Margins for delivery trades - Upstox

What if I told you OPERATION 10 BAGS is actually OPERATION 20 BAGS - Courtesy of Albertsons (ACI)

Edit 1: I wouldn't rush to get in immediately with how poor SPY/QQQ look at open. Waiting until later in the day when they've maybe bottomed out is likely a better move
Edit 2: Broader market looks to have stabilized. Congrats if you bought the dip. But now is time to get balls deep - I'm in the process of tripling my position
u/trumpdiego 's post from a few days ago on ACI inspired me to do some research of my own, and it seems operation 10 bags may actually be a 20 bagger
Post for reference: https://new.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/huq9eq/operation\10_bags_brought_to_you_by_albertsons/)
TL;DR: ACI is a leader in multiple sub-sectors that the market has been pumping lately. Their stock hasn’t increased as much as competitors in the last month, and it is cheaper than all of them on a P/E basis. Grocery prices have been rising faster than ever before. ACI is driving customers to their stores at a rate higher than anyone else in the industry. Online grocery sales were likely close to a record $19B in Q2. ACI’s online grocery sales were up +243% in April, and close to +220% this last quarter. Both of those last two facts suggest over $36B in quarterly revenue, compared to a street consensus of ~$23B.
TL;DR for the TL;DR: Albertons Companies (ACI) 8/21 $20C’s are going to the moon when they report earnings before market open on Monday 7/27, but potentially sooner if any other online grocers report what you’re about to read below. And I'll show you exactly why referencing the data that the big bois use to evaluate investments.
Primer for the type of autist who likes to know what he’s YOLOing options on:
ACI is a food and drug retailer that offers grocery products, general merchandise, health and beauty care products, pharmacy, and fuel in the United States, with local presence and national scale. They also own Safeway, Tom Thumb , Acme, Shaw’s, Star Market, United Supermarkets, Vons, Jewel-Osco, Randalls, Market Street, Pavilions, Carrs, and Haggen as well as meal kit company Plated based in New York City. Additionally, ACI is the #1 or #2 grocer by market share in 68% of the 121 MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Area) they operate in.
And here’s the good part:
ACI is a leader in the online grocery shopping/delivery marketplace. They offer home delivery services in ~65% of their 2,200 stores, and have partnerships with Instacart, Uber Eats, and Grubhub to facilitate 1-2 hour delivery in 90% of their locations. Guess whose stock is up 75% this quarter? Grubhub. Think the market likes food delivery?
Besides online grocery shopping, what else is surging due to COVID-19? Meal kits. And guess what, ACI is one of the only grocers with a meal kit offering. Demand is surging so much that Blue Apron (APRN) decided to go public on June 24th, and is already up 22.47% since then. Think the market likes meal kits?
Now back to your regularly scheduled programming:
Before I get into the industry and ACI specific numbers that make me TSLA levels of bullish on ACI – let me tell you what the market thinks.
Q: “Why do I care what the market thinks? I’m smarter than it!” – Probably most of you.
A: “Because it doesn’t matter how right you are if the market doesn’t agree, especially when YOLOing short term options.
Market Trends:
Over the last 30 days, ACI shares are up a meager 3.43%, currently trading at a 7.3x P/E multiple of consensus 2020 earnings. Check out what the most comparable companies to ACI have done over the last 30 days, and associated 2020 expected earnings P/E they are trading at:
Grocery Outlet (GO): +11.30% (39.7x)
Kroger (KR): +9.16% (11.9x)
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM): +15.71% (15.1x)
So what does that tell you?
The market loves grocery stores right now in corona times (no shit), and ACI is relatively the cheapest stock out of all of them. The performance of Grubhub (+75% in Q2), Blue Apron (+22.47% since 6/24/20 IPO), and literally every single online retailer tell you the market’s opinion on online shopping, food delivery, and meal kits as well. If ACI were to trade at KR’s 11.9x P/E, that would make the stock worth $26.15, +63% from close today. Wonder what that means for option tendies…
Oh what’s that? You’re asking why ACI could start trading on par with KR at a 11.9x P/E? Great question! Let me get into why this sexy boi will print:
Starting from a macro perspective, CPI: Food at Home (NSA) is the consumer price metric that tracks inflation in food prices as grocery stores and related establishments. After deflating -.16% in 2018 and inflating just .03% in 2019, CPI: Food at Home (NSA) is +4.74% thus far in 2020. Why is this? Food prices are historically correlated with Disposable Personal Income, which also increased at its highest rate ever through Q2’2020. So as long as big daddy Powell has the money printer going brrrrrr, Albertsons will be making more and more money on each sale.
Now, this food price inflation does benefit every grocer. However, let’s take a look at the ID Sales (which is the grocer equivalent of same-store-sales) trends recently for ACI and its main competitors that I was able to find data on:

ACI KR SFM
Q1 +23.5% +19% +10%
March +47% +30% +26%
April +21% +20% +7%

So through at least April, ACI has been in a class of their own when it comes to generating repeated traffic at their locations. Courtesy of the fine people at Morgan Stanley, we also know ID Sales were +16% in June (so you can deduce they were in the +17% to +20% range in May), and still up “double-digit percentage” thus far in July.
So far we’re established that ACI is selling their products for the most they ever have, and generating more traffic at identical stores than all their competitors. This data is affirmed by JP Morgan’s foot traffic index which shows ACI taking customer from Kroger.
But wait – here’s the sexy part:
Time to forecast ACI’s online sales this quarter using published industry data:
According to new research released 7/6/20 by Brick Meets Click and Mercatus, U.S. online grocery sales hit a record $7.2 billion in June, up 9% over May. Let’s do some quick maths and deduce that online grocery sales were $6.61B in May. Now let’s be super conservative and say May was a 20% increase over April (realistically I would guess closer to +5-10%), and that gives us $5.51B in online grocery sales in April. This means we likely had ~$19B in online grocery sales in Q2.
As ACI represented 1.60% of the online grocery marketplace in 2019, that would imply $304M in online revenue this past quarter. This is very conservative though, as even after assuming a 20% drop in April relative to May, we also assumed their market share stayed at 1.60%. Remember those nice people at JPM who’s foot traffic tracker told us that ACI was stealing customers from KR? Well they also estimate ACI’s 1.60% market share in online groceries to reach 2.50%-2.80% in 2025, with a CAGR (cumulative average growth rate) of ~9% in market share per year. That means their 1.60% market share is likely 1.744% now. Take 1.744% of $19B, and:

!!!!That means $331.36M of online sales!!!!

Remember this number
Now that we have an estimate for ACI’s online sales based on the broader industry trends, lets come up with an estimate using only company data:
On their last earnings call, management noted that online sales had grown 83% in 2018, 39% in 2019, +278% in the first 12-weeks of 2020, and +243% in April (Remember this number too!). Can you hear your Robinhood account balance going brrrrr? If not, the oven is about to get turned up faster Jerome can print a milli:
Math time!
· ACI did ~$265.4M in online sales in 2018.
Source: https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2019/11/04/albertsons-embraces-omnichannel-retail/#:~:text=Albertsons%20does%20not%20break%20out,%2461%20billion%20in%20total%20revenue.
· That means they did ~370M in online sales in 2019.
· ACI had $62.455B in 2019 revenue.
· Which means 0.59% of their sales were online.
· Working backwards off their Q2’19 revenue of $18.738B, we arrive at $111M in online revenue.
· Let’s be conservative and assume some sequential decline from their April online sales growth (the second number you should have remembered) and put Q2 online sales at +220%.

!!!!That means $355M in online sales!!!!

Remember that first number I told you to keep in mind? $331.36M. Considering entirely different data sets were used to find each number, it may not be so crazy to think it could be a pretty accurate forecast of the online sales when they report earnings.
But since you’re so smart I know you’re on the edge of your seat wondering what that would mean for their total revenue
Let’s take the average of both forecasts, and use $343.18M as our forecast for online revenue. Given online sales were 0.59% of 2019 revenue, it would imply $58.166B in revenue this quarter, compared to the $22.78B street consensus estimate.
Admittedly, online sales staying at .59% is unrealistic due to how many consumers would shop online instead of in the store. Here’s some more math to deduce the new percentage:
· In 2018, 0.44% of their sales were online
· When online sales rose 39% in 2019, the proportion went up to 0.59%
· So a 39% increase in online sales led to a 0.15% greater contribution of online sales to total revenue
· Therefore a 220% increase would mean a 0.345% increase in proportion of online sales, putting them at .935% of total sales

!!!!!That gives us $36.704B in revenue for this past quarter vs a consensus of just under $22.78B. A beat by over 60%!!!!!

