Liquidation Margin Defined - Investopedia

Question on margin trading liquidation price?

I cant seem to figure this out.

So lets say I have $5,000 and I am going 5x leverage, so i'm trading with $25,000.
Lets say 1 bitcoin is 25,000, so I buy 1 bitcoin for $25,000. After using a margin calculator, why am I getting liquidated at 21,000? Shouldn't I get liquidated at 20,000?

Also, Lets say price price drops to $23,000 and I sell. Bitcoin is down 2,000. Does that mean my account is down exactly 2,000 dollars now? I understand i would be down 2,000 if I wasn't leveraged, but since I am leveraged 5x am I actually down a different amount?
submitted by Cool_Calm_Collected to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Margin trading and liquidation price

Simple question : assuming I got a long position of 100 Coins at a value of 10 USD. That mean a position worth 1000 USD.
As long as I have at least 150 USDT in my margin wallet (15% of 1000), I can never get liquidated, right? Even if the Coin price nears 0 USD and whatever that "liquidation price" indicates, right? (it would seem its computed assuming your whole equity being in the Coin you have a position of)
I want to protect myself against flash crashes.
submitted by Nipa42 to bitfinex [link] [comments]

Margin Trading, If the broker never actually buys the asset, why do they need to liquidate me when the prices drop?

Why force me to sell back an asset they never bought?
submitted by makerist to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Margin Trading, If the broker never actually buys the asset, why do they need to liquidate me when the prices drop? /r/BitcoinMarkets

Margin Trading, If the broker never actually buys the asset, why do they need to liquidate me when the prices drop? /BitcoinMarkets submitted by HiIAMCaptainObvious to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Binance enables margin trading for Nano

submitted by SeveralIf to nanocurrency [link] [comments]

$50k AMD shorting loss in 24 hours

$50k AMD shorting loss in 24 hours
Seeing AMD is ATH on Monday, I became greedy yesterday and sold 200 naked calls expiring 814 at $85/$90 hoping the stock will pull back. Tuesday, AMD surged as a huge surprise, which instantly destroyed my buying power. Fidelity called and I had to liquidate for margin call. So $50k loss in 24 hours.
The lesson learned here
  1. Never sell naked calls (although, in this case, it won't help very much as $90 and $95 calls are much cheaper)
  2. Never use too much of your buying power to sell calls, you will likely get margin called if price move against you.
  3. A black swan event or a sudden price change in a stock could bankrupt you. I felt in a way lucky that AMD didn't got to $90 today and remained at $85.
  4. Don't blind yourself P/E ratio, technical analysis on a trendy and passion stock. These don't seem to matter for growth stock anymore.
  5. Be determined when cutting your loss, this morning, I could have limited my loss to $35k when it dipped to $83, but got greedy again and waited a few more minutes and price bounced back to $85.
I'm very unpleased by this outcome, as it's the biggest lost I've had in my trading career, which also wiped out all my gains over the last two months, I hope this would be a good cautionary tale for others.
Edit: I honestly didn't expect this many comments, so just a few reactions to "what I could have done replies":
  1. Rolling the call - I thought about rolling the call to a higher price at later exp date. The upside of this is I won't lose more money than I already lost, but trading off time and security - and the reasonable moves to roll would be in 8/28 or 9/7 but at that time, who knows if AMD will rise to $95-$100 again giving its upcoming PR and new product releases?
  2. Buy the cover when short is ITM - I thought about buying 200 contracts to cover my position, that will restore some of my buying power to avoid liquidation, but these contracts are really expensive now we're talking about $1.9 at $90 to cover $3 at $85, they won't necessarily limit my loss exposure significantly (the reason I didn't buy the cover in the first place), the best case scenario at 8/14 I might only lose $20k, but AMD can keep going up into next week as market index is going up.
  3. Why I believe AMD will keep going up - even AMD by itself at this point is standing still and moving sideway, the macro is going up and things are getting better than I thought, with Friday's bill potentially passing, market can celebrate another 1-2% tech gain and I would be losing another $20-$30k. I also think the chance for AMD to pull back could happen not this week, but next week or late August - based on prior history, in 2018, 2019 AMD both had two long run up streak of %20-%30 gain for more than 2 weeks before pulling back.
I want to thank you all for your support! I'm probably going to slowly play conservative and trade back these losses over the next two months, wish me luck!

https://preview.redd.it/vta2z8sx87f51.png?width=1466&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c797038cd9e09e5cbaa7fd3e9f6dfafc00be5f5
submitted by bwang29 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

DDDD - Retail Investors, Bankruptcies, Dark Pools and Beauty Contests

DDDD - Retail Investors, Bankruptcies, Dark Pools and Beauty Contests
For this week's edition of DDDD (Data-Driven DD), we're going to look in-depth at some of the interesting things that have been doing on in the market over the past few weeks; I've had a lot more free time this week to write something new up, so you'll want to sit down and grab a cup of coffee for this because it will be a long one. We'll be looking into bankruptcies, how they work, and what some companies currently going through bankruptcies are doing. We'll also be looking at some data on retail and institutional investors, and take a closer look at how retail investors in particular are affecting the markets. Finally, we'll look at some data and magic markers to figure out what the market sentiment, the thing that's currently driving the market, looks like to help figure out if you should be buying calls or puts, as well as my personal strategy.
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.

How Bankruptcies Work

First, what is a bankruptcy? In a broad sense, a bankruptcy is a legal process an individual or corporation (debtor) who owes money to some other entity (creditor) can use to seek relief from the debt owed to their creditors if they’re unable to pay back this debt. In the United States, they are defined by Title 11 of the United States Code, with 9 different Chapters that govern different processes of bankruptcies depending on the circumstances, and the entity declaring bankruptcy.
For most publicly traded companies, they have two options - Chapter 11 (Reorganization), and Chapter 7 (Liquidation). Let’s start with Chapter 11 since it’s the most common form of bankruptcy for them.
A Chapter 11 case begins with a petition to the local Bankruptcy court, usually voluntarily by the debtor, although sometimes it can also be initiated by the creditors involuntarily. Once the process has been initiated, the corporation may continue their regular operations, overseen by a trustee, but with certain restrictions on what can be done with their assets during the process without court approval. Once a company has declared bankruptcy, an automatic stay is invoked to all creditors to stop any attempts for them to collect on their debt.
The trustee would then appoint a Creditor’s Committee, consisting of the largest unsecured creditors to the company, which would represent the interests creditors in the bankruptcy case. The debtor will then have a 120 day exclusive right after the petition date to file a Plan of Reorganization, which details how the corporation’s assets will be reorganized after the bankruptcy which they think the creditors may agree to; this is usually some sort of restructuring of the capital structure such that the creditors will forgive the corporation’s debt in exchange for some or all of the re-organized entity’s equity, wiping out the existing stockholders. In general, there’s a capital structure pecking order on who gets first dibs on a company’s assets - secured creditors, unsecured senior bond holders, unsecured general bond holders, priority / preferred equity holders, and then finally common equity holders - these are the classes of claims on the company’s assets. After the exclusive period expires, the Creditor’s Committee or an individual creditor can themselves propose their own, possibly competing, Restructuring Plan, to the court.
A Restructuring Plan will also be accompanied by a Disclosure Statement, which will contain all the financial information about the bankrupt company’s state of affairs needed for creditors and equity holders to make an informed decision about how to proceed. The court will then hold a hearing to approve the Restructuring Plan and Disclosure Statement before the plan can be voted on by creditors and equity holders. In some cases, these are prepared and negotiated with creditors before bankruptcy is even declared to speed things up and have more favorable terms - a prepackaged bankruptcy.
Once the Restructuring Plan and Disclosure Statement receives court approval, the plan is voted on by the classes of impaired (i.e. debt will not be paid back) creditors to be confirmed. The legal requirement for a bankruptcy court to confirm a Restructuring Plan is to have at least one entire class of impaired creditors vote to accept the plan. A class of creditors is deemed to have accepted a Restructuring Plan when creditors that hold at least 2/3 of the dollar amount and at least half of the number of creditors vote to accept the plan. After another hearing, and listening to any potential objections to the proposed Restructuring Plan, such as other impaired classes that don't like the plan, the court may then confirm the plan, putting it to effect.
This is one potential ending to a Chapter 11 case. A case can also end with a conversion to a Chapter 7 (Liquidation) case, if one of the parties involved file a motion to do so for a cause that is deemed by the courts to be in the best interest of the creditors. In Chapter 7, the company ceases operating and a trustee is appointed to begin liquidating (i.e. selling) the company’s assets. The proceeds from the liquidation process are then paid out to creditors, with the most senior levels of the capital structure being paid out first, and the equity holders are usually left with nothing. Finally, a party can file a motion to dismiss the case for some cause deemed to be in the best interest of the creditors.

