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Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter. Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic! Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below. Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense. Part III
Squeezes and other risks
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
Squeezes and other risks
We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.
Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem. This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week. For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.
Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity. The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class. A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone. There's a reason for the car, don't worry Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price. If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point. To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price. Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble. Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it. The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard. Incredible event Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.” If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely. This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze. For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts. A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me: Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.
Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy. Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite. A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012. The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’. They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally. Then this happened. Something that changed FX markets forever The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%. Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.
We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care? Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care. Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable. To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on. On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy. We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like. A carry trade position clear-out in action Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful. The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT"). This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market. Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy. You can find the data online for free and download it directly here. Raw format is kinda hard to work with However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”. But you can easily get visualisations You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful. Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information. As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning. For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back? A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity. For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?” In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit. If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.
Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are. Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large. Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem. Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue. Chart from TradingView So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together. The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each. There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio. A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance. But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done? For example:
You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return. The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction. It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade. Flat is a position. Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it. Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month. Be strict with yourself and walk away Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first. Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period. Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture. Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal. When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.
That's a wrap on risk management
Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback. Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results. Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below. News Trading Part I
Why use the economic calendar
Reading the economic calendar
Knowing what's priced in
First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
Data surprise index
Using recent events to predict future reactions
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
The mysterious 'position trim' effect
Some key FX releases
*** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
You've probably been hearing a lot about Bitcoin recently and are wondering what's the big deal? Most of your questions should be answered by the resources below but if you have additional questions feel free to ask them in the comments. It all started with the release of the release of Satoshi Nakamoto's whitepaper however that will probably go over the head of most readers so we recommend the following videos for a good starting point for understanding how bitcoin works and a little about its long term potential:
Limited Supply - There will only ever be 21,000,000 bitcoins created and they are issued in a predictable fashion, you can view the inflation schedule here. Once they are all issued Bitcoin will be truly deflationary. The halving countdown can be found here.
Open source - Bitcoin code is fully auditable. You can read the source code yourself here.
Accountable - The public ledger is transparent, all transactions are seen by everyone.
Decentralized - Bitcoin is globally distributed across thousands of nodes with no single point of failure and as such can't be shut down similar to how Bittorrent works. You can even run a node on a Raspberry Pi.
Censorship resistant - No one can prevent you from interacting with the bitcoin network and no one can censor, alter or block transactions that they disagree with, see Operation Chokepoint.
Push system - There are no chargebacks in bitcoin because only the person who owns the address where the bitcoins reside has the authority to move them.
Low fee scaling - On chain transaction fees depend on network demand and how much priority you wish to assign to the transaction. Most wallets calculate on chain fees automatically but you can view current fees here and mempool activity here. On chain fees may rise occasionally due to network demand, however instant micropayments that do not require confirmations are happening via the Lightning Network, a second layer scaling solution currently rolling out on the Bitcoin mainnet.
Borderless - No country can stop it from going in/out, even in areas currently unserved by traditional banking as the ledger is globally distributed.
Portable - Bitcoins are digital so they are easier to move than cash or gold. They can even be transported by simply memorizing a string of words for wallet recovery (while cool this method is generally not recommended due to potential for insecure key generation by inexperienced users. Hardware wallets are the preferred method for new users due to ease of use and additional security).
Bitcoin.org and BuyBitcoinWorldwide.com are helpful sites for beginners. You can buy or sell any amount of bitcoin (even just a few dollars worth) and there are several easy methods to purchase bitcoin with cash, credit card or bank transfer. Some of the more popular resources are below, also check out the bitcoinity exchange resources for a larger list of options for purchases.
Here is a listing of local ATMs. If you would like your paycheck automatically converted to bitcoin use Bitwage. Note: Bitcoins are valued at whatever market price people are willing to pay for them in balancing act of supply vs demand. Unlike traditional markets, bitcoin markets operate 24 hours per day, 365 days per year. Preev is a useful site that that shows how much various denominations of bitcoin are worth in different currencies. Alternatively you can just Google "1 bitcoin in (your local currency)".
Securing your bitcoins
With bitcoin you can "Be your own bank" and personally secure your bitcoins OR you can use third party companies aka "Bitcoin banks" which will hold the bitcoins for you.
If you prefer to "Be your own bank" and have direct control over your coins without having to use a trusted third party, then you will need to create your own wallet and keep it secure. If you want easy and secure storage without having to learn computer security best practices, then a hardware wallet such as the Trezor, Ledger or ColdCard is recommended. Alternatively there are many software wallet options to choose from here depending on your use case.
If you prefer to let third party "Bitcoin banks" manage your coins, try Gemini but be aware you may not be in control of your private keys in which case you would have to ask permission to access your funds and be exposed to third party risk.
Note: For increased security, use Two Factor Authentication (2FA) everywhere it is offered, including email! 2FA requires a second confirmation code to access your account making it much harder for thieves to gain access. Google Authenticator and Authy are the two most popular 2FA services, download links are below. Make sure you create backups of your 2FA codes.
As mentioned above, Bitcoin is decentralized, which by definition means there is no official website or Twitter handle or spokesperson or CEO. However, all money attracts thieves. This combination unfortunately results in scammers running official sounding names or pretending to be an authority on YouTube or social media. Many scammers throughout the years have claimed to be the inventor of Bitcoin. Websites like bitcoin(dot)com and the btc subreddit are active scams. Almost all altcoins (shitcoins) are marketed heavily with big promises but are really just designed to separate you from your bitcoin. So be careful: any resource, including all linked in this document, may in the future turn evil. Don't trust, verify. Also as they say in our community "Not your keys, not your coins".
Where can I spend bitcoins?
Check out spendabit or bitcoin directory for millions of merchant options. Also you can spend bitcoin anywhere visa is accepted with bitcoin debit cards such as the CashApp card. Some other useful site are listed below.
Mining bitcoins can be a fun learning experience, but be aware that you will most likely operate at a loss. Newcomers are often advised to stay away from mining unless they are only interested in it as a hobby similar to folding at home. If you want to learn more about mining you can read more here. Still have mining questions? The crew at /BitcoinMining would be happy to help you out. If you want to contribute to the bitcoin network by hosting the blockchain and propagating transactions you can run a full node using this setup guide. If you would prefer to keep it simple there are several good options. You can view the global node distribution here.
Just like any other form of money, you can also earn bitcoins by being paid to do a job.
You can also earn bitcoins by participating as a market maker on JoinMarket by allowing users to perform CoinJoin transactions with your bitcoins for a small fee (requires you to already have some bitcoins.
The following is a short list of ongoing projects that might be worth taking a look at if you are interested in current development in the bitcoin space.
One Bitcoin is quite large (hundreds of £/$/€) so people often deal in smaller units. The most common subunits are listed below:
one bitcoin is equal to 100 million satoshis
1,000 per bitcoin
used as default unit in recent Electrum wallet releases
1,000,000 per bitcoin
colloquial "slang" term for microbitcoin (μBTC)
100,000,000 per bitcoin
smallest unit in bitcoin, named after the inventor
For example, assuming an arbitrary exchange rate of $10000 for one Bitcoin, a $10 meal would equal:
For more information check out the Bitcoin units wiki. Still have questions? Feel free to ask in the comments below or stick around for our weekly Mentor Monday thread. If you decide to post a question in /Bitcoin, please use the search bar to see if it has been answered before, and remember to follow the community rules outlined on the sidebar to receive a better response. The mods are busy helping manage our community so please do not message them unless you notice problems with the functionality of the subreddit. Note: This is a community created FAQ. If you notice anything missing from the FAQ or that requires clarification you can edit it here and it will be included in the next revision pending approval. Welcome to the Bitcoin community and the new decentralized economy!
Necessary Disclaimer: no rule breaking intended. No price manipulation intended. I only want to share verifiable facts/links and my analysis. If I am doing anything against the rules please let me know and I will do my best to fix it ASAP. I trade crypto, including LINK, and I am currently short on LINK. This is not financial advice; this is just for my own record and to start a discussion for anyone who might want more transparency around LINK.
I believe there is a lot of misinformation, uncertainty, and unanswered questions about the LINK token, the Chainlink ecosystem, the SmartContract parent company. I also believe that LINK's current price is unjustified based on fundamental factors like usage/business case/current customers/future potential. So I'm raising some points and asking some questions. What is this post? Why should I care? How do I use it? Read or skim it. It's about the LINK token, the Chainlink ecosystem, and the parent company SmartContract. It's about why I believe the price of the LINK token may be currently driven mostly by hype and not backed by standard market fundamentals like usage/economics. Update 9 AUG: reorganizing, rewriting this post and moving supporting data/sources into "appendix" comments below on this post. The previous versions of this post and my comments elsewhere were too emotionally charged and caused more division rather than honest, evidence-based, productive discussion and I sincerely apologize for that. I have now rewritten it and will continue to update it.