If you’re one of the rare autists to realize that revenue is only one half of the earnings equation, and your costs are the equally as important second half:
Let’s go back to our friends at JPM, in a recent research note, after mentioning the foot traffic ACI was taking from KR, they also noted that ACI has superior gross margins to KR, as their stores are strategically located further from aggressively low priced competitors such as Aldi and WalMart. Additionally, they praised ACI’s recent cost savings initiatives that have been underway for some time now, and believe they would lead to some of the best margins in the industry.
So you’re telling me ACI is going to make way more money than anyone expects this quarter, while also having lower costs? That must mean call options are crazy expensive, right?? Wrong. The aforementioned option is trading at just $0.50. That means after earnings when the stock rips to $30, they could be worth $11, does a 2,100% return sound good to you too? And for you especially literate autists, the IV is only 91.61%.

ACI 8/21 $20C

Let’s ride this fucker to the moon

Happy to respond to any questions/comments on sources for some of the data I presented or anything else your autistic brain comes up with regarding ACI
submitted by HumanHorseshoe to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

UTZ (CCH), and the case for $18

After seeing a lot of baseless speculation thrown around re: lofty price targets, I figured I'd take a crack at a DD with some real numbers, now that we have 2 Qs of FY20 earnings from the companies that actually have products in the market.
EV losses got you down? Exact your revenge with the mighty potato! (And veggie straws, pretzels, and cheesy poofs and shit). I give you Utz, the largest privately-held snack food company in the US.
For all you nerdy types, here's the P&L update from August 2020 and merger presentation where most of the figures used are from.
Summary (CCH) Last Close: $13.69 (nice) CCH Market Cap: $770 million Shares Outstanding (CCH): 44 million (Remaining Shares are with the founders) Institutional Holdings: 34.2 million shares (77.77%*...whoa) This is the highest inst. holding % I've seen for any SPAC, which is a big + *The Top 10 of 96 institutional holders have ~50% of the 44 million shares Options? Merger Date: By end of Q3 Annualized Dividend: $0.20
Utz Implied Market Cap (CCH is 50% of Utz): $1.55 billion
Meme Power (High)Utz is 100-years old, and the #4 snack food company in the country, with Pepsi, Campbell's, Kellogg's and General Mill's rounding out the top 5. Warren Buffett tried to buy a portion in 2015 with no luck.
Most people, and most importantly boomers, don't even know this shit's going live. What do you think will happen when they see that sexy ass ticker scroll by on the bottom of their screen as they eat their chips/pretzels/cheesy poofs? They'll wanna get a piece of the action of course! People love tickers that match up with company names. Don't believe me? AAPL, AMD, TSLA, JNJ, QCOM, JD, MCD...are you seeing a pattern yet? Okay not saying that this stock will become one of those, but they are some of the most well known stocks because they have easy tickers. Remember what happened to FREE?
FY20 EBITDA target: $124 million EBITDA achieved in Q1/2: $63.3 million (51% to target) YoY Growth Target: 15% Q1 YoY Growth: 39% (!!!) Q2 " ": 15% Assuming only a 10% growth in the next quarter, and a flat Q4, FY20 EBITDA is ~$137 million Bonus: 52-week rolling sales hit $1 billion for the first time on 4/20 (nice)
Competitor Analysis and Projections The industry median for Price to EBITDA multiple is 14.8x, which would give us an implied market cap of $2.03 billion at the end of 2020. The SP would be $17.93.
BuT eBiTdA mUlTiPlEs ArE uSeLeSs! Fine then let's talk P/S motherfucker. The remaining top 5 industry peers and their ratios are: Pepsi: 2.86 Campbell's: 1.90 Kellogg's: 1.78 General Mills: 2.23
Using a conservative ratio of 1.9 gives us a valuation of $1.9 billion (duh) back in April, and a 10% growth quarter since then brings us to $2.1 billion. This gives us an implied stock price of $18.55. If it ever trades at 2.86, we're talking $25 + all those dividends.
What are they doing to improve? Since rona took over, 12-week tracking data showed Utz had a 24% YoY sales growth. Yup, in this economy. Campbell's ($1.25 bn annual sales) was next at 20%, and Kellogg's ($1.1 bn annual sales) lagged at 9%. Utz is ready to pass them both to claim the #2 spot behind PepsiCo.
In 2016, Utz had a 67/33 split in company-owned distribution vs privately-owned Direct-to-Store (DTS) delivery. By end of 2019, it was 23/77 going the other way. By 2021, they'll be entirely DTS, saving tons of $$$ by not operating regional distribution centers and having to pay for storage, labor, transport etc.
To put it simply, your taters (and cheesy poofs) are delivered with higher margin, supreme freshness, and with max tendies for you, loyal call holder.
Chart Action/Voodoo Lines 50-day SMA: $13.77 RSI: 50 (neutral) MACD: 0.08, about to go into the golden cross Pattern Identified: Flag Trendline: Holding bottom trend from July 27th (1 hr chart)
TL;DR: Utz has been CCH-CCH-CCH-CCHugging along, and is ready to go public with a dividend off the hop. Buy shares for a safe play or throw the darts below like a true CHAD for tendies.
Positions Merger Play: 10/16 $15 Calls @ $0.60, or $17.50 calls at $0.25 (lotto) Big Brain Merger Play: 10/16 $12.50/15 Call Spread @ $1 or $12.50/17.50 for $1.50 Intermediate-Term Play: 1/15/21 $12.50/17.50 Call Spread @ $1.55 or $15/20 @ 0.95 Long-Term Play: Just buy shares or warrants
submitted by Liquicity to SPACs [link] [comments]

I bought six PRPL mattresses today. You should buy PRPL too (it's undervalued).

I bought six PRPL mattresses today. You should buy PRPL too (it's undervalued).
tl;dr: Buy PRPL stock, warrants (PRPLW) or calls based upon your preference. They are closing out a killer quarter and are undervalued. PRPL 22.5c 8/21 if you really need a strike.

I decided to appeal to both WSB audiences today with two different types of DD:
  1. A completely irrelevant story with some pictures and a position
  2. Numbers and Other Stuff

I bought six Purple Mattresses today.

Yep. I moved to Utah a few weeks ago (absolutely true) in order to do better DD for you in Purple's hometown (not true at all), so I decided to trek down to the Purple Factory Outlet to scope out the scene.
Purple Factory Outlet in a crappy part of Salt Lake - Sign on the door says \"NO CASH INSIDE\"
Family informed me they were coming to visit in three days (who does that to someone when they just moved!?!). My wife said we needed sleeping arrangements, so I said Purple mattresses.
After speaking with my Mattress Firm friend, he told me that Mattress Firm is entirely out of stock of twin mattresses in the Salt Lake City market (Purple's hometown). Worse, the mattresses aren't coming back as the original (the only mattress to come in twin) is being discontinued.

https://preview.redd.it/qd4u5bo3oy751.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=3417ffb0eca481dbd797b67be2cb9c06c7a58a65
This is a screenshot of an internal Mattress Firm memo on the discontinuance of the Original Purple Mattress (the cheapest one by far) What can I say? He isn't a photographer.
  • The original is going away
  • Floor models are NOT to be sold as they are traffic drivers
https://preview.redd.it/tsevapzpoy751.jpg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=04399eff4e38e98ad17fa55d6db0e511f799bc67
I figured the Purple branded store would have stock, if it existed. And because they are being discontinued, I didn't want to be left short-handed in the future. So, I walked out of the store with six Purple mattresses. And some pillows. And sheets. And mattress protectors. Aaaaaand because I took delivery, it counts towards Q2 revenue (the best part).
For all of those who will inevitably accuse me of pumping the stock, I admit that purchasing six mattresses will pump revenue and therefore pump the stock after earnings. Now, where are all of those people who asked me for a free mattress?

This was a sign.
Most importantly, when I pulled out of the parking lot, a purple Dodge Challenger zoomed right by me. I was barely able to get this zoomed in picture of it. This means PRPL stock is going to zoom up.
PRPL 22.5c 8/21. I bought ten of those contracts today too. It was cheaper than the mattresses.

Numbers and Other Stuff

I put forward that because Purple is a high revenue growth company, the best valuation metrics are revenue multiples (as opposed to EBITDA multiples or P/E ratios). You're welcome to debate this, but frankly, the forward looking EBITDA and Earnings look beautiful as well.
Additionally, I put forward that Enterprise Value / Revenue is superior to Market Cap / Revenue, but I'll let you do that research yourself.
From Yahoo Finance:
Enterprice Value / Revenue
Ticker As of 6/28/20 2020 Q1 2019 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1
PRPL 2.01 2.52 3.94 3.61 3.73 3.09
TPX 1.71 4.84 7.39 7.34 8.07 6.88
SNBR 0.98 2.36 4.40 3.79 4.97 3.78
CSPR 0.53 0.91
Yes, COVID has happened, but unlike TPX, SNBR or Serta Simmons Bedding (which just completed a pseudo-bankruptcy), Purple has actually benefited from COVID and its prospects have never looked better with a shift to higher revenue- and margin-per-unit DTC as well as insatiable demand from its wholesale partners.
PRPL is currently trading well below its own previous EV / Rev multiple range, despite accelerating revenue growth into Q2 with a healthy long-term outlook of holding an increase.
Additionally, PRPL is trading well below the pre-COVID norm for industry EV / Rev mutliples.
What about CSPR? CSPR is a total dumpster fire that is now drowning in IPO lawsuits. Its revenue growth has materially slowed, was awful in April forward looking (15% YoY growth vs 170% for PRPL), on declining margins. The cash burn rate for CSPR was high before COVID. They likely only have a few quarters left to live. I think they are overpriced as a result. CSPR is a bad comp even though there are similarities to the businesses at the 30,000 ft level.