The Tale of Two Bankruptcies - WLL and HTZ

Hertz (HTZ) has come into news recently, with the stock surging up to $6, or 1500% off its lows, for no apparent fundamental reason, despite the fact that they’re currently in bankruptcy and their stock is likely worthless. We’ll get around to what might have caused this later, for now, we’ll go over what’s going on with Hertz in its bankruptcy proceedings. To get a clearer picture, let’s start with a stock that I’ve been following since April - Whiting Petroleum (WLL).
WLL is a stock I’ve covered pretty extensively, especially with it’s complete price dislocation between the implied value of the restructured company by their old, currently trading, stock being over 10x the implied value of the bonds, which are entitled to 97% of the new equity. Usually, capital structure arbitrage, a strategy to profit off this spread by going long on bonds and shorting the equity, prevents this, but retail investors have started pumping the stock a few days after WLL’s bankruptcy to “buy the dip” and make a quick buck. Institutions, seeing this irrational behavior, are probably avoiding touching at risk of being blown out by some unpredictable and irrational retail investor pump for no apparent reason. We’re now seeing this exact thing play out a few months later, but at a much larger scale with Hertz.
So, how is WLL's bankruptcy process going? For anyone curious, you can follow the court case in Stretto. Luckily for Whiting, they’ve entered into a prepackaged bankruptcy process and filed their case with a Restructuring Plan already in mind to be able to have existing equity holders receive a mere 3% of new equity to be distributed among them, with creditors receiving 97% of new equity. For the past few months, they’ve quickly gone through all the hearings and motions and now have a hearing to receive approval of the Disclosure Statement scheduled for June 22nd. This hearing has been pushed back a few times, so this may not be the actual date. Another pretty significant document was just filed by the Committee of Creditors on Friday - an objection to the Disclosure Statement’s approval. Among other arguments about omissions and errors the creditor’s found in the Disclosure Statement, the most significant thing here is that Litigation and Rejection Damage claims holders were treated in the same class as a bond holders, and hence would be receiving part of their class’ share of the 97% of new equity. The creditors claim that this was misleading as the Restructuring Plan originally led them to believe that the 97% would be distributed exclusively to bond holders, and the claims for Litigation and Rejection Damage would be paid in full and hence be unimpaired. This objection argues that the debtors did this gerrymandering to prevent the Litigation and Rejection Damage claims be represented as their own class and able to reject the Restructuring Plan, requiring either payment in full of the claims or existing equity holders not receiving 3% of new equity, and be completely wiped out to respect the capital structure. I’d recommend people read this document if they have time because whoever wrote this sounds legitimately salty on behalf of the bond holders; here’s some interesting excerpts:
Moreover, despite the holders of Litigation and Rejection Damage Claims being impaired, existing equity holders will still receive 3% of the reorganized company’s new equity, without having to contribute any new value. The only way for the Debtors to achieve this remarkable outcome was to engage in blatant classification gerrymandering. If the Debtors had classified the Litigation and Rejection Damage Claims separately from the Noteholder claims and the go-forward Trade Claims – as they should have – then presumably that class would reject a plan that provides Litigation and Rejection Damage Claims with a pro rata share of minority equity.
The Debtors have placed the Rejection Damage and Litigation Claims in the same class as Noteholder Claims to achieve a particular result, namely the disenfranchisement of the Rejection Damage and Litigation Claimants who, if separately classified, may likely vote to reject the Plan. In that event, the Debtor would be required to comply with the cramdown requirements, including compliance with the absolute priority rule, which in turn would require payment of those claims in full, or else old equity would not be entitled to receive 3% of the new equity. Without their inclusion in a consenting impaired class, the Debtors cannot give 3% of the reorganized equity to existing equity holders without such holders having to contribute any new value or without paying the holders of Litigation and Rejection Damage Claims in full.
The Committee submits that the Plan was not proposed in good faith. As discussed herein, the Debtors have proposed an unconfirmable Plan – flawed in various important respects. Under the circumstances discussed above, in the Committee’s view, the Debtors will not be able to demonstrate that they acted with “honesty and good intentions” and that the Plan’s results will not be consistent with the Bankruptcy Code’s goal of ratable distribution to creditors.
They’re even trying to have the court stop the debtor from paying the lawyers who wrote the restructuring agreement.
However, as discussed herein, the value and benefit of the Consenting Creditors’ agreements with the Debtors –set forth in the RSA– to the Estates is illusory, and authorizing the payment of the Consenting Creditor Professionals would be tantamount to approving the RSA, something this Court has stated that it refuses to do.20 The RSA -- which has not been approved by the Court, and indeed no such approval has been sought -- is the predicate for a defective Plan that was not proposed in good faith, and that gives existing equity holders an equity stake in the reorganized enterprise even though Litigation and Rejection Damage Creditors will (presumably) not be made whole under the Plan and the existing interest holders will not be contributing requisite new value.
As a disclaimer, I have absolutely zero knowledge nor experience in law, let alone bankruptcy law. However, from reading this document, if what the objection indicates to be true, could mean that we end up having the court force the Restructuring agreement to completely wipe out the current equity holders. Even worse, entering a prepackaged bankruptcy in bad faith, which the objection argues, might be grounds to convert the bankruptcy to Chapter 7; again, I’m no lawyer so I’m not sure if this is true, but this is my best understanding from my research.
So what’s going on with Hertz? Most analysts expect that based on Hertz’s current balance sheet, existing equity holders will most likely be completely wiped out in the restructuring. You can keep track of Hertz’s bankruptcy process here, but it looks like this is going to take a few months, with the first meeting of creditors scheduled for July 1. An interesting 8-K got filed today for HTZ, and it looks like they’re trying to throw a hail Mary for their case by taking advantage of dumb retail investors pumping up their stock. They’ve just been approved by the bankruptcy court to issue and sell up to $1B (double their current market cap) of new shares in the stock market. If they somehow pull this off, they might have enough money raised to dismiss the bankruptcy case and remain in business, or at very least pay off their creditors even more at the expense of Robinhood users.

The Rise of Retail Investors - An Update

A few weeks ago, I talked about data that suggested a sudden surge in retail investor money flooding the market, based on Google Trends and broker data. Although this wasn’t a big topic back when I wrote about it, it’s now one of the most popular topics in mainstream finance news, like CNBC, since it’s now the only rational explanation for the stock market to have pumped this far, and for bankrupt stocks like HTZ and WLL to have surges far above their pre-bankruptcy prices. Let’s look at some interesting Google Trends that I found that illustrates what retail investors are doing.

Google Trends - Margin Calls
Google Trends - Robinhood
Google Trends - What stock should I buy
Google Trends - How to day trade
Google Trends - Pattern Day Trader
Google Trends - Penny Stock
The conclusion that can be drawn from this data is that in the past two weeks, we are seeing a second wave of new retail investor interest, similar to the first influx we saw in March. In particular, these new retail investors seem to be particularly interested in day trading penny stocks, including bankrupt stocks. In fact, data from Citadel shows that penny stocks have surged on average 80% in the previous week.
Why Retail Investors Matter
A common question that’s usually brought up when retail investors are brought up is how much they really matter. The portfolio size of retail investors are extremely small compared to institutional investors. Anecdotally and historically, retail investors don’t move the market, outside of some select stocks like TSLA and cannabis stocks in the past few years. However when they do, shit gets crazy; the last time retail investors drove the stock market was in the dot com bubble. There’s a few papers that look into this with similar conclusions, I’ll go briefly into this one, which looks at almost 20 years of data to look for correlations between retail investor behavior and stock market movements. The conclusion was that behaviors of individual retail investors tend to be correlated and are not random and independent of each other. The aggregate effect of retail investors can then drive prices of equities far away from fundamentals (bubbles), which risk-averse smart money will then stay away from rather than try taking advantage of the mispricing (i.e. never short a bubble). The movement in the prices are typically short-term, and usually see some sort of reversal back to fundamentals in the long-term, for small (i.e. < $5000) trades. Apparently, the opposite is true for large trades; here’s an excerpt from the paper to explain.
Stocks recently sold by small traders perform poorly (−64 bps per month, t = −5.16), while stocks recently bought by small traders perform well (73 bps per month, t = 5.22). Note this return predictability represents a short-run continuation rather than reversal of returns; stocks with a high weekly proportion of buys perform well both in the week of strong buying and the subsequent week. This runs counter to the well-documented presence of short-term reversals in weekly returns.14,15 Portfolios based on the proportion of buys using large trades yield precisely the opposite result. Stocks bought by large traders perform poorly in the subsequent week (−36 bps per month, t = −3.96), while those sold perform well (42 bps per month, t = 3.57). We find a positive relationship between the weekly proportion of buyers initiated small trades in a stock and contemporaneous returns. Kaniel, Saar, and Titman (forthcoming) find retail investors to be contrarians over one-week horizons, tending to sell more than buy stocks with strong performance. Like us, they find that stocks bought by individual investors one week outperform the subsequent week. They suggest that individual investors profit in the short run by supplying liquidity to institutional investors whose aggressive trades drive prices away from fundamental value and benefiting when prices bounce back. Barber et al. (2005) document that individual investors can earn short term profits by supplying liquidity. This story is consistent with the one-week reversals we see in stocks bought and sold with large trades. Aggressive large purchases may drive prices temporarily too high while aggressive large sells drive them too low both leading to reversals the subsequent week.
Thus, using a one-week time horizon, following the trend can make you tendies for a few days, as long as you don’t play the game for too long, and end up being the bag holder when the music stops.

The Keynesian Beauty Contest

The economic basis for what’s going on in the stock market recently - retail investors driving up stocks, especially bankrupt stocks, past fundamental levels can be explained by the Keynesian Beauty Contest, a concept developed by Keynes himself to help rationalize price movements in the stock market, especially during the 1920s stock market bubble. A quote by him on the topic of this concept, that “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”, is possibly the most famous finance quote of all time.
The idea is to imagine a fictional newspaper beauty contest that asks the reader to pick the six most attractive faces of 100 photos, and you win if you pick the most popular face. The naive strategy would be to pick the faces that you think are the most attractive. A smarter strategy is to figure out what the most common public perception of attractiveness would be, and to select based on that. Or better yet, figure out what most people believe is the most common public perception of what’s attractive. You end up having the winners not actually be the faces people think are the prettiest, but the average opinion of what people think the average opinion would be on the prettiest faces. Now, replace pretty faces with fundamental values, and you have the stock market.
What we have today is the extreme of this. We’re seeing a sudden influx of dumb retail money into the market, who don’t know or care about fundamentals, like trading penny stocks, and are buying beaten down stocks (i.e. “buy the dip”). The stocks that best fit all three of these are in fact companies that have just gone bankrupt, like HTZ and WLL. This slowly becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as people start seeing bankrupt stocks go up 100% in one day, they stop caring about what stocks have the best fundamentals and instead buy the stocks that people think will shoot up, which are apparently bankrupt stocks. Now, it gets to the point where even if a trader knows a stock is bankrupt, and understands what bankruptcy means, they’ll buy the stock regardless expecting it to skyrocket and hope that they’ll be able to sell the stock at a 100% profit in a few days to an even greater fool. The phenomenon is well known in finance, and it even has a name - The Greater Fool Theory. I wouldn’t be surprised if the next stock to go bankrupt now has their stock price go up 100% the next day because of this.

What is the smart money doing - DIX & GEX

Alright that’s enough talk about dumb money. What’s all the smart money (institutions) been doing all this time? For that, you’ll want to look at what’s been going on with dark pools. These are private exchanges for institutions to make trades. Why? Because if you’re about to buy a $1B block of SPY, you’re going to cause a sudden spike in prices on a normal, public exchange, and probably end up paying a much higher cost basis because of it. These off-exchange trades account for about one third of all stock volume. You can then use data of market maker activity in these dark pools to figure out what institutions have been doing, the most notable indicators being DIX by SqueezeMetrics.
Another metric they offer is GEX, or gamma exposure. The idea behind this is that market markets who sell option contracts, typically don’t want to (or can’t legally) take an actual position in the market; they can only provide liquidity. Hence, they have to hedge their exposure from the contracts they wrote by going long or short on the stocks they wrote contracts to. This is called delta-hedging, with delta representing exposure to the movement of a stock. With options, there’s gamma, which represents the change in delta as the stock price moves. So as stock prices move, the market maker needs to re-hedge their positions by buying or selling more shares to remain delta-neutral. GEX is a way to show the total exposure these market makers have to gamma from contracts to predict stock price movements based on what market makers must do to re-hedge their positions.
Now, let’s look at what these indicators have been doing the past week or so.
DIX & GEX
In the graph above, an increasing DIX means that institutions are buying stocks in the S&P500, and an increasing GEX means that market makers have increasing gamma exposure. The DIX whitepaper, it has shown that a high DIX is often correlated with increased near-term returns, and in the GEX whitepaper, it shows that a decreased GEX is correlated with increased volatility due to re-hedging. It looks like from last week’s crash, we had institutions buy the dip and add to their current positions. There was also a sudden drop in GEX, but it looks like it’s quickly recovered, and we’ll see volatility decreased next week. Overall, we’re getting bullish signals from institutional activity.