Threshold signatures, staking, on-chain SLAs: How real are these, is there a roadmap, how will this benefit users, is there any evidence of users currently *wanting* to use chainlink but needing these features and actively waiting for Chainlink to launch these? Staking: for there to be a valid incentive for users to stake LINK, it has to return around 5% annually because anything substantially under that would have users putting their money elsewhere (https://www.stakingrewards.com/cryptoassets) (not counting speculative capital gains in terms of LINK's price, but price gain per token/coin applies to all other crypto projects as well). Currently, for stakable cryptos, around 30-80% of their total supply is staked, and a good adjusted reward is on the order of 5% as well (some actually negative, some 10%+). The promise of staking incentivises people to buy and hold more LINK tokens (again, many other crypto projects have staking already live). That 5% reward will ultimately have to come from the customers who pay Chainlink oracle nodes to use their services, so it's an extra 5% fee for them. Of course, in the near future, the staking rewards *could* be subsidized by the founders' reserve wallets. Threshold signatures: addressed below in a comment. On-chain SLAs: [TODO] Here's supposedly Chainlink's agile/project planning board. (TODO: verify that it is indeed Chainlink's, and then analyse it) https://www.pivotaltracker.com/n/projects/2129823
I manually traced EVERY single inbound transaction/source of funds for the above 4 (not counting #1 as 10 LINK is negligible). 2 & 3 are 99.99%+ genesis-funded, being ACTIVELY topped up by a genesis wallet, last tx 4 days ago, 500,000 LINK. #4 has been funded 36 times over the past year and a half (that's 36 manual exports and I did them all). They all come from the 0x27158..., 0x2f0acb..., and https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x1f9e26f1c050b5c018ab0e66fcae8e4394eb0165 (another address like the 0x2f0acb that I went through and checked EVERY SINGLE inbound source of funds, and it's also >99.9% genesis-funded - one tx from Binance for 6098 LINK out of a total ~6,560,000 inbound LINK from genesis wallets), and two other addresses linked to Binance (0x1b185c8611d157a67d9a9d5261b0d2bd52c0bb78, 10,000 LINK and 0x039ac18afe298747c51c85e7c8f0d67c327f3883, 1,000,000 LINK) The 0x039ac... address funded the "Chainlink: Aggregator" address with 127,900 LINK, and the 0x1b185... with about ~9,600 LINK). So yes, it's technically possible that someone not related to Chainlink paid for the ETH / USD price feed because some funds do come from Binance. However, they only come from two distinct addresses. Surely for "240+" claimed partnerships, more than TWO would pay to use Chainlink's MOST POPULAR price feed? That is, unless they don't pay directly but to another address and then Chainlink covers this one from their own wallets. I will check if that's in line with Chainlink's whitepaper, but doesn't that throw doubt on the whole model of end-users paying to use oracles/aggregators, even if it's subsidized? I provide you this much detail not to bore you but to show you that I went through BY HAND and checked every single source (detailed sources in Appendix B) of funds for the OFFICIAL, Chainlink-listed "ETH/USD" aggregator that's supposedly sponsored by 10 DeFi partners (Synthetix, LoopSpring, OpenLaw, 1inch, ParaSwap, MCDEX, FuturesSwap, DMM, Aave, The Force Protocol). Yet where are the transactions showing that those 10 partners have EVER paid for this ETH/USD oracle? Perhaps the data is there so what am I missing? This ETH/USD aggregator has transferred out ~76,000 LINK to I guess the data providers in increments of .33 LINK. It has 21 data providers responding. I will begin investigating the data providers themselves soon. And those middle addresses like 0x1f9e26... and 0x2f0acb...? They have transferred out hundreds of thousands if not millions of LINK to exchanges. And that's just ONE price pair aggregator. Chainlink has around 40 of these (albeit this one's one of the more popular ones). SNX / ETH aggregator is funded 100% by genesis-sourced wallets, only 3 inbound transactions: https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0xe23d1142de4e83c08bb048bcab54d50907390828 Some random examples (for later, ignore these for now) *********** https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x039ac18afe298747c51c85e7c8f0d67c327f3883 bought 1,000,000 LINK from Binance in Sept 12 & 15, 2019. (one of the possible funding sources for the ETH / USD aggregator example above) This address got 500,000 LINK from 0x27158... and has distributed them into ~5-10,000 LINK wallets that haven't had any out transactions yet https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x5bcf3edc0bb7119e35f322ba40793b99d4620f1e ************** Another example with an unnamed aggregator-node-like wallet that was only spun up 5 days ago, Aug 5: https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x2cbfd29947f774b8cf338f776915e6fee052f236 It was funded 2,000 LINK SOLELY by the 0x27158... wallet and has so far paid out ~500 LINK in 0.43 LINK amounts to 9 wallets at a time. For example, this is one of the wallets it cashes out to: https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x64fe692be4b42f4ac9d4617ab824e088350c11c2#tokenAnalytics That wallet extremely consistently collects small amounts of LINK since Oct 2019. It must be a data provider because a lot of Chainlink named wallets pay it small amounts of LINK regularly. It has transferred out 20 times. The most recent transfer out: https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0xc8c30fa803833dd1fd6dbcdd91ed0b301eff87cf which then immediately transferred to the named "1inch.exchange" wallet, so I assume this was a "cash-out" transaction. It has cashed out via this address a lot. Granted, it also has transfer-out transactions that haven't (yet) ended up in an exchange wallet, eg https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x88e5353a73f38f25a9611e6083de6f361f9b537b with a current balance of 3000 LINK. This could be a user's exchange wallet, ready to be sold, or could be something else. No way for me to tell as there are no out txs from it.
LINK overall transaction, volume, and tx fees
This is to understand how much $ moves through the LINK ecosystem through: nodes, data providers, reserve wallets, wallets linked to exchanges, others. A typical aggregator node tx (payout?): https://etherscan.io/tx/0xef9e8e6dd94ebe9bbac8866f18c2ea0a07408ced1aa77fa04826043eaa55e772 This is their ETH/USD aggregator paying out 1 LINK to each of 21 addresses. Value of 21 LINK ~= $210. Total eth tx fees: .233 ETH (~$88.5, ~42% of the total tx value. If LINK was $4.2 instead of $10, the tx fees would be 100% of the value of the tx). Transactions like this happen every few minutes, and the payout amounts are most often 0.16, 0.66, 1.0, and 2.0 Link. Chainlink’s node/job listing site, https://market.link, lists 86 nodes, 195 feeds, 801 jobs, ~1,080,000 job runs (I can’t tell if this is over the past 2 months or 1.5 years). Only 20 nodes have over 1000 job runs, and 62 nodes have ZERO runs. Usual job cost is listed as 0.1 link, but the overall payout to the nodes is 10-20 times this. The nodes then cash out usually through a few jump addresses to exchanges. Some quick maths: (being generous and assuming it’s 1mil jobs every 2 months = ~6mil link/year = $60,000,000 revenue a year. This is the most generous estimate towards link’s valuation I’ve found so far. If we ignore the below examples where on multi-node payouts the tx fees are more than the node revenue itself, then it’s almost in line with an over-valued (but real) big tech company. For example, one of the latest CHF/USD job runs paid 0.1 LINK to 9 addresses (data providers?) - total $14.4 payout - and paid 0.065 ETH ($24.5) in fees. That’s a $10.1 LOSS on a $14.4 revenue: https://etherscan.io/tx/0xa6351bab810b6864bfebb0f6e1e3bde3c8856f8aac3ba769dd2e6d1a39c0d23f Linkpool’s (one of the biggest node operators) “ETH-USD CryptoCompare” job costs 0.1 link and has 33 runs in the past 24 hours (once every ~44min), total ~78,000 runs since May 30 2019 (once every ~8min). https://market.link/jobs/64bb0845-c4e1-4681-8853-0b5aa7366101/runs (PS cryptocompare has a free API that does this. Not sure why it costs $1 at current link prices to access an API once)
Top 100 wallets (0.05% of ~186,000 total) hold 83% of tokens. 8 wallets each hold over 1% of total, 58 hold over 0.1%. Of these 58, 9 are named exchange/lending pool wallets. For comparison, for Tether (TUSD), the top 100 wallets (0.006% of ~1,651,000 total) hold 35.9% of the supply. 3 addresses hold over 1% of the supply and 135 hold over 0.1%. Of these 135, at least 15 are named exchange/lending pool wallets. LINK’s market cap is $3.5B (or $10B fully diluted, if we count the foundedev-controlled tokens, which we should as there's nothing preventing them from being moved at a moment's notice). Tether’s is $6.9B. Tether has 10 times more addresses and less distribution inequality. Both LINK and Tether are ERC20 tokens, and even if we temporarily ignore any arguments related to management/roadmap/teams etc, Tether has a clear, currently functional, single use case: keep 1 USDT = $1 USD by printing/burning USDT (and yet as of April 2019, only 74% of Tether's market cap is backed by real funds - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency))). Given that Chainlink's market cap is now 50% bigger than Tether's, surely by now there's AT LEAST one clear, currently functional use case for LINK? What is it? Can we *see* it happening on-chain?
Chainlink’s actual deliverable products
"What do I currently get for my money if I buy LINK 1) as an investor and 2) as a tech business/startup thinking of using oracles?” Codebase (Chainlink’s github has around 140-200,000 lines of code (not counting html/css). What else is not counted in this? Town crier? Proprietary code that we don't know about yet? How much CODING has Chainlink done other than what's on github? Current network of oracles - only ~20 active nodes - are there many more than the ones listed on market.link and reputation.link? If so, would be nice to know about these if we're allowed! Documentation - they have what seems like detailed instructions on how to launch and use oracle nodes (and much more, I haven't investigated yet) (TODO this part more - what else do they offer to me as an end consumer, and eg as a tech startup needing oracle services that I can’t code myself?)
