Best Ways To Keep Stop Loss For Intra Day Trading 3% ...

Volatility, an Instrument of Truth

Follow along here to trade volatility and volatility derivatives. VIX, VX futures, and Volatility ETPs.
[link]

What is the highest margin on trading Intraday and have any of you succeeded in it?

Which firm offers the highest margin and how much did you make of it?
submitted by emotionalgeeko to investing [link] [comments]

Margin Isn't Dangerous & Why I'd Still Use It If I Had Less Than $25,000

Margin Isn't Dangerous & Why I'd Still Use It If I Had Less Than $25,000

Cash vs. Margin


TL;DR- Use Margin if you're trading securities and either above or below 25k. If you know how to size positions, it won't matter if you move $4,000 into a trade or $4,000,000. As long as you sized the position correctly. If you're limited to 3 trades, then take 3 PERFECT trades: https://imgur.com/a/SpPOERQ

I see lots of people discussing contrasting ideas although they attempt to justify using both. Here are some things I see said and written frequently from people that doesn't add up for me:

  • "Use a cash account to avoid PDT" - (Totally fine, in some cases such as certain options traders. Not if you're trading securities.)
  • "Risk 1% of your account" - (So if your account is at $25,500, I risk ~$255 and if I lose 2R I'm below PDT. Doesn't sound too great to me if I were to lose the first 2 straight trades.)
  • "Margin is a double-edged sword" - (It's only dangerous if you don't set hard stops or size your positions correctly.)
  • "Never take on a trade that is worth more than your account" - (I can agree if you were swing trading but in terms of IntraDay trading, this is hindering your ability to grow your account. If you're risking $100 on a trade that costs less than your account value.. then $25 on a trade because of your account value.. then you're adding unneeded variables. Remember: "Consistency.")


The Predictive Model I built lays out all valid trades within the report range as well as \"Perfect Trades\" that I consider \"Textbook\". The report range is between a 30 day range. Between 4-17-20 to 5-17-20. Total \"Perfect Trade\" count is 9 trades. Even if I were limited to 3 trades per week. I'd be able to trade them with less than 25k on margin. The stats reflect $100 risk I've set on a different tab. (The \"W\" is just a graphic I made for \"Winning\")

It doesn’t matter if you move $4,000, $40,000, or $4,000,000 into a position. As long as you’re risking the same. Your Trading Account's performance is based off of risk. Such as:
•Sharpe ratio
•RRR
•Number of R’s in 1 week/month/quarter. (Example: I made 7R this week. If my R is $100. I made $700)

If I were to go back to when I was below $25,000 some years ago. I'd still use a margin account while being limited to 3 trades per week. Here's why:

Formulas you have to know:
Position size formula = Risk ÷ Stop Size
Stop Size Formula = Entry - StopLoss

Example 1a:

Stock ABC,
Entry = $10.00
StopLoss = $9.90
StopSize = 10¢
Risk = $100
In Live Trading: $100 ÷ $0.10 = 1000 Shares
1,000 shares at $10.00 = $10,000 position

Example 1b:

Stock XYZ,
Entry = $385
StopLoss = $383.00
StopSize = $2.00
Risk = $100
In Live Trading: $100 ÷ $2.00 = 50 Shares
50 shares at $385 = $19,250 position.

*$10,000 CASH account: CANNOT trade Stock XYZ and must wait 3 days for his entire account to settle after trading Stock ABC. If it was a margin account, they'd still be able to take 2 more trades this week.
*$10,000 MARGIN account: CAN trade Stock XYZ and can trade both scenarios while still able to trade 1 more time in a 5 day rolling period.

Then the next point made is, "Just won't trade anything above $20".


Ok. great rebuttal, but why?

Let's remember this: StopSizes aren't always directly correlated to the price of a stock. YES you're more likely to have a wider StopSize on a higher priced stock and a tighter StopSize on a lower priced stock. But remember this: of slippage on 1,000 shares is 10% of his risk ($10)... It will be even more slippage if his stop loss market order is hit. Even a Sell-StopLimit order will have slippage within the amount you allow for when you enter a position.
Stock XYZ would have to be slipped 20¢ just to equate the amount of slippage on Stock ABC.Highly liquid and available stocks such as AAPL, AMD, NVDA etc don't have 20¢ spreads. Not even 10¢. Rarely 5¢. Most of the time. Just a couple cents. Of course there could be more right out of the open but the spread in my years of experience is tightened within 2 minutes of the open.
Yes, these small amounts in pennies do hold lots of merit if you're looking at having any longevity in this business, it WILL add up over the years.

Both trades have the same risk [in perfect world theory].

If both stop market orders were hit (StopLoss). Both traders would exit with a $100 loss on each. Although 1 trade required $10,000 in capital and the other trade required $19,250 in capital.
Use margin. If I had to go back to when I had less than $25,000 in my account, I'd still do it the same way I did it with margin. I highly suggest using margin even if you’re limited to 3 trades per week. I get asked all the time when I began trading. If you watched my last video, I showed my first ever deposit with Scottrade (Old brokerage that was bought out by TDA a few years ago) in 2015 although I don't consider that's when I started trading because I didn't treat it the way I do today.
I really consider myself starting as a trader in 2017 when I:
•Wrote a business plan
•Understood statistics
•How to research.
All this being said, slowly over time I noticed that I am taking less and less trades and increasing my risk size. Why?
EV: Expected Value.


- Margin has zero negative effect if you're sizing your positions the same every time. Margin allows you to take on more expensive positions that are showing your edge.

Bonus: Being limited to 3 trades a week isn't fun, I remember that feeling from years ago. Just remember to take 3 perfect trades a week. Sometimes "Perfect Trades" don't work out in your favor while some subpar situations hit target. Some weeks you might take your 3 "Perfect Trades" by Tuesday. Some weeks you might take only 1 "perfect trade". If you follow my watchlists on Twitter (Same handle as my Reddit), I keep my Day Trading Buying Power transparent. Not always is it growing perfectly linear. And not always am I posting every single day because sometimes, my edge isn't there. Just because the market is open doesn't mean you HAVE to trade.
My watchlists aren't littered with 15+ tickers. Rarely do they have more than 7. That may work for other traders, but for me, I demand quality. It's either there or it isn't. No reason to force a trade. I'd rather focus heavily on a few tickers rather than spread myself thin across multiple.
Trading isn't supposed to be exhilarating or an adrenaline rush. It can be boring. I said that in the post I wrote back in April.
Also if you make money, even if its just $20 in a month. Take that money out and buy something. Shrine it. Cherish it. You ripped that money out of WallStreet. Be proud of it. It takes a lot of courage to do this business. Realize that the P/L is real money. Sometimes even just buying a tank of gas or a book will help you realize that. Spend it from time to time. Get something out of your trading account. You may or not be trading for long, get something that is tangible to always remember the experience in case you don't last. Make it your trophy.

That's all I've got for right now. Maybe I'll make another post or 2 before the year ends. I hit my 1 year full-time mark in September.
Best wishes!
-CJT2013
submitted by CJT2013 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

PRPL Nurps got twisted, How to interpret and move forward - I was wrong

PRPL Nurps got twisted, How to interpret and move forward - I was wrong

Just about how I feel
Alright ladies and Gentleman- Many of you gambled with me on a purple earnings play and it didn't quite materialize as expected - I hope many of you purchased some of the lower more conservative debit spreads as they should be profitable still.

Current Moves
I took some time on earnings day, after hours to unload some shares as well as warrants with the expectation that the sell off would push us down to around 20.00, it appears that the selloff is mostly done as we've dropped about 4.5 from Thursday intraday peak.
I have begun selling cash secured puts for September expiration, 20.00 strike As I do not believe purple will drop past 18.65, which is the breakeven point for those puts.
Awesome quarter but not as awesome as expected
Alright, even though Purple didn't come close to my 225M estimate, it still had an amazing quarter in terms of fundaments. Purple achieved about 122M in revenue in Q1 and 165M in revenue in Q2, that is an impressive feat, especially considering they appeared to shutdown operations for a couple of weeks and that created deferred orders for Q3.
Adjusted earnings of 60+ cents per share, this excludes one time charges. This is actually an impressive number and beat many of the analysts expectations. The headlines showing the miss reported on GAAP, not adjusted.
Joe Megibow indicated that PRPL would have about 1B in capacity by the end of 2021, that is definitely an excellent reason to hold your investment or look for an entry.
After the call there were still price upgrades from almost every analyst as the year over year growth is very very impressive, especially for a manufacturing company.

Tip ranks price targets as of 11PM eastern

Going forward
I believe the worst of the sell off is over and I expect that we will likely trade in the 21-25 dollar range from now until the next earnings. I have since exited about 60K shares of stock and about 60K warrants as I believe cash secured puts are a better play for the next couple of months. I will be selling puts for 20.00. on my remaining shares I will be selling covered call with 30 strikes.
I am also still holding my 22.5/25.00 debit spreads for October and I will hold my 25/30 and 25/35 debit spreads for January as I believe November could be a very very good earnings as the stock price will hopefully trade only slightly up and the accrual for warrants will be much smaller.
Revenue possibilities for Q3.
I believe that Q3 max revenue will likely be in the 200 Million range. This is due to PRPL running full production for 12 weeks instead of 10 and the additional 7th machine that is available for the entire quarter rather than just a single month of the quarter.
I believe that Purple will not quite achieve 200M in revenue because there will be a shift into wholesale that will push down top line, slightly, this is based on the comments from the calls. I believe purple will likely only achieve about 15% more revenue in Q3 than Q2, which is still impressive. This is my quick envelope calculation.
It is still early but I expect somewhere in the 180-190M range and gross Margin around 46-47%.

Capital structure
I was optimistic that this quarter would push us to a point where we could clean up the warrant situation but it appears that we will have another quarter of accruals and reversals. I was asked by u/indonesian_activist to detail the capital structure, I will try to do that in a follow on post as it is not as clean as I'd like but I don't believe it is a show stopper as the company is still producing healthy amounts of cash, gross margin improvement and market share improvement.

The capital structure is also promising because the founders still have a large stake in the company. Founder led companies are very very good.
My positions before and through earnings
No I didn't sell anything before the call. The first transaction In my account on 8/13 is selling warrants for 5.00 (which is cheaper than they are going for now and cheaper than they went for at any other time that earnings day). i was hoping to re-purchase if the stock plummeted, which it didn't so it cost be about 75K between shares and warrants.
I've broken down my first trade details and then shown a summary of every subsequent purchase. This is probably the last time I will go into this detail because it's time consuming, but i held every penny through earnings.

First After hours trade on 8/13, just above 8/12.