Revenue Growth & Estimates (Q2 Estimates via Yahoo Finance)
Ticker My Estimate Q2 Low-Mid-High Estimates 2020 Q1 2019 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Q1
PRPL 201.7-233.3 170-180.1-186.9 Actuals 122.4 124.3 117.4 103.0 83.6
YoY % 46.3% 58.3% 65.8% 36.0% 37.7%
TPX 613-616.4-626.4 Actuals 822.4 871.3 821.0 722.8 690.9
YoY % 19.0% 32.9% 12.5% 7.9% 6.6%
SNBR 176.8-216.4-281.4 Actuals 472.6 441.2 474.8 356.0 426.4
YoY % 10.8% 7.1% 14.5% 12.6% 9.7%
CSPR 95.8-104.8-113.6 Actuals 113.0 126.9 89.4
YoY % 26.4% 24.3%* 24.3%* 24.3%*
A few items of note here:
  • CSPR disclosed the Last Twelve Months YoY growth as of 3/31 was 24.3% (which sucks for a revenue growth company that is burning cash)
  • PRPL accelerated its growth over the past year. It is massively accelerating again in Q2.
  • PRPL disclosed in an 8k that is has already booked about $145M in revenue for Q2, so the analysts' consensus estimates are WAY under. I gave my math and estimate for Q2 sales here. I still stand by the estimate that PRPL will beat $200M in revenue this quarter, especially since I just bought six mattresses.
  • Now compare the barely double digit growth numbers of TPX & SNBR over the past year to PRPL. Now compare the EV / R multiples. Something is off.
  • PRPL may very well beat SNBR in revenue for Q2 (due to SNBR's high reliance on wholesale sales).

Summary: PRPL's EV / R multiple is under where is should be, even in this market, whether you compare it to its own previous multiples or its competitors before they were affected by COVID. If you look at COVID EV / R multiples, it is in-line with companies who are materially struggling with cash flow and growth... this couldn't be further from the truth. PRPL is undervalued.

Analyst Price Targets

I don't usually give these guys much weight, but for those of you who do:

https://preview.redd.it/h13nnc7zxy751.png?width=531&format=png&auto=webp&s=f36406c5e43cd7e07757ba6459dbff5665b7e525
Marketbeat (and a few others) are inaccurately showing a lower consensus price target because they are using some very old price targets.

https://preview.redd.it/qxgstjh4yy751.png?width=1359&format=png&auto=webp&s=af9d185d18ad3db9c3bc8f44c6acecc729cc6d1a
As you look at the 7 price targets MarketBeat is using to build a consensus price target, two of them are from last year, which is ridiculously old (it's about time you update this Bank of America--you got your underwriting--now do your job). Wedbush was after earnings, but before the recent 8-K on Q2 revenue.
I put forward that the only targets that matter are those that adjusted to the 8-K revenue announcement. The consensus there is $19.75. This only matters if you follow these types of things.

Today's Price Action

I admit that this post would have been more relevant early this morning when I started writing it (the numbers part).
The price spiked late afternoon because of the attention drawn to it by a CNBC interview by CEO Joe Megibow.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/06/29/purple-ceo-on-the-popularity-of-mattresses-as-americans-stay-at-home.html
In the interview, he doesn't share anything really new (for those of us who closely follow), but he does emphasize that PRPL doesn't have a return rate problem, unlike others (*cough* CSPR *cough*).

Q2 EPS / EBITDA Estimates

PRPL has generated $70M in cash during April and May, which is insane for a stock that has generated Adjusted EBITDA in the 6.2-15.3M range over the last four quarters. The quarter isn't even done yet.
I'm not putting an EPS estimate on this because the amazing cash generation is going to be partially offset by a fairly large warrant liability expense adjustment. It will likely be one of the final expense adjustments we see as the secondary offering triggered a strike price drop to zero, which is one of key things the liability expense was modelling. Regardless, warrant liability expense doesn't deserve to be an expense as the warrants themselves are already built into fully diluted EPS, which is what everyone reports. The FASB done messed up on this one.

Technical Astrology & PRPL Patterns

IMO, most technical analysis is confirmation bias at best. Here's some confirmation bias.
https://preview.redd.it/5kviazrs0z751.png?width=1166&format=png&auto=webp&s=56c8daaa52c4af31c66c9821e57e40b9362b1bcd
If you are into this type of thing, PRPL has been a series of Bull Flags since the bottom of COVID. We are now ending our fourth bull flag (which likely ended today). At least this is what stocktwits and a few other areas are raving about.
Intraday Patterns
The intraday patterns are more interesting to me. I've been watching this security fairly closely over the last 3 months since the COVID bottom, and on most days, you'll see a spike in the morning that fades away into the afternoon. It is almost like clockwork and seems to be irrespective of volume.
While I don't trade this pattern because I don't want to exit my long-term capital gains positions yet, some of PRPL gang makes money by buying in the morning (or afternoon before), selling/shorting at the peak, and then closing/buying late afternoon. Good on them!
Also, PRPLW warrants tend to lag the stock on the way up if you want to play that too.

What is your next play after PRPL?

I've already mentioned several times that I will fully exit my warrants (and rotate into some PRPL stock / long dated options) when the stock price reaches about $24. My inbox has been bombarded with questions about what my next play is.

https://preview.redd.it/t56ziwe42z751.png?width=1161&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ccef0051c2f1740d1c8059f1cb2a16188f7435c
The above chart is a comparison between CSPR and PRPL. CSPR, even though it is a total dog, has been riding up with PRPL on sympathy plays. CSPR spikes on PRPL news, conference presentations, and any other movement.
PRPL has reasons to be up. CSPR shouldn't be any higher than where it was after its last earnings release. The only new things that have occurred are dozens of IPO lawsuits.
I'll be shorting CSPR for somewhere between $100k-$500k if I end up exiting my PRPL positions before CSPR earnings and if this stupid pattern holds. It's free money.

Positions

I've got tons of warrants (closing in on $2M worth) and now 10x PRPL 22.5c 8/21.

Do your own due diligence. This is not investment advice of any kind.
submitted by lurkingsince2006 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

WMT vs AMZN?