Network utilization statistics:
Etherscan.io allows csv export of the first 5000 txs from each day. From Jul 31 to Aug 6 2020, I thus downloaded 30,000 tx from midnight every day to an average of 7:10am (so 24 hour totals are 3.34x these numbers if we assume the same network utilization throughout the day). (Summary of all LINK token activity on the ETH blockchain from 31.07 to 06.08, first 5000 txs of each day (30k total) shown Appendix A comment below this post.) If we GENEROUSLY assume that EVERY SINGLE transaction under 10.0 LINK is ACTUAL chainlink nodes doing ACTUAL work, that’s still under 0.1% of the LINK network’s total volume being used for ACTUAL ecosystem functioning. The rest is speculation, trading, node funding by foundedev wallets, or dumping to exchanges (anything I missed?) Assuming the above, the entire turnover of the actual LINK network is currently (18,422 LINK) * ($10/LINK) * (3.34 as etherscan.io’s data only gives first 5000 tx per day which averages to 7:10am) * (52 wk/year) = USD $31,995,329 turnover a year. Note: the below paragraph is old analysis using traditional stock market Price/Earnings ratios which several users have now pointed out isn't really applicable in crypto. I leave it for the record. Assuming all of that is profit (which it’s not given tx fees at the very least), LINK would need a PE ratio (Price/Earnings) of 100 times to justify its current (undiluted) valuation of $3.5 billion of 300 if you count the other 65% of tokens that haven’t been dumped by the founders/devs yet. For comparison, common PE ratios are 32 (facebook), 29 (google), 37 (uber), 20 (twitter on a good year), 10 (good hedge fund returning 10% annual).
Thoughts on DeFi & yield-farming - [TODO]
Why would exchanges who do their due diligence list LINK, let alone at a leverage? 1) that's their business, they take a cut of every transaction, overhyped or not, 2) they're not safe from listing openly bearish tokens like EIDOS (troll token that incentivized users to make FAKE transactions, response to EOS) https://www.coindesk.com/defi-yield-farming-comp-token-explained The current ANNUAL yield on liquidity/yield farming is something like 2% on STABLE tokens like USDC and TETHER which at least have most of their supply backed by real-world assets. If Chainlink LINK staking is to be successful, they'll have to achieve at LEAST that same 2% at end-state. IF LINK is in bubble territory and drops, that's a lot of years at 2% waiting to recoup losses.
SmartContract Team & Past Projects
Normally I don't like focussing on people because it leads too easily to ad-hominem attacks on personality rather than on technology/numbers as I've done above, but I came across this and didn't like what I saw. Steve Ellis, SmartContract's current CTO, co-founded and worked in "Secure Asset Exchange" from 2014 to 2016. They developed the NXT blockchain, issued 1,000,000,000 NXT tokens (remind you of anything?), NXT was listed end of 2013 and saw 3 quick 500%-1000% pumps and subsequent dumps in early in mid 2014, and then declined to . SecureAE officially shut down in Jan 2016. Then at some point a company called Jelurida acquired the rights to NXT (presumably after SecureAE?), then during the 2017 altcoin craze NXT pumped 300 times to a market cap of $1.8 BILLION and then dumped back down 100 times and now it's a dead project with a market cap of $13 million. https://www.linkedin.com/in/steveellis0606/ https://trade.secureae.com/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/nxt/ https://www.jelurida.com/news/lawsuit-against-apollo-license-violations As an investor or business owner, would you invest/hire a company whose co-founders/CTO's last project was a total flop with a price history chart that's textbook pump-and-dump behaviour? (and in this case, we KNOW the end result - 99% losses for investors) If you're Google/Oracle/SWIFT/Intel, would you partner with them?
Open questions for the Chainlink community and investors:
Network activity: Are there any other currently active chainlink nodes other than those listed on market.link and reputation.link? If so, is there a list of them with usage statistics? Do they use some other token than LINK and thus making simple analytics of the LINK ERC20 token not an accurate representation of Chainlink’s actual activity? If the nodes listed on the two sites above ARE currently the main nodes, then
PR, partnership announcements: Why is the google tweet still pinned to the top of Chainlink’s twitter? Due to the frequently circulated Chainlink promotion material (https://chainlinkecosystem.com/) that lists Google as one of the key partners, this tweet being pinned is potentially misleading as there isn't anything in there to merit calling Google a "collaborator" or "partner" - just that blockchains/oracles *can* use Google's APIs (but so can most software in the world). Is there something else going on with the SmartContract-Google relationship that warrants calling Google a partner that we're simply not aware of yet?
By buying LINK, what backs YOUR money: If you have bought and currently hold LINK tokens, how comfortable are you that the future promise of your investment growing is supported on verifiable business and technological grounds versus pure, parabolic hype? If after reading this post you still are, I kindly ask you to reply and show how even one of the points I provided is either incorrect or not applicable, and I will edit my post and include your feedback in the relevant section as I have already done from other users.
What have I missed? Of course not 100% of what I've said is infallible truth. I am a real human, and I have plenty of biases and blind spots. Even if what I've provided is technically correct, there may be other much more important info that I've missed that eclipses what I've provided here. Ask yourself: if the current hype around LINK is indeed valid and points to a $100/$1000 future LINK price, then Where’s Chainlink’s missing financial/performance/usage evidence to justify LINK’s current valuation of $10+?
For your consideration, I have provided evidence with links that you can follow and verify, and draw your own conclusions. I have made my case as to why I believe the LINK token is currently priced much higher than evidence supports, and I ask you to peer-review my analysis and share your thoughts with me and with the wider LINK/crypto community. Thank you for your time, I realize this is a long post. All questions and feedback welcome, feel free to comment or PM. I won't delete/censoblock (except for personal threats, safety considerations etc). I am a real human but I am not revealing my true identity for obvious privacy/harassment reasons. (If anyone is wondering about my credentials ability to add 2+2 and work with basic spreadsheets: I have previously won a math competition in a USA state, I won an English-speaking country's physics olympiad, my university education is in mathematical physics/optimization engineering, and I worked for a few years in a global manufacturing company doing data analytics, obviously I'm not posting my CV here to verify that but I promise you it's the truth) I’m not looking to spread neither FUD, nor blind faith, nor pure hype, and I want an honest transparent objective discussion. I personally believe more that LINK is overvalued, but my beliefs have evolved and may continue to do so as I research more and understand more about Chainlink, LINK, Ethereum, DeFi, and other related topics, and as I incorporate YOUR feedback. If you think I haven't disclosed something, ask. As always, this is not financial advice and I am not liable for anything that may happen as a result of you reading this!
Tier list of trading strategies from easiest to hardest for beginners
I’m bored so I decided to help out the noobs that don’t know what they should learn. All of these can make lots of money but some of them are way harder to master. I trade crypto but I imagine this works with anything. Brain dead easy tier:
trading with trend entering at key support or resistance (major fib level, 4 hour Bolinger band, historical support, or just a clean round number usually works)
Explanation: layer your buys or shorts around a level. The first time a wick drops through it, it’ll snap down, fill as many of your orders as it will, then virtually always bounces up a ways. Close after the bounce. This works for shorts too at resistance. You can start making a profit doing this with almost no experience at all.
Building a swing position with the trend ( when the weekly and daily charts are going the same direction you are safely in a trend.)
Explanation: let’s say we are in a bullish trend. One morning it drops a few percent. Buy some contracts but leave a lot of room for error. The next day it pumps? Great sell them. It goes down instead? Add to the position. Keep doing this until the next time it pumps and cash in. Don’t worry until the trend breaks on a macro level (weekly chart or higher) and if that happens take the loss and don’t over think it, just start building the opposite direction. That may sound risky but it’s really pretty hard to fuck up, things retrace. Tier 2: easy tier but requires some understanding of what you’re doing
Longing after a dump
Explanation. It’s pretty simple. You see on a chart that something has been dropping for hours? Just wait for it to stop actively dropping and market buy. It pretty much always retraces after everyone realizes the bears can’t keep pushing it down for now.
Explanation: look at your 15 minute chart (or 5, or 1 hour, or wherever it’s ranging on the clearest) with Bolinger bands on. Has it been to the same top and bottom more than once? Just set limit orders at both ends of the Bolinger band and wait for them to fill. If it breaks out of the range, close at a small loss. Otherwise keep going until it breaks out of the range. You can make an absolutely stupid amount of money doing this because everyone else is waiting to enter on the breakout.
Waiting for a good entry on a macro chart.
Explanation: this sounds dumb but it’s actually how The Boot turned $5,000 into 3,000,000 in 18 months. Just look at the structure of the daily chart whenever it’s in a down trend, it will usually conform to a specific pattern. As soon as that pattern breaks with a close outside the pattern, enter a long. If it falls back in, close at a loss and wait for it to break again to enter. Eventually it’s going to pump like 5+% in one day when it breaks out for real and each time it tries to break and falls back in it makes the likelihood that the next one is real even higher. You can take your profit immediately or wait for a clear rejection. This works even better on higher timeframe charts but obviously you get fewer chances.
trading against the trend at key support and resistance levels
Explanation: key resistances and supports almost always hold No matter what the trend. You can use these to make money the same way as in the trend as long as you’re able to tell when it isn’t going to hold that time or you’re able to get out quickly when it doesn’t. Medium difficulty tier:
Shorting after a pump
Explanation: same concept as longing after a dump but it’s harder because top patterns are more nuanced and require a bit more experience to handle. Also pumps are just inherently more unpredictable so at the very least start with small positions or you might get fucked if you can’t tell when a top isn’t the top. But in general though, after a breakout candle, there’s almost always a pullback of some kind so if you don’t horribly miscall the top of the breakout you’ll be able to close below your entry.