First trade is the 509.98 shown above, each following trade is above- goes from newest to oldest as the list goes down.
Current Position as of tonight
I sold 400 CSP contracts on Friday and I sold my 22.5 calls for about 1.00 on Friday as well as they were almost as expensive as the day I bought them. I am now holding a naked position as I have -2910 25.00 PRPL calls in the market.
I am holding the remainder of my calls and debit spreads.
I hope you guys made out ok- most of the more conservative spreads are still net positive. I will not lie about my moves but I also am not going to post my moves real time as sometimes they are time sensitive.

https://preview.redd.it/wop4lqmsnhh51.jpg?width=444&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a20cd3225354ec8ecb02575d445f4edff29d7665

https://preview.redd.it/gjp9squwnhh51.jpg?width=435&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=36fc2b3e785fc78a8335385cd13f48b3277a9015
God speed Autists. Do your own research- I learned all my investing skills through Tik Tok.

Matt
submitted by dhsmatt2 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

The Great Unwinding: Why WSB Will Keep Losing Their Tendies

The Great Unwinding: Why WSB Will Keep Losing Their Tendies
I. The Death of Modern Portfolio Theory, The Loss of Risk Parity, & The Liquidity Crunch
SPY 1 Y1 Day
Modern portfolio theory has been based on the foundational idea for the past 3 decades that both equities and bonds are inversely correlated. However, as some people have realized, both stocks and bonds are both increasing in value and decreasing in value at the same time.[1] This approach to investing is used pretty much in everyone's 401K, target date retirement plans, or other forms of passive investing. If both bonds and equities are losing value, what will happen to firms implementing these strategies on a more generalized basis known as risk-parity? Firms such as Bridgewater, Bluecrest, and H2O assets have been blowing up. [2,3]
Liquidity has been drying up in the markets for the past two weeks.[4] The liquidity crisis has been in the making since the 2008 financial crisis, after the passage of Dodd-Frank and Basel III. Regulations intended to regulate the financial industry have instead created the one of the largest backstops to Fed intervention as the Fed tried to pump liquidity into the market through repo operations. What is a repo?
A repo is a secured loan contract that is collateralized by a security. A repo transaction facilitates the sale and future repurchase of the security that serves as collateral between the two parties: (1) the borrower who owns a security and seeks cash and (2) the lender who receives the security as collateral when lending the cash. The cash borrower sells securities to the cash lender with the agreement to repurchase them at the maturity date. Over the course of the transaction, the cash borrower retains the ownership of the security. On the maturity date, the borrower returns the cash with interest to the lender and the collateral is returned from the lender to the borrower.[5]
Banks like Bank of New York Mellon and JP Morgan Chase act as a clearing bank to provide this liquidity to other lenders through a triparty agreement.[6] In short, existing regulations make it unfavorable to take on additional repos due to capital reserve requirement ratios, creating a liquidity crunch.[7,8,9] What has the Fed done to address this in light of these facts?
In light of the shift to an ample reserves regime, the Board has reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective on March 26, the beginning of the next reserve maintenance period.[10]
II. Signs of Exhaustion & The Upcoming Bounce is a Trap, We Have Far More to Go
A simple indicator to use is the relative strength index (RSI) that a lot of WSB is familiar with. RSI is not the be all and end all. There's tons of indicators that also are indicating we are at a very oversold point.
SPY 1 Y1 Day RSI
Given selling waves, there are areas of key support and resistance. For reference, I have not changed key lines since my original charts except for the colors. You can check in my previous posts. 247.94 has been critically an area that has been contested many times, as seen in the figure below. For those that bought calls during the witching day, RIP my fellow autists. The rejection of 247.94 and the continued selling below 233.86 signals to me more downside, albeit, it's getting exhausted. Thus, I expect the next area in which we start rallying is 213.
SPY 10 Day/30 min
Another contrarian indicator for buying calls is that notable people in finance have also closed their shorts. These include Jeffery Gundlach, Kevin Muir, and Raoul Pal.[11,12,13]
III. The Dollar, Gold, and Oil
As previously stated, cash is being hoarded by not only primary banks, but central banks around the world. This in turn has created a boom in the dollar's strength, despite limitless injections of cash (if you think 1 trillion of Repo is the ceiling, think again) by the Fed.
DXY
Despite being in a deflationary environment, the DXY has not achieved such levels since 2003. Given the dollar shortage around the world, it is not inconceivable that we reach levels of around 105-107. For disclosure, I have taken a long position in UUP. However, with all parabolic moves, they end in a large drop. To summarize, the Fed needs to take action on its own currency due to the havoc it's causing globally, and will need to crush the value of the dollar, which will likely coincide with the time that we near 180.
If we are indeed headed towards 180, then gold will keep selling off. WSB literally screams bloody guhhhhhh when gold sells off. However, gold has been having an amazing run and has broken out of its long term channel. In times of distress and with margin calls, heavy selling of equities selling off of gold in order to raise cash. As previously noted, in this deflationary environment, everything is selling off from stocks, to bonds, to gold.
/GC Futures Contracts 5 Y1 Wk
What about oil? Given the fall out of the risk parity structure, I'm no longer using TLT inflows/outflows as an indicator. I've realized that energy is the economy. Closely following commodities such as light crude which follow supply and demand more closely have provided a much better leading indicator as to what will happen in equities. Given that, oil will also most likely hit a relief rally. But ultimately, we have seen it reach as low $19/barrel during intraday trading.
/CL Futures Contracts 1 Y1 D
IV. The Next 5 Years
In short, the recovery from this deflationary environment will take years to recover from. The trend down will not be without large bumps. We cannot compare this on the scale of the 2008 financial crisis. This is on the order of 1929. Once we hit near 180, the Fed crushes the dollar, we are in a high likelihood of hitting increased inflation, or stagflation. At this point the Fed will be backed into a corner and forced to raise rates. My targets for gold are around 1250-1300. It may possibly go near to 1000. Oil could conceivably go as low as $15-17/barrel, so don't go all in on the recovery bounce. No matter what, the current rise in gold will be a trap. The continued selling in the S&P is a trap, will bounce, forming another trap, before continuing our painful downtrend.
I haven't even mentioned coronavirus and unemployment until now. I've stated previously we are on track to hit around at least 10,000 coronavirus cases by the end of this month. It's looking closer to now 20-30,000. Next month we are looking to at least 100,000 by the end of the April. We might hit 1,000,000 by May or June.
Comparison of the 2020 Decline to 1929
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chart courtesy of Moon_buzz
tl;dr We're going to have a major reflexive rally starting around 213, all the way back to at least to 250, and possibly 270. WSB is going to lose their minds holding their puts, and then load up on calls, declaring we've reached a bottom in the stock market. The next move will be put in place for the next leg down to 182, where certain actors will steal all your tendies on the way down. Also Monday might be another circuit breaker.
tl;dr of tl;dr Big bounce incoming. Bear trap starting 213. Then bull trap up around 250-270. We're going down to around 182.
tl;dr of tl;dr of tl;dr WSB will be screwed both left and right before they can say guh.
Hint: If you want to get a Bloomberg article for free, hit esc repeatedly before the popup appears. If it doesn't work, refresh the article, and keep hitting esc.
Remember, do not dance. We are on the cusp of a generational change. Use the money you earn to protect yourselves and others. Financial literacy and knowledge is the key to empowerment and self-change.
Some good DD posts:
u/bigd0g111 -https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fmshcv/when_market_bounce_inevitably_comesdont_scream/
u/scarvesandsuspenders - https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fmzu51/incoming_bounce_vix_puts/

Update 1 3/22/2020 - Limit down 3 minutes of futures. Likely hit -7% circuit breaker on the cash open on Monday at 213 as stated previously.
Do not think we will hit the 2nd circuit breaker at 199.06. Thinking we bounce, not too much, but stabilize at least around 202.97.
Update 2 3/23/20 9:08 - Watching the vote before making any moves.
9:40 - sold 25% of my SPY puts and 50% of my VXX calls
9:45 - sold another 50% of SPY puts
9:50 - just holding 25% SPY puts now and waiting for the vote/other developments
11:50 - Selling all puts.
Starting my long position.
11:55 - Sold USO puts.
12:00 - Purchased VXX puts to vega hedge.
2:45 - Might sell calls EOD. Looks like a lot of positioning for another leg down before going back up.
It's pretty common to shake things out in order to make people to sell positions. Just FYI, I do intraday trading. If you can't, just wait for EOD for the next positioning.
3:05 - Seeing a massive short on gold. Large amounts of calls on treasuries. And extremely large positioning for more shorts on SPY/SPX.
Will flip into puts.
Lot of people keep DM'ing me. I'm only going to do this once.

https://preview.redd.it/uvs5tkje1ho41.png?width=2470&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6b632556ca04a26e4e08fb2c9223bfcb84e0901
That said, I'm going back into puts. Just goes to show how tricky the game is.
3:45 - As more shorts cover, going to sell the calls and then flip into puts around the last few min of close.
Hope you guys made some money on the cover and got some puts. I'll write a short update later explaining how they set up tomorrow, especially with the VIX dropping so much.
3/24/20 - So the rally begins. Unfortunately misread the options volume. The clearest signal was the VIX dropping the past few days even though we kept swinging lower, which suggested that large gap downs were mostly over and the rally is getting started.
Going to hold my puts since they are longer dated. Going to get a few short term calls to ride this wave.
10:20 - VIX still falling, possibility of a major short squeeze coming in if SPY breaks out over 238-239.
10:45 - Opened a small GLD short, late April expiration.
10:50 - Sold calls, just waiting, not sure if we break 238.
If we go above 240, going back into calls. See room going to 247 or 269. Otherwise, going to start adding to my puts.
https://preview.redd.it/ag5s0hccxmo41.png?width=2032&format=png&auto=webp&s=aad730db4164720483a8b60056243d6e4a8a0cab
11:10 - Averaging a little on my puts here. Again, difficult to time the entries. Do not recommend going all in at a single time. Still watching around 240 closely.
11:50 - Looks like it's closing. Still going to wait a little bit.
12:10 - Averaged down more puts. Have a little powder left, we'll see what happens for the rest of today and tomorrow.
2:40 - Closed positions, sitting on cash. Waiting to see what EOD holds. Really hard trading days.
3:00 - Last update. What I'm trying to do here posting some thoughts is for you guys to take a look at things and make some hypotheses before trading. Getting a lot of comments and replies complaining. If you're tailing, yes there is risk involved. I've mentioned sizing appropriately, and locking in profits. Those will help you get consistent gains.
https://preview.redd.it/yktrcoazjpo41.png?width=1210&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d6f0272712a2d17d45e033273a369bc164e2477
Bounced off 10 year trendline at around 246, pretty close to 247. Unless we break through that the rally is over. Given that, could still see us going to 270.
3/25/20 - I wouldn't read too much into the early moves. Be careful of the shakeouts.
Still long. Price target, 269. When does the month end? Why is that important?
12:45 - out calls.
12:50 - adding a tranche of SPY puts. Adding GLD puts.
1:00 est - saving rest of my dry powder to average if we still continue to 270. Think we drop off a cliff after the end of the quarter.
Just a little humor... hedge funds and other market makers right now.
2:00pm - Keep an eye on TLT and VXX...
3:50pm - Retrace to the 10 yr trend line. Question is if we continue going down or bounce. So I'm going to explain again, haven't changed these lines. Check the charts from earlier.
https://preview.redd.it/9qiqyndtivo41.png?width=1210&format=png&auto=webp&s=55cf84f2b9f5a8099adf8368d9f3034b0e3c4ae4
3/26/20 - Another retest of the 10 yr trendline. If it can go over and hold, can see us moving higher.
9:30 - Probably going to buy calls close to the open. Not too sure, seems like another trap setting up. Might instead load up on more puts later today.
In terms of unemployment, was expecting close to double. Data doesn't seem to line up. That's why we're bouncing. California reported 1 million yesterday alone, and unemployment estimates were 1.6 million? Sure.
Waiting a little to see the price action first.
Treasuries increasing and oil going down?
9:47 - Added more to GLD puts.
10:11 - Adding more SPY puts and IWM puts.
10:21 - Adding more puts.
11:37 - Relax guys, this move has been expected. Take care of yourselves. Eat something, take a walk. Play some video games. Don't stare at a chart all day.
If you have some family or close friends, advise them not to buy into this rally. I've had my immediate family cash out or switch today into Treasury bonds/TIPS.
2:55pm - https://youtu.be/S74rvpc6W60?t=9
3:12pm - Hedge funds and their algos right now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZF_nUm982vI
4:00pm - Don't doubt your vibe.
For those that keep asking about my vibe... yes, we could hit 270. I literally said we could hit 270 when we were at 218. There was a lot of doubt. Just sort by best and look at the comments. Can we go to 180 from 270? Yes. I mentioned that EOM is important.
Here's another prediction. VIX will hit ATH again.
2:55pm EST - For DM's chat is not working now. Will try to get back later tonight.