Bubbles and Market Sentiment

I’ve long held that the stock market and the economy has been in a decade-long bubble caused by liquidity pumping from the Fed. Recently, the bubble has been accelerated and it’s becoming clearer to people that we are in a bubble. Nevertheless, you shouldn’t short the bubble, but play along with it until it bursts. Bubbles are driven by pure sentiment, and this can be a great contrarian indicator to what stage of the bubble we are in. You want to be a bear when the market is overly greedy and a bull when the market is overly bearish. One of the best tools to measure this is the equity put / call ratio.
Put / Call Ratio
The put/call ratio dropped below 0.4 last week, something that’s almost never happened and has almost always been immediately followed up by a correction - which it did this time as well. A low put / call ratio is usually indicative of an overly-greedy market, and a contrarian indicator that a drop is imminent. However, right after the crash, the put/call ratio absolutely skyrocketed, closing right above 0.71 on Friday, above the mean put / call ratio for the entire rally since March’s lows. In other words, a ton of money has just been poured into SPY puts expecting to profit off of a downtrend. In fact, it’s possible that the Wednesday correction itself has been exasperated by delta hedging from SPY put writers. However, this sudden spike above the mean for put/call ratio is a contrarian indicator that we will now see a continued rally.

Technicals

Magic Markers on SPY, Daily
With Technical Indicators, there’s a few things to note
  • 1D RSI on SPY was definitely overbought last week, and I should have taken this as a sign to GTFO from all my long positions. The correction has since brought it back down, and now SPY has even more room to go further up before it becomes overbought again
  • 1D MACD crossed over on Wednesday to bearish - a very strong bearish indicator, however 1W MACD is still bullish
  • For the bulls, there’s very little price levels above 300, with a small possible resistance at 313, which is the 79% fib retracement. SPY has never actually hit this price level, and has gapped up and down past this price. Below 300, there’s plenty of levels of support, especially between 274 and 293, which is the range where SPY consolidated and traded at for April and May. This means that a movement up will be met with very little resistance, while a movement down will be met with plenty of support
  • The candles above 313 form an island top pattern, a pretty rare and strong bearish indicator.
The first line of defense of the bulls is 300, which has historically been a key support / resistance level, and is also the 200D SMA. So far, this price level has held up as a solid support last week and is where all downwards price action in SPY stopped. Overall, there’s very mixed signals coming from technical indicators, although there’s more bearish signals than bullish.
My Strategy for Next Week
While technicals are pretty bearish, retail and institutional activity and market sentiment is indicating that the market still continue to rally. My strategy for next week will depend on whether or not the market opens above or below 300. I’m currently mostly holding long volatility positions, that I’ve started existing on Friday.
The Bullish case
If 300 proves to be a strong support level, I’ll start entering bullish positions, following my previous strategy of going long on weak sectors such as airlines, cruises, retail, and financials, once they break above the 24% retracement and exit at the 50% retracement. This is because there’s very little price levels and resistance above 300, so any movements above this level will be very parabolic up to ATHs, as we saw in the beginning of 2020 and again the past two weeks. If SPY moves parabolic, the biggest winners will likely be the weakest stocks since they have the most room to go up, with most of the strongest stocks already near or above their ATHs. During this time, I’ll be rolling over half of my profits to VIX calls of various expiry dates as a hedge, and in anticipation of any sort of rug pull for when this bubble does eventually pop.
The Bearish case
For me to start taking bearish positions, I’ll need to see SPY open below 300, re-test 300 and fail to break above it, proving it to be a resistance level. If this happens, I’ll start entering short positions against SPY to play the price levels. There’s a lot of price levels between 300 and 274, and we’d likely see a lot of consolidation instead of a big crash in this region, similar to the way up through this area. Key levels will be 300, 293, 285, 278, and finally 274, which is the levels I’d be entering and exiting my short positions in.
I’ve also been playing with WLL for the past few months, but that has been a losing trade - I forgot that a market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent. I’ll probably keep a small position on WLL puts in anticipation of the court hearing for the disclosure statement, but I’ve sold most of my existing positions.

Live Updates

As always, I'll be posting live thoughts related to my personal strategy here for people asking.
6/15 2AM - /ES looking like SPY is going to gap down tomorrow. Unless there's some overnight pump, we'll probably see a trading range of 293-300.
6/15 10AM - Exited any remaining long positions I've had and entered short positions on SPY @ 299.50, stop loss at 301. Bearish case looking like it's going to play out
6/15 10:15AM - Stopped out of 50% of my short positions @ 301. Will stop out of the rest @ 302. Hoping this wasn't a stop loss raid. Also closed out more VIX longer-dated (Sept / Oct) calls.
6/15 Noon - No longer holding any short positions. Gap down today might be a fake out, and 300 is starting to look like solid support again, and 1H MACD is crossing over, with 15M remaining bullish. Starting to slowly add to long positions throughout the day, starting with CCL, since technicals look nice on it. Also profit-took most of my VIX calls that I bought two weeks ago
6/15 2:30PM - Bounced up pretty hard from the 300 support - bull case looks pretty good, especially if today's 1D candle completely engulphs the Friday candle. Also sold another half of my remaining long-dated VIX calls - still holding on to a substantial amount (~10% of portfolio). Will start looking to re-buy them when VIX falls back below 30. Going long on DAL as well
6/15 11:30PM - /ES looking good hovering right above 310 right now. Not many price levels above 300 so it's hard to predict trading ranges since there's no price levels and SPY will just go parabolic above this level. Massive gap between 313 and 317. If /ES is able to get above 313, which is where the momentum is going to right now, we might see a massive gap up and open at 317 again. If it opens below 313, we might see the stock price fade like last week.
6/15 Noon - SPY filled some of the gap, but then broke below 313. 15M MACD is now bearish. We might see gains from today slowly fade, but hard to predict this since we don't have strong price levels. Will buy more longs near EOD if this happens. Still believe we'll be overall bullish this week. GE is looking good.
6/16 2PM - Getting worried about 313 acting as a solid resistance; we'll either probably gap up past it to 317 tomorrow, or we might go all the way back down to 300. Considering taking profit for some of my calls right now, since you'll usually want to sell into resistance. I might alternatively buy some 0DTE SPY puts as a hedge against my long positions. Will decide by 3:30 depending on what momentum looks like
6/16 3PM - Got some 1DTE SPY puts as a hedge against my long positions. We're either headed to 317 tomorrow or go down as low as 300. Going to not take the risk because I'm unsure which one it'll be. Also profit-took 25% of my long positions. Definitely seeing the 313 + gains fade scenario I mentioned yesterday
6/17 1:30AM - /ES still flat struggling to break through 213. If we don't break through by tomorrow I might sell all my longs. Norwegian announced some bad news AH about cancelling Sept cruises. If we move below $18.20 I'll probably sell all my remaining positions; luckily I took profit on CCL today so if options do go to shit, it'll be a relatively small loss or even small gain.
6/17 9:45AM - SPY not being able to break through 313/314 (79% retracement) is scaring me. Sold all my longs, and now sitting on cash. Not confident enough that we're actually going back down to 300, but no longer confident enough on the bullish story if we can't break 313 to hold positions
6/17 1PM - Holding cash and long-term VIX calls now. Some interesting things I've noticed
  1. 1H MACD will be testing a crossover by EOD
  2. Equity put/call ratio has plummeted. It's back down to 0.45, which is more than 1 S.D. below the mean. We reached all the way down to 0.4 last time. Will be keeping a close eye on this and start buying for VIX again + SPY puts we this continues falling tomorrow
6/17 3PM - Bought back some of my longer-dated VIX calls. Currently slightly bearish, but still uncertain, so most of my portfolio is cash right now.
6/17 3:50PM - SPY 15M MACD is now very bearish, and 1H is about to crossover. I'd give it a 50% chance we'll see it dump tomorrow, possibly towards 300 again. Entered into a very small position on NTM SPY puts, expiring Friday
6/18 10AM - 1H MACD is about to crossover. Unless we see a pump in the next hour or so, medium-term momentum will be bearish and we might see a dump later today or tomorrow.
6/18 12PM - Every MACD from 5M to 1D is now bearish, making me believe we'd even more likely see a drop today or tomorrow to 300. Bought short-dates June VIX calls. Stop loss for this and SPY puts @ 314 and 315
6/18 2PM - Something worth noting: opex is tomorrow and max pain is 310, which is the level we're gravitating towards right now. Also quad witching, so should expect some big market movements tomorrow as well. Might consider rolling my SPY puts forward 1 week since theoretically, this should cause us to gravitate towards 310 until 3PM on Friday.
6/18 3PM - Rolled my SPY puts forward 1W in case theory about max pain + quad witching end up having it's theoretical effect. Also GEX is really high coming towards options expiry tomorrow, meaning any significant price movements will be damped by MM hedging. Might not see significant price movements until quad witching hour tomorrow 3PM
6/18 10PM - DIX is very high right now, at 51%, which is very bullish. put/call ratio is still very low though. Very mixed signals. Will be holding positions until Monday or SPY 317 before reconsidering them.
6/18 2PM - No position changes. Coming into witching hour we're seeing increased volatility towards the downside. Looking good so far
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

PSA for IB investors: TSLA margin rate currently at ~77% due to their Collateral Value Pricing (CVP) policy

TLDR (for real): The CVP margin rate (currently 77.9%) is actually just based on a cap on the $/share you can borrow. Which means the borrowable $ amount will not go down with the price. The cap on $/share is based on how low the stock has been in the last year.
CVP = the lowest adjusted average price over 20 consecutive trading days in the past year
CVP Margin Rate = Close Price – CVP / Close Price
What's important to note here is the nature of this equation. It's very much different from the static margin percentage that is normally applied. With the static (currently 40%) margin rate, when the stock value drops, the amount you can borrow also drops, which obviously is what causes margin calls (or with IB, immediate liquidation :) ).
But with CVP, the percent is dependent on the current price. So the rate goes down when the stock goes down. It essentially acts as a CAP on the dollar amount you can borrow. That cap is the CVP which is about $490 per share right now. So you can only borrow $490 per share.
If the share price were to drop again, then eventually the CVP rate would drop below the standard rate, and then the actual dollar amount you can borrow against your shares would begin dropping with the share price (like usual).
So moral of the story is that the CVP margin rate won't actually cause any unexpected liquidation. It just caps the $/share you can borrow.
Got this response direct from IB:
IBKR continually reviews its margin requirements with the objective of striking a balance between reasonable leverage and prudent risk management.The leverage offered on TSLA shares has been reduced due to our Collateral Value Pricing (CVP) policy.
The collateral value pricing policy was put in place by IBKR's upper management team and has been completely vetted and reviewed on numerous occasions. As you note, the implementation of the collateral value price (CVP) calculation constrains the amount of margin loan value (MLV) that IBKR is willing to lend to an account based on a new collateral value price (CVP). The purpose of CVP is to protect IBKR from a scenario in which a stock has a run up in price, for which we then allow a client to purchase the stock at the top using the nominal margin rate and the stock subsequently returns to its prior lower price level in a rapid decline. If the descent is greater than the nominal margin interval the potential for loss to IBKR will increase. We seek to set CVP at a level which the stock can reasonably sustain.
The current CVP Margin rate for TSLA is approximately 77%.
Regards, Frank IBKR Risk Group
Update: They gave me some more information including TSLA's current CVP and how it's used to calculate the CVP margin rate.
IBKR's CVP Margin Policy has been in effect for a number of years. The CVP Margin Rate acts as a delta-based house charge. A net delta is calculated for your entire TSLA position which is multiplied by the CVP margin rate and stock value. This policy is not exclusive to TSLA. It applies to all equities.
Current CVP = 493.126 TSLA = 2,235.890 CVP Margin Rate = 77.9%
CVP Margin Rate = Close Price – CVP / Close Price.
(2,235.890 - 493.126) / 2,235.890 = 77.9%
Update 2: Finally!! They finally explained it!! Why couldn't they just say this to begin with!
The collateral value price is the lowest adjusted average price over 20 consecutive trading days in the past year.
submitted by benbenwilde to teslainvestorsclub [link] [comments]