Trading small timeframe reversal patterns.
Explanation: there are some reversal patterns that work on the 5 minute or 15 minute that are so reliable you can almost 100x them when you see them. double engulfings, mini Adam and eves, etc. however until you learn when the pattern is actually the pattern you’ll make some mistakes
Trading prebreakout and prebreakdown patterns.
Explanation: similarly to reversal patterns, certain patterns form on the 5 and 15 before almost every major drop or pump. The trick is to see them coming before it’s so obvious that it’s too late to enter. You have a window for sure, but it takes a bit of practice. Hard tier:
Trading pre breakout and breakdown patterns on medium timeframes.
Explanation: just like shorter time frames, the 1 hour, 4 hour, etc form reliable patterns that will give you many percent of profit if you can identify them before almost every major movement. They are however more difficult to spot and it’s less easy to see when they aren’t going to hold, so this one takes more practice.
Knife catching the top and bottom
Explanation: before the dump or pump has finished, you can usually get an idea of where it’s going to end up based on the orderbook and the charts and the rest of the TA. Doing this has a risk high reward because you’ll get at least a full percent more of movement if you do it right but if you don’t you better know what the fuck you’re doing.
Trading with the middle range trend.
Explanation: so even when you aren’t breaking out or down, the candles will give you a pretty good idea of what direction the price is likely to range over to using the 1 hour, 2 hour, 4 hour, etc all combined in your head and weighted based on how clear the pattern is on each chart and how they can best fit together. Probably 80% reliable at best. Pros only:
Using candle patterns to identify the next movement during extremely choppy markets
Explanation: this is hard and inherently risky no matter your level, but even when the price isn’t moving, if you get good enough at reading candle patterns you can say with maybe 65% reliability which way it’s likely to end up. I usually don’t bother because I hate making losing trades even if it’s right more often than not.
Price Action Trading Strategy in general.
Explanation: the numbers flying up and down your recent trades window tend to move in specific ways right before certain things are going to happen. This one took me the longest to master but now that I have it I find myself relying on it more than anything else. It’s really hard though because there’s only subtle differences between the way it moves before a pump and the way it moves before a pump that’s about to get rejected. Good luck!
Knife catching mid movement.
So you have to be an asshole to even try this but my friend used to do it to show off. Basically let’s say you’re short and it’s about to dump a few hundred dollars. The smart thing to do is to just hold your short to the bottom but it’s technically more profitable if you can catch the minute or so bounces that happen during the fall And reshort at the tops of them. This list is in no way complete but it’s most of the things I do in any given week depending on what the market is doing and how much attention I’m paying at the time. Let me know if you have any questions or you want me to shut the fuck up.
Geeq - A serious contender for the most game changing project of 2020.
Recently Posted in the Geeq Trading Channel by a community ambassador. I'd like to officially welcome all the new people to the Geeq community, this is going to be long but I'd just like to say a few words and get it out of the way. I've talked with (username removed) about the discussions of other projects in this channel, we agreed to let it happen until the official launch of the Geeq token as this is a community trading channel, and it isn’t trading as of yet. In a way it’s important to acknowledge the good and bad about the macro outlook of crypto so people can learn from the mistakes together, and we don’t want to discourage thoughtful and informative dialogue. (username removed) and I are community members, whatever we do or say may not be used against the Geeq core as of such so please take our views as just personal opinions, we will have many of them lol. The Why’s? Why did I invest in Geeq? Why did my initial evaluation increase week on week on the marketcap of Geeq?, before I really looked into Geeq I had a sell price point at $1, this was 9 months ago. Why am I now seeing the bigger picture of the potential behemoth Geeq is? Why is the team willing to work for free for all these years? Why is the marketing team doing this for free? They have a very lucrative business before they joined the wing’s of the Geeq protocol (and they still do). Why is it for free? Why is the team decked with the most experience individuals in their fields? Why is Ric Asselstine, the gentlemen that helped build Canada’s biggest software company doing $5 billion revenue a year dedicating so many years on Geeq’s protocol? Why is John P. Conley with all his insane credentials in game theory, mechanism design, mathematical economics, and public theory join the team and do it for free for all these years? Why is Stephanie So, CDO & Founder of Geeq dedicate all these years working for free for Geeq? She was the first to use machine learning on social science data at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications, and recently Dell named her top 4 Influential Women in tech, why is she doing this? Why is Lun-Shin Yuen working on Geeq for free? He was the THIRD engineer working there, they are now worth $77.23 Billion in market share and doing over $6.7 Billion of revenue a year. Why is he here? Why is Eric Ball the former treasurer of Oracle between 2005-2015 involved in Geeq? I looked up how well he managed the $60 billion Larry Ellison had, while he was in charge, Larry peaked to the 4th richest person in the world, Mr Ball was managing his money during then, so what does that say? Why is Ian Smith, a savant and expert in network and OS security and system theory working here for free? He is fluent in 20 coding languages, He helped teach Linux at Nasa, why is this gentlemen here? Why did Dr Yeap reach out to the Geeq team to join as an Advisor? He has dozens of patents under him that run for decade’s long. Why Did Kurt Hoppe, the current Director at Google of Product Management in the Android Automotive sector of Google join as an advisor recently? He is a Board member in the Internet of things consortium, Former Global Head of Innovation at General Motors and former Director at LG Electronics Smart Home & Smart TV, why is he wanting to get involved with Geeq? These are few of my personal opinions. Because they are thinking 100 years ahead, not 1 year ahead. Currently crypto is full of people that are looking to make a quick buck, this isn’t one of them, sure you may make some money but why sell yourself short when you look at the product they have designed, created, protected and about to implement to the world of technology. It’s the best security in software, BFT tolerance is 99%, Sybil, Wealth and Nation-State proof, money cannot determine the control of the protocol, hash power cannot determine the control of the protocol. This is huge, this isn’t the buzz word, no one gets excited over security, but to me it’s the biggest deal in the technology world, from this point on, anyone who builds on this is inherently protected from future law suits (e.g. hacks losing peoples funds) due to potential corruption in chains, what the ledger says, says as John puts it. It cannot be changed for any sort of benefit to an individual or nation-state, This means it’s appealing to IoT applications such as Smart cars (corrupt the data and you could drive a car off the cliff), Telemetry, streaming payments, peer to peer content, literally anything you can think of, this would be the best platform to do it with. Micropayments- 1/100th of a cent, streaming and paying per second can now be done due to this. Anonymous- No point showing everyone’s detail’s such as buying personal goods at a store, no one needs to know this type of data, it’s logical in the way it displays important information and weeds out unnecessary public data. Trustless- Edge Security, you can see as an individual who is playing by the rules or not. AMP- Algorithmic Monetary Policy embedded and coded to reduce the risk of sharp drops/sharp pumps, healthy flow. As stated in the White Paper as an example: “A 25 node network running at 20 TPS allows 630M transactions per year and creates 630GB of chain data. Transactions cost users $.0001 each and this generates a total of $62k revenue per year. Approximately $1.7k in $GEEQ is paid to each node per year for their validation services. Geeq receives $21k in annual revenue from one such geeqchain instance.” (Ref: Section 7.1). This is ONE example, ONE chain, it does not represent ONE company, it could be ONE function of ONE Company, my point is, this is scalable to the billions of IoT devices, this has no limit of data input, If you are using Geeq in a smart city, it will be doing Billions of transactions a day. Just one example. In 2017 there was 7 Billion IoT devices, 2019 the devices reached 26.66 Billion, During 2020 it’s expected to be 31 Billion IoT Devices, this is a growing market as you can tell, this is the future, Geeq will capitalize on this. The list goes on and on and on and on and on and on and on. So since this is a trading channel, this is my opinion as to why this may exceed a lot of peoples price points in the long-term. We have no chart to determine the value of this coin, but what you can value it is on the target market, potential marketshare, the teams credentials, the protocol’s potential, the protection of the protocol (patent). A lot of people coming in here throwing numbers out without any actual real evidence to back it up, everyone has there own personal opinion on prices, which is fine but please make the most educated guess you can with the information you have as of now, now rethink to yourself what Geeq is doing, and why I’m so bullish. This is the beginning, since Geeq is built on decentralization, it’s important we act as a community and treat each other with respect, this is a long journey and it’s just starting, this channel should be used to lean on each other and build a very healthy community because this is a very long road, the Geeq team lead by example by showing how much patience they have, they answer the same questions every 30 minutes, I have not seen a TG group that has done this with such respect to random people ( This was a big reason why I went all in). This has the right mixture to be really something big, and I really hope everyone here does their research on Geeq, I’m not technical but I can see what the vision is, what is my price point? How can you value the most powerful team, protocol and vision in crypto? You can’t put a price on a protocol that will be setting the standard. Website: https://geeq.io One Pager: https://geeq.io/one-page White Paper: https://geeq.io/geeq-white-paper-2/ Tokenomics: https://geeq.io/tokenomics/ Team: https://geeq.io/people/ Token Release Date/Time: https://geeq.io/geeq-token-generation-event/ I hope you enjoyed the read and take a look into the project. I genuinely think this is the biggest project of the year with enormous potential. Look at all the shitcoins that take off and then look at this team and the ambitions and development behind it and it will quickly become clear that this is the one hell of a project.