Stream today for those who missed it, 2:20-4:25 - https://www.twitch.tv/videos/576598992
Thanks again to WallStreetBooyah and all the others for making this possible.

9:10pm EST Twitter handles (updated) https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fmhz1p/the_great_unwinding_why_wsb_will_keep_losing/floyrbf/?context=3, thanks blind_guy
Not an exhaustive list. Just to get started. Follow the people they follow.
Dark pool and gamma exposure - https://squeezemetrics.com/monitodix
Wyckoff - https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method
MacroVoices
Investopedia for a lot. Also links above in my post.

lol... love you guys. Please be super respectful on FinTwit. These guys are incredibly helpful and intelligent, and could easily just stop posting content.
submitted by Variation-Separate to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

I bought six PRPL mattresses today. You should buy PRPL too (it's undervalued).

I bought six PRPL mattresses today. You should buy PRPL too (it's undervalued).
tl;dr: Buy PRPL stock, warrants (PRPLW) or calls based upon your preference. They are closing out a killer quarter and are undervalued. PRPL 22.5c 8/21 if you really need a strike.

I decided to appeal to both WSB audiences today with two different types of DD:
  1. A completely irrelevant story with some pictures and a position
  2. Numbers and Other Stuff

I bought six Purple Mattresses today.

Yep. I moved to Utah a few weeks ago (absolutely true) in order to do better DD for you in Purple's hometown (not true at all), so I decided to trek down to the Purple Factory Outlet to scope out the scene.
Purple Factory Outlet in a crappy part of Salt Lake - Sign on the door says \"NO CASH INSIDE\"
Family informed me they were coming to visit in three days (who does that to someone when they just moved!?!). My wife said we needed sleeping arrangements, so I said Purple mattresses.
After speaking with my Mattress Firm friend, he told me that Mattress Firm is entirely out of stock of twin mattresses in the Salt Lake City market (Purple's hometown). Worse, the mattresses aren't coming back as the original (the only mattress to come in twin) is being discontinued.

https://preview.redd.it/qd4u5bo3oy751.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=3417ffb0eca481dbd797b67be2cb9c06c7a58a65
This is a screenshot of an internal Mattress Firm memo on the discontinuance of the Original Purple Mattress (the cheapest one by far) What can I say? He isn't a photographer.
  • The original is going away
  • Floor models are NOT to be sold as they are traffic drivers
https://preview.redd.it/tsevapzpoy751.jpg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=04399eff4e38e98ad17fa55d6db0e511f799bc67
I figured the Purple branded store would have stock, if it existed. And because they are being discontinued, I didn't want to be left short-handed in the future. So, I walked out of the store with six Purple mattresses. And some pillows. And sheets. And mattress protectors. Aaaaaand because I took delivery, it counts towards Q2 revenue (the best part).
For all of those who will inevitably accuse me of pumping the stock, I admit that purchasing six mattresses will pump revenue and therefore pump the stock after earnings. Now, where are all of those people who asked me for a free mattress?

This was a sign.
Most importantly, when I pulled out of the parking lot, a purple Dodge Challenger zoomed right by me. I was barely able to get this zoomed in picture of it. This means PRPL stock is going to zoom up.
PRPL 22.5c 8/21. I bought ten of those contracts today too. It was cheaper than the mattresses.

Numbers and Other Stuff

I put forward that because Purple is a high revenue growth company, the best valuation metrics are revenue multiples (as opposed to EBITDA multiples or P/E ratios). You're welcome to debate this, but frankly, the forward looking EBITDA and Earnings look beautiful as well.
Additionally, I put forward that Enterprise Value / Revenue is superior to Market Cap / Revenue, but I'll let you do that research yourself.
From Yahoo Finance:
Enterprice Value / Revenue
Ticker As of 6/28/20 2020 Q1 2019 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1
PRPL 2.01 2.52 3.94 3.61 3.73 3.09
TPX 1.71 4.84 7.39 7.34 8.07 6.88
SNBR 0.98 2.36 4.40 3.79 4.97 3.78
CSPR 0.53 0.91
Yes, COVID has happened, but unlike TPX, SNBR or Serta Simmons Bedding (which just completed a pseudo-bankruptcy), Purple has actually benefited from COVID and its prospects have never looked better with a shift to higher revenue- and margin-per-unit DTC as well as insatiable demand from its wholesale partners.
PRPL is currently trading well below its own previous EV / Rev multiple range, despite accelerating revenue growth into Q2 with a healthy long-term outlook of holding an increase.
Additionally, PRPL is trading well below the pre-COVID norm for industry EV / Rev mutliples.
What about CSPR? CSPR is a total dumpster fire that is now drowning in IPO lawsuits. Its revenue growth has materially slowed, was awful in April forward looking (15% YoY growth vs 170% for PRPL), on declining margins. The cash burn rate for CSPR was high before COVID. They likely only have a few quarters left to live. I think they are overpriced as a result. CSPR is a bad comp even though there are similarities to the businesses at the 30,000 ft level.

Revenue Growth & Estimates (Q2 Estimates via Yahoo Finance)
Ticker My Estimate Q2 Low-Mid-High Estimates 2020 Q1 2019 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1
PRPL 201.7-233.3 170-180.1-186.9 Actuals 122.4 124.3 117.4 103.0 83.6
YoY % 46.3% 58.3% 65.8% 36.0% 37.7%
TPX 613-616.4-626.4 Actuals 822.4 871.3 821.0 722.8 690.9
YoY % 19.0% 32.9% 12.5% 7.9% 6.6%
SNBR 176.8-216.4-281.4 Actuals 472.6 441.2 474.8 356.0 426.4
YoY % 10.8% 7.1% 14.5% 12.6% 9.7%
CSPR 95.8-104.8-113.6 Actuals 113.0 126.9 89.4
YoY % 26.4% 24.3%* 24.3%* 24.3%*
A few items of note here:
  • CSPR disclosed the Last Twelve Months YoY growth as of 3/31 was 24.3% (which sucks for a revenue growth company that is burning cash)
  • PRPL accelerated its growth over the past year. It is massively accelerating again in Q2.
  • PRPL disclosed in an 8k that is has already booked about $145M in revenue for Q2, so the analysts' consensus estimates are WAY under. I gave my math and estimate for Q2 sales here. I still stand by the estimate that PRPL will beat $200M in revenue this quarter, especially since I just bought six mattresses.
  • Now compare the barely double digit growth numbers of TPX & SNBR over the past year to PRPL. Now compare the EV / R multiples. Something is off.
  • PRPL may very well beat SNBR in revenue for Q2 (due to SNBR's high reliance on wholesale sales).

Summary: PRPL's EV / R multiple is under where is should be, even in this market, whether you compare it to its own previous multiples or its competitors before they were affected by COVID. If you look at COVID EV / R multiples, it is in-line with companies who are materially struggling with cash flow and growth... this couldn't be further from the truth. PRPL is undervalued.

Analyst Price Targets

I don't usually give these guys much weight, but for those of you who do:

https://preview.redd.it/h13nnc7zxy751.png?width=531&format=png&auto=webp&s=f36406c5e43cd7e07757ba6459dbff5665b7e525
Marketbeat (and a few others) are inaccurately showing a lower consensus price target because they are using some very old price targets.

https://preview.redd.it/qxgstjh4yy751.png?width=1359&format=png&auto=webp&s=af9d185d18ad3db9c3bc8f44c6acecc729cc6d1a
As you look at the 7 price targets MarketBeat is using to build a consensus price target, two of them are from last year, which is ridiculously old (it's about time you update this Bank of America--you got your underwriting--now do your job). Wedbush was after earnings, but before the recent 8-K on Q2 revenue.
I put forward that the only targets that matter are those that adjusted to the 8-K revenue announcement. The consensus there is $19.75. This only matters if you follow these types of things.

Today's Price Action

I admit that this post would have been more relevant early this morning when I started writing it (the numbers part).
The price spiked late afternoon because of the attention drawn to it by a CNBC interview by CEO Joe Megibow.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/06/29/purple-ceo-on-the-popularity-of-mattresses-as-americans-stay-at-home.html
In the interview, he doesn't share anything really new (for those of us who closely follow), but he does emphasize that PRPL doesn't have a return rate problem, unlike others (*cough* CSPR *cough*).

Q2 EPS / EBITDA Estimates

PRPL has generated $70M in cash during April and May, which is insane for a stock that has generated Adjusted EBITDA in the 6.2-15.3M range over the last four quarters. The quarter isn't even done yet.
I'm not putting an EPS estimate on this because the amazing cash generation is going to be partially offset by a fairly large warrant liability expense adjustment. It will likely be one of the final expense adjustments we see as the secondary offering triggered a strike price drop to zero, which is one of key things the liability expense was modelling. Regardless, warrant liability expense doesn't deserve to be an expense as the warrants themselves are already built into fully diluted EPS, which is what everyone reports. The FASB done messed up on this one.

Technical Astrology & PRPL Patterns

IMO, most technical analysis is confirmation bias at best. Here's some confirmation bias.
https://preview.redd.it/5kviazrs0z751.png?width=1166&format=png&auto=webp&s=56c8daaa52c4af31c66c9821e57e40b9362b1bcd
If you are into this type of thing, PRPL has been a series of Bull Flags since the bottom of COVID. We are now ending our fourth bull flag (which likely ended today). At least this is what stocktwits and a few other areas are raving about.
Intraday Patterns
The intraday patterns are more interesting to me. I've been watching this security fairly closely over the last 3 months since the COVID bottom, and on most days, you'll see a spike in the morning that fades away into the afternoon. It is almost like clockwork and seems to be irrespective of volume.
While I don't trade this pattern because I don't want to exit my long-term capital gains positions yet, some of PRPL gang makes money by buying in the morning (or afternoon before), selling/shorting at the peak, and then closing/buying late afternoon. Good on them!
Also, PRPLW warrants tend to lag the stock on the way up if you want to play that too.