3 Years Today. The GDAX Flash Crash of 2017 - ETH fell from $319 to $0.10

3 Years Today. The GDAX Flash Crash of 2017 - ETH fell from $319 to $0.10 submitted by serenity2021 to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Top options trading mistakes that you should not make

This is my post on wsbelite. Repost here for all.
IMO, trading options have similarities to playing poker and in order to be successful in the long run you need to be disciplined and refrain from making common mistakes. I’m going to list common mistakes and some tips here. Please suggest more. Hope we all lose less tendies!
  1. Refrain to trade low volume options . These contracts will have really wild bid/ask spread, or really low volume, which reduces your chance to make profit significantly. For example how can you win if you trade $ROPE 100c when the bid ask spread is $69/$96 per contract?
  2. Refrain to trade very low price options (e.g 1-10 cents) because your broker commissions will eat up a significant amount of the transactions. Think how much commissions you have to pay to buy 10000 contracts of 0.01 $ROPE 1000c which costs $10000 of premium.
  3. Refrain to buy near-dated far OTM options, because this is almost a sure way to burn your money. Even worse, even if you guess the direction right, you may still have a substantial loss. Think $PEI 500% OTM 2DTE. Btw $PEI is a great stock to own. Example: on 04/13 you bought SPY 496c 04/17 when SPY=280. On 04/14 SPY rises to 285. Guess how much you made on your call options?
  4. Know when to select OTM vs ITM options: in general: OTM is higher risk/higher return. Have some sense of OTM price movement - even when you guess the direction right, far OTM options won’t make you money because of low delta. ITM is more expensive. ATM is typically a safe choice if you just want to make a directional bet.
  5. Know theta-crush. Your options will lose time-value every day, so refrain from buying short-dated options unless you know what you're doing.
  6. Know the effects of IV (VIX for SPY) on options price. Sometimes even when you guess the direction rights, you may lose money because of VIX movements. Know how to hedge for VIX movement.
  7. Refrain from using market orders when possible: limit orders will give you the price you want.
  8. Understand the margin impact of different options strategies.
  9. Understand the impact of your broker commissions.
  10. Bank management: never YOLO your entire portfolio into one position, because if you lose, there’s 0% chance to make it back. Learn http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/basic/bankroll-management/. If you want to get in a large (50K+) position, average in/out may be a good idea.
  11. Don't open too many positions unless you're a bot. It's hard to manage manually and easy to make mistakes.
  12. (Mostly) don't follow autist DDs that you can't explain.
  13. Learn the market hours!
  14. Options strategies can be complex to visualized. Use your broker's performance profile tool to understand the performance implications before making a trade.
Some risky options strategies that you should only do when you know what you’re doing
Less risky options strategies:
  1. Covered calls: very low risk. You hold shares, and sell OTM calls to cover them and collect the premium.
  2. Cash secured puts: sell puts but you have cash to cover it. This is good when you’re willing to buy the shares if it drops, otherwise you collect the premium.
  3. Diagonal: Simultaneously entering into a long and short position in two options of the same type (two call options or two put options) but with different strike prices and different expiration dates. Typically these structures are on a 1 x 1 ratio. This is less risky and can hedge you against IV as well. For example if you bearish on USO, buy a 4p 05/15 and sell a 3.5p 04/24, that way if USO moves upward on the week ending 04/24 you’ll collect the near-dated premium.
  4. Learn how to sell options. Every mistake you made as an option buyer is probably a chance for you to profit as an option-seller.
Practical tips
  1. Use tools to scan top volume options. https://www.barchart.com/options/volume-leaders . This can give you some confirmation.
  2. Use tools to scan unusual activity options. https://www.barchart.com/options/unusual-activity Try to think why people are making that trade. Your broker also has tools to scan these.
  3. Take advantage of L2 flow data if your broker provides.
  4. Sometime when you can't make a long-term directional bet, it may be profitable to day-trade or swing-trade (hold your positions for 1-3 days).
  5. Know common ETFs:
Tips to improve
Learn more about economics and business to improve your common sense.
Advanced topics: understand how MM works, gamma hedging, dark pool indicators, probably understand some TAs such as RSI.
Day trade dynamics: power hours.
Things to debate
  1. Should you use stop-loss orders or not?
  2. When to buy FDs and how much should you spend on FDs?
  3. What is the impact of the underlying delisted on put options? As example OILU closed on 03/29 https://materials.proxyvote.com/Approved/MC3724/20200316/SUP_421079.PDF
submitted by tinkerprophet to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

A Beginner's Guide to Oil

Everyone here is freaking out about oil, and literally every post is so incorrect and idiotic that I had to step in and put an end to this nonsense. Full disclose, I'm a professional trader. You might think you are a professional trader, but you're not. Professional traders get paid to trade with someone else's money not waste time lighting their own on fire. This is going to be long because there's been a varying degree of idiocy the last few days and I want to make sure no idiot is left behind.
So first, you need to understand what a futures contract is. You are basically agreeing on a price to buy/sell Oil at a FUTURE time. For the May contract it is today (4/21), the June contract is roughly a month from now. There are futures that go out for many years. If you trade the June 2024 contract, you are speculating on the price of oil that will be delivered in June 2024. If you make a plot of the prices of these futures contract with the y-axis being price and the x-axis being the expiration date and connect the dots, you end up with the futures curve. The shape of the curve is an expression of time preference. If the shape of the curve is going from lower left up and to the right, then the curve is said to be in Contango. This means that there is too much oil available now and people are not willing to pay a high price for it right now, but are willing to pay more to take delivery later. The opposite is when the curve is going from upper left to lower right. This is called Backwardation. This happens when there is a short term supply shortage. Imagine a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico shutting down oil rigs. There will be a shortage this month, but things will get back to normal in six months. Currently we are in Contango because there's too much oil being produced, and nobody is using it because of coronavirus. Some of you semi idiots have thought, "hey! why don't I just buy some front month oil futures and sell some back months and wait?" Well the problem is that you need to take delivery and store it. This has a cost, and it varies depending on many different factors. If you actually were an oil major and could do this (which they are). This would be called a positive carry trade meaning you get paid to just hold (carry) the trade.
Before we get further, there we also need to explain the delivery aspect of futures. Some futures like the SP500 futures are cash settled. That means at expiration, you get the difference paid to you in cash instead of getting SPY or a basket of 500 stocks delivered to you. Others, like the CL oil contract, are physically settled. This means that you will actually get 1000 barrels of physical oil at expiration and you cannot refuse it. Furthermore, futures contracts are meant to be fungible, but there has to be some standards otherwise people would just be delivering watered down oil all the time and the whole thing breaks down. The CL contract that went negative is based on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma. There are many types of different crude oils delivered all over the place, but the other major futures contract is Brent Crude. That is oil from deep in the ocean somewhere off the coast of the UK. The reason I make this distinction is because Brent did not go negative yesterday. Why is that? Well because delivery location matters. Cushing, OK is landlocked. There are storage facilities onsite, but they're all full. Brent is waterborne. You can just send up another tanker ship fill it up and park it somewhere. What happened yesterday is that all the longs on CL who did not want to take delivery had to sell, but there was no one who wanted to take it at almost any price because they also had nowhere to store it. Interesting fact, many years ago WTI traded at a premium to Brent because the biggest user of oil was America and it was cheaper to get it in Oklahoma than ship it from Europe. Now it's the opposite. Nobody wants this landlocked oil.
So what are the implications? May expiration was an anomaly, if you expect to see -40 in the June contract, I can almost guarantee you won't. Longs have seen what can happen if you wait too long so they will sell earlier (as today's price action already shows). Also, the carry trade will get ramped up more. One day is not enough time to find a bunch of tanker trucks, but one month is.
If all that was too complex, here's an idiot's Q&A mostly collected from yesterday's posts
"OMG oils is so cheap, it's definitely going to be worth $40 in a few years, shouldn't I buy USO?"
Everyone who bought USO lately is completely fucked. This is really what prompted me to write this whole thing. USO historically buys the front month contract, waits until it's close to expiration and sells it and buys the next months. This is the exact opposite of the positive carry trade that professionals are doing. What they are doing is called rolling and assuming the world doesn't change soon, they will be losing $10 per barrel per month doing this. Also, they've gotten so large from the retail inflows lately that they've breached max size on CME so now they can only allocate 80% to the front month and 20% to the second month. This is all public info, so basically everyone knows that in a few weeks USO has to sell 30% of the open interest in the front month and buy that much in the second month. What do you think will happen to the prices of those contracts when they go to roll? Also, look at the price of the futures contract for 2024. They are already pricing in $40+ so USO already has that priced in and is just waiting to get destroyed on rolling each month.
The ETF "OIL" just announced they are liquidating.

"OMG oil is negative, let's buy a tanker ship and dump it in there
Good luck sailing your tanker ship to landlocked Cushing, OK. As stated above, this is why Brent Crude is not negative.
"Well I can just rent a bunch of tanker trucks for next month, can't I?"
All the big companies are lining up additional/weird storage capacity for next month. This is why I predict you won't see June go negative unless there are other technical issues like margin requirements and forced FCM liquidations.
"Some genius bought $10k worth of May 50 cent puts. They are sooo rich right?"
Wrong, options expire the week before the futures. Those options expired worthless
"Wow I never knew this about CL/USO/life. Is this because the Elite are keeping us down?"
No it's because you're too lazy to read contract specifications. No pro trades a product without fully understanding it.
USO fund prospectus:
http://www.uscfinvestments.com/documents/united-states-oil-fund-pro-20180228.pdf
CL contracts specs:
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude_contractSpecs_futures.html
CL delivery rules:
https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/rulebook/NYMEX/2/200.pdf
EDIT: fixed typo and added more to Q&A. If you have more dumb questions. I'll add them as I see them
submitted by bluecar223 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Trading suspended?

Looks like they pulled the plug?
Hardware issue:
https://blog.bitmex.com/site_announcement/system-status-update-13-march-2020/
XBTUSD was trading at a 11% discount at one point, probably more in the liquidation spikes.
Maybe a good idea to take a breather?
Edit: I got api feeds back at 02:27Z. The order book is way thin. Other markets are rallying heavily.
02:57Z - Lost api feeds again. - Back at 03:00Z
submitted by Glaaki to BitMEX [link] [comments]

Why did I get liquidated?

I opened a long position on Binance futures on Ethereumwith (x10) ..with 40 dollars (all the wallet ballance), entry price was 399, liquidating price was 337 ... yet when Ethereum dropped to 362, the position got liquidated at 362. I do not know the reason I thought it would be liquidated at 337 as I swa when opened the position. do I miss something or something went wrong?

submitted by gam777 to binance [link] [comments]

Nexo is insolvent due to Chainlink's recent rise?