Hey guys, I been in crypto since 2017. I have attempted day trading a couple times but got burnt a little and gave up. I'm familiar with trends and some TA. But I never day traded 100k before. So I decided to give it a try. I decided to trade Polkadot it was new and on uptrend but somewhat flat. I was trading on the 1 minute chart. My plan is, get 1 trade a day right, make 1000-2000 dollars in 5-15 minutes and get off "work." Well I made 3k today off 2 trades. Maybe I was just lucky. So throughout the day I practiced without actually using any money. Called all of them right with Link, BTC ETH and XRP. Made some more calls correct with polkadot on its downtrend. I just zoom out and look at the trend and resistance levels. I'm conflicted honestly. I am originally an investor. I want to do both, but this money I was trading was actually a good portion of my long term portfolio. reason why I am doing this is because in crypto I feel like we are in a bubble again for some of these "defi" coins like chainlink running up from $1 to $20 and Lend basically 100x. It's nuts in crypto right now. So I went into a stable coin and bascailly got the idea to try trading. I'm just looking for advice. Maybe stick to my long term positions and work for another 2 years and save up another 100k, maybe my investments will moon again, and then I'll have 100k again to trade (at this point screw real estate and dealing with nasty tenants!). I will definitely continue to practice trading. I just see this possibility of quitting my 9 to 5, but I want to invest long term too. What would you do? Stick with the long term investments or turn my portfolio into a trading machine? I don't want to day trade $10,000 and try to trade 40 times in a span of 8 hours. That sounds dumb and you might as well be at work. I need a $50k - $100k stack. 1 trade per day done and over less than 20 minutes. Trading on the 1 minute, should be over under 5 minutes. Edit: was wrong on 1 call when practicing, but it came through within 20 minutes. Would of been a +$600 trade on Chainlink.
The fee schedule below provides the applicable rate based on the account's 30-Day Volume and if the order is a maker or taker. Bittrex Global Fee30 Day Volume (USD)MakerTaker$0k - $50k0.2%0.2%$50k - $1M0.12%0.18%$1M - $10M0.05%0.15%$10M - $60M0.02%0.1%$60M+0%0.08%>$100MContact TAM representative Trading expenses are incurred when an order is prepared by means of the Bittrex worldwide matching engine. While an order is being executed, the purchaser and the vendor are charged a rate primarily based on the order’s amount. The fee charged by Bittrex exchange is calculated by the formula amount * buy rate * fee. There aren't any charges for placing an order which is not being executed so far. Any portion of an unfinished order will be refunded completely upon order cancelation. Prices vary depending on the currency pair, monthly trade volume, and whether the order is a maker or taker. Bittrex reserves the right to alternate fee quotes at any time, including offering various discounts and incentive packages.
Your buying and selling volume affects the fee you pay for every order. Our expenses are built to encourage customers who ensure liquidity in the Bittrex crypto exchange markets. Your buying and selling charges are reduced according to your trade volume for the last 30 years in dollars. Bittrex calculates the 30-day value every day, updating every account's volume calculation and buying and selling charge between of 12:30 AM UTC and 01:30 AM UTC every day. You can check your monthly trade volume by logging in and opening Account > My Activity. https://preview.redd.it/n1djh2ob4zh51.jpg?width=974&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2eebb9c9ac63de207c4dd2e49bc45aeb53a8dec8
6. Withdrawing Funds
Withdrawing any type of funds is likewise simple. You can profit by buying and selling Bitcoin, Ether, or any other cryptocurrency. You determine the crypto address—to which the amount will be credited—and the transaction amount. The withdrawal fee will be automatically calculated and shown right away. After confirming the transaction, the finances will be sent to the specified addresses and all that you need to do is to wait for the community to confirm the transaction. If the 2FA is enabled, then the user receives a special code (via SMS or application) to confirm the withdrawal.
7. How to Trade on Bittrex Global
Currency selling and buying transactions are performed using the Sell and Buy buttons, accordingly. To begin with, the dealer selects a currency pair and sees a graph of the rate dynamics and different values for the pair. Below the chart, there is a section with orders where the user can buy or sell a virtual asset. To create an order, you just need to specify the order type, price, and quantity. And do not forget about the 0.25% trade fee whatever the quantity. For optimum profit, stay with liquid assets as they can be quickly sold at a near-market rate effective at the time of the transaction. Bittrex offers no referral program; so buying and selling crypto is the easiest way to earn. https://preview.redd.it/hopm6fih4zh51.jpg?width=1302&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=68c0aaae86f64c3e6b9d351c3df2a9c331f94038
Bittrex helps you alternate Limit and Stop-Limit orders. A limit order or a simple limit order is performed when the asset fee reaches—or even exceeds—the price the trader seeks. To execute such an order, it is required that there's a counter market order on the platform that has the identical fee as the limit order.
Differences between Limit Order and Stop Limit Order
A stop limit order is a mixture of a stop limit order and a limit order. In such an application, charges are indicated—a stop charge and the limit.
Let’s discuss how you could trade conveniently with our service. The key features include a user-friendly interface and precise currency pair statistics (timeframe graphs, network data, trade volumes, and so forth). The platform’s top-notch advantage is handy, easy-to-analyze, customizable charts. There is also a column for quick switching between currency pairs and an order panel beneath the fee chart. Such an all-encompassing visual solution helps compare orders efficiently and in one place. You can use the terminal in a day or night mode; when in the night mode, the icon in the upper-right corner changes and notice the Bittrex trading terminal in night mode is displayed. The main menu consists of 4 sections: Markets, Orders, Wallets, Settings. Markets are the trade section. Bittrex allows handling over 270 currency pairs. Orders. To see all open orders, go to Orders → Open. To see completed orders, go to Orders → Completed. Wallets. The Wallets tab displays many wallets for all cryptocurrencies supported by the exchange and the current balance of each of them. After refilling the balance or creating a buy or sale order, you will see all actions in the section. Bittrex allows creating a separate wallet for every coin. Additionally, you can see how the coin price has changed, in terms of percentage, throughout the day. Here’s what you can also do with your wallets:
Hide zero balances: hide currencies with zero balance
Green and red arrows: replenish balance/withdraw funds
Find: search for a cryptocurrency
The Settings section helps manage your account, verification, 2FA, password modification, API connection, and many more.
How to Sell
The process of selling crypto assets follows the same algorithm. The only difference is that after choosing the exchange direction, you need to initiate a Sell order. All the rest is similar: you select the order type, specify the quantity and price, and click Sell *Currency Name* (Sell Bitcoin in our case). If you scroll the screen, the entire history of trades and orders will be displayed below.
LONG and SHORT
You can make a long deal or a short deal. Your choice depends on whether you expect an asset to fall or rise in price. Long positions are a classic trading method. It concerns purchasing an asset to profit when its value increases. Long positions are carried out through any brokers and do not require a margin account. In this case, the trader’s account must have enough funds to cover the transaction. Losses in a long position are considered to be limited; no matter when the trade starts, the price will not fall below zero with all possible errors. Short positions, in contrast, are used to profit from a falling market. A trader buys a financial instrument from a broker and sells it. After the price reaches the target level, the trader buys back the assets or buys them to pay off the initial debt to the broker. A short position yields profit if the price falls, and it is considered unprofitable the price matches the asset value. Performing a short order requires a margin account as a trader borrows valuable assets from a broker to complete a transaction. Long transactions help gain from market growth; short from a market decline.
Trade via API
Bittrex also supports algorithmic trading through extensive APIs (application programming interface), which allows you to automate the trading process using third-party services. To create an API key, the user must enable the two-factor authentication 2FA, verify their account, and log in to the site within 3 minutes. If all the requirements of the system are fulfilled, you can proceed to generate the API key. Log in to your Bittrex account, click Settings. Find API Keys. Click Add new key (Create a new key). Toggle on / off settings for READ INFO, TRADE, or WITHDRAW, depending on what functionality you want to use for our API key. Click Save and enter the 2FA code from the authenticator → Confirm. The secret key will be displayed only once and will disappear after the page is refreshed. Make sure you saved it! To delete an API key, click X in the right corner for the key that you want to delete, then click Save, enter the 2FA code from the authenticator and click Confirm.
Bittrex Bot, a Trader’s Assistant
Robotized programs that appeared sometimes after the appearance of cryptocurrency exchanges save users from monotonous work and allow automating the trading process. Bots for trading digital money work like all the other bots: they perform mechanical trading according to the preset parameters. Currently, one of Bittrex’s most popular trading bots is Bittrex Flash Crash Buyer Bot that helps traders profit from altcoin volatility without missing the right moment. The program monitors all the market changes in the market every second; also, it even can place an order in advance. The Bittrex bot can handle a stop loss—to sell a certain amount of currency when the rate changes in a favorable direction and reaches a certain level.