For Trading JULY 8th
JOLTs 5.4 vs. 5 Million
NVAX gets $1.6B from BARDA
Today’s market got off to a very soft start in the DJIA but not so much in the NASDAQ and S&P-500, with the DJIA starting off -240 and managing a rally only as far as -125 before spending several hours going sideways until the last hour of trading when the NASDAQ and S&P ran out of steam and fell below the close and the selloff resumed. It’s never a good thing when and overbought index makes a new all-time high and then closes down and on the lows. The DJIA was -396.85 (1.51%), NASDAQ -89.76 (.86%), S&P 500 -34.30 (1.08%), the Russell -26.89 (1.86%) and the DJ Transports -108 (1.1%). The internals were 3:1 down on NYSE and 2.5:1 on NASDAQ with volume on the NYSE 2:1 down also. The DJIA was 28 down and only 2 up with WMT the big gainer +55 DP’s and on the downside, BA-62, GS -55, and UNH -43DP’s. Even with the good JOLTs number, this market is just over-extended and tired. The stat I mentioned in tonight’s video about the S&P is very telling, I think, with the S&P only 2% off its high, the median S&P stock is down 11%. This market has simply gotten too narrow and it will correct.
We sold half of the remaining NEM 7/17 $60’s bought @ 1.55 and added to last Friday @ $1.30 for an average of $1.47 triggered a 100% Up Rule sale at $2.94, and today’s sale was @ $3.20. They closed today $3.20. We also own a position in SLV 8/21 17 calls @ $ .74, and they closed $ .75, and we also added a spread using the NEM 8/65 / 70 calls at a $1.30 debit.
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/5afUNy48sFI
Our Discord Forum link is on the video description..
SECTORS: The FAANG names all finished near the lows, several like MSFT coming off a new all-time high and closing down on the day. Not a good sign if they follow-thru to the downside tomorrow. Also having trouble was CCL, who has had to cancel several cruises for Q4 and Q1 2021. It closed $14.57 -1.04 (6.7%). Add to that, the UAL report that it is giving warnings that it will be laying off “10’2 of thousands of employees.” UAL finished $32.55 -2.66 (7.55%). These two companies do not operate in a vacuum, so both groups are in jeopardy, again. Novavax (NVAX) got a $1.6billion grant from BARDA (Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority) to help it along in it’s search for a workable vaccine. The stock, up from $8 as late as the end of February had worked its way up to $85 last month and opened today $104 and traded as high as $111.77 and finished $104.56 +25.12 (31.63%). Don’t get too crazy with this one, this is not its first rodeo. In 2015 it was trading $300 before it had a failure on a different vaccine and the stock fell to $80 before a rally and then in the week of 9/16/2016 it fell further from $169.80 to $23.20 and then on to the adjusted (1:20 reverse) low around $4.00. We’ll hope for a better outcome this time around. Walmart was the big winner on a RECODE that said they are ready to launch Walmart +, to compete with Amazon Prime for same day grocery delivery and next day for other products. Its move today added 55 DP’s to the averages. I don’t think it’s a big deal since for the same money, with Prime you get streaming too. And the margins on groceries are razor thin.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -.67, BGS +.70, FLO -.03, CPB -.11, CAG +.54, MDLZ -.22, KHC +.22, CALM +.03, JJSF -1.43, SAFM +.54, HRL -.14, SJM +.18, PPC -.34, KR -.03, and PBJ $31.56 +.06 (.19%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB - -1.72, ABBV +.72, REGN +14.50, ISRG -9.30, GILD -.13, MYL -.43, TEVA -.29, VRTX +8.35, BHC -.59, INCY +.86, ICPT -.74, LABU +3.36, and IBB $140.15 +.71 (.51%).
CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.13, CGC -.40, CRON -.19, GWPH +2.93, ACB +.17, CURLF -.07, KERN -.62 and MJ $13.08 -.01 (.08%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -8.59, GD -3.29, TXT -1.73, NOC -7.89, BWXT -1.78, TDY – 7.84, RTX -2.12 and ITA $160.32 -6.10 (3.67%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.03, JWN -.58, KSS -.72, DDS -.88, WMT +9.11 (7.66%), TGT -1.40, TJX -1.84, RL -2.49, UAA -.41, LULU -6.66, TPR -.51, CPRI -.18 and XRT $43.78 -.43 (.97%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL -7.40, AMZN -44.69, AAPL +1.06, FB -.91, NFLX +.69, NVDA +3.06, TSLA +9.42, BABA -2.60, BIDU -4.54, CMG -10.92, CAT -2.03, BA -8.57, DIS -.53 and XLK $106.34 -.77 (.72%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS – 7.91, JPM2.52, BAC -.63, MS -1.32, C -1.53, PNC -3.15, AIG -1.36, TRV -2.45, AXP -3.48, V -3.13, and XLF $22.93 -.48 (2.05%).
OIL, $40.62 -.01. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and while we were there, we sold off to close below that number. The stocks were higher with XLE $36.26 -1.19 (3.18%).
GOLD $1,809.80 +16.40. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high OF $1807.70 Last night I said “we’ve moved $50 since the low on Friday and while the trend and momentum are positive, we may have to test 1790 to consolidate our gains.” Unfortunately, we pulled back to 1,767 instead. We rallied a bit and finished only slightly better. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, and additional 50% @ $1.30 on Friday. We sold half on the 100% Up Rule @ $2.94 and half of what was left today @ $3.20, we closed $3.20 + .80 today.
BITCOIN: closed $9,290 -65. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.76 - .19 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

A very detailed DD on $ASRT(Assertio Therapeutics)

What is Assertio Therapeutics? * They are formerly known as Depomed, they have transformed theur company with a current focus on three FDA-approved products in their core areas of neurology, orphan, and specialty medicines as they continue to identify, license, and develop new products that offer enhanced options for patients who may be underserved by existing therapies.
Assertio Pipeline Products * Currently, Assertio had two products that are past P3 of clinical trails and have been Submitted to the FDA for approval, those products are: - Diclofenac Potassium: Mild/moderate acute pain 12-17 years - Long-acting Cosyntropin: Diagnosis of Adrenal Insufficiency
This is very important due to fact that if they are approved, it will provide a huge jump to their stock price/value
Their patented technology * Their patented technology is known as Acuform. It is a patented polymer-based tech designed to optimize drug delivery. * Acuform technology is currently being used in multiple marketed products and being evaluated internally and with other potential partners for many additional compounds. * With Acuform technology, unique swelling polymers allow tablets to be retained in the stomach—the preferential absorption site for many oral drugs—for 8–10 hours vs the 3 hours seen with immediate-release and some extended-release formulations. * This gradual, extended release allows for more drug absorption in the upper GI tract, offering the potential for greater efficacy and increased tolerability, with the convenience of once- or twice-daily dosing. * Tablets utilizing Acuform technology can be tailored to deliver new drug combinations of varying properties, either simultaneously or sequentially, for a wide array of product possibilities * Here is a link for the actual Acuform patent if you're interested in reading it.
Q1 2020 Financials/reports * The first Quarter of 2020 proved to be the beginning of what is set to be an amazing year financial and medically for Assertio Therapeutics. * Their EPS was .10 thus beating set EPS expectations of -.08 by 225% *Their revenue for Q1 was $20.92 Million thus beating set revenue expectations of $11.3 Million by 85.16%
You may wonder how/why their revenue is considered positive despite it being 30M less than the previous quarter. I'll explain why right now * The reason for the revenue being considered positive despite it lower than the previous quarter is due to the fact of the sales of two of their drugs to other companies
Sales of both NUCYNTA &Gralise * Assertio sold NUCYNTA franchise to collegium pharmaceuticals for a total of $375 million dollars in addition, they also paid for inventory relating to NUCYNTA * They sold Gralise to Alvogen for a total of $127.5 Million dollars, plus inventory * Sold both for a combined total of $502.5 Million dollars
Why the sale of two high earning products is amazing & what it sets up for Q2-Q4 of 2020 * With the combined sale of NUCYNTA & Gralise for $502M, Assertio was able to repay their senior debt in full * Repaying their Senior debt in full is amazing because with the sale closing and the accelerated repayment of their senior debt obligations, it allows Assertio Therapeutics the ability to invest in their core business which will help them build and grow for the future. * the Company has also retired substantially all of its outstanding Convertible Notes through $188.0 million of privately negotiated purchase agreements and a tender of an additional $76.7 million. * The sale of NUCYNTA & Gralise sets up the the merger of Assertio Therapeutics with Zyla
The Merger of Zyla into Assertio Therapeutics * Early 2020, Assertio Therapeutics announces the agreement to merge with Zyla Life Sciences to create a synergestic portfolio of Neurology & non-opiod pain products. *The merged company will remain where Assertio is based, in Lake Forrest Illinois. * The merged company will keep Assertio's name and trade on Nasdaq under the ASRT ticker symbol. * Assertio therapeutics will hold 68% ownership & Zyla will hold 32% ownership of the merged company * Under the deal, Zyla stockholders will receive 2.5 common shares of the combined company for each common share of Zyla held. * The Merger is set to close after the shareholders meeting on May 19th
Why the Merger with positively impact share price/company * The merger between the companies Expects to capture significant operating and product portfolio synergies upwards of $40 Million, accelerating revenue growth and creating shareholder value * The combined company will have a leading portfolio of branded non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) commonly used by neurologists, orthopedic surgeons, internists, women’s health providers, podiatrists and pain care specialists * The new company will have the platform, profitability and financial strength to both grow its existing portfolio and acquire additional complementary assets. * Assertio said the combined company has pro forma 2019 net product sales of about $128 million and is expected to have product portfolio synergies of over $40 million. * the Assertio board of directors’ expectation that the combined company will have a stronger financial position than Assertio on a stand-alone basis, with attractive pro forma revenues, 2020 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA margin expected to be greater than 25% and anticipated 2020 debt to EBITDA leverage of two times * the Assertio board of directors’ belief that combining Assertio with Zyla would establish the largest portfolio of branded NSAIDs in the United States, significantly enhancing the competitive position of the combined company by providing increased scale and broader commercial reach, and providing opportunities to expand into new therapeutic areas * Set to increase shareholder's value * Here are links to the SEC filings & their presentations regarding the merger and the benefits of the merger: - Link 1 - Link 2 - Link 3 - Link 4
**One of the best bits of information that came out of Q1 is that with the sale of Gralise & NUCYNTA and the repayment of their senior debt obligations, Assertio Therapeutics are currently on track to having zero debt.
Target Price/Forecasts * The Wallstreet journal sets their Target Price at $1.35 * CNN money sets their target price at $1.35 * Zacks sets ASRT as a strong buy and sets their target price at $1.35 * Finviz sets their target price at $1.35 *Zyla Life sciences currently trades at $2.00 on the OTC Market
Final thoughts & comments * As I always tell you guys, this is just a very detailed post containing as much useful information I could find and write about so you guys can read and make your own well informed decision. At the end of the day, it is upto you if you decide to purchase shares and how much you'll purchase. What I'm doing for you is that I want to give you guys the best knowledge possible before you make your decision.
I hope this post helps you guys out and I hope everyone has a great day & hope you all have been having a good week as well :)
submitted by PradoMV96 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Trade Idea of the Week - 8/17/2020 - Selling Put (Spread) in INTC