"Looking into Nexo's business model it's increasingly clear to me that they are insolvent due to chainlink's recent rise.
A brief introduction to how these crypto deposit/lending sites generally work, or are supposed to work.
You deposit a cryptocurrency. Someone else wants to borrow it against their own cryptocurrency as collateral (reasons typically are to get some funds without selling their own crypto, or for margin trading). The borrower pays an interest rate, the lender receives a lower interest rate and the middleman (in this case it would be nexo) takes a large cut of the difference.
A decentralized version of this is Aave. Centralised versions are crypto.com and nexo.
Typically stablecoins have the highest borrow and lending interest rate, because demand to borrow them is highest. Next is typically bitcoin/ethereum, and most ERC tokens are very low because there's little demand to borrow them. Chainlink has been close to 0 on the likes of Aave as well as binance for months, while nexo pays 5%.
Now, nexo's business model is a bit different. While they take deposits in LINK and pay 5% on them, it seems they do not lend out LINK or other cryptocurrencies. Instead they lend out fiat.
This means they are not lending out assets deposited by other users, like Aave and binance. Instead it would mean they are selling user deposits to fiat and then lending out said fiat.
Chainlink has been trading as low as $1.8 this year and mostly in the $3-5 range. No doubt chainlink deposits are very popular with nexo, there are lots of long term holders and the 5% interest rate they claim to pay is much higher than elsewhere. So this likely means they've taken a lot of LINK deposits and sold them to fiat.
So why is this a problem?
Well the way this business SHOULD work is:
User A deposits 1 BTC. User B borrows 1 BTC. A receives 1%, B pays 2%, and the middleman/nexo would receive the 1% cut.
Nexo doesn't care which way the price of bitcoin moves. It has one bitcoin as a receivable (that which B has borrowed) and one bitcoin as a payable (that which A has deposited). It's overall exposure is zero.
However, it's clear that nexo's business model is:
User A deposits 1000 LINK Nexo sells 1000 LINK for $5 each User B borrows $5000
So now, nexo has 1000 LINK as a payable, and 5000 USD as a receivable.
As you can see, nexo is essentially opening a large synthetic short on every asset that is deposited with them.
Now LINK goes to $8. Suddenly nexo has $5000 in receivables and $8000 in payables. Now consider this but with millions of dollars of LINK deposits. Nexo is now insolvent.
Look at the site yourself (if you trust it, I understand if you don't). You can confirm all this yourself. Their business model is not sustainable. This is the first crack. And absolutely explains why they have released the fraudulent short report. It's because they are close to insolvent.
Do you think it's a coincidence that they recently stopped paying interest in LINK and are paying in USD?
A corollary of the above is that your LINK deposits , or any deposits on nexo are not safe. They likely do not have enough LINK to honour all deposits.
Nexo likely received a load of chainlink deposits. Possibly millions of LINK. Chainlink has an attribute that there are lots of long term holders who would all love to receive interest on their LINK. The recent price increase in LINK means nexo can’t afford to pay back all their LINK deposits.
They likely sell LINK as it comes in. Which means they’ve been selling as low as $1.80 and are essentially short since then.
All it takes is one large positive news piece on LINK to seal their fate, and with oracle partnership, Microsoft partnership likely end of August and staking around the corner it could come very soon.
If this goes to news outlets that will take this information to whales that are self-interested in fishing for liquidations."
Any thoughts on this? Nexo going belly up as soon as Link moons?
submitted by QuantLink to Chainlink [link] [comments]

Interesting Factoid About the S&P in May

If you look at how the S&P has traded in May, you may notice that over 100% of the upside move has been overnight, as in through low volume gaps. If you tally up all the moves during cash hours, we traded NEGATIVE.
Does this alarm anyone? To me, it looks like a distribution pattern in which there's massive selling during the day into any strength. Combine that with the various indicators that show institutional is NOT participating much in this rally and I feel like we're sitting on a time bomb waiting to go off.
Does anyone see anything else that affirms or disproves my theory here?
submitted by Blizzgrarg to investing [link] [comments]

The dollar standard and how the Fed itself created the perfect setup for a stock market crash

Disclaimer: This is neither financial nor trading advice and everyone should trade based on their own risk tolerance. Please leverage yourself accordingly. When you're done, ask yourself: "Am I jacked to the tits?". If the answer is "yes", you're good to go.
We're probably experiencing the wildest markets in our lifetime. After doing some research and listening to opinions by several people, I wanted to share my own view on what happened in the market and what could happen in the future. There's no guarantee that the future plays out as I describe it or otherwise I'd become very rich.
If you just want tickers and strikes...I don't know if this is going to help you. But anyways, scroll way down to the end. My current position is TLT 171c 8/21, opened on Friday 7/31 when TLT was at 170.50.
This is a post trying to describe what it means that we've entered the "dollar standard" decades ago after leaving the gold standard. Furthermore I'll try to explain how the "dollar standard" is the biggest reason behind the 2008 and 2020 financial crisis, stock market crashes and how the Coronavirus pandemic was probably the best catalyst for the global dollar system to blow up.

Tackling the Dollar problem

Throughout the month of July we've seen the "death of the Dollar". At least that's what WSB thinks. It's easy to think that especially since it gets reiterated in most media outlets. I will take the contrarian view. This is a short-term "downturn" in the Dollar and very soon the Dollar will rise a lot against the Euro - supported by the Federal Reserve itself.US dollar Index (DXY)If you zoom out to the 3Y chart you'll see what everyone is being hysterical about. The dollar is dying! It was that low in 2018! This is the end! The Fed has done too much money printing! Zimbabwe and Weimar are coming to the US.
There is more to it though. The DXY is dominated by two currency rates and the most important one by far is EURUSD.EURUSD makes up 57.6% of the DXY
And we've seen EURUSD rise from 1.14 to 1.18 since July 21st, 2020. Why that date? On that date the European Commission (basically the "government" of the EU) announced that there was an agreement for the historical rescue package for the EU. That showed the markets that the EU seems to be strong and resilient, it seemed to be united (we're not really united, trust me as an European) and therefore there are more chances in the EU, the Euro and more chances taking risks in the EU.Meanwhile the US continued to struggle with the Coronavirus and some states like California went back to restricting public life. The US economy looked weaker and therefore the Euro rose a lot against the USD.
From a technical point of view the DXY failed to break the 97.5 resistance in June three times - DXY bulls became exhausted and sellers gained control resulting in a pretty big selloff in the DXY.

Why the DXY is pretty useless

Considering that EURUSD is the dominant force in the DXY I have to say it's pretty useless as a measurement of the US dollar. Why? Well, the economy is a global economy. Global trade is not dominated by trade between the EU and the USA. There are a lot of big exporting nations besides Germany, many of them in Asia. We know about China, Japan, South Korea etc. Depending on the business sector there are a lot of big exporters in so-called "emerging markets". For example, Brazil and India are two of the biggest exporters of beef.
Now, what does that mean? It means that we need to look at the US dollar from a broader perspective. Thankfully, the Fed itself provides a more accurate Dollar index. It's called the "Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad, Goods and Services".
When you look at that index you will see that it didn't really collapse like the DXY. In fact, it still is as high as it was on March 10, 2020! You know, only two weeks before the stock market bottomed out. How can that be explained?

Global trade, emerging markets and global dollar shortage

Emerging markets are found in countries which have been shifting away from their traditional way of living towards being an industrial nation. Of course, Americans and most of the Europeans don't know how life was 300 years ago.China already completed that transition. Countries like Brazil and India are on its way. The MSCI Emerging Market Index lists 26 countries. Even South Korea is included.
However there is a big problem for Emerging Markets: the Coronavirus and US Imports.The good thing about import and export data is that you can't fake it. Those numbers speak the truth. You can see that imports into the US haven't recovered to pre-Corona levels yet. It will be interesting to see the July data coming out on August 5th.Also you can look at exports from Emerging Market economies. Let's take South Korean exports YoY. You can see that South Korean exports are still heavily depressed compared to a year ago. Global trade hasn't really recovered.For July the data still has to be updated that's why you see a "0.0%" change right now.Less US imports mean less US dollars going into foreign countries including Emerging Markets.Those currency pairs are pretty unimpressed by the rising Euro. Let's look at a few examples. Use the 1Y chart to see what I mean.
Indian Rupee to USDBrazilian Real to USDSouth Korean Won to USD
What do you see if you look at the 1Y chart of those currency pairs? There's no recovery to pre-COVID levels. And this is pretty bad for the global financial system. Why? According to the Bank of International Settlements there is $12.6 trillion of dollar-denominated debt outside of the United States. Now the Coronavirus comes into play where economies around the world are struggling to go back to their previous levels while the currencies of Emerging Markets continue to be WEAK against the US dollar.
This is very bad. We've already seen the IMF receiving requests for emergency loans from 80 countries on March 23th. What are we going to see? We know Argentina has defaulted on their debt more than once and make jokes about it. But what happens if we see 5 Argentinas? 10? 20? Even 80?
Add to that that global travel is still depressed, especially for US citizens going anywhere. US citizens traveling to other countries is also a situation in which the precious US dollars would enter Emerging Market economies. But it's not happening right now and it won't happen unless we actually get a miracle treatment or the virus simply disappears.
This is where the treasury market comes into play. But before that, let's quickly look at what QE (rising Fed balance sheet) does to the USD.
Take a look at the Trade-Weighted US dollar Index. Look at it at max timeframe - you'll see what happened in 2008. The dollar went up (shocker).Now let's look at the Fed balance sheet at max timeframe. You will see: as soon as the Fed starts the QE engine, the USD goes UP, not down! September 2008 (Fed first buys MBS), March 2009, March 2020. Is it just a coincidence? No, as I'll explain below. They're correlated and probably even in causation.Oh and in all of those scenarios the stock market crashed...compared to February 2020, the Fed balance sheet grew by ONE TRILLION until March 25th, but the stock market had just finished crashing...can you please prove to me that QE makes stock prices go up? I think I've just proven the opposite correlation.