8. Secure Platform
Bittrex Global employs the most reliable and effective security technologies available. There are many cases of theft, fraud. It is no coincidence that the currency is compared to the Wild West, especially if we compare the 1800s when cowboys rushed to the West Coast of America to earn and start something new in a place that had no rules. Cryptocurrency is still wild. One can earn and lose money fast. But Bittrex has a substantial security policy thanks to the team’s huge experience in security and development for companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, Qualys, and Blackberry. The system employs an elastic, multi-stage holding strategy to ensure that the majority of funds are kept in cold storage for extra safety. Bittrex Global also enables the two-factor authentication for all users and provides a host of additional security features to provide multiple layers of protection. Bittrex cold wallet: https://bitinfocharts.com/en/bitcoin/address/385cR5DM96n1HvBDMzLHPYcw89fZAXULJP
Bittrex Global is a reliable and advanced platform for trading digital assets with a respected reputation, long history, and active market presence and development nowadays. The exchange is eligible to be used globally, including the US and its territories. The legal component of Bittrex Global is one of the most legitimate among numerous crypto-asset exchanges. The Bittrex team has had great ambitions and managed to deliver promises and more. The exchange staff comprises forward-thinking and exceptional individuals whose success is recognized in the traditional business and blockchain sector. Bittrex's purpose is to be the driving force in the blockchain revolution, expanding the application, importance, and accessibility of this game-changing technology worldwide. The exchange fosters new and innovative blockchain and related projects that could potentially change the way money and assets are managed globally. Alongside innovation, safety will always be the main priority of the company. The platform utilizes the most reliable and effective practices and available technologies to protect user accounts. Bittrex customers have always primarily been those who appreciate the highest degree of security. Because of the way the Bittrex trading platform is designed, it can easily scale to always provide instant order execution for any number of new customers. Bittrex supports algorithmic trading and empowers its customers with extensive APIs for more automated and profitable trading. One of the common features which is not available on the exchange is margin trading. No leverage used however adds up to the exchange's stability and prevents fast money seekers and risky traders from entering the exchange. Bittrex is a force of the blockchain revolution and an important entity of the emerging sector. The full version First part Second part
Rebasing, new money, old money, the stable value, and value fluctuations.
Hello all. I have seen several people comparing ampleforth to bitconnect, so here is the simplified formula: (Oracle Price – Target Price) / 10 supply change every 24 hours. Now so long as the price fluctuations are under this amount, we never run the risk of dropping into negative territory. Now, look at the chart. What are our fluctuations? The biggest fluctuation was the 13 july 2020, from 3.46 to 1.86. Now, is this due only to the rebase? No. If you look up on the days before that, we had a massive run up. This looks like a normal market pattern cycle that got burst. But did hodlers lose? No. The marketcap just keeps going up. So, what could cause the price to dip below $1? Well, if we reached $1, and the marketcap stagnated, then a whale *COULD* crash the market. However, there are several things to consider here. First, when we reach a stagnated market value, ampleforth will have taken a strong competitive edge against tether and usdc. That means its volume will be absolutely massive. Second, it requires more money to crash an asset than it requires to jack an asset's prices up. Psychology lesson. Most people are bad traders because they treat risk and reward differently. They hold losing positions hoping the losing position will come back, and they hesitate to take winning positions if there is a chance of loss. This risk adverse mentality has an application here. Also, the lower number of say .90 is a numerically lower number than say 1.15. And trading lesson... the spot price of an asset is determined by active traders. Not by actual hodlers. Traders are necessarily reactionary. We cannot see the future. And when the price fluctuates, non market participants tend to become active market participants. This is why small price moves can spark feagreed runs. At ampleforth's target price of $1, it is going to be difficult for any one trader to crash the market, and we will NOT see price drops to .5 as a normal occurrence. If we do, there is an arbitrage that traders like me WILL do if it happens. Basically since we know that below $1 the rebase is a negative event, we will do the opposite of current actions with trading. The current trading strategy that eliminates risk while at the same time maximizes returns is to jump in with tether 5 minutes before rebase, and jump out and crash the market with the new 10% supply. Under $1, the strategy would be to buy and jump in. Right before rebase, traders sell, and then buy back in after rebase. People who are saying ampleforth is a bad investment are probably wrong. There are reasons it won't crash sub $1 when it has lots of users, and there are ways the market can remedy the situation. Now.. the ampleforth rich list IS disturbing. Just like satoshi nakamoto holding 10% of bitcoin is disturbing. However, they are a respectable crypto company, and they have plans for at least coinbase and binance, and I do not see them flash dumping on the market. That isn't to say they might sell. I am saying that if they do sell, they will do it in a nice respectful manner that does not crash the market, and doesn't cause lots of slippage for them.
Anyone who wants to become a profitable stock trader need only spend a few minutes online to find such phrases as "plan your trade; trade your plan" and "keep your losses to a minimum." For new traders, these tidbits can seem more like a distraction than actionable advice. If you're new to trading, you probably just want to know how to hurry up and make money. Each of the rules below is important, but when they work together the effects are strong. Keeping them in mind can greatly increase your odds of succeeding in the markets. . What Do We Offer ?⠀ . ✅ Account management. ✅ Free signal and trial signal. ✅ Paid signal offers. ✅ Chart Analysis and Market Updates. ✅ 8-10 Signals a Day with Setup, TP and SL. ✅ Weekly More Than +800 PIPS. ✅ Daily Learnings and Free E-Books. ✅ Signals are given With Proper Analysis. ✅+25 Technical analysis/Setups each week. #trade #tradeforex #traders #forex #forextrading #tradewithtrend #tradesignals #trademarketing #tradingplan #moneymaking #crypto #daytrader #investor
If you're a crypto enthusiast or you trade actively within the cryptocurrency market, there are possibilities that you may have heard of Bitcoin Rush. It's a trading bot that claims to take traders’ average daily profit income to $150zero. Let us understand more concerning the bitcoin rush trading robot in this bitcoin rush review, thoroughly. bitcoin rush review can cover virtually each information a trader needs to grasp before using this trading software, together with client service, deposit & withdrawals, and additional. Let us start! bitcoin rush Review – Overview of Bitcoin Rush What is that the Bitcoin Rush? bitcoin rush is a Bitcoin trading software/trading platform for a trading robot built to bring ease and speed within the trading activities. bitcoin rush claims that an investor can earn an average profit of $150zero/day. If you last the internet and check its official web site, you will realize that the claim isn't an exaggeration. bitcoin rush review by nearly every investigator or analyst says that the claim is legit & the robot works well. However, one ought to not forget the danger involved in trading within the cryptocurrency market. Plus, the quantity of profit would additionally vary as per the experience of an investor. Investors can build a minimum deposit of 250 (greenbacks) and begin trading (post-registration). It's forever suggested to start with a little quantity and increase the stakes as you get an idea of the market. bitcoin rush states that traders with a minimum deposit of $80zero will earn as high as $five hundred/day. Investors with a larger risk-taking capability and experience can deposit as abundant as $1k and can create $150zero/day. However, start little, for the relief, confidence, expertise the thrill of the sport & lose less. Master the broker you're using like bitcoin rush or any alternative trading robot. Here is something you must apprehend about Bitcoin Rush: It is vital to notice that bitcoin rush is a fully automated trading software. It means that anybody, who does not understand concerning trading technically can use it. Prior expertise in Bitcoin trading is not needed. However, trading is completed with a sole objective of earning more; hence, we tend to recommend investors to remain updated with the latest market happenings, analysis, carts, trends, etc. The additional updated you are, the higher trading selections you would take. Automated trading robots or trading software would be of nice facilitate when the market is most uncertain and volatility is high. bitcoin rush Review – Features of Bitcoin Rush Open Free Account How does bitcoin rush Work? What allows bitcoin rush to work as accurately as possible and assists you in claiming profits is its core style. The app leverages on trading knowledge received from multiple computer algorithms. These algorithms scrutinize Bitcoin markets, analyze every knowledge, combination and categorize the info to require out accurate details of the market trends. Humans are possible to lack in their ability to analyze vast knowledge from multiple markets within a restricted time. All of this is often done by bitcoin rush with lightning speed therefore that traders don't miss out on the opportunities.. bitcoin rush or alternative similar automated trading robots perform two types of research:
Fundamental analysis involves analyzing qualitative knowledge such as news reports.