Trade Idea of the Week - 8/17/2020 - Selling Put (Spread) in INTC
Betcha can't eat just one. No really, don't eat Intel's chips. They are terrible. Worse than this joke. Back on July 23rd, Intel reported earnings. They beat Wall Street's estimate by $0.12 ($1.23 vs. $1.11). They beat on revenue as well ($19.7B vs $18.55B). Earnings, revenue, net income, etc. all grew nicely from Q2 2020. Intel even provided full year guidance for 2020, again beating Wall Street's estimates. As you'd expect when a stock beats on all fronts AND provides healthy guidance the stock took off ...
6 Month Chart of INTC
That chart isn't upside down, INTC dropped hard after earnings and then fell a bit more. This, by the way, is a great example of why I don't place directional bets going into earnings!
With the stock suddenly a lot cheaper and it has stabilized a bit, we'll look at a trade that assumes it doesn't drop again in the near term:
  • 8/28/2020 expiration, sell the 47.5 put for 0.52 or
  • 8/28/2020 expiration, sell the 47.5/45 put spread for 0.41 or
  • 8/28/2020 expiration, sell the 46.5/45 put spread for 0.20
  • Prices are at the midpoint as of 8/14/2020
  • All trades are for educational purposes and do not constitute financial advice.
Selling the puts outright would result in owning shares at an equivalent of $46.98 if INTC ends below 47.50 on the 28th. The immediate return if the put expires worthless is 1.1% or almost 29% annualized as this is a 2 week trade.
The put spreads cap our downside risk in exchange for just 0.11. If the spread expires worthless, it will be a return of 19.6% on the $209 risked per trade ($41/$209).
To be very clear, this is not a low risk trade. The market is pricing in about a $2.3 move between now and the end of next week. The put and first put spread fall well into that range. If you sell the put, you should be prepared to take delivery of the shares. The strike is set below the low close on 7/31, but nothing says INTC can't go below that value (just go back to March...). I'm OK with adding shares at this level and prefer the higher premium vs. selling a lower strike put.
For a higher probability put spread, one could look at the 46.5/45 put spread for 0.20. A lot less premium, but also less capital at risk, giving us a decent return if it expires worthless of 15.3% ($20/$130). The short strike of this spread is just outside of the expected move between now and expiration.
But what about AMD?
The beginning of this post includes the good news for INTC - the earnings highlight reel if you will. There are issues. Gross margin was down significantly from almost 60% to 53.3%. The other was the news that their latest chips would be delayed by about 6 months. Their main rival, AMD (Ticker: AMD) has already started selling 7-nanometer chips, which means they'll have the market to themselves for even longer until INTC launches their chips. Have you ever considered the distance ('pitch') between adjacent transistors in a chip? If not, maybe this isn't really as big deal. Also important, this news is priced into the stock now and there are no earnings or significant news expected on INTC during the duration of the trade.
AMD is taking market share from INTC and they have room to grow with less than 20% of the desktop share. Take a look at an AMD chart and you'll see the market is encouraged as well. I think AMD is a bit extended currently, but I wouldn't be surprised if I suggested trades in AMD in the future...
Intel's valuation is well below its 5 year averages and it continues to grow revenue and profits. It will figure out 7nm and in the meantime, now is a reasonable time to try and pick up shares or at least profit from its currently depressed price.
submitted by OptionSalary to options [link] [comments]

Very Detailed DD on $ASRT (Assertio Therapeutics)

What is Assertio Therapeutics? * They are formerly known as Depomed, they have transformed theur company with a current focus on three FDA-approved products in their core areas of neurology, orphan, and specialty medicines as they continue to identify, license, and develop new products that offer enhanced options for patients who may be underserved by existing therapies.
Assertio Pipeline Products * Currently, Assertio had two products that are past P3 of clinical trails and have been Submitted to the FDA for approval, those products are: - Diclofenac Potassium: Mild/moderate acute pain 12-17 years - Long-acting Cosyntropin: Diagnosis of Adrenal Insufficiency
This is very important due to fact that if they are approved, it will provide a huge jump to their stock price/value
Their patented technology * Their patented technology is known as Acuform. It is a patented polymer-based tech designed to optimize drug delivery. * Acuform technology is currently being used in multiple marketed products and being evaluated internally and with other potential partners for many additional compounds. * With Acuform technology, unique swelling polymers allow tablets to be retained in the stomach—the preferential absorption site for many oral drugs—for 8–10 hours vs the 3 hours seen with immediate-release and some extended-release formulations. * This gradual, extended release allows for more drug absorption in the upper GI tract, offering the potential for greater efficacy and increased tolerability, with the convenience of once- or twice-daily dosing. * Tablets utilizing Acuform technology can be tailored to deliver new drug combinations of varying properties, either simultaneously or sequentially, for a wide array of product possibilities * Here is a link for the actual Acuform patent if you're interested in reading it.
Q1 2020 Financials/reports * The first Quarter of 2020 proved to be the beginning of what is set to be an amazing year financial and medically for Assertio Therapeutics. * Their EPS was .10 thus beating set EPS expectations of -.08 by 225% *Their revenue for Q1 was $20.92 Million thus beating set revenue expectations of $11.3 Million by 85.16%
You may wonder how/why their revenue is considered positive despite it being 30M less than the previous quarter. I'll explain why right now * The reason for the revenue being considered positive despite it lower than the previous quarter is due to the fact of the sales of two of their drugs to other companies
Sales of both NUCYNTA &Gralise * Assertio sold NUCYNTA franchise to collegium pharmaceuticals for a total of $375 million dollars in addition, they also paid for inventory relating to NUCYNTA * They sold Gralise to Alvogen for a total of $127.5 Million dollars, plus inventory * Sold both for a combined total of $502.5 Million dollars
Why the sale of two high earning products is amazing & what it sets up for Q2-Q4 of 2020 * With the combined sale of NUCYNTA & Gralise for $502M, Assertio was able to repay their senior debt in full * Repaying their Senior debt in full is amazing because with the sale closing and the accelerated repayment of their senior debt obligations, it allows Assertio Therapeutics the ability to invest in their core business which will help them build and grow for the future. * the Company has also retired substantially all of its outstanding Convertible Notes through $188.0 million of privately negotiated purchase agreements and a tender of an additional $76.7 million. * The sale of NUCYNTA & Gralise sets up the the merger of Assertio Therapeutics with Zyla
The Merger of Zyla into Assertio Therapeutics * Early 2020, Assertio Therapeutics announces the agreement to merge with Zyla Life Sciences to create a synergestic portfolio of Neurology & non-opiod pain products. *The merged company will remain where Assertio is based, in Lake Forrest Illinois. * The merged company will keep Assertio's name and trade on Nasdaq under the ASRT ticker symbol. * Assertio therapeutics will hold 68% ownership & Zyla will hold 32% ownership of the merged company * Under the deal, Zyla stockholders will receive 2.5 common shares of the combined company for each common share of Zyla held. * The Merger is set to close after the shareholders meeting on May 19th
Why the Merger with positively impact share price/company * The merger between the companies Expects to capture significant operating and product portfolio synergies upwards of $40 Million, accelerating revenue growth and creating shareholder value * The combined company will have a leading portfolio of branded non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) commonly used by neurologists, orthopedic surgeons, internists, women’s health providers, podiatrists and pain care specialists * The new company will have the platform, profitability and financial strength to both grow its existing portfolio and acquire additional complementary assets. * Assertio said the combined company has pro forma 2019 net product sales of about $128 million and is expected to have product portfolio synergies of over $40 million. * the Assertio board of directors’ expectation that the combined company will have a stronger financial position than Assertio on a stand-alone basis, with attractive pro forma revenues, 2020 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA margin expected to be greater than 25% and anticipated 2020 debt to EBITDA leverage of two times * the Assertio board of directors’ belief that combining Assertio with Zyla would establish the largest portfolio of branded NSAIDs in the United States, significantly enhancing the competitive position of the combined company by providing increased scale and broader commercial reach, and providing opportunities to expand into new therapeutic areas * Set to increase shareholder's value * Here are links to the SEC filings & their presentations regarding the merger and the benefits of the merger: - Link 1 - Link 2 - Link 3 - Link 4
**One of the best bits of information that came out of Q1 is that with the sale of Gralise & NUCYNTA and the repayment of their senior debt obligations, Assertio Therapeutics are currently on track to having zero debt.
Target Price/Forecasts * The Wallstreet journal sets their Target Price at $1.35 * CNN money sets their target price at $1.35 * Zacks sets ASRT as a strong buy and sets their target price at $1.35 * Finviz sets their target price at $1.35 *Zyla Life sciences currently trades at $2.00 on the OTC Market
Final thoughts & comments * As I always tell you guys, this is just a very detailed post containing as much useful information I could find and write about so you guys can read and make your own well informed decision. At the end of the day, it is upto you if you decide to purchase shares and how much you'll purchase. What I'm doing for you is that I want to give you guys the best knowledge possible before you make your decision.
I hope this post helps you guys out and I hope everyone has a great day & hope you all have been having a good week as well :)
submitted by PradoMV96 to RobinHoodPennyStocks [link] [comments]