Bonds, bills, Gold and "inflation"

People laugh at bond bulls or at people buying bonds due to the dropping yields. "Haha you're stupid you're buying an asset which matures in 10 years and yields 5.3% STONKS go up way more!".Let me stop you right there.
Why do you buy stocks? Will you hold those stocks until you die so that you regain your initial investment through dividends? No. You buy them because you expect them to go up based on fundamental analysis, news like earnings or other things. Then you sell them when you see your price target reached. The assets appreciated.Why do you buy options? You don't want to hold them until expiration unless they're -90% (what happens most of the time in WSB). You wait until the underlying asset does what you expect it does and then you sell the options to collect the premium. Again, the assets appreciated.
It's the exact same thing with treasury securities. The people who've been buying bonds for the past years or even decades didn't want to wait until they mature. Those people want to sell the bonds as they appreciate. Bond prices have an inverse relationship with their yields which is logical when you think about it. Someone who desperately wants and needs the bonds for various reasons will accept to pay a higher price (supply and demand, ya know) and therefore accept a lower yield.
By the way, both JP Morgan and Goldmans Sachs posted an unexpected profit this quarter, why? They made a killing trading bonds.
US treasury securities are the most liquid asset in the world and they're also the safest asset you can hold. After all, if the US default on their debt you know that the world is doomed. So if US treasuries become worthless anything else has already become worthless.
Now why is there so much demand for the safest and most liquid asset in the world? That demand isn't new but it's caused by the situation the global economy is in. Trade and travel are down and probably won't recover anytime soon, emerging markets are struggling both with the virus and their dollar-denominated debt and central banks around the world struggle to find solutions for the problems in the financial markets.
How do we now that the markets aren't trusting central banks? Well, bonds tell us that and actually Gold tells us the same!
TLT chartGold spot price chart
TLT is an ETF which reflects the price of US treasuries with 20 or more years left until maturity. Basically the inverse of the 30 year treasury yield.
As you can see from the 5Y chart bonds haven't been doing much from 2016 to mid-2019. Then the repo crisis of September 2019took place and TLT actually rallied in August 2019 before the repo crisis finally occurred!So the bond market signaled that something is wrong in the financial markets and that "something" manifested itself in the repo crisis.
After the repo market crisis ended (the Fed didn't really do much to help it, before you ask), bonds again were quiet for three months and started rallying in January (!) while most of the world was sitting on their asses and downplaying the Coronavirus threat.
But wait, how does Gold come into play? The Gold chart basically follows the same pattern as the TLT chart. Doing basically nothing from 2016 to mid-2019. From June until August Gold rose a staggering 200 dollars and then again stayed flat until December 2019. After that, Gold had another rally until March when it finally collapsed.
Many people think rising Gold prices are a sign of inflation. But where is the inflation? We saw PCE price indices on Friday July 31st and they're at roughly 1%. We've seen CPIs from European countries and the EU itself. France and the EU (July 31st) as a whole had a very slight uptick in CPI while Germany (July 30th), Italy (July 31st) and Spain (July 30th) saw deflationary prints.There is no inflation, nowhere in the world. I'm sorry to burst that bubble.
Yet, Gold prices still go up even when the Dollar rallies through the DXY (sadly I have to measure it that way now since the trade-weighted index isn't updated daily) and we know that there is no inflation from a monetary perspective. In fact, Fed chairman JPow, apparently the final boss for all bears, said on Wednesday July 29th that the Coronavirus pandemic is a deflationary disinflationary event. Someone correct me there, thank you. But deflationary forces are still in place even if JPow wouldn't admit it.
To conclude this rather long section: Both bonds and Gold are indicators for an upcoming financial crisis. Bond prices should fall and yields should go up to signal an economic recovery. But the opposite is happening. in that regard heavily rising Gold prices are a very bad signal for the future. Both bonds and Gold are screaming: "The central banks haven't solved the problems".
By the way, Gold is also a very liquid asset if you want quick cash, that's why we saw it sell off in March because people needed dollars thanks to repo problems and margin calls.When the deflationary shock happens and another liquidity event occurs there will be another big price drop in precious metals and that's the dip which you could use to load up on metals by the way.

Dismantling the money printer

But the Fed! The M2 money stock is SHOOTING THROUGH THE ROOF! The printers are real!By the way, velocity of M2 was updated on July 30th and saw another sharp decline. If you take a closer look at the M2 stock you see three parts absolutely skyrocketing: savings, demand deposits and institutional money funds. Inflationary? No.
So, the printers aren't real. I'm sorry.Quantitative easing (QE) is the biggest part of the Fed's operations to help the economy get back on its feet. What is QE?Upon doing QE the Fed "purchases" treasury and mortgage-backed securities from the commercial banks. The Fed forces the commercial banks to hand over those securities and in return the commercial banks reserve additional bank reserves at an account in the Federal Reserve.
This may sound very confusing to everyone so let's make it simple by an analogy.I want to borrow a camera from you, I need it for my road trip. You agree but only if I give you some kind of security - for example 100 bucks as collateral.You keep the 100 bucks safe in your house and wait for me to return safely. You just wait and wait. You can't do anything else in this situation. Maybe my road trip takes a year. Maybe I come back earlier. But as long as I have your camera, the 100 bucks need to stay with you.
In this analogy, I am the Fed. You = commercial banks. Camera = treasuries/MBS. 100 bucks = additional bank reserves held at the Fed.

Revisiting 2008 briefly: the true money printers

The true money printers are the commercial banks, not the central banks. The commercial banks give out loans and demand interest payments. Through those interest payments they create money out of thin air! At the end they'll have more money than before giving out the loan.
That additional money can be used to give out more loans, buy more treasury/MBS Securities or gain more money through investing and trading.
Before the global financial crisis commercial banks were really loose with their policy. You know, the whole "Big Short" story, housing bubble, NINJA loans and so on. The reckless handling of money by the commercial banks led to actual money printing and inflation, until the music suddenly stopped. Bear Stearns went tits up. Lehman went tits up.
The banks learned from those years and completely changed, forever. They became very strict with their lending resulting in the Fed and the ECB not being able to raise their rates. By keeping the Fed funds rate low the Federal Reserve wants to encourage commercial banks to give out loans to stimulate the economy. But commercial banks are not playing along. They even accept negative rates in Europe rather than taking risks in the actual economy.
The GFC of 2008 completely changed the financial landscape and the central banks have struggled to understand that. The system wasn't working anymore because the main players (the commercial banks) stopped playing with each other. That's also the reason why we see repeated problems in the repo market.

How QE actually decreases liquidity before it's effective

The funny thing about QE is that it achieves the complete opposite of what it's supposed to achieve before actually leading to an economic recovery.
What does that mean? Let's go back to my analogy with the camera.
Before I take away your camera, you can do several things with it. If you need cash, you can sell it or go to a pawn shop. You can even lend your camera to someone for a daily fee and collect money through that.But then I come along and just take away your camera for a road trip for 100 bucks in collateral.
What can you do with those 100 bucks? Basically nothing. You can't buy something else with those. You can't lend the money to someone else. It's basically dead capital. You can just look at it and wait until I come back.
And this is what is happening with QE.
Commercial banks buy treasuries and MBS due to many reasons, of course they're legally obliged to hold some treasuries, but they also need them to make business.When a commercial bank has a treasury security, they can do the following things with it:- Sell it to get cash- Give out loans against the treasury security- Lend the security to a short seller who wants to short bonds
Now the commercial banks received a cash reserve account at the Fed in exchange for their treasury security. What can they do with that?- Give out loans against the reserve account
That's it. The bank had to give away a very liquid and flexible asset and received an illiquid asset for it. Well done, Fed.
The goal of the Fed is to encourage lending and borrowing through suppressing yields via QE. But it's not happening and we can see that in the H.8 data (assets and liabilities of the commercial banks).There is no recovery to be seen in the credit sector while the commercial banks continue to collect treasury securities and MBS. On one hand, they need to sell a portion of them to the Fed on the other hand they profit off those securities by trading them - remember JPM's earnings.
So we see that while the Fed is actually decreasing liquidity in the markets by collecting all the treasuries it has collected in the past, interest rates are still too high. People are scared, and commercial banks don't want to give out loans. This means that as the economic recovery is stalling (another whopping 1.4M jobless claims on Thursday July 30th) the Fed needs to suppress interest rates even more. That means: more QE. that means: the liquidity dries up even more, thanks to the Fed.
We heard JPow saying on Wednesday that the Fed will keep their minimum of 120 billion QE per month, but, and this is important, they can increase that amount anytime they see an emergency.And that's exactly what he will do. He will ramp up the QE machine again, removing more bond supply from the market and therefore decreasing the liquidity in financial markets even more. That's his Hail Mary play to force Americans back to taking on debt again.All of that while the government is taking on record debt due to "stimulus" (which is apparently only going to Apple, Amazon and Robinhood). Who pays for the government debt? The taxpayers. The wealthy people. The people who create jobs and opportunities. But in the future they have to pay more taxes to pay down the government debt (or at least pay for the interest). This means that they can't create opportunities right now due to the government going insane with their debt - and of course, there's still the Coronavirus.

"Without the Fed, yields would skyrocket"

This is wrong. The Fed has been keeping their basic level QE of 120 billion per month for months now. But ignoring the fake breakout in the beginning of June (thanks to reopening hopes), yields have been on a steady decline.
Let's take a look at the Fed's balance sheet.
The Fed has thankfully stayed away from purchasing more treasury bills (short term treasury securities). Bills are important for the repo market as collateral. They're the best collateral you can have and the Fed has already done enough damage by buying those treasury bills in March, destroying even more liquidity than usual.
More interesting is the point "notes and bonds, nominal". The Fed added 13.691 billion worth of US treasury notes and bonds to their balance sheet. Luckily for us, the US Department of Treasury releases the results of treasury auctions when they occur. On July 28th there was an auction for the 7 year treasury note. You can find the results under "Note -> Term: 7-year -> Auction Date 07/28/2020 -> Competitive Results PDF". Or here's a link.
What do we see? Indirect bidders, which are foreigners by the way, took 28 billion out of the total 44 billion. That's roughly 64% of the entire auction. Primary dealers are the ones which sell the securities to the commercial banks. Direct bidders are domestic buyers of treasuries.
The conclusion is: There's insane demand for US treasury notes and bonds by foreigners. Those US treasuries are basically equivalent to US dollars. Now dollar bears should ask themselves this question: If the dollar is close to a collapse and the world wants to get rid fo the US dollar, why do foreigners (i.e. foreign central banks) continue to take 60-70% of every bond auction? They do it because they desperately need dollars and hope to drive prices up, supported by the Federal Reserve itself, in an attempt to have the dollar reserves when the next liquidity event occurs.
So foreigners are buying way more treasuries than the Fed does. Final conclusion: the bond market has adjusted to the Fed being a player long time ago. It isn't the first time the Fed has messed around in the bond market.

How market participants are positioned

We know that commercial banks made good money trading bonds and stocks in the past quarter. Besides big tech the stock market is being stagnant, plain and simple. All the stimulus, stimulus#2, vaccinetalksgoingwell.exe, public appearances by Trump, Powell and their friends, the "money printing" (which isn't money printing) by the Fed couldn't push SPY back to ATH which is 339.08 btw.
Who can we look at? Several people but let's take Bill Ackman. The one who made a killing with Credit Default Swaps in March and then went LONG (he said it live on TV). Well, there's an update about him:Bill Ackman saying he's effectively 100% longHe says that around the 2 minute mark.
Of course, we shouldn't just believe what he says. After all he is a hedge fund manager and wants to make money. But we have to assume that he's long at a significant percentage - it doesn't even make sense to get rid of positions like Hilton when they haven't even recovered yet.
Then again, there are sources to get a peek into the positions of hedge funds, let's take Hedgopia.We see: Hedge funds are starting to go long on the 10 year bond. They are very short the 30 year bond. They are very long the Euro, very short on VIX futures and short on the Dollar.