Technical analysis takes care of quantitative like charts.
bitcoin rush algorithms bear each Bitcoin-connected data on the web and take trading selections accordingly. Call making and therefore the execution is completed by the trading platform itself. All the trader has to try and do is open and shut the trading sessions. Traders have to try and do these activities well. bitcoin rush Review – How bitcoin rush Works? Open Free Account How to register with Bitcoin Rush? It's straightforward and sleek to register yourself on Bitcoin Rush. The process is quick, secured, and seamless. The investor has got to register him/herself with the name, email address, and contact details. Though the software claims higher profits for investors on a median, it's always higher to start tiny and invest solely that a lot of that you'll be able to afford to lose. One more factor regarding bitcoin rush that investors must recognize is, the trading platform does not serve folks from some countries. So, you need to check if you're allowed to use the platform. n The account creation process of the bitcoin rush is almost like any different automated trading platform. Aspiring traders have to go to the official site, fill all the desired details like name, email address, and phone variety. The robot will not ask for unwanted, unrelated, extra data. Therefore, you can feel assured there! As most of the scam platforms tend to ask something additional than required. Plus, bitcoin rush is Secured with an SSL certificate, that suggests that your information and cash is safe here. Once the registration is complete, the investor has to make a minimum deposit to the account. Deposit of 250 (dollars) greenbacks is needed to permit investors to start out trading. bitcoin rush accepts multiple payment ways for receiving deposits like Maestro/Visa/MasterCard, Skrill, Wire/bank Transfer, Bitcoin payment, etc. Once the deposit is made, the software takes some hours to replicate on your dashboard. There aren't any charges for this method. Withdrawals from bitcoin rush are equally seamless, and traders can request them anytime. Again the process can demand at least twenty four hours to get mirrored in your accou Another unique feature of the robot is Demo trading. Post depositing the initial amount, and before venturing into actual trading activities, investors will try Demo trading. This feature should be leveraged by everybody (beginner or professional) because the demo will inform you concerning the trading and also the platform too. You will perceive how to leverage bitcoin rush to facilitate live trading and make better profits. Though bitcoin rush is an automatic trading platform, demo trading will provide you a judgment of opening and shutting trading sessions. Live trading As it is automated trading software, all traders have to do is open and close the trades, and withdraw the profits when needed. Traders can not need additional than fifteen-twenty minutes to watch daily trade activities and trends (with the help of the bot). It is instructed to open trade at the start of the day and shut it by the top of the day. Though the method is automated (it can save your efforts and burden), during the time of the volatile market, maintaining a tally of the trend and staying updated can add a heap to your profit. Plus, if you've got earned a profit, withdraw it as soon as doable. Never ever invest every penny of your profit, have a most of the number in liquid type. Is bitcoin rush Legit? Nearly each bitcoin rush review on the internet agrees with the actual fact that bitcoin rush is a legitimate Bitcoin trading platform. Bitcoin Rush, since its introduction to the market in 2013, has been serving traders quite well. The trading platform trusted by investors. Google reviews and bitcoin rush reviews out there on the internet says that the trading software is straightforward to use, operate, and helps in earning profit. bitcoin rush also claims to work consistently with an accuracy of ninety nine.5percent. Traders state that they can create a profit in virtually each market condition with Bitcoin Rush. However, the share/volume of profit might vary as per the expertise, trade order, and volatility. As way as the fees and commission are involved, it does not charge for using the software. However, traders could should pay a little proportion as a commission on the profits created. bitcoin rush platform has return up with a tremendous system in terms of payouts. Customers are charged with a small commission on profits in Bitcoin Rush. If the system does not earn cash, the platform users do not earn. And vis-à-vis. This is often very assuring, credible, and reliable. The verification system of the bitcoin rush is sturdy and intact. It assures the traders that every one the profiles using the platform are valid and true. This can be important for Bitcoin Rush, too, as it saves the platform from unwanted breach attempts, overall adding to the market name. The verification system of the bitcoin rush is speedier There are not any hidden charges that traders need to face while trading on Bitcoin Rush. Traders only should pay a minimal commission amount to the platform post every deposit created for trading and profit. If you check the official bitcoin rush website, you will see some reviews of the important-life bitcoin rush users. These folks have left positive reviews about the trading platform. One of the reviews talks about how bitcoin rush helps the trader to retire early and live all her dreams. Another review talks regarding how the trading platform helped the trader to earn higher than $120zero daily, and he no more worries about the bank balance. Overall the picture looks promising from customers’ points of read. https://preview.redd.it/uab575gl5te51.png?width=382&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d5d65c4acb3a581209cdcc69ddc2557af0f5b13
One-minute Digest on Us and Market July 25 - July 31, 2020 Market Watch
Total Market Cap of Digital Assets: $329 bln (as of Jul 31, 10:00 a.m. UTC, CoinMarketCap)
Bitcoin’s Weekly Price Range: $9,500 - $ 11,300
BTC surged 14.91%, ETH soared 21.15% this week.
Cumulative Number of ETH Transactions: 789 mln; ETH Network Hash Rate: 181,400.06 GH/s
Launched Copy Trading Service Version 1.2 (for PC) on Jul 28th. Check out various improvements and new features!
Support Staking Service on App. Stake 12 tokens anywhere, anytime.
Upgraded platform deposit function. New users can sign up and log in to deposit directly, no need for Google 2FA now.
Optimized drawing panel for candlestick chart area (professional view). Drawings can be saved automatically to facilitate technical analysis.
Latest Listing July 27 – Crypto.com (CRO) listed under the trading pair of CRO/USDT. Crypto.com Chain is a ground-breaking high performing, secure and privacy-protected public blockchain solution powering instant crypto payment transactions between customers and merchants, anywhere, for free. July 30 – TrustSwap (SWAP) listed under the trading pair of SWAP/USDT. TrustSwap is building a go-to decentralized finance (DeFi) solution for automated smart-escrows, smart-swaps and smart-locks, allowing for people and organizations to easily execute smart contract-based agreements at a minimum costs. DeFi Project Highlights
Swingby (SWINGBY) Staking for compound rewards up to 65% est. APY
3-Month Orion Protocol (ORN) Pre-Staking Program: 39% Est. Annualized Return for 1st month.
Bitcoin price again over USD 10,000 - is the Bullrun coming now or is it just the short-term correction?
In the last few weeks since mid-June, the BTC price has only ranged between USD 9,000 and USD 9,600, showing very low volatility that has not been seen since November 2018. But yesterday's turn came: the magic barrier to a five-digit Bitcoin price of USD 10,000 was finally broken again. This movement was preceded by a pump by several percents within a few minutes.
Bitcoin Price fireworks on Sunday
The Bitcoin rate seems to have finally passed its weeks of consolidation yesterday and has regained its well-known volatility. The reason for this is the short-term breaking of the magic five-digit limit at $ 10,000, which has often served as resistance in the past and is psychologically important. The Bitcoin price jumped from $ 9,800 to over $ 10,150 in less than 20 minutes. The bad news is that this movement of over 3.5% within a few minutes was unfortunately not very sustainable, as is so often the case with pumps. A short time later, the BTC price again slipped below the five-digit limit, but at around USD 9,940 it was still a good deal higher than before the pump at the time of writing and continues to scratch at USD 10,000. https://preview.redd.it/f67gw8vskdd51.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=f8b9022fa7d5b1d4f4dd4c554de789ff1cf1c181 The entire $ 10,000 move was not entirely unexpected. Since testing the resistance at $ 9,000 on July 16, the Bitcoin price has been in a steady upward trend with higher lows set every few days. Smaller pumps were already available on July 21 and 22.
Beginning of the bull run or short-term correction?
The question is now whether the Bitcoin course can keep this multi-day upward trend or even continue. Due to the halving in May and the macroeconomic developments in the wake of the corona crisis, many BTC fans have been waiting for a bullring. The hope, of course, is great that the wait will end. Unfortunately, not all experts agree that from now on the Bitcoin price will mainly go uphill. In a new Twitter thread, crypto strategist "Dave the Wave" tells his 33,000 followers that he believes the Bitcoin course will eventually break out of its current reach and start a new bull run, but he expects that BTC will go through a significant correction first. https://preview.redd.it/xlo9icc9ldd51.png?width=1308&format=png&auto=webp&s=9dd6f5736d6d0405eabd47c12aea832efb579e2f Based on the pseudonymous trader's chart, the Bitcoin price can drop to $ 6,900 before BTC recovers and breaks the diagonal resistance of the multi-year triangle. He says his short-term bearish view will be weakened if the bulls get the cryptocurrency over $ 10,600.
A chance to get started?
It remains to be seen whether Dave The Wave will be right with his forecast that there will be a short-term correction in the Bitcoin price. Nevertheless, the long-term assessment of the trader remains very optimistic. In a few other posts, Dave predicted a BTC price of $ 100,000 by the end of 2022.