What you can do this summer (and how covid might impact admissions) - a guide by Novembrr, former Berkeley & UChicago reader

Note: I began writing this guide before George Floyd’s murder. I vacillated for a long time regarding posting this guide, as it feels privileged to worry about gaining acceptance to elite universities when there are disenfranchised groups of people who don’t have the ability to study, work, and live freely. But I ultimately decided to share this with you guys in the hopes that some would find it helpful.
Covid has completely derailed many of your plans; from summer programs being cancelled to research labs closing to internships being nixed, many of you are looking at a long summer with nothing to do.
And that’s okay. Just as universities are trying to give students grace in what they’re able/unable to achieve in a covid-19 world, extend that grace to yourself. People are dying and, tragically, death might hit close to home for some of you. People are losing their jobs and, again, your family might be impacted. It’s estimated that 1 in 5 children are going hungry during this time; you might be more worried about putting food on your table than improving your resume. You might be trapped in an unsafe, unhealthy environment without the support systems you once had. Social distancing and sheltering in place are impacting the emotional wellbeing and mental health of people worldwide. Focus first on what really matters: the mental, emotional, physical, and financial health of you and your loved ones.
But many of you are wondering how covid-19 might impact your college admissions process, and I am, too. Truthfully, no one knows; college administrators are scrambling to make decisions regarding online vs in-person classes this fall, and admissions officers are trying to determine how to make the admissions process simultaneously equitable/accessible and on-par with the academic caliber of previous classes. Lee Coffin, Vice Provost for Enrollment and Dean of Admissions and Financial Aid at Dartmouth College, said in a recent Harvard Graduate School of Education webinar: “Students are coming into next year’s application process with less information than they might have had, [and] different kinds of data points that frame their academic record. We don’t have all the answers today as to what [the college admissions process this fall] might look like.” He went on to add: “As I try to anticipate the [class of] 2025 reading cycle... how do we start to think and reimagine a college assessment if the high schools are largely giving pass/fail grades right now? If that happens to continue into the fall, a transcript as we know it will look really differently... If you combine that with a lack of testing, we’ve removed a lot of data from what would have typically been our assessment.”
Pass/fail vs letter grades
I want to interrupt my train of thought to address whether you should take letter grades or choose pass/fail, if given the option. Multiple students have told me that their GPA and/or class rank hinges on them choosing pass/fail, even though they’ve earned all As this semester. I would not choose pass/fail to game the system; choose pass/fail (if given the option) if your grades were impacted during this turbulent time. If your grades were on par with your past performance, I’d stick to letter grades. Alongside letters of recommendation, counselors are asked to evaluate students on a few criteria, one of which is character. I worry that students’ characters will be called into question, or that a counselor might call you a “grade grubber” in their letter of recommendation. In contrast, they can talk about your ethical decision to take letter grades, and how you seem to truly love learning solely for the sake of learning (not for a grade or an accolade)—a quality, in my experience, that universities love. Alternatively, if your school is mandating that everyone go pass/fail, and you would have earned stellar grades, ask your counselor to address that fact in your letter of rec.
Ok, back to regular programming.
How might colleges evaluate your achievements?
The question on everyone’s mind lately: How will universities evaluate applicants without test scores and with pass/fail grades? Standardized tests were already flawed—they disadvantaged students from marginalized backgrounds, for instance—but universities clung to them as a way to, in their minds, even the playing field. It’s hard to compare students from, say, an under-resourced rural public school in Iowa to an abundantly-resourced private school in Massachusetts, and so universities try to avoid doing so by evaluating students within “context”: the opportunities of their family, school, and community (i.e., if your high school doesn’t offer AP Calculus BC, you won’t be compared to peers in the high school two towns over who all take BC as freshmen; if your family lives in poverty, your achievements might look different than those of a student from an uber-wealthy community; and so on). I believe that grace has to be extended to individuals impacted by covid-19, as well; if circumstances of covid-19 (your illness, a family member’s illness, a parent’s undeunemployment, lack of access to standardized testing, online courses, etc.) impact your achievements, I cannot imagine an admissions office would not extend leniency.
But at the nation’s most selective universities, everyone cannot be given a pass on everything. So I believe now, more than ever, qualitative components of an application may be heavily weighted in the admissions processes of the nation’s most selective universities.
The webinar’s host, Richard Weissbourd, a Harvard senior lecturer and leader of the Turning the Tide national effort to rethink college admissions, added his opinion: “It seems to me that if you are putting less weight on the SAT, then this is a time where you really can pay attention to the social and emotional strengths—like self awareness, social awareness, self regulation, curiosity, empathy—that we know are so strongly predictive of doing well and doing good in college and beyond.”
So where do you show these qualities? In your letters of recommendation, essays, and extracurriculars.
Getting stellar letters of recommendation
I recommend you seek out recommenders ASAP, as they might need even more time than usual to write your recommendations. Dartmouth’s Dean Coffin, in a 2017 alumni magazine article, said: “In combination with the qualitative data, the teacher recommendations that talk about grit and focus, determination and optimism, as well as the student’s own work and the essays—that’s where it all knits together and you say, ‘This is someone who’s primed for success.’” Don’t just have your teachers rehash your resume; what anecdotes can they provide that will offer detailed insight into your best qualities?
Alongside your teacher letter of recommendations in the Common App, teachers are asked to evaluate your:
  • Academic achievements
  • Intellectual promise
  • Quality of writing
  • Creative, original thought
  • Productive class discussion
  • Respect accorded by faculty
  • Disciplined work habits
  • Maturity
  • Motivation
  • Leadership
  • Integrity
  • Reaction to setbacks
  • Concern for others
  • Self confidence
  • Initiative, independence
  • And overall characteristics
Consider subtly addressing some of these qualities in a letter to your recommender. I recommend reading this Reddit post by u/LRFE. One point where we disagree: I don’t recommend you send your resume to your teachers, unless they ask for it; in my experience, resumes are helpful for counselors so they can put all your achievements into context. However, some teachers erroneously spend more time talking about your extracurricular achievements than your personal qualities and performance in class; your resume will be detailed in your activities list and, most likely, your essays. Your objective personal qualities won’t be detailed anywhere, unless your recommenders provide that insight. Instead of saying:
“Marissa is a talented young lady! Not only does she frequently solo on the saxophone in jazz band, but she earned first place at the DECA regionals competition, is captain of the varsity tennis team, volunteers for National Honors Society, and earned silver in the United States of America Computing Olympiad. Quite the busy bee!”
Your teacher could say:
“Marissa is an incredibly introspective and thought-provoking young person. In a class discussion about The Great Gatsby, she challenged her classmates to reflect on their own privilege. She made reference to current events and incorporated books she read in AP US History (The Autobiography of Malcolm X, The Second Sex). What’s more, she artfully mediated what could have been a contentious discussion between her politically-divided classmates.”
Do you see how the latter example would better say to universities “this student is primed for success”? And, remember, you don’t have to hope that your teacher will write with such detail—you can write them a letter and include anecdotes to remind them of your best moments in class.
Doing something impactful this summer
And as for extracurriculars, it would be great to do something this summer. But what? That’s the million dollar question, but you don’t need a million dollars to do something this summer that will be emotionally or intellectually rewarding and beneficial for your college applications (+ success in college).
  • Build a computer
  • Tinker (take apart and rebuild electronics, “hack” electronics to improve them, rig up devices that solve everyday problems, etc.)
  • Draw/create artwork
  • Lead a social justice initiative (rally teens to protest; provide masks, snacks and water to protesters; create a “voices of our community” newsletter to highlight marginalized perspectives; and so much more)
  • Create birdhouses and offer to install them in neighbors’ yards
  • Conduct science experiments (and/or create science kits, record instructions, and share them with kids in your neighborhood)
  • Offer virtual babysitting, tutoring, language teaching, or music lessons
  • Grocery shop/run errands for at-risk members of your community
  • Build an app that solves a need in your community, like alerting SNAP recipients when SNAP-eligible food is in stock at their local grocery store
  • Start a lawn mowing business
  • Run the social media for a small business floundering in this economic environment
  • Create the website or build an online store for a small business that used to sell only in person
  • Translate important public health information, create a database of healthcare/public resources, or offer to virtually translate conversations with doctors for non-native-speaking members of your community
  • Offer your help negotiating smaller fees for services (like internet/tv) for low-income families
  • Fundraise to buy internet/hotspots/computers for low-income students who are otherwise unable to learn online
  • Create fun learning packets for students and drop them off in “subscribers” mailboxes
  • Do a data visualization project on covid-19 for your community
  • Take online courses via Coursera, EdX, MIT OpenCourseWare, Udemy, Udacity, Lynda.com, Khan Academy, etc.
  • Listen to podcasts associated with your intended major, like this one from MIT
  • Foster or transport shelter animals
  • Foster the pets of those who have been hospitalized
  • Walk the pets of those who are at-risk and cannot be out and about in the community
  • Drive people to routine hospital appointments/work/necessary errands who otherwise would be forced to take public transit
  • Create virtual mental health office hours, where classmates can call in or submit anonymous questions, and where you can host weekly guest professionals to answer those questions