What is your next play after PRPL?

I've already mentioned several times that I will fully exit my warrants (and rotate into some PRPL stock / long dated options) when the stock price reaches about $24. My inbox has been bombarded with questions about what my next play is.

https://preview.redd.it/t56ziwe42z751.png?width=1161&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ccef0051c2f1740d1c8059f1cb2a16188f7435c
The above chart is a comparison between CSPR and PRPL. CSPR, even though it is a total dog, has been riding up with PRPL on sympathy plays. CSPR spikes on PRPL news, conference presentations, and any other movement.
PRPL has reasons to be up. CSPR shouldn't be any higher than where it was after its last earnings release. The only new things that have occurred are dozens of IPO lawsuits.
I'll be shorting CSPR for somewhere between $100k-$500k if I end up exiting my PRPL positions before CSPR earnings and if this stupid pattern holds. It's free money.

Positions

I've got tons of warrants (closing in on $2M worth) and now 10x PRPL 22.5c 8/21.

Do your own due diligence. This is not investment advice of any kind.
submitted by lurkingsince2006 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

DDDD - Cycles and Human History

DDDD - Cycles and Human History
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-Driven DD), now that my short term thesis of a 274-292 channel has now been invalidated because of some vaccine company fraudulently telling everyone they've cured COVID-19 to pump their stock before a secondary offering, I'll be digging deeper into my longer term thesis that I've been talked about for weeks now. I've previously wrote about this thesis from a perspective of economic history and the perspective of liquidity and finance. This time, lets look at it from a perspective of human and American history, and cycles that can be in them.
EDIT - This DD is meant to be read as a last part of a trilogy from these two previous posts with the actual data and quantitative content. Without that context, this post will basically seem like trying to use obscure theories to magically predict the future because of some prophecy. This is meant to be a theoretical / qualitative explanation of the of what was talked about in those previous posts, as well as connecting them to actions and thesises of well-known investors like Ray Dalio and Warren Buffett, who are saying very similar things. Don't bother reading this if you haven't read the first two parts of this trilogy.
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. This time, let’s take a broader look at cycles and patterns that often present itself throughout human history, and connect that to the economy and the stock market. Much of the content for this piece is taken from the Strauss–Howe generational theory, Ray Dalio’s thesis about our place in the long-term debt cycle, and Warren Buffet’s take on the same topic when he spent a few hours talking about it in the most recent Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting.
The Fourth Turning
The general idea of Strauss–Howe generational theory, or the “fourth turning” is that American history tends to repeat certain trends within every “saeculum”, or human lifespan - approximately 80 years. This is how long it typically takes for the certain historical events to start disappearing from human memory, allowing similar events to happen again. I’m not entirely sure why this theory focuses on American history specifically, and can be applied to human histories across civilizations, although until recently those cycles may not have been synchronized with each other. The theory states that history tend to occur in cycles of four “turnings”:
High - A “golden age” of a civilization. This is when there is strong unity within members of the society, with strong confidence in institutions like the government and big corporations, and weak individualism. As a collective mind, the civilization is able to work together to achieve big goals.
Awakening - People get tired of conformity, trust in institutions weaken, and there’s a strong desire for self awareness, spirituality, or authenticity. This is a time of experimentation, activism, and rebellion.
Unraveling - Confidence in institutions such as governments and large corporations are at its weakest, and individualism is at its strongest. Society fragments to polarizing groups, and public action by governments is barely able to achieve the smallest goals.
Crisis - This is when the fabric of society and existing institutions are destroyed in response to a perceived existential threat to the civilization itself. Economic distress is rampant as the economy sees defaulting sovereign debt, high unemployment, deflation or hyperinflation, or civil unrest. The crisis eventually becomes a unifying force for the previously fractured society, and the civilization comes together to solve the crisis. Civil authority and governments become trusted again, and self-sacrifices inspire people to work together as a society over self interest.
Let’s look at how this cycle played out over the past few centuries in the US.

1701-1723 High The establishment of the first British Empire. The thirteen British colonies in the Americas were all by now well established and beginning to prosper. The Glorious Revolution in Great Britain has just ended, and the result is the supremacy of the people, through Parliament, over the Crown, and a new set of rights that apply to all Englishmen.
1724-1741 Awakening The First Great Awakening, or the Evangelical Revival. People become much more devoted to their religion and a desire to convert others, including native Americans and slaves.
1742-1766 Unravelling Seven Years War (French and Indian War in the US). It was considered to be the world’s first major conflict, with initial rivalry between the European great powers spilling over to other continents. From an American perspective, this would seem as an unnecessary war caused by a rivalry between two powers far far away, causing unnecessary hardship to the settlers in America. After the war, Britain wanted to recoup some of their losses from all the money spent fighting in North America, and created new taxes, leading to the Boston Tea Party. As a result, Britain then imposed the “Intolerable Acts” to punish the colony of Massachusetts. Throughout this time, trust in the Crown within the colonies started to disappear.
1767-1791 Crisis The American Revolution - All trust and allegiance to the Crown is destroyed and replaced with new ideals.
1792-1821 High After Victory in the American Revolution, there’s a new sense of unity and pride in the newly founded nation. New institutions were created for the new country, and there was a sense of optimism, even during the War of 1812. The period after that war, and leading up to the 1824 election, was called the Era of Good Feelings, to reflect the sense of national unity and purpose within the US
1822-1842 Awakening The Second Great Awakening, similar to the first one.
1844-1860 Unraveling Sectionalism within the US - this period saw the rise in the North vs. South divide over slave states and non-slave states, and tensions revolving around it
1860-1865 Crisis American Civil War
1865-1886 High Gilded Age - Rapid economic growth in the United States through industrialization. Creation of new institutions in the form of industrial titans like Standard Oil.
1886-1908 Awakening The Third Great Awakening, similar to the first two. Also, the progressive era, which saw an activist movement to address some of problems that come with monopolies like Standard Oil, urbanization, and corruption.
1908-1929 Unravelling This period saw WWI, Prohibition, and the Roaring Twenties. During this time, there was an increasing social conflict between liberal urban and conservative rural areas, specifically about morals and what should and shouldn’t be legal (eg. Scopes trial), the rise of the KKK, and is a hallmark of consumerism, individualism, and greed.
1929-1946 Crisis The Great Depression and WWII. The New Deal destroyed many existing institutions, and replaced them with new ones. The aftermath of WWII created new global institutions, in the form of the UN, and started the American world order.
1946-1964 High The Golden Age of Capitalism / post-war economic boom
1964-1984 Awakening During this time, we saw two different types of awakening. The counterculture movement of the 1960s saw activism against the Vietnam war and the Civil Rights movement, as well as an increase in spirituality and self-awareness, which is typically associated with the youth during this period (i.e. “hippies”). During the same time, there was another religious revival - The Fourth Great Awakening.
1984-2008 Unravelling This period saw an increase of the polarization on cultural issues in America, specifically with abortion, gun control, drugs, and gay rights, between conservatives and liberals, starting with the election of Ronald Reagan. The polarization was also very heavily influenced by geography, with liberals tending to live on the coasts and big cities, and conservatives everywhere else. The polarization made it increasingly difficult for congress to enact any big changes.
2008 to somewhere between 2020 and 2030 Crisis This period started with the financial crisis, as well as the aftermath of 9/11 and the War on Terror. Add on the pandemic, and the fallout from it, and we’d likely see another mass destruction of old institutions and creation of new ones.
2020-2030 to 2040-2050 High ???
2040-2050 to 2070-2080 Awakening A Fifth Great Awakening?