Endgame

This is the perfect setup for a market meltdown. If hedge funds are really positioned like Ackman and Hedgopia describes, the situation could unwind after a liquidity event:The Fed increases QE to bring down the 30 year yield because the economy isn't recovering yet. We've already seen the correlation of QE and USD and QE and bond prices.That causes a giant short squeeze of hedge funds who are very short the 30 year bond. They need to cover their short positions. But Ackman said they're basically 100% long the stock market and nothing else. So what do they do? They need to sell stocks. Quickly. And what happens when there is a rapid sell-off in stocks? People start to hedge via put options. The VIX rises. But wait, hedge funds are short VIX futures, long Euro and short DXY. To cover their short positions on VIX futures, they need to go long there. VIX continues to go up and the prices of options go suborbital (as far as I can see).Also they need to get rid of Euro futures and cover their short DXY positions. That causes the USD to go up even more.
And the Fed will sit there and do their things again: more QE, infinity QE^2, dollar swap lines, repo operations, TARP and whatever. The Fed will be helpless against the forces of the market and have to watch the stock market burn down and they won't even realize that they created the circumstances for it to happen - by their programs to "help the economy" and their talking on TV. Do you remember JPow on 60minutes talking about how they flooded the world with dollars and print it digitally? He wanted us poor people to believe that the Fed is causing hyperinflation and we should take on debt and invest into the stock market. After all, the Fed has it covered.
But the Fed hasn't got it covered. And Powell knows it. That's why he's being a bear in the FOMC statements. He knows what's going on. But he can't do anything about it except what's apparently proven to be correct - QE, QE and more QE.

A final note about "stock market is not the economy"

It's true. The stock market doesn't reflect the current state of the economy. The current economy is in complete shambles.
But a wise man told me that the stock market is the reflection of the first and second derivatives of the economy. That means: velocity and acceleration of the economy. In retrospect this makes sense.
The economy was basically halted all around the world in March. Of course it's easy to have an insane acceleration of the economy when the economy is at 0 and the stock market reflected that. The peak of that accelerating economy ("max velocity" if you want to look at it like that) was in the beginning of June. All countries were reopening, vaccine hopes, JPow injecting confidence into the markets. Since then, SPY is stagnant, IWM/RUT, which is probably the most accurate reflection of the actual economy, has slightly gone down and people have bid up tech stocks in absolute panic mode.
Even JPow admitted it. The economic recovery has slowed down and if we look at economic data, the recovery has already stopped completely. The economy is rolling over as we can see in the continued high initial unemployment claims. Another fact to factor into the stock market.

TLDR and positions or ban?

TLDR: global economy bad and dollar shortage. economy not recovering, JPow back to doing QE Infinity. QE Infinity will cause the final squeeze in both the bond and stock market and will force the unwinding of the whole system.
Positions: idk. I'll throw in TLT 190c 12/18, SPY 220p 12/18, UUP 26c 12/18.That UUP call had 12.5k volume on Friday 7/31 btw.

Edit about positions and hedge funds

My current positions. You can laugh at my ZEN calls I completely failed with those.I personally will be entering one of the positions mentioned in the end - or similar ones. My personal opinion is that the SPY puts are the weakest try because you have to pay a lot of premium.
Also I forgot talking about why hedge funds are shorting the 30 year bond. Someone asked me in the comments and here's my reply:
"If you look at treasury yields and stock prices they're pretty much positively correlated. Yields go up, then stocks go up. Yields go down (like in March), then stocks go down.
What hedge funds are doing is extremely risky but then again, "hedge funds" is just a name and the hedgies are known for doing extremely risky stuff. They're shorting the 30 year bond because they needs 30y yields to go UP to validate their long positions in the equity market. 30y yields going up means that people are welcoming risk again, taking on debt, spending in the economy.
Milton Friedman labeled this the "interest rate fallacy". People usually think that low interest rates mean "easy money" but it's the opposite. Low interest rates mean that money is really tight and hard to get. Rising interest rates on the other hand signal an economic recovery, an increase in economic activity.
So hedge funds try to fight the Fed - the Fed is buying the 30 year bonds! - to try to validate their stock market positions. They also short VIX futures to do the same thing. Equity bulls don't want to see VIX higher than 15. They're also short the dollar because it would also validate their position: if the economic recovery happens and the global US dollar cycle gets restored then it will be easy to get dollars and the USD will continue to go down.
Then again, they're also fighting against the Fed in this situation because QE and the USD are correlated in my opinion.
Another Redditor told me that people who shorted Japanese government bonds completely blew up because the Japanese central bank bought the bonds and the "widow maker trade" was born:https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/widow-maker.asp"

Edit #2

Since I've mentioned him a lot in the comments, I recommend you check out Steven van Metre's YouTube channel. Especially the bottom passages of my post are based on the knowledge I received from watching his videos. Even if didn't agree with him on the fundamental issues (there are some things like Gold which I view differently than him) I took it as an inspiration to dig deeper. I think he's a great person and even if you're bullish on stocks you can learn something from Steven!

submitted by 1terrortoast to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Tesla Stock Hits All Time High as S&P 500 Expectations Rise + Elon Musk Tweets (TSLA)

Tesla Stock Hits All Time High as S&P 500 Expectations Rise + Elon Musk Tweets (TSLA) submitted by vinodjetley to teslainvestorsclub [link] [comments]

An actual, serious look at Hertz as an investment.

This isn’t my typical type of investment, nor am I holding (or advocating people to hold) Hertz.
However, with the recent publicity this way getting, I decided to take a quick look at it and see if there was any substance behind the rise in Hertz after bankruptcy. As I’m writing, HTZ is trading at $2.83, giving it a market cap of $403mm. I’m assuming that the bankruptcy continues and the following is a liquidation view of the stock. Under Chapter 11, the company hopes to continue its operations at a reduced scale. During proceedings, shareholders are last in line to receive anything from the bankruptcy, after secured and unsecured creditors.
Off the most recent 10-Q:
Assets:
There was $1 billion in cash
There was $2 billion in receivables.
There were $14.3 billion of cars which will be sold off.
Liabilities that have to be paid off before shareholders get anything:
There’s $14 billion of secured debt used to purchase the cars (almost exactly the same as value of the actual cars)
There are $4 billion of bonds, and let’s say $2 billion of other unsecured liabilities.
There are continuing operating costs despite no revenue after the 10-Q due to the lockdown, and also costs throughout bankruptcy.
So now let’s add up all the assets and see what the shareholder will end up with:
It’s likely any flood of used cars into the marketplace will depress prices significantly and make the $14 billion unrealistic to achieve. For the sake of the HTZ holders, I’m going to assume that they get the full sum, which completely pays off the secured debt.
It’s difficult to judge what operating costs they’ve had, since they’ve cut operations at the same time as revenue dried up due to the pandemic. For the sake of simplicity, let’s say the costs this quarter cancel out the cash on hand completely, and the accounts payable cancel with the accounts receivable.
The costs of a Chapter 11 bankruptcy for a company this size are massive, and will likely cost the entirety of the capital raise – if it is successful.
So now, we have:
$4 billion of bonds that need to be paid off before the shareholder STARTS to get anything out of the company. This is backed up by the bond yields before the whole massive explosion started, where they yielded in a range from 20-25%.
So essentially, the long thesis on Hertz right now is that Hertz have undervalued their used cars by a considerable margin; the smaller, reorganised Hertz will be extremely successful at creating cashflow in the future while starting with no assets (and no debt).
Edit: This is extremely unlikely to happen in my opinion (though not impossible), and frankly imo if you're interested in trading penny stocks there are more interesting options out there, both whether you're long or whether you're short.
submitted by InfiniteValueptr to investing [link] [comments]

I want to open a margin long(1.5x) on ethereum. With 500+ eth. What’s the best place to do this?

submitted by kevinpasta to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Cornering Silver Market

Cornering Silver Market
Would you like to entertain yourself with a story about one of the greatest schemes in the history and, maybe, learn a few plays? This story is about three brave autistic brothers, who almost cornered the entire commodity and how one (not so brave, but shrewd) bank did it without anyone noticing. As in any good fable – there’s a moral and a strategy that you could draw from it.
The year is 1971. Nixon temporarily abolishes gold standard. And every temporary government program is never reversed, as you know. Trading price of gold went sky high: from 270s to 800s in two years or so. Enter Hunt brothers, sons of H. L. Hunt, oil tycoon, one of, if not the, richest man in the world at that time. Hunt family was, what one might describe as, right-wing libertarian and anti-globalist. They believed that Keynesian economics and the US shift to the left in the 60s will lead to the debasement of the US dollar and monetary collapse. Thus, return to the gold or silver standard was the way, as they thought. Allegedly, Hunts also had a feud with Rothschild family and other financial speculators, and were resentful towards the US government for doing nothing to protect their oil assets in Libya, confiscated by Gaddafi. So they started their move against America, alpha-silver bug style.
In 1973 Hunts began buying all the silver they could. And, instead of just speculating futures contracts, they actually took delivery. Initial price was $1.5/oz. Silver was shipped to Switzerland in secretive and costly operations and stored in vaults (brothers feared confiscations – remember, private citizens were still prohibited from owning gold in the US).
The following events are quite vivid and include the efforts to create a cartel similar to OPEC, talks with Iran and Saudi monarchs, pump and dump publicity and large scale purchases of miners. But we will spare the details, except one: Hunts even tried to corner the soy market at the same time. Reminds you how WSB slv gang quickly switched to corn gang. But the soy scheme didn't fly and they focused on silver only. Their efforts pumped the price to almost $50/oz by early 1980. At some point Hunts controlled around 230 million oz of silver and the majority of what was traded.

