gather some feedbacks on how to improve an already existing tool or to create other tools that the traders could find useful. Let me know if you're interested so i'll create the channel! Cheers
Best place for beginner to start with crypto trading bots?
Im new to trading, know a little about crypto in the general sense of things. I have had .2 btc for some years now and i want to buy a trading bot that will generate me any kind of profit consistently over every month, i understand there will be bad days, but as long as each month is profitable than I'm happy. Any suggestions and tips on how to start out? thanks I have signed up cryptohopper and been trying out a paper trading hopper one with TA and one with free signals and so far they are not looking great. Maybe paid signals would produce a more promising return but not sure with being new to the whole trading thing. I did see another trading bot called 3commas i think that gives you free account up to certain amount. Help this noob please! haha
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Crypto Trading Signals Perfect for Beginners - YouTube
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