The Changing Hands of World Powers
There’s also another interesting theory in the field of international relations that’s interesting and probably applicable here - the Long Cycle Theory. It basically states that international world orders and the title of the most powerful nation, is challenged every 70 to 100 years - the approximate maximum lifespan of an average human life, leading to some sort of global conflict and potentially a change in the world order as a result.
Cycles in World Leadership
The United States has survived as the World Leader for the 20th century from the threat of the Soviet Union challenging the world order. This time, it’s becoming increasingly clear that China has become a new challenger to the American world order.
Long Term Economic Cycles
Ray Dalio is famous for this being a central part of his economic thesis - about long term debt cycles, and the fact that we’re near the end of one. The summary of this idea is that the economy goes through short term and long term debt cycles. Short term debt cycles are the regular occurring business cycles you usually see once every decade, usually caused by overspending. The long term debt cycle, however, is when an entire economy becomes overleveraged, and it becomes harder and harder for a central bank to stimulate the economy. A hallmark of this happening is when interest rates hit near 0%, and they are forced to perform quantitative easing to stimulate the economy; the last time the economy’s seen anything similar to this was the Great Depression - this is called a liquidity trap. The period following this liquidity trap was an economic deleveraging, typically associated with civil unrest, revolutions, wars, and asset prices plummeting. The US economy has been seeing this since 2008 and has never been able to successfully fully deleverage the economy yet.
Another long term economic cycle theory that’s somewhat popular is the Kondratiev wave, although this field of economics is not generally accepted by most economists. The idea is that the economy goes through long-term economic cycles, lasting between 45 to 60 years, of periods of rapid economic and stock market growth fueled by technological innovations, followed by a period of stagnation.
Kondratiev Waves
Currently, we’re late in the wave created by the introduction of Information Technology, which started in the late 1970s. I’ve previously talked about this, but basically we’re near the end of this cycle as well.
So, it sounds like we’re near the end of many cycles; the generational cycle of the Strauss–Howe generational theory, the long term debt cycle, the Kondratiev Wave cycle, and possibly the beginning of the end of the Long Cycle in international relations as China begins to contend with the United States for global influence. In all of these cycles, the conclusion is clear - chaos, economic hardship, geopolitical tensions and crises. Let’s take a closer look at the stock market last time all of these cycles ended - the 1930s.
Retail Investors in the 1920s
There’s not that much solid quantitative data about retail investors and their impact on the stock market; only qualitative and anecdotal data. However, one thing is clear - retail investors pumped the market in 1929 beyond what fundamentals warranted, despite evidence of a weakening economy due to stagnating consumer spending and distress by farmers due to overproduction of wheat, and soon, the Dust Bowl. Why were they pumping stocks so much? Because they falsely believed that stocks only go up. I’ll put some excerpts from this Forbes and this Investopedia article I found talking about this to better illustrate the extent and nature of this pump.
Still there was one big anomaly in the decade preceding, the 1920s, and it remains instructive today. The American people bought stocks in unprecedented fashion. Stocks on the installment plan, stocks via investment clubs, stocks bought with capital rather than income, stocks on margin. It was a big new fad. Nothing like the participation in the market that the nation experienced in the 1920s can be found in previous eras of history.
The permanent denuding of the dollar, the reality of which first became clear in the 1920s, forced savers to find some instrument that would pay them back in the old way, in money that held its value. The choice was made to capture, via stocks, the forthcoming profits of businesses. Here would be money commensurate to what was needed to buy things in the future.
Until the peak in 1929, stock prices went up by nearly 10 times. In the 1920s, investing in the stock market became somewhat of a national pastime for those who could afford it and even those who could not—the latter borrowed from stockbrokers to finance their investments.
People were not buying stocks on fundamentals; they were buying in anticipation of rising share prices. Rising share prices simply brought more people into the markets, convinced that it was easy money. In mid-1929, the economy stumbled due to excess production in many industries, creating an oversupply. Essentially, companies were able to acquire money cheaply due to high share prices and invest in their own production with the requisite optimism.
This all sounds pretty familiar to what's going on in the stock market today; as I previously mentioned, retail investors are pouring money in at unprecedented levels. Why is this happening now, about 90 years since the last time every retail investor started pouring money in? It's the same as the reasoning behind most of the other cycles I've mentioned above - the vast majority of people who previously experienced this and would have been alive to remember the 1920s have passed away by now. With an absence of people alive to have this mistake in living memory, humanity is bound to repeat the same mistakes, ignoring the warnings from our ancestors who are no longer with us, and repeat the cycle.
There's one pair of billionaires who are old enough to remember the aftermath of the the stock market pump that led towards the 1929 crash - Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Warren would have been born right after the crash and Charlie would have been 5. Both of them entered the finance industry while the stock market was still recovering from it, and still below the 1929 highs. For anyone who watched him talk at the annual shareholder meeting, he spent a few hours talking about a similar story - one of the highs and lows of American history, with a bullish perspective. He wouldn't have spent hours talking about the 1929 crash and the fact that it took multiple decades to recover if this wasn't relevant. This is supported by the fact that he bought virtually nothing since the crash, and has been gradually selling a large portion of this publicly traded equities - first his airlines and now banks. Although he believes that we'll eventually recover (i.e. "Never bet against American", in the long run), it's clear from his actions that he sees parallels of this from the stock market he grew up in the shadow of in his childhood and doesn't want to bet for America in the short term.
EDIT - Someone pointed out this article by Ray Dalio: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-years-ray-dalio/ which basically talks about something very similar. I actually didn't even know about the existence of this article and actually wrote this before this got published, but looks like we both came to the same conclusion, and this is a shorter version of Ray Dalio's article. Recommend everyone check this out if they want a more in-depth version of this DD with more data and this this post as a tldr of it.
Weekly SPY Watch Updates
This section has absolutely nothing to do with anything I talked about above, but people apparently care about trades I'm making and what my magic markers say will happen in the stock market this week, so I'll have this section of this post dedicated to that and my updates.
I've since sold, with the exception of some VIX calls, all my short positions on SPY, and currently doing some individual plays - currently holding GSX puts and short (sold) HTZ calls, among some other smaller plays. With respect to SPY, it looks like we'll be in a new channel - this time 293-300; not sure how long we'll be staying in this channel for, but I'll be playing it by either selling short-dated iron condors or buying calls / puts when it reaches one end of the channel. While magic markers are telling me we're going to be bullish medium term, and go through 300 to new ATHs, meaning I should buy calls, I don't want to go against my own fundamentals in principle by the fact that the stock market is clearly already overvalued.
5/25 3PM - /ES at 299, might open near the top of the channel. Will need to see how we open to decide if I'm going to enter a position on SPY again.
5/25 10PM - Looks we're going to be trading on the upper half the of channel on Tuesday, with a trading range of 300-297. Might look to pick up some short-dated puts to play the channel if technicals look right on open.
5/26 Noon - Got a small amount of 5/29 ATM puts to play the channel. We opened right above the 200MA so I'm relying on this being a fake out, and not very confident about this specific play.
5/26 3:50PM - Looks like 300-302 range is acting like a resistance, heading back down in the 293-300 channel. Bearish intraday (5M, 15M) MACD => EOD dump and open lower in the channel tomorrow. Looking closely at what's going on with China.
- Wednesday (tomorrow): House votes on sanctions related to Chinese concentration camps of Uyghurs
- Thursday: China votes, and very likely passes, amendment to Basic Law in HK for "national security"
- End of Week: Trump promised that he will have a policy response, likely sanctions, for the change in HK's basic law, in addition to possibly revoking HK's special status
5/27 Market Open - Opened at the top of the resistance again, but quickly reversing. Might play out similar to yesterday
5/27 11AM - Going to wait till SPY hits 297 again and then roll my 5/29 puts I got yesterday to continue playing the channel down to 293
5/27 3:50PM - Turns out it was a EOD pump instead of dump. Oversold on 5M and 15M, so probably need to consolidate again tomorrow with a trading range of 297-302 again. Not so sure about this one because there's a solid chance this just breaks through that resistance and goes towards new ATHs. Entered into more 5/29 puts and going to hold overnight, sell if we still have positive momentum going in to open tomorrow. If we don't break 300 again tomorrow, I'm going to assume we're going to new ATHs and buy some IWM calls, hedged with QQQ puts.
5/27 6:30PM - My plan for tomorrow - see if we're actually in a 293-302 channel. There's going to be alot of uncertainty coming from China this week. If we're still above 302 by 10AM I'll probably transition towards bull positions. Most tech / strong companies are priced near their ATHs, and all the momentum coming into SPY is now coming from all the stocks that were really hit the past few months. Looking at CCL, JPM, and BA, all of whom are going towards a 1W MACD crossover
5/27 11PM - Still above this channel. Again, if we open above 302 and don't quickly reverse then clearly 300 wasn't that much of a resistance and we're headed to ATHs - next stop is 313, followed by 340. To my bears out there - the 1W MACD has already crossed over, meaning we're not going to see a rug pull any time soon, with the exception of some dramatic event happening in China. I'm not taking any medium-term bearish positions and currently just trying to play this channel, although the bullish momentum is stronger than I expected and not consolidating that much on 300 (yet). Watch out for August - that's when most medical experts agree a second lockdown is going to become evident and this bubble will pop; I still stand by my long term thesis. However, in the short term, don't trade against the trend and profit off the bubble.
5/28 9:40AM - I was wrong again. Going to sell those puts when SPY hits 302 at a small loss. We're headed to ATH
5/28 11:40AM - Overbought on 15M and 1H RSI, should see more consolidation today, and hopefully hit my 302 target to sell later today.
5/28 1PM - Stopped out of my small SPY puts, rolled that out into bullish positions on JPM, BA, and CCL. Will probably be doing SPY plays for a while, since all the technicals are pointing to a bullish rally, but only way for that to continue is for beaten down stocks like the ones mentioned, and found in IWM, to skyrocket the next few weeks. Also probably going to stop updating this thread as much.
5/28 5PM - 1H MACD is about to cross, and SPY got near 302 today, We've clearly broken the previous resistance area of 300-302, alot earlier than I was expecting; today was just a day for consolidation because RSI was overbought, now it has room to grow. MACD also acts as a resistance and typically will bounce back instead of cross if there's still bullish sentiment. I believe this is the case now, and we will also see SPY bounce up from the previous 300-302 region of resistance with it becoming support; the next level of resistance will be 313 on SPY, which is where we'll be headed soon. Haven't been holding any medium-term short positions, and am currently net long on financials and transports, which will very likely rally disproportionally if SPY continues to go up. Very well aware that this is a bubble, but I called the top wrong and trading against the trend will just lose you money.
5/28 7PM - Tomorrow will be an interesting day, Trump announced a news conference, with an unspecified time, where he will talk about actions he will do to China, potentially sanctions. There was a very small dip in the market on this news but nothing much else has happened yet. Depending on what the actions are, could be a red day tomorrow and break 302. I'll play this out intraday if we don't open low tomorrow
5/29 11AM - SPY is re-testing the 300-302 area, this time as support. Everything really depends on whatever Trump announces today regarding retaliation about China. Hard to say what can happen. If it's something extreme, like sanctions or tariffs, this could lead to another crash. Anything else would mean this SPY immediately bounces back from this support area.
5/29 1PM - Trump conference scheduled at 2PM. Will watch stock market reaction and trade with sentiment from it. If retaliation is bad enough to drop below 300, could be the rug pull all the bears have been waiting for.
5/29 2PM - Picked up some 302-300 debit spreads coming into the news conference, planning on holding this for an hour and selling by EOD
5/29 3PM - Sold puts during the speech and flipped to 304-310 calls. Looks like this wasn't enough to break through support. Going to hold these overnight, momentum looks to be turning bullish now that there's no longer any uncertainty about China, and actions are unlikely to provoke a Chinese retaliation.
5/29 4PM - Sold my short-dated calls. Coming into the weekend, it looks like next week will continue to be bullish, with 1D MACD convergence continuing, as well as the lack of any resistance until 313.
Week of Jun 1 - Jun 5 - Looking at SPY hitting 213 by end of week
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

What is the point of Futures contracts for retail traders?

I'm an options guy - hey, to each their own. Since I'm in the process of writing a series of posts on the route less travelled on options trading, I felt it would be best to get this first out of the way.
When I first came across futures contracts on stocks, it didn't make any sense to me. Futures contracts behave in exactly the same way as the underlying asset with the added complication of having exposure to interest rates (typically, you can ignore this detail - this detail becomes relevant if you want to add options to the mix, especially so with currency derivatives).
The one reason I heard of at that time (this was in 2004) - 'You get a lot of leverage with Futures!'. Sure, but this wasn't a big difference; I typically had to put down about 17% as upfront margin. IMO, this wasn't a good enough reason as this translated to a margin of 5.9x - heck, depending upon the stock, Sharekhan gave me a margin of up to 10x on even delivery trades (again, this was in 2004). If someone wanted to trade intraday, do it with stocks, why futures?
It took me a while to get the point. When one wanted to profit off a rise in an asset's value - buy the stock, let it rise, sell - rinse and repeat.
How do you profit off an asset's depreciation? You could short-sell the stock; but you had to close the position at the end of the day as there was no mechanism to borrow stocks in Indian markets. Any drop in the asset's value that happens overnight or over the weekend is beyond reach.
Entre futures contracts. These things allow someone to keep the position open for an entire month. If you had inside information of the mess that was going on at Yes Bank, short-selling the stock was a horrible way of capitalising on it, opening a short position via futures contracts was the way to do it: you can squeeze the full extent of the drop, with leverage on top of it.
Now, that little detail about exposure to interest rates being baked into the contracts, I'll get to that in the next post.
When Bitcoin was at an all time high of around $20,000 per BTC, all the Wall St banks were in a rush to offer futures contracts on bitcoin. I told everyone who was willing to listen that this was the beginning of the fall. If Bitcoin was only going to rise, why would a bank offer a product to their customers on which the bank only stands to lose money. It only made sense for the banks to sell futures on BTC if it were to crash and burn, in which case the banks stand to make a killing on these contracts.
And the banks made a killing when the crypto market crashed and burned. Nobody seemed to notice that the banks only sold BTC futures, none of them took on a short position on BTC if their customer wanted to short a BTC futures contract.
If there were no derivatives on crypto, while everyone involved stood to gain from it rising, it was in no one's interest for the asset class to crash and burn. Now, people can profit off a drop in BTC valuation.
submitted by circuit_brain to IndianStreetBets [link] [comments]