Binance Support Number 🎧 【+𝐼 】 𝟪𝟦𝟦-𝟫𝟢𝟩-𝒪𝟧𝟪𝟥☎️ Customer Service Number
Binance Support Number 🎧 【+𝐼 】 𝟪𝟦𝟦-𝟫𝟢𝟩-𝒪𝟧𝟪𝟥☎️ Customer Service Number
Binance support number 1844-907-0583 CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao really doesn't want to tell you where his firm's headquarters is located. Binance support number 1844-907-0583 has loads of offices, he continued, with staff in 50 countries. It was a new type of organization that doesn't need registered bank accounts and postal addresses. To kick off ConsenSys' Ethereal Summit on Thursday, Unchained Podcast host Laura Shin held a cozy fireside chat with Zhao who, to mark the occasion, was wearing a personalized football shirt emblazoned with the Binance support number 1844-907-0583 brand. Scheduled for 45 minutes, Zhao spent most of it explaining how libra and China's digital yuan were unlikely to be competitors to existing stablecoin providers; how Binance support number 1844-907-0583's smart chain wouldn't tread on Ethereum's toes – "that depends on the definition of competing," he said – and how Binance support number 1844-907-0583 had an incentive to keep its newly acquired CoinMarketCap independent from the exchange. There were only five minutes left on the clock. Zhao was looking confident; he had just batted away a thorny question about an ongoing lawsuit. It was looking like the home stretch. Then it hit. Shin asked the one question Zhao really didn't want to have to answer, but many want to know: Where is Binance support number 1844-907-0583's headquarters? This seemingly simple question is actually more complex. Until February, Binance support number 1844-907-0583 was considered to be based in Malta. That changed when the island European nation announced that, no, Binance support number 1844-907-0583 is not under its jurisdiction. Since then Binance support number 1844-907-0583 has not said just where, exactly, it is now headquartered. Little wonder that when asked Zhao reddened; he stammered. He looked off-camera, possibly to an aide. "Well, I think what this is is the beauty of the blockchain, right, so you don't have to ... like where's the Bitcoin office, because Bitcoin doesn't have an office," he said. The line trailed off, then inspiration hit. "What kind of horse is a car?" Zhao asked. "Wherever I sit, is going to be the Binance support number 1844-907-0583 office. Wherever I need somebody, is going to be the Binance support number 1844-907-0583 office," he said. Zhao may have been hoping the host would move onto something easier. But Shin wasn't finished: "But even to do things like to handle, you know, taxes for your employees, like, I think you need a registered business entity, so like why are you obfuscating it, why not just be open about it like, you know, the headquarters is registered in this place, why not just say that?" Zhao glanced away again, possibly at the person behind the camera. Their program had less than two minutes remaining. "It's not that we don't want to admit it, it's not that we want to obfuscate it or we want to kind of hide it. We're not hiding, we're in the open," he said. Shin interjected: "What are you saying that you're already some kind of DAO [decentralized autonomous organization]? I mean what are you saying? Because it's not the old way [having a headquarters], it's actually the current way ... I actually don't know what you are or what you're claiming to be." Zhao said Binance support number 1844-907-0583 isn't a traditional company, more a large team of people "that works together for a common goal." He added: "To be honest, if we classified as a DAO, then there's going to be a lot of debate about why we're not a DAO. So I don't want to go there, either." "I mean nobody would call you guys a DAO," Shin said, likely disappointed that this wasn't the interview where Zhao made his big reveal. Time was up. For an easy question to close, Shin asked where Zhao was working from during the coronavirus pandemic. "I'm in Asia," Zhao said. The blank white wall behind him didn't provide any clues about where in Asia he might be. Shin asked if he could say which country – after all, it's the Earth's largest continent. "I prefer not to disclose that. I think that's my own privacy," he cut in, ending the interview. It was a provocative way to start the biggest cryptocurrency and blockchain event of the year. In the opening session of Consensus: Distributed this week, Lawrence Summers was asked by my co-host Naomi Brockwell about protecting people’s privacy once currencies go digital. His answer: “I think the problems we have now with money involve too much privacy.” President Clinton’s former Treasury secretary, now President Emeritus at Harvard, referenced the 500-euro note, which bore the nickname “The Bin Laden,” to argue the un-traceability of cash empowers wealthy criminals to finance themselves. “Of all the important freedoms,” he continued, “the ability to possess, transfer and do business with multi-million dollar sums of money anonymously seems to me to be one of the least important.” Summers ended the segment by saying that “if I have provoked others, I will have served my purpose.” You’re reading Money Reimagined, a weekly look at the technological, economic and social events and trends that are redefining our relationship with money and transforming the global financial system. You can subscribe to this and all of CoinDesk’s newsletters here. That he did. Among the more than 20,000 registered for the weeklong virtual experience was a large contingent of libertarian-minded folks who see state-backed monitoring of their money as an affront to their property rights. But with due respect to a man who has had prodigious influence on international economic policymaking, it’s not wealthy bitcoiners for whom privacy matters. It matters for all humanity and, most importantly, for the poor. Now, as the world grapples with how to collect and disseminate public health information in a way that both saves lives and preserves civil liberties, the principle of privacy deserves to be elevated in importance. Just this week, the U.S. Senate voted to extend the 9/11-era Patriot Act and failed to pass a proposed amendment to prevent the Federal Bureau of Investigation from monitoring our online browsing without a warrant. Meanwhile, our heightened dependence on online social connections during COVID-19 isolation has further empowered a handful of internet platforms that are incorporating troves of our personal data into sophisticated predictive behavior models. This process of hidden control is happening right now, not in some future "Westworld"-like existence. Digital currencies will only worsen this situation. If they are added to this comprehensive surveillance infrastructure, it could well spell the end of the civil liberties that underpin Western civilization. Yes, freedom matters Please don’t read this, Secretary Summers, as some privileged anti-taxation take or a self-interested what’s-mine-is-mine demand that “the government stay away from my money.” Money is just the instrument here. What matters is whether our transactions, our exchanges of goods and services and the source of our economic and social value, should be monitored and manipulated by government and corporate owners of centralized databases. It’s why critics of China’s digital currency plans rightly worry about a “panopticon” and why, in the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal, there was an initial backlash against Facebook launching its libra currency. Writers such as Shoshana Zuboff and Jared Lanier have passionately argued that our subservience to the hidden algorithms of what I like to call “GoogAzonBook” is diminishing our free will. Resisting that is important, not just to preserve the ideal of “the self” but also to protect the very functioning of society. Markets, for one, are pointless without free will. In optimizing resource allocation, they presume autonomy among those who make up the market. Free will, which I’ll define as the ability to lawfully transact on my own terms without knowingly or unknowingly acting in someone else’s interests to my detriment, is a bedrock of market democracies. Without a sufficient right to privacy, it disintegrates – and in the digital age, that can happen very rapidly. Also, as I’ve argued elsewhere, losing privacy undermines the fungibility of money. Each digital dollar should be substitutable for another. If our transactions carry a history and authorities can target specific notes or tokens for seizure because of their past involvement in illicit activity, then some dollars become less valuable than other dollars. The excluded But to fully comprehend the harm done by encroachments into financial privacy, look to the world’s poor. An estimated 1.7 billion adults are denied a bank account because they can’t furnish the information that banks’ anti-money laundering (AML) officers need, either because their government’s identity infrastructure is untrusted or because of the danger to them of furnishing such information to kleptocratic regimes. Unable to let banks monitor them, they’re excluded from the global economy’s dominant payment and savings system – victims of a system that prioritizes surveillance over privacy. Misplaced priorities also contribute to the “derisking” problem faced by Caribbean and Latin American countries, where investment inflows have slowed and financial costs have risen in the past decade. America’s gatekeeping correspondent banks, fearful of heavy fines like the one imposed on HSBC for its involvement in a money laundering scandal, have raised the bar on the kind of personal information that regional banks must obtain from their local clients. And where’s the payoff? Despite this surveillance system, the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime estimates that between $800 billion and $2 trillion, or 2%-5% of global gross domestic product, is laundered annually worldwide. The Panama Papers case shows how the rich and powerful easily use lawyers, shell companies, tax havens and transaction obfuscation to get around surveillance. The poor are just excluded from the system. Caring about privacy Solutions are coming that wouldn’t require abandoning law enforcement efforts. Self-sovereign identity models and zero-knowledge proofs, for example, grant control over data to the individuals who generate it, allowing them to provide sufficient proof of a clean record without revealing sensitive personal information. But such innovations aren’t getting nearly enough attention. Few officials inside developed country regulatory agencies seem to acknowledge the cost of cutting off 1.7 billion poor from the financial system. Yet, their actions foster poverty and create fertile conditions for terrorism and drug-running, the very crimes they seek to contain. The reaction to evidence of persistent money laundering is nearly always to make bank secrecy laws even more demanding. Exhibit A: Europe’s new AML 5 directive. To be sure, in the Consensus discussion that followed the Summers interview, it was pleasing to hear another former U.S. official take a more accommodative view of privacy. Former Commodities and Futures Trading Commission Chairman Christopher Giancarlo said that “getting the privacy balance right” is a “design imperative” for the digital dollar concept he is actively promoting. But to hold both governments and corporations to account on that design, we need an aware, informed public that recognizes the risks of ceding their civil liberties to governments or to GoogAzonBook. Let’s talk about this, people. A missing asterisk Control for all variables. At the end of the day, the dollar’s standing as the world’s reserve currency ultimately comes down to how much the rest of the world trusts the United States to continue its de facto leadership of the world economy. In the past, that assessment was based on how well the U.S. militarily or otherwise dealt with human- and state-led threats to international commerce such as Soviet expansionism or terrorism. But in the COVID-19 era only one thing matters: how well it is leading the fight against the pandemic. So if you’ve already seen the charts below and you’re wondering what they’re doing in a newsletter about the battle for the future of money, that’s why. They were inspired by a staged White House lawn photo-op Tuesday, where President Trump was flanked by a huge banner that dealt quite literally with a question of American leadership. It read, “America Leads the World in Testing.” That’s a claim that’s technically correct, but one that surely demands a big red asterisk. When you’re the third-largest country by population – not to mention the richest – having the highest number of tests is not itself much of an achievement. The claim demands a per capita adjustment. Here’s how things look, first in absolute terms, then adjusted for tests per million inhabitants. Binance support number 1844-907-0583 has frozen funds linked to Upbit’s prior $50 million data breach after the hackers tried to liquidate a part of the gains. In a recent tweet, Whale Alert warned Binance support number 1844-907-0583 that a transaction of 137 ETH (about $28,000) had moved from an address linked to the Upbit hacker group to its wallets. Less than an hour after the transaction was flagged, Changpeng Zhao, the CEO of Binance support number 1844-907-0583, announced that the exchange had frozen the funds. He also added that Binance support number 1844-907-0583 is getting in touch with Upbit to investigate the transaction. In November 2019, Upbit suffered an attack in which hackers stole 342,000 ETH, accounting for approximately $50 million. The hackers managed to take the funds by transferring the ETH from Upbit’s hot wallet to an anonymous crypto address.
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