  • Start a themed book club with friends (perhaps related to your major)
  • Fundraise to purchase video cameras for NICUs, labor & delivery, and covid-19 wards where loved ones cannot be present in the hospital
  • Ask to help design the online curriculum for a favorite teacher (even better if related to your intended major)
  • Edit the resumes of recently-unemployed community members
  • Write stories, poetry, a news/politics blog
  • Sew masks and distribute to those in need
  • Propose an independent research project and ask a professor to be your mentor
  • And tons of ideas that I haven’t discovered (you guys constantly amaze me with your ingenuity)
So you want to do research…
It was always difficult for high schoolers to earn coveted spots in research labs, and covid-19 offers even more challenges, with the suspension of many labs. Says Polly Fordyce, an assistant professor of bioengineering and genetics at Stanford, covid-19 is “really destructive. Some people were about to do the last experiment they needed for a paper, or an experiment that would have given them months of data to analyze. And now they’re stalled.” Instead, her colleagues are “thinking creatively about existing data sets we can analyze, reading more papers… doing a paper on data that they weren’t going to write up.”
I want you to think just as creatively. Where, in the past, I have helped many of my students gain research internships at highly-selective universities, don’t count on doing so this summer. Instead, consider devising your own research project—like Fordyce said, using existing data sets and papers—and ask a professor, PhD student, or professional to mentor you.
I’m going to give you some ideas on topics you could analyze. I urge you not to run with one of these projects, because who knows how many other kids read this post and likewise pick the same project. Harvard will likely catch on if 500 kids all have the same research project… Instead, find the subject most closely linked to your interest for some inspiration, reflect on your unique interests, and spend a few days harvesting the internet for some ideas. If you’re truly stuck and need some help, reach out for more information regarding how I work 1-on-1 with students.
So without further ado…
Biology/Public Health
  • Cancer (under)diagnosis in queeobese/minority populations (and the healthcare biases that lead to this issue)
  • How cancer diagnoses are impacted by covid-19 (like this, for instance)
  • The cultural norms that support and the efforts to end genital mutilation worldwide
  • The inhalation of Lysol and the spread of misinformation in public health crises (covid-19, AIDS)
  • The effect of Yelp reviews on prospective patients’ selection of healthcare providers
  • Best approaches to treating individuals with memory loss/eating disorders/etc.
  • Pharmaceuticals’ roles in the opioid epidemic
Business/Economics
  • The rise of the female workforce during WWII, and how covid-19 is impacting female workers
  • How businesses’ responses to covid-19 and the Black Lives Matters movement impact their (inter)national reputations
  • The challenges of being male, female, trans, or nonbinary in workplaces dominated by individuals with different gender identities
  • A history of black entrepreneurship
  • Predicted cost impacts of a year without college football for U.S. universities
NOTE: Instead of conducting research, consider pursuing a hands-on project, such as assisting a small business in their social media strategy; starting your own small business or product; or designing a mock product, website, and advertising campaign.
Classics
  • Gender and sexuality in Ancient Rome
  • The use of a particular literary device across an author’s body of work
  • History of disease in Roman antiquity
Computer Science
  • How Bay Area tech giants succeed/fail in hiring and supporting minority engineers
  • The effects of avatars’ identities in video games on players’ personal identities in real life
  • Various approaches to introducing children to computer science
NOTE: You can also use computer science tools to analyze a topic in another field—such as using AI to predict a disease.
Cultural Studies/Ethnic Studies
  • Why Black Americans are dying from covid-19 at greater rates
  • Racial disparity in the rate of police killings
  • The societal stereotyping of ethnic first names
  • The challenges refugees face before, during, and after immigration
  • A specific culture’s identity and representation in film
Data Science
There are tons of opportunities here; pick a project that interests you and analyze the data associated with it. Don’t have any data? Check out these sites or reach out to your local librarian for help. Really dig into the data to pose questions, draw conclusions, and pursue a data visualization project.
Design
  • The challenges of living in high-density housing during social distancing
  • How highways bifurcated white and black America
Education
  • Minorities’ pursuit of STEM majors in predominantly white vs historically black colleges and universities
  • The school-to-prison pipeline
  • Menstruation as a barrier to education in India
  • Sex education’s impact on underage pregnancies
Engineering
NOTE: Consider doing something hands on, like building a drone, robot, or computer; designing a bridge; or building an app or device. Here are some additional ideas from Southern Methodist University and ElProCus. Stanford Alumni Magazine just featured a “multitalented tinkerer”, and you can see some of his projects on [YouTube](alu.ms/akshay).
English Literature
  • Analysis of an author’s use of a literary device across their body of work
  • How spouse/sibling authors draw upon different/similar inspirations (The Brontë Sisters, Simone de Beauvoir and Jean-Paul Sartre, etc.)
  • Analysis of a particular style of writing within books of a certain genre
  • How a book reflects society and beliefs of that time (how slavery is depicted, mental health stigma, etc.)
  • How a book/body of work represents an author’s beliefs (John Milton, John Updike, any other notably-religious Johns?)
  • The representation of a minority group in a genre (i.e., LGBTQ+ within graphic novels)
Environmental Science
  • How murder hornets and other invasive species have impacted indigenous species
  • Differences in the perception of global warming across various societies
  • Modern day impacts of Chernobyl, Fukushima, or other environmental disasters
  • Analysis of climate change policies in the Democratic debates
  • How a Supreme Court decision regarding a natural gas pipeline could impact the Appalachian Trail
Gender Studies
  • Violence against indigenous women and the inadequate response by communities/law enforcement
  • History of achievements of America’s first ladies
  • Gender inequality during stay-at-home orders
  • Overcoming the gender gap in STEM
History
  • The response to the 1918 Spanish Flu and similarities/differences between today’s response to covid-19
  • A history of un- and under-employment in America
  • How businesses pivot during times of crisis (WWII, covid-19, etc.)
NOTE: There are so many cool topics in history! Here’s a good place to start (though this list is U.S.-centric)
Journalism/Media Studies
  • Partisanship in American media organizations
  • Freedom of the press in [insert country of choice here]
  • The rise and fall of the American newspaper
Music
  • Jazz’s influence on community in Harlem
  • Your favorite musical artist’s influence on a genre
  • What various cultures’ earliest musical artifacts showcase about those societies
Philosophy
Find a cool philosophephilosophy and analyze the person/idea within their time period
Political Science/Law
  • The impacts of gerrymandering on marginalized communities
  • The impacts of social media on voter turnout and behaviors
  • The corrupt misuse of NGO funds in Third World Countries
  • A compare and contrast between two leaders’ approaches to international trade
  • Legal precedence foagainst stay-at-home orders, curfews on protestors, etc.
  • Freedom to/freedom from: the different approaches to personal liberties in various democratic societies
Psychology
  • Unemployment’s impact on mental health crises during various economic downturns
  • Mental health risks of social isolation
  • Building empathy across political/racial divides
  • The impact of a belief in fixed vs malleable intelligence on children’s achievements
In order to get a research internship off the ground, you must be willing to put in the time and effort to devise a topic in the first place. This is not the sort of summer activity that is going to be handed to you, but it will be so rewarding to drive the project from start to finish (I promise). And if my promise doesn’t come true and you hit tons of speed bumps, well hey, at least you’ll have a great response to any prompts that ask you to address your greatest challenge. ;)
How to approach mentors
You can either organically devise a project you would love to pursue, or first poke around prospective departments at your dream university to see what they’re doing, before creating a spinoff project from one of their research labs. Either way, do some research into who else in the world is doing similar stuff. Remember, it doesn’t have to be a professor—it could be a principal investigator, PhD student, postdoc, or even someone at a company/non-profit). Find their email and reach out to them, outlining something such as the following:
  • What you love about their work/research (I like to start with sincere flattery)
  • How their work/research relates to your interests/experiences
  • Who you are and what research you are conducting this summer (be specific—not “I plan to conduct economics research this summer. Got any ideas?”)
  • Your first ask: Can they recommend books, data, journal articles, etc. to point you in the right direction? (Again, be specific—“know of any bio journals?” is not going to lead to mentors begging to mentor you)
  • Your second ask: Are they or anyone they know willing to mentor you in pursuing this project? You would love occasional guidance on your sources, data, conclusions, paper, etc.
  • A sincere thanks for their time
Keep it short but detailed! And add a catchy subject line to cut through their inbox.
Remember: They don’t owe you. They might not respond. You shouldn’t pester. You shouldn’t spam (multiple people with the same generic email and especially not multiple people in the same department at the same university). Consider reaching out to one or two people at different universities/companies/non-profits simultaneously; if you don’t get any responses after a week or so, consider tweaking your email and reaching out to one or two more individuals.
Shoot to have one to two mentors, focusing only on those who can help you maximize your learning experience and do good work.
What other questions do you have for how covid-19 might impact admissions? What other ideas do you have for summer activities? Happy to weigh in!
And, as a reminder, don’t stress about college if you have other stressors in your life that need your attention first. I personally realized last year, when facing a family emergency, that you shouldn’t fix your leaky faucet if your house is burning down. Put out the fire first, then turn your attention to college. I’m here for you if you need me!
submitted by novembrr to ApplyingToCollege [link] [comments]

###Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead

Jun. 07, 2020 8:43 AM ET take what you will and tell me what you think, I think they named most of the stocks out there. What are your favorites?