ThetaSpike - Book 50% gains in 3 days on $ANET

ThetaSpike - Book 50% gains in 3 days on $ANET
ACTION UPDATE: Closed position from initial post for net CREDIT of $130 per spread contract. Market decided that the moment this was posted was when the recovery was going to start at the expense of tech stocks. Bad break and not the afternoon and morning looking for so will trim losses to conserve capital.
Sell-to-Close 8/14 $220 Call
Buy-to-Close 8/14 $225 Call
Bid-to-Ask: $1.20-$1.60; median $1.40
Risked $320 per spread contract
Loss of $190 per spread contract
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Free ThetaSpike Opportunity - 3-day Vertical Call Debit Spread (bull spread)
Arista Networks (ANET) - Time to Spike on the move back up after Arista's Spike of an earnings.
Buy-to-Open 8/14 $220 Call
Sell-to-Open 8/14 $225 Call
Equity Price: $223.90
Bid-to-ask: $2.65-to-$3.50; median $3.10
Open positions on the same ticket for Net Debit of $3.20 or less. Bid-to-ask has a median of $3.10 at time of writing so get as good a price as you are able.
Max Value is the Spread ($225.00 - $220.00 = $5.00) achieved if ANET closes above $225 per share this Friday. However, once this spread fills, immediately set an exit to close the position for a Net CREDIT of $480 per contract, Good-'til-Canceled.
Notes: After a fantastic earnings and a 70% rise from March lows, some curbed Q3 guidance resulted in profit taking on this cloud marketing solutions player. Four days of selling off has shot it below its 30- and 60-day moving averages and after a dip this morning, the SpikeMeter is trembling up. We are seeing a bounce back in intraday volume that should be day #1 of several on its way closer to its averages and fair value estimates. We don't need 6 months to spike 50% gains here. Note that even flat trading here results in ~30% gains.
Odds:
(-178) Risk $320 per spread contract to profit $160 per spread contract in 3 days (50% gains)!
While not a sports bet and you can exit when you like, we love to recognize that it is helpful for new option traders to see max risk and max gain in this format. Option speculation trading is not investing; never risk more than you can afford. We will never recommend trading with margin here and the principal debit for a position is your max loss.
thinkorswim

Robinhood (green = buy-to-open; grey = sell-to-open)

https://preview.redd.it/km6hmmljmeg51.jpg?width=227&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0f00de18e55ce299548541acb3c477c830bb3e4c
submitted by SpikeCityMinnesota to options [link] [comments]

$DXY, $VIX, $SPX, $GLD, $TLT (Bearish Correlation)

I searched the sub for anything on $DXY and didn’t see much. Why?
$DXY, the dollar spot index, has been hanging out at ~96 lately. Last time it did this was 6/10, which was followed by a 198pt drop in /ES (S&P futures) on 6/11.
The time before that was 3/6-3/10.
Want to guess what happened from 3/11 to 3/23? The S&P lost about 875 points, or about 29%. That was the big dip that brought us to our yearly low of 2174 (/ES).
Contrasting between the 6/10 circumstance and the current circumstance? $TLT is higher. Bearish. Early March values are marginally higher (Fed hadn’t stepped in yet, so this is less useful here). In short, $TLT being higher today, despite lessening Fed intervention (check the NY Fed chart) is bearish.
Let’s look at $GLD. Steady increase since lows on 3/16 and a smoothed mathematical local min at 3/20. ATH’s right now. Why? What is driving buying of a risk-off instrument during a period of increasing/“recovering” equity values?
$GLD set a rolling yearly high of $170.86 on 7/8. It closed today at $170.12. To me, this shows a massive lack of trust in the dollar and equity prices, when compared to the last two trading days. We just had two “balance days” with decreasing intraday resistance and support levels.
So, what next?
tl;dr: all signs point to a severe market-wide correction, if we assume a correlation between previous SPY values and $DXY, $GLD, $TLT, and the $VIX.
Positions: 283 $UVXY ETN shares @$30.14
submitted by JeepingJason to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Best Futures trading platform?

I'm searching for a futures trading platforms that mainly don't charge too much for commissions. A platform that has good data feed and low latency to execute orders. I don't mind much about indicators but the overall responsiveness of the platform. I'm not sure if it's better to have an all-in-one sort of service or have things like data feed and broker from different companies. I'm thinking of going with Tradovate because of the low intraday margin they offer and low commissions which is $4.26 round trip for the e-minis and $1.12 round trip for the micros with a free membership. If there's anything better than that without having to pay too much for different services from multiple sources, what would that be? I'm thinking of buying 100+ contracts of the micros a day so adding everything up from commissions and all I don't know what broker would serve me better but I'm thinking Tradovate for now. With time I plan on paying for the $2.4k yearly membership for free commissions, though it would be better if there was a platform that didn't charge commissions or have that cost for a yearly service. What's better in the long run? What do you guys think?
submitted by ArcadeF1 to FuturesTrading [link] [comments]

How Different Nifty Strategies Traders Implementing Outlook of the Market?

How Different Nifty Strategies Traders Implementing Outlook of the Market?
People are always looking to earn money by exploring different avenues of investment. Investing in the stock market has become such a venue where people are learning about the different companies listed in the stock market. They study the company by learning about the work the company is doing and going through the fiscal data available in the public domain.
After thorough research, people decide whether to buy the share of the company or not. Many agencies help people make the decision and do all the research if the individual doesn't have time for it.

Nifty future strategies
Countless strategies are implemented by people and agencies who have been working in the stock market for a long time. One of these strategies is Nifty Futures Strategies as the name suggests the trading is done in nifty futures. It is essentially a contract on nifty futures, and the minimum lot size to trade is seventy-five units of nifty. But traders need to be very careful when trading in nifty futures and must consider few points like whether trading in an intraday or long term.
In futures, the trade is spread over a spot price, which needs to be checked by the trader before trading. Usually, the monthly spread is determined by the prevailing cost funds. Traders should avoid buying nifty futures when the prices steep premium or at a discounted price compared to the spot prices. This might be due to over positive news in the market or aggressive selling in the future.
The position in nifty future trading is that of a leveraged position. When a trader buys a Nifty in a near month, the trader's margin is around 10% for normal trade and 5% for intraday trade. It means the trader in leverage is ten times in normal trade and twenty times in intraday trade.
Leverages don't mean only your profit will get multiplied; rather even losses can be multiplied. Hence the trading in the futures should be done by enabling the stop losses & profit target. The trader should be aware of the overnight risk in the nifty future.
Even though the stop losses are put by the trader during the day, these orders don't cover the overnight risk. In nifty futures, traders don't earn dividends.
In the stock market, "Option" is a financial derivative that gives the trader the right to either hold or sell or buy an underlying asset at a pre-specified date and at a pre-specified price.
Nifty option strategies
In Nifty option strategies, there are two types of options known as the call option and put option.
● In case of the call option, buyers have the right but no obligation to buy an underlying asset like a stock, commodity, currency, etc. at a pre-specific price and pre-specific date.
● In put option, the buyer has the right but not obligation to sell an underlying asset like a stock, commodity, currency, etc. at a pre-specific price and pre-specific date.
The duration of the trade can last months. The options can also be classified into three categories based on the spot price with the strike price during the expiry date; it is known as the moneyness option. In option spread strategies is one of the simplest strategies a trader can implement. This is a multi-leg strategy which involves two or more options that has two or more option transactions.
In spread strategy, there is a bull call spread that is best implemented when the trader's outlook for a particular stock and index is not aggressive or moderate. Similarly, a bull put spread, which is also a two-leg strategy, is invoked when the view of the market is moderately bullish.
submitted by vtrender102 to u/vtrender102 [link] [comments]

Credit Spread Collateral & Margin

Hello, I currently have $6k in my trading account. My buying power is $11k.
Let's say I purchase a spread with max loss of $10k, and receive a $3k credit for this.
Does my buying power = $11k-$10k+$3k=$4k? As I am using the margin as collateral (about $5k), do I pay interest fees for holding this overnight? It is my understanding that intraday margin does not cost borrowing fees.
My broker is Interactive Brokers, and I am a Canadian resident trading US stocks/indices.
Thanks in advance!
submitted by kumarnharold to thetagang [link] [comments]

Do you want to invest in Top Companies across the world? Without extra charges & with a single demat account

Do you want trade globally, with a single demat account you can invest any global stock exchange across the world.
No need to pay extra charges. Just with a single demat account you will get multiple benefits.
All these benefits you will get with upstox.
Upstox is backed with New Offer! Get Benefits of worth ₹2000. 🎉Free premium subscription of Money Control & No brokerage charges for 30 days for intraday trading, No brokerage on delivery orders (lifetime). 🎊Open the account now for free and get all the benefits. Offer will be ended soon. Limited time offer🎁.
🤔Why to open demat account in the Upstox? 👉Because, Upstox is offering a free Demat account and takes the lowest brokerage charges than others, and they won't take any charges for delivery orders. It has the fastest servers so that the response time is very faster, trades are executed quickly. It is backed by Ratan Tata, so Upstox is a very trustworthy and reliable source to open a Demat account.
Upstox will give highest margins upto 40X, this is the one and only stock broker which provides huge leverages.
And also with this Demat account, we can trade Internationally. It will give access to more than 60 global stock exchanges across the world. Without any additional charges.
And you can earn money by referring it to your friends also. Get up to ₹500 for each successful referral. So hurry up! Open your account now only.
Click the link to Open the Free Demat Account 👉http://upstox.com/open-account/?f=Y3DJ without any physical documents, it takes 15–20 minutes of time to complete the process.
For 3-in-1 account 👉 http://upstox.com/3-in-1account/IndusStox/register?f=Y3DJ
submitted by shilpatrader to IndianStocks [link] [comments]

Do NOT trust AMP Futures/AMP Global or EliteTrader.com - they are dishonest manipulators and in bed together, also released my private email communications into a public forum. I have filed a complaint with the NFA and CFTC.

I'll try to make this as short as possible.

I got on the phone with the top guys at AMP and made sure what they advertise on their site is legit; $800 per contract intraday on the emini SP500 for accounts that exceed $100k. They assured me repeatedly that is the case, and they would NEVER change those margins. I've had convos with two managers that exceed a total of >3 hours phone time. Numerous and repeated assurances of this among a few other things. They even said that if I deposited $20 million+ they could maintain me at those same margins (!!!).
Feeling hesitant from these supposed yes men on everything, and feeling suspicious after seeing other threads written about their behavior, I reduced my wire last minute to ~$2 million (still a substantial sum).
Whaddya know, the second they received the wire, without any warning and before I even linked a platform or could make a trade, they emailed me to say they will change the margins from $800 to $6000.
When I notified a public forum of this, without ANY context, they went ahead and released my private email communications without permission. No context, no permission, those emails dont even relate to the issue at hand. They released questions I answered privately regarding the way I trade, how much money I've got in certain accounts, etc. Disgusting behavior for any organization.
Link: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/i-have-decided-to-put-a-significant-amount-of-my-money-with-amp.345379/page-3#post-5112748
Of course they deny everything, with the strangest arguments.
To make maters worse, posts on the site (Elite Trader) are being modified. Not deleted mind you, MODIFIED. You can see it when looking at my posts (there is a 'last modified' message at the bottom right of many of my posts). AMP is 'sponsored' on that site, and many individuals have complained of this before (especially on futures.io) so no surprise there either. A few individuals have also had all their posts on that thread deleted and their accounts banned.
As I said, I have filed a complaint, and hopefully they are fined. Since my messages are being modified to change the message I am communicating, I am posting here.

Uploaded also are images of the thread in its current form as of 5/30 9:45 PM PST, in case they modify it again or delete more posts (or the entire thread). EDIT: I have archived the posts, after the first initial edits by the mods. Wish I could get the originals, but I'm sure they will continue to screw with it so here are the copies:
http://archive.vn/PyIhU
http://archive.vn/RljeW
http://archive.vn/SnYfD
http://archive.vn/uPXRF
http://archive.vn/JJW5J
http://archive.vn/z3gU8
http://archive.vn/A5VVP
http://archive.vn/Jrd1n
http://archive.vn/yHSP5
submitted by DiscombobulatedRich6 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

5 intraday trading tips that can maximize your profits

Intraday trading strategies are used by investors to conduct trades on a day to day basis. As a consequence, itraday traders are prone to a higher volatility as compared to the long-term investors. But if you have the correct knowledge, you can reap serious profits whilst doing automated trading. .
If you are starting off into this new domain of trading, it's natural that you would want to learn tricks of the trade. However, you should keep in mind that merely tricks and tips wouldn't do the job as you need good intraday trading strategies as well to maek the most of your experience at the intraday trading market. Let's take a look at some of the guidelines that you should follow in order to maximimze your profits and minimize your losses.
Go for liquid stocks
You must be well aware of the fact that intraday trading encapsulates the idea of buying and selling stocks on the same day. But you must also keep in mind that for the exchange to execute these orders, there needs to be a certain level of liquidity in the market. Therefore, you must avoid small-cap and mid-cap stocks as they're not very liquid. If you do not pay attention to this, your squaring off order might not get executed, and you could be forced to take the delivery in its place.
Diversify your stocks
Ask any investor who has existed in this market long enough and he'll tell you that it's a mistake to invest all your capital in a single stock. A better option is to diversify your investments across a number of different stocks. This will minimize your risk as you wouldn't stand to lose everything if one of your stocks fall.
Define and set entry and exit price
There's a widespread phenomenon in the market known as the buyer's fallacy. What it basically means is that the stock investors sudddenly end up having a quick change of mind once they've bought a stock. People are emotional and they may regret their decision for undue reasons. You can avoid falling into this trap by setting up entry and exit price before you take up a position. This will ensure that you maintain an objective outlook and do not fall victim of emotional mood swings.
Set a stop loss level
This is, perhaps, the most important intraday trading tip that you could ask for. Setting a stop loss level is a simple but very efficient way of minimizing your losses. This is how it works: imagine that the stock that you've bought keeps falling instead of rising on the day of the trade. Stop-loss allows you to set a benchmark after which you'd square off your position on that particular stock. This acts as a safety net and protects you from having to suffer serious losses.
If you are just starting out as an intraday trader, it could be beneficial for you to adopt the 3:1 Risk to Reward Strategy. Under this strategy, the stop loss price that you should set should be 3 times lower than the price at which you'd be willing to book profit.
Booking profit after reaching the target
Fear and greed - both are your enemies in the stock market. Just like you shouldn't be too scared of taking risks to earn rewards, you also shouldn't become too greedy! While leverage and margins can help you maximize profits, they can maximize losses as well. Therefore, you need to be careful and not get greedy. Do not fall into the trap of assuming that the price would keep on rising (or falling, in case you're short-selling). But if all the signals indicate that the price would definitely rise, then it is up to you to decide what you shouldn do.
Remember to close your open positions
There are a number of intraday traders, who prefer to take the delivery of the shares if they do not meet the stock price target that they'd set for the day. This isn't really the best strategy in automated trading, as the stocks that you had bought were bought for intraday trading and they may not work well for you if you go for long-term investment.
submitted by alphabot20 to u/alphabot20 [link] [comments]

Benefits and Risks of Trading/Bitcoin trader

Benefits and Risks of Trading/Bitcoin trader

Ought to you jump in and begin using your onerous-mined bitcoins within the markets? Find out the risks and advantages initial.KEY TAKEAWAYS
The market is devoted to trading in the globe's currencies.
https://preview.redd.it/u8gle9a0m4f51.jpg?width=770&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9368e9fe9613884fb4fd0c86fb716e50319f2d53
Many brokers currently settle for bitcoin and different cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin trades benefit from the anonymity and decentralized valuation system the currency represents.
They add a replacement layer of risk trading, exacerbated by the acute volatilityStandard Forex Trade
Before you think about whether to trade using bitcoin, it's helpful to understand how a standaroretrade works.

A forex trade is simply an exchange of 1 currency for an additional at its current rate. Unlike tourists who exchange their home currency for local spending cash, forex traders are trying to form cash off the continual fluctuations in the real value of 1 currency against anothe

Imagine you're an American trader betting that the British pound can lose price compared to the U.S. dollar. This is termed trading on the British pound/U.S. dollar currency pair (GBP/USD).The Impact of Decentralization
The key distinction is that, though forex exchanges would possibly be decentralized, the currencies themselves are backed by central banks in the countries that issue them. It's the duty of those banks to stabilize the value of their currencies and keep them stable
Now think about an example of a forex trade using bitcoin. First, you open a forex trading account with a broker who accepts bitcoins. These embody AvaTrade,one? eToro, and LiteForex.a pair of? You then transfer 2 bitcoins from your digital wallet to the forex broker’s digital wallet.

If you wish to trade using bitcoin, use only a locally regulated forex brokerage. And avoid using leverage till you know what you are doing.
Assuming the present bitcoin to U.S. dollar rate is 1 bitcoin = $seven,500, your deposit of two bitcoins is value $fifteen,00zero. Now, assume that you would like to require an edge in British pounds. If the exchange rate is £zero.five = $one, you may receive £7,500. When it rate changes to 0.45, and you square off your position t.sixty five in your trading account. You have got made a tidy eleven.elevenpercent profit and you're prepared to cash out.




Despite the very fact that your bet on British pounds earned you an eleven.11% profit (from $fifteen,00zero to $16,66six.65), the fluctuation in the bitcoin to U.S. dollar rate suggests that that you sustain a loss of zero.039 bitcoin or about -two.percent. (Initial deposit of 2 bitcoins — 1.961 bitcoins = .039 bitcoin).

However, had the bitcoin to U.S. greenback exchange rate changed to 1 bitcoin = $7,000, you'd realize a benefit from both the forex trade and the bitcoin exchange. You'd have received ($16,66half dozen.65/$7,00zero) = two.381 bitcoins, a profit of nineteen.onepercent.

Increased Unpredictability
This hypothetical example illustrates the large reason to exercise caution when using digital currencies for forex trading. Even the most fashionable and widely used cryptocurrency, the bitcoin, is highly volatile compared to most traditional currencies.

Within the year ending July 24, 20twenty, the value of a bitcoin ranged from $five,532 to $eleven,982
This unpredictability means that that the risks associated with trading forex using bitcoin are that abundant larger
Beyond the exchange rate fluctuations impacting profit and loss, there are other edges and risks to consider before trading forex with bitcoin
Decentralized Vauations: A major advantage of trading forex with the bitcoin is that the bitcoin isn't tied to a central bank. Digital currencies are free from central geopolitical influence and from macroeconomic issues like country-specific inflation or interest rates.
High Leverage: Many forex brokers offer leverage for bitcoin trades. Experienced traders can use this to their profit. However, such high margins ought to also be approached with great caution as they amplify the potential for losses.
Low Deposit Amount: A trader can begin with as little as $twenty five with some bitcoin forex trading firms. A few forex trading companies have even offered promotions sort of a matching deposit quantity. Traders ought to check that the broker is legitimate and appropriately regulated.
Low Cost of Trading: Most forex brokers that settle for cryptocurrency are keeping brokerage costs terribly low to attract new shoppers.
Security: You don’t would like to reveal your bank account or mastercard details to make a bitcoin transaction. This could be a massive advantage in terms of price and monetary security.

No World Boundaries: Bitcoin transactions don't have any international boundaries. A trader primarily based in South Africa can trade forex through a broker based mostly within the United Kingdom. Regulatory challenges could stay a concern, however if both traders and brokers are willing to transact, there aren't any geographical boundaries.
Risks of Trading Forex with Bitcoin
Different Exchange Rates: Bitcoin trades on multiple exchanges and exchange rates vary. Traders must guarantee they understand that bitcoin exchange rates the forex broker can be using.

U.S. Dollar Rate Risk: While receiving bitcoin deposits from clients, almost all brokers instantly sell the bitcoins and hold the quantity in U.S. dollars. Even if a trader will not take a forex trade position immediately when the deposit, he or she remains exposed to the bitcoin-to-U.S. dollar rate risk from deposit to withdrawal.
Danger of Volatility: Historically, bitcoin prices have exhibited high volatility. Within the absence of regulations, volatility will be used by unregulated brokers to their advantage and a trader’s disadvantage. For example, assume the intraday bitcoin rate fluctuates from $five,00zero to $5,300 U.S. greenbacks per bitcoin. For an incoming deposit of two bitcoins, the unregulated broker may apply very cheap rates to credit the trader $10,00zero (2 bitcoins * $five,000 = $10,000). However, once the trader is ready to create a withdrawal, the broker might use rock bottom exchange rate. Instead of the original a pair of bitcoins deposited, the trader receives o
Security Risks Inherent to Bitcoin: Deposited bitcoins are vulnerable to theft by hacking, even from a broker’s digital wallet. To reduce this risk, rummage around for a broker who has insurance protection against theft.


Risk of Leverage: Using leverage is risky for new traders who may not perceive the exposure. This risk is not unique to cryptocurrency forex trading and comes into play in traditional forex transactions still.
Asset Category Mixing: Cryptocurrency may be a different asset class altogether and has its own valuation mechanism. Trading forex with bitcoins primarily introduces a replacement intermediate currency which will impact profit and loss in unexpected ways. Any cash that's not locked down in an exceedingly trader’s base currency is a risk.
Although cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are gaining popularity, there are still several associated risks. In forex trading, dealing in a decentralized currency that provides global transactions with no fees is a bonus. But the tradeoff is actually adding a 3rd currency to what was a trading try
Put your trading skills to the take a look at with our FREE Stock Simulator. Compete with thousands of Investopedia traders and trade your means to the top! Submit trades in an exceedingly virtual setting before you start risking your own cash. Practice trading ways thus that when you're prepared to enter the $64000 market, you've got had the practice you would like. Attempt our Stock Simulator today
https://www.cryptoerapro.com/the-bitcoin-trade
submitted by cryptoerapro to u/cryptoerapro [link] [comments]

How Different Nifty Strategies Traders Implementing Outlook of the Market?

How Different Nifty Strategies Traders Implementing Outlook of the Market?
People are always looking to earn money by exploring different avenues of investment. Investing in the stock market has become such a venue where people are learning about the different companies listed in the stock market. They study the company by learning about the work the company is doing and going through the fiscal data available in the public domain.
After thorough research, people decide whether to buy the share of the company or not. Many agencies help people make the decision and do all the research if the individual doesn't have time for it.

https://preview.redd.it/8uxgtbydkif51.png?width=1918&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6301a6a6068b6c70de27d745848ac511feab0a6
Countless strategies are implemented by people and agencies who have been working in the stock market for a long time. One of these strategies is Nifty Futures Strategies as the name suggests the trading is done in nifty futures. It is essentially a contract on nifty futures, and the minimum lot size to trade is seventy-five units of nifty. But traders need to be very careful when trading in nifty futures and must consider few points like whether trading in an intraday or long term.
In futures, the trade is spread over a spot price, which needs to be checked by the trader before trading. Usually, the monthly spread is determined by the prevailing cost funds. Traders should avoid buying nifty futures when the prices steep premium or at a discounted price compared to the spot prices. This might be due to over positive news in the market or aggressive selling in the future.
The position in nifty future trading is that of a leveraged position. When a trader buys a Nifty in a near month, the trader's margin is around 10% for normal trade and 5% for intraday trade. It means the trader in leverage is ten times in normal trade and twenty times in intraday trade.
Leverages don't mean only your profit will get multiplied; rather even losses can be multiplied. Hence the trading in the futures should be done by enabling the stop losses & profit target. The trader should be aware of the overnight risk in the nifty future.
Even though the stop losses are put by the trader during the day, these orders don't cover the overnight risk. In nifty futures, traders don't earn dividends.
In the stock market, "Option" is a financial derivative that gives the trader the right to either hold or sell or buy an underlying asset at a pre-specified date and at a pre-specified price.

https://preview.redd.it/wyeifzxekif51.png?width=1274&format=png&auto=webp&s=b21fa82ca842d4f42a851095833d55cba6ba458b
In Nifty option strategies, there are two types of options known as the call option and put option.
● In case of the call option, buyers have the right but no obligation to buy an underlying asset like a stock, commodity, currency, etc. at a pre-specific price and pre-specific date.
● In put option, the buyer has the right but not obligation to sell an underlying asset like a stock, commodity, currency, etc. at a pre-specific price and pre-specific date.
The duration of the trade can last months. The options can also be classified into three categories based on the spot price with the strike price during the expiry date; it is known as the moneyness option. In option spread strategies is one of the simplest strategies a trader can implement. This is a multi-leg strategy which involves two or more options that has two or more option transactions.
In spread strategy, there is a bull call spread that is best implemented when the trader's outlook for a particular stock and index is not aggressive or moderate. Similarly, a bull put spread, which is also a two-leg strategy, is invoked when the view of the market is moderately bullish.
submitted by vtrender102 to u/vtrender102 [link] [comments]

Invest in any stock exchange across the world with a single demat account | No additional charges

Do you want trade globally, with a single demat account you can invest any global stock exchange across the world.
No need to pay extra charges. Just with a single demat account you will get multiple benefits.
All these benefits you will get with upstox.
Upstox is backed with New Offer! Get Benefits of worth ₹2000. 🎉Free premium subscription of Money Control & No brokerage charges for 30 days for intraday trading, No brokerage on delivery orders (lifetime). 🎊Open the account now for free and get all the benefits. Offer will be ended soon. Limited time offer🎁.
🤔Why to open demat account in the Upstox? 👉Because, Upstox is offering a free Demat account and takes the lowest brokerage charges than others, and they won't take any charges for delivery orders. It has the fastest servers so that the response time is very faster, trades are executed quickly. It is backed by Ratan Tata, so Upstox is a very trustworthy and reliable source to open a Demat account.
Upstox will give highest margins upto 40X, this is the one and only stock broker which provides huge leverages.
And also with this Demat account, we can trade Internationally. It will give access to more than 60 global stock exchanges across the world. Without any additional charges.
And you can earn money by referring it to your friends also. Get up to ₹500 for each successful referral. So hurry up! Open your account now only.
Click the link to Open the Free Demat Account 👉http://upstox.com/open-account/?f=Y3DJ without any physical documents, it takes 15–20 minutes of time to complete the process.
For 3-in-1 account 👉 http://upstox.com/3-in-1account/IndusStox/register?f=Y3DJ
submitted by shilpatrader to StockMarketIndia [link] [comments]

Tradovate vs EdgeClear vs Tastyworks?

Hi all, would love some advice. I've done some research (including on this subreddit) and boiled down my options to the above three. A few points of things I'm looking for (but can't really find good info on their websites):


Thank you all in advance! Opinions appreciated!

EDIT: FMC = FCM ... oops.
submitted by aimzies to FuturesTrading [link] [comments]

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submitted by shilpatrader to StockMarketIndia [link] [comments]

Helpful Beginner ToS Interface Tips for Setting Up Charts and Indicators

Was chiming in to help with this post and I received a pile of DM's and questions, thought I'd address this to the overall subreddit as I'm sure this can help others.
This isn't a fully perfect build yet in my opinion, but I'd like to give a shout out to the many members of the Silicon Valley Options Group that helped put this together.
Alrighty then. Here's my 4 face chart set up.

https://imgur.com/gallery/HU0gNNh
~ ~ ~ ~
Meta: I've set up 4 time frames to gauge price action, going from a 5 year to a 1 year, 3 month and a 15 minute chart. Here's the underlying I'm most familiar with (SLV). We go back... 12 years. I just know how silver moves like the back of my hand since my broke college days where I first started with a 100oz bar at $13/oz.

5 year
5 year chart here. Imp. Vol to determine if I should take debit vs credit positions. In general, 20-30 vol is just perfect juiciness without insanity. However, I think higher vol is right around the corner. MACD of course. Lots of moving averages on the chart itself, 500 MA, 200 and shorter durations, there's a custom trailing indicator in the dashed gray which I use for my stops. I've evolved to really favor selling for premium because you don't have to be right to make money. Like many of us when we start, I went HAM with single-legged debit positions and of course, we size it incorrectly relative to our portfolio and risk too much for way too little return—and get nuked. I'm not wrong, the market is wrong! Yea, I got sick of losing money. Selling premium instead is way more forgiving. Like many of us, we start selling credit via put-writes/covered calls or cash secured puts (lord have mercy on you if you sell naked), then you can evolve to do wheel of fortune combo of put-writes and cash secured puts. Later, you get more capital efficient via credit spreads and such. Generally, my short position usually has an 80% probability of expiring OTM or better. I've finally humbled myself to be less reckless and pick up wins of singles and doubles instead of swinging for the fences all the time. Like Tom Sosnoff teaches us, trade small, trade often. That's helped me lower my losses tremendously, rack up way more experience in the process and move with the markets much better. Plus, I'm doing really short DTE these days, weeklies and maybe 2 weeks if I'm more comfortable. In this market, I think it's insane to hold or sell too far out.

1 year
1 year here. I'm not too thrilled with PercentR, might phase out. I'm playing with other indicators in my sandbox account to figure out a better indicator for this duration. Volume + MACD to get a better gauge of action.

3 month
I'm mainly in this duration the most. For silver, the red dashed line is the support and resistance of the current channel that's been verified many times in the past. OnBalanceVolume is life changing, after MACD, it's probably my favorite indicator. It replaced RSI which just gave me too much vague information. I use to pair this with volume profile/market profile (MonkeyBars in ToS) but it just made everything too busy, I do like to see where people made their moves though. The dotted lines of green, magenta and red (god, I would hate to trade if I'm colorblind), are Person's Pivots. He's spoken at the SVOG group on Seasonality and I've been hooked ever since. ATR is really helpful. It helps me verify if the market maker's 1 sigma move is correct or not. Generally, if ATR is less than 1 sigma, I'm pretty safe when selling premium. This is a key metric for building a margin of safety as an options seller.

15 min
15 minute chart, I don't look at this too much unless I'm opening or closing a poition. It generally helps me figure out intraday entries/exits. This use to have less vol and be more stable, but I think with Covid and the huge explosion of retail trading (thanks to RobinHood amateurs), it's gotten a lot choppier as people are playing on rumors and all kinds of weird stuff or probably looking up /wallstreetbets or some shit. I need to figure out what else to add besides MACD that my other durations don't provide, still figuring it out. Person's pivots really helps here. (Green is normal, magenta is an upper bound value and magenta is sort of an abnormally high level. It's based on Fibonacci retracements (I think default is 5 lines? or 7? Forgot. John Person's has a proprietary formula to make it 3 which helps.) I don't really day trade cause I still work full-time but I'm sure this set up could be expanded to do well with that. MonkeyBars (volume/market profile) would be helpful here. After April, I like the idea of no overnight risk.

~ ~ ~ ~
Hope that helps. If you like this and want to take this interface for a spin, feel free to message me and I'm happy to share the link. Please save your current settings/studies/etc. in case you prefer your prior calibration.
Kick ass out there and sell volatility like a mofo.
Remember, skylines are built by firms that sell insurance. The best time to sell volatility is after a storm. Go do your thing folks.
submitted by slamdunktiger86 to options [link] [comments]

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🤔Why to open demat account in the Upstox? 👉Because, Upstox is offering a free Demat account and takes the lowest brokerage charges than others, and they won't take any charges for delivery orders. It has the fastest servers so that the response time is very faster, trades are executed quickly. It is backed by Ratan Tata, so Upstox is a very trustworthy and reliable source to open a Demat account.
Upstox will give highest margins upto 40X, this is the one and only stock broker which provides huge leverages.
And also with this Demat account, we can trade Internationally. It will give access to more than 60 global stock exchanges across the world. Without any additional charges.
And you can earn money by referring it to your friends also. Get up to ₹500 for each successful referral. So hurry up! Open your account now only.
Click the link to Open the Free Demat Account 👉http://upstox.com/open-account/?f=Y3DJ without any physical documents, it takes 15–20 minutes of time to complete the process.
For 3-in-1 account 👉 http://upstox.com/3-in-1account/IndusStox/register?f=Y3DJ
submitted by shilpatrader to IndianStocks [link] [comments]

Intraday Trading Margin Rules SEBI Rule on Intraday Leverage /Margin from August - Explained - 20 July 2020 Circular SEBI new circular on intraday trading margin Intraday - What is Margin or Leverage and how to use it ... What is Margin Trading or Intraday Trading?[HINDI] [ TOP RATED ]

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Intraday Trading Margin Rules

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