Hunt brothers laughing at your pump&dump effort

Of course, when you are such a smart ass, you become a target. Chicago exchange officials became very concerned citizens by 1979. They started issuing numerous regulations limiting the amount of market share one can accumulate in one hands. As all American concerned citizens, they had financial incentive to do so: Hunts managed to prove that Chicago exchange board members had short positions against silver. Finally, CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) issued a ruling that basically forced Hunts to liquidate part of their portfolio by February 1980. This sent silver prices down dramatically and brothers started to get margin calls which they could not cover. And so their story ended with bankruptcies and heavy fines for the family. Shortly after, Reagan and Volcker raised interest rates and silver price never recovered to $50/oz ever since.
We skip to the year 2008. Global financial crisis is in full swing. Bear Stearns is royally fucked, as due to all bears. Before the music was over, they mastered paper speculation of futures contracts like no one else. Bear Stearns accumulated world biggest naked short position on silver. What could go wrong? Stonks go up, silver goes down. Until it reversed and silver skyrocketed from $11 to $21. This became one of the margin calls to screw Bear Stearns. JP Morgan is asked by the FED and co. to buy out BS and to save the entire market. Since BS's shorts are now deeply down - JPM gets the whole bank with pennies on a dollar.
But the problem is that JPM themselves have massive naked short position on silver. Combined with BS it will exceed anything permitted by the CFTC. Since Obama administration was in a rush, they push CFTC to grant JPM basically a carte blanche to accumulate any position over the limit for a period of time. Period of time comes due and turns out that JPM not only didn’t trim the shorts significantly – they even bought more shorts at some point. Even with all the fines, it went very much their way, because in 2009 silver dropped. So they pocketed hundreds of millions of dollars.
But come 2011 and silver spiked again, dramatically. JPM, now bleeding cash on shorts, could close short positions, like any of us would do, right? Nope, fuckyall says JPM and starts hedging short futures positions with… physical silver. 'But wouldn’t that be even more control over the commodity?' - you might ask. See, nothing in the rules of CFTC says you can’t do that, because to help cronies speculate with paper futures contracts, made of thin air, CFTC basically started treating physical silver and futures as two different instruments (it’s, actually, even more complicated than that: google difference between physical, eligible, registered and so on).
In the next 9 years JPM becomes the world biggest holder of both short contracts and physical silver. The later they 'loaned' to SLV trust, of which they are custodian. This way upkeep of physical silver, which otherwise would be a liability for hedging, becomes an asset, because we, retards, who own SLV pay the maintenance. People are often confused here, because SLV is issued by Black Rock, not JPM. Well, there is a difference between being an operator of a financial instrument and being a custodian providing backing. Now, to confuse you even more – JPM is one of the major holders of Black Rock itself with 1.6% or sth like that.
By estimates of Theodore Butler, JPM acquired 900 million oz of physical silver since 2011. That’s 4 times more than what Hunts owned. Just shows you, that banks can get a pass with something that even the richest individuals can not. And you have to give it to JPM - their play was very clever. Instead of risking it all on a margin call, they make money on every turn.
As of 2020, JPM still holds both shitton of physical silver and short COMEX contracts. You can call this the most epic straddle of all time. With such mass they can swing prices in any directions and profit from this on any given day. Latest example you’ve seen on the August 11th.
Why am I bothering your poor gambling soul with this wall of text, you might ask? Market makers manipulate the market as they please, what’s new about that? Well, here we come to the conclusions and a strategy. How can a small retard replicate what the big boys are doing?
Conclusions:
  1. There will not be a linear up or down with silver and the swings might be dramatic. The reason being not only the sentiment of investors, but the ease of manipulation that is eligible to big players.
  2. If we believe that speculation will throw the price of silver in all directions – it is unwise to go only long or short on silver, especially on a short term;
What shall we do?
a) Only long expiration dates and calls; no weekly expiration, not even monthly. Ideally – at least half year options;
b) Go long on certain silver stocks. Maybe I’ll do a write up on good silver stocks to buy;
c) Sell covered calls on long positions;
d) Buy 1-3 month puts on your long positions as a hedge;
Now, day trade with those positions: on red days sell your puts and buy back covered calls. On green days – reload puts and sell calls. Repeat until lambo.
P. S.: I gathered these facts from the open sources, since these events were of interest to me. Some facts are intentionally oversimplified, google for more details, there are good reads. And feel free to correct me if you know contradictory facts.
P. P. S.: JPM, plz don’t whack me.
submitted by negovany to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

An actual, serious look at Hertz as an investment.

This isn’t my typical type of investment, nor am I holding (or advocating people to hold) Hertz.
However, with the recent publicity this way getting, I decided to take a quick look at it and see if there was any substance behind the rise in Hertz after bankruptcy.As I’m writing, HTZ is trading at $2.83, giving it a market cap of $403mm.I’m assuming that the bankruptcy continues and the following is a liquidation view of the stock. Under Chapter 11, the company hopes to continue its operations at a reduced scale. During proceedings, shareholders are last in line to receive anything from the bankruptcy, after secured and unsecured creditors.
Off the most recent 10-Q:
Assets:
There was $1 billion in cash
There was $2 billion in receivables.
There were $14.3 billion of cars which will be sold off.
Liabilities that have to be paid off before shareholders get anything:
There’s $14 billion of secured debt used to purchase the cars (almost exactly the same as value of the actual cars)
There are $4 billion of bonds, and let’s say $2 billion of other unsecured liabilities.
There are continuing operating costs despite no revenue after the 10-Q due to the lockdown, and also costs throughout bankruptcy.
So now let’s add up all the assets and see what the shareholder will end up with:
It’s likely any flood of used cars into the marketplace will depress prices significantly and make the $14 billion unrealistic to achieve. For the sake of the HTZ holders, I’m going to assume that they get the full sum, which completely pays off the secured debt.
It’s difficult to judge what operating costs they’ve had, since they’ve cut operations at the same time as revenue dried up due to the pandemic. For the sake of simplicity, let’s say the costs this quarter cancel out the cash on hand completely, and the accounts payable cancel with the accounts receivable.
The costs of a Chapter 11 bankruptcy for a company this size are massive, and will likely cost the entirety of the capital raise – if it is successful.
So now, we have:
$4 billion of bonds that need to be paid off before the shareholder STARTS to get anything out of the company. This is backed up by the bond yields before the whole massive explosion started, where they yielded in a range from 20-25%.
So essentially, the long thesis on Hertz right now is that Hertz have undervalued their used cars by a considerable margin; the smaller, reorganised Hertz will be extremely successful at creating cashflow in the future while starting with no assets (and no debt).

Edit: It seems a lot of people are misreading my post. I did this analysis purely as an academic exercise. The results of it (need to find $4bn of equity somewhere before shareholders get anything) pretty clearly demonstrate that HTZ is a bad investment, yet a lot of people seem to have gotten the idea that I'm advocating for people to go long.
submitted by InfiniteValueptr to stocks [link] [comments]

MCS | Merits and Risks of Margin Trading!

MCS | Merits and Risks of Margin Trading!
\This post has been written by Hedgehog, an MCS influencer and one of Korea's famous cryptocurrency key opinion leaders.*

https://preview.redd.it/a9uk2xrvt3j51.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=13d42f8d1dc135e3eaca8b4340cd2c0dbc8fa83e
#Be_a_Trader!
Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first.

These days, those who invest in spot trading of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are entering into bitcoin margin trading, which lets traders earn high returns with little capital. Today, we will talk about the merits and risks of bitcoin margin trading.
First of all, what are the advantages of bitcoin margin trading on MCS?

🎯 Up to 100x leverage Available!

On the MCS cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, you can trade on margin using up to 100x leverage. The use of up to 100 times leverage means that you can manage up to 100 times the amount of assets you own. If you make an investment by depositing 0.1 BTC on the MCS cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, you can utilize an asset of 0.1 BTC * 100 times = 10 BTC!

🎯 You can short sell on the price drop of Bitcoin!

In the traditional cryptocurrency spot exchanges, the concept of short selling does not exist at all, so the phrase "short sell on the price drop of Bitcoin" might sound a little off to some of you. In the stock market, short selling is an investment strategy in which if the price of a particular stock is expected to fall, you borrow stocks and place a sell order without holding actual stocks. Later when the price actually falls, you buy stocks at a low price, repay the borrowed amount, and take profit from the difference in return in the process. On the MCS cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, trading is conducted in contract units not spot, and if you want to short sell, you can enter a short position and make a counter order if the price decreases in the future to realize the profit from the difference.
💡 "A picture is worth a thousand words."
Like this adage, you should not be just reading this article, but got to try Bitcoin short selling on MCS with the $5 bonus given to new traders!
Register to MCS Cryptocurrency Derivatives Exchange: https://mycoinstory.com/register
Receive MCS $5 Welcome Bonus: https://mycoinstory.com/promotions/event
MCS cryptocurrency derivatives exchange where you can trade on margin with up to 100 times and short sell on a decline in cryptocurrency prices!! But, it is important to know that there are as many risks as advantages.

🎯 Profits can be Doubled, Losses can be Doubled!

If you trade on margin with up to 100x leverage, the profit made is amplified tremendously, but on the contrary, the loss may roll up like a snowball. So keep in mind that even if you can trade your assets on margin with up to 100x, reckless use of leverage can lead to huge losses, so you should always trade strategically!

🎯 Risk of Liquidation!

If you trade on margin with up to 100x leverage, you shouldn't only worry about huge losses. There is a concept called margin call, which is called liquidation. In the case of liquidation, if the maintenance margin rate of the position you are holding is not maintained at 0.5%, the liquidation will be forced, and if the liquidation proceeds, the amount held as your margin in the position will become zero. In short, you can lose all of your investments. We will explain in detail about the liquidation next time.
💡 "Leverage is a Double-edged Sword."
Without a doubt, leverage has both merits and risks. Leverage trading is a typical high-risk high-return, a double-edged sword that can be beneficial or harmed to you depending on how you use it. I wish all MCS traders to realize financial freedom by wisely using this leverage, a key element of Bitcoin margin trading, along with short selling.
I am a Bitcoin margin trader, Hedgehog. Thank you for reading this post.
\Trading with leverage is clearly a way to earn a large return; however, it is highly risky. Before trading with leverage, I strongly recommend that you fully understand the advantages and disadvantages of leveraged trading.*
🔸 MCS Official Website : https://mycoinstory.com
🔸 MCS Telegram : https://t.me/mycoinstory_en

Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS.
Thank you.

MCS Official Twitter (EN): https://twitter.com/mycoinstory_mcs
MCS Official Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.official
submitted by MyCoinStory to MyCoinStory [link] [comments]

How To Margin Trade Cryptocurrency on Liquid Trading S&P Long Liquidation Strategy - Price Ladder ... Bitcoin Futures 11,000 Contract liquidation Live Bitcoin Chart Liquidation Watch: August 4 2020 - YouTube Live Bitcoin Chart Liquidation Watch: August 4 2020 - YouTube

Introducing the liquidation price concept. Although it might seem like a curse at the first look, liquidation price is one of the greatest advantages that stand to the benefit of the trader when it comes to margin trading. Liquidation margin refers to the value of all of the equity positions in a margin account. If an investor or trader holds a long position, the liquidation margin is equal to what the investor or ... Calculating liquidation price. The liquidation level on Bitfinex is of 15%. For a position of $3333.3 with a collateral of $1000, liquidation happens when you have a loss of $1000 - $500 = $500 on your position. Thus, when your position reaches $3833.3: This gives you a liquidation price of $1725: Increasing, reducing, reversing the position ... Open Price & Close Price. Remember what we said about margin trading: A margin trade is basically a trade made with borrowed money, on which way a product price will move and how much it will move. One margin trade involves two orders. Example: Your total balance is $50. You put $10 into a margin trade at 10x leverage and borrow $100. In Margin Trading, every position has a Liquidation Price based on their Maintenance Margin rate, entry price, and leverage. In general, Liquidation occurs when the margin level of a position ...

[index] [26] [773] [827] [710] [448] [582] [306] [808] [625] [315]

How To Margin Trade Cryptocurrency on Liquid

How to Long or Short Bitcoin - Margin Trading Explained - ByBit Exchange Tutorial - Duration: 28:05. The Crypto Lark 6,366 views. 28:05. Don't Talk to the Police - Duration: 46:39. 🔴 Watch Day Trading Live - August 4, NYSE & NASDAQ Stocks (Live Streaming) Stock Market Today by TraderTV Live 5,150 watching Live now CNBC's Becky Quick interviews Warren Buffett (2/25/19 ... Watch the full video on a free two week trial at https://www.AxiaFutures.com/ Spoo gunning for record highs. Lots of people looking for this break higher. Wh... The liquidation is a long position that was run down to margin call price. The liquidation is a long position that was run down to margin call price. ... Bitmex Margin Trading Strategy 100x ... Bitcoin Live Btc Price Liquidation Watch Bull vs Bear Pump or Dump Bitcoin Currency Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency. It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single ...

#