Welcome to Wall Street Brunch, our preview of stock market events for investors to watch during the upcoming week. You can also catch this article a day early by subscribing to the Stocks to Watch account for Saturday morning delivery. Podcast listener? Subscribe now to receive Wall Street Breakfast by 8:00 a.m. every trading day on Seeking Alpha, iTunes, Stitcher and Spotify

Fed Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be in the spotlight next week when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on June 9-10. Powell is expected to face questions on the central bank's role in the economic recovery and what tools are still available to use. "We think right now they’re just trying to get this Main Street lending program to work. The question is are they going to do more things around what they do in terms of forward guidance and next steps of macro easing," previews Bank of America economist Ethan Harris. On the economic front, reports on consumer prices, producer prices and consumer sentiment will be watched closely. The weekly jobless claims numbers due out on June 11 will be crucial for sentiment after May’s employment report showed a surprising record gain of 2.5M jobs. On the corporate side of things, Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) reports earnings with shares sitting near their all-time high and a board battle at GameStop (NYSE:GME) goes to a vote.
Earnings spotlight: REV Group (NYSE:REVG) and Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX) on June 8; Signet Jewelers (NYSE:SIG), AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), Chewy (NYSE:CHWY), Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE) and GameStop on June 9; Guess (NYSE:GES) and Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ:RRGB) on June 10; Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Dave & Buster's Entertainment (NASDAQ:PLAY) and Lululemon on June 11. Go deeper: See Seeking Alpha's complete list of earnings reporters
IPO watch: Online car seller Vroom (VRM) is offering about 18.8M shares in an expected range of $17 to $19. The timing for the IPO is intriguing with the pandemic leading to more online shopping for cars, but sales and margins under pressure. How well the Vroom IPO is received by investors could be of interest to Carvana (NYSE:CVNA), Cars.com (NYSE:CARS), TrueCar (NASDAQ:TRUE), AutoNation (NYSE:AN) and even Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) as the concept of online car shopping heads more mainstream. Vroom is expected to have a market capitalization of around $1.92B if it prices at the higher end of the indicated range. Across the Pacific, Chinese gaming company NetEase (NASDAQ:NTES) is looking to raise $1.2B in a Hong Kong listing to fund strategies for international expansion. Shares are expected to start trading on June 11. Also in the IPO world, the quiet period expires for ADC Therapeutics (NYSE:ADCT) on June 9 and IPO share lockups end on XP (NASDAQ:XP), Bill Holdings (NYSE:BILL), OneConnect Financial (NYSE:OCFT) and Sprout Social (NASDAQ:SPT) later in the week. There are also secondary offering lockup expirations on Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) and BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) to keep an eye on. Go deeper: Catch up on all the latest IPO news.
M&A tidbits: Gaming officials in New Jersey meet to discuss the Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR)-Eldorado Resorts (NASDAQ:ERI) merger. The tender offer on the Menarini Group pickup of Stemline Therapeutics (NASDAQ:STML) is also due to expire. Keep an eye on Western Union (NYSE:WU) and MoneyGram International (NASDAQ:MGI) for reports on if the companies are in talks and expect a little more drama around the Tiffany (NYSE:TIF)-LVMH (OTCPK:LVMHF) merger.
Projected dividend changes (quarterly): W.R. Berkley (NYSE:WRB) to $0.12 from $0.11, Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ:CASY) to $0.34 from $0.32, National Fuel Gas (NYSE:NFG) to $0.445 from $0.435, Realty Income (NYSE:O) to $0.2330 (monthly), Urstadt Biddle (NYSE:UBA) to $0.14 from $0.28.
Spotlight on Snap: Snap (NYSE:SNAP) has its partner summit event scheduled for June 11. The virtual event will feature a keynote address by Snap co-founders Evan Spiegel and Bobby Murphy, as well as talks from other team members from across the company. New product features and partnerships will be announced around Snap's augmented reality offerings and a stripped-down version of its platform that partners can embed in their own apps is expected to be unveiled. Developers are expected to be able to use a toolkit provided by Snap to build a Snapchat-like mini-app right in their own websites. The Snap event takes place with the company under a brighter spotlight for how it curates its promoted content on the Discover page. Heading into the summit, shares of Snap are up more than 50% over the last 90 days.
Airlines: How high can the airline sector fly? After a series of reports on improved bookings trends, airline stocks are showing positive momentum. American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) paced the sector with a 77% gain last week, while Spirit Airlines (NYSE:SAVE) +75%, JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU) +36%, Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) +36%, Hawaiian Holdings (NASDAQ:HA) +34% and SkyWest (NASDAQ:SKYW) +33% also reeled off big gains. Traffic reports for May are due out next week, which could include more market-moving metric updates.
Healthcare watch: At ENDO Online, OPKO Health (NASDAQ:OPK) is due to present data on Somatrogon on June 8 and Neurocrine Biosciences (NASDAQ:NBIX) will present on Crinecerfont. Virtual presentations scheduled for the European Hematology Association conference starting on June 11 include bluebird bio (NASDAQ:BLUE) on LentiGlobin data, Merus (NASDAQ:MRUS) on MCLA-117, Altex Industries (OTCQB:ALTX) on Nomacopan, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) on CTX001, AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) on AZD1222 and Agios Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AGIO) on AG-348.
Analyst meetings and business updates: Equifax (NYSE:EFX) has an investor update scheduled for June 8. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) CEO Bob Swan will talk ESG in a discussion with JUST Capital on June 8 and Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC) has a business update call scheduled for June 9 covering networks and digital services. Avery Dennison (NYSE:AVY) has a conference call scheduled with R.W. Baird on June 9. Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) cloud exec Mike Micucci is participating in the Citi Virtual Software Bus Tour on June 10. Finally, Overstock.com (NASDAQ:OSTK) has an Investor Day scheduled for June 10 and Centene (NYSE:CNC) has a Virtual Investor Day presentation scheduled for June 12.
Conferences rundown: Cowen hosts a conference covering the "New Retail Ecosystem" with virtual presentations from Vince Holdings (NYSE:VNCE), Lands' End (NASDAQ:LE) and Macy's (NYSE:M). Also next week, William Blair has a growth stock conference with online talks by execs from a long list of companies, including Pluralsight (NASDAQ:PS), Appian (NASDAQ:APPN), TransUnion (NYSE:TRU), Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET), CyberArk Software (NASDAQ:CYBR), QAD (NASDAQ:QADA), Talend (NASDAQ:TLND), Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY), SmileDirectClub (NASDAQ:SDC), DocuSign (NASDAQ:DOCU), Chewy (CHWY), Zendesk (NYSE:ZEN) and Varonis Systems (NASDAQ:VRNS). The hodge-podge list of companies due to participate at the Stifel 2020 Virtual Cross Sector Insight Conference include Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), Donaldson (NYSE:DCI), HubSpot (NYSE:HUBS), S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI), Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK), Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM), MasTec (NYSE:MTZ), Lindsay (NYSE:LNN), Dycom Industries (NYSE:DY) and Cronos (NASDAQ:OTC:CRON). Meanwhile, the Deutsche Bank 11th Annual Virtual Global Industrials & Materials Summit 2020 will also run next week with presentations ranging from airline companies, paper producers, construction concerns to home builders. Appearances are expected from MYR Goup (NASDAQ:MYRG), WillScot (NASDAQ:WSC), Berry Global (NYSE:BERY), Builders FirstSource (NASDAQ:BLDR), Cabot Corp. (NYSE:CBT), Canadian Pacific (NYSE:CP), Clearwater (NYSE:CLW), Crown Holdings (NYSE:CCK), AMETEK (NYSE:AME), ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT), Ahland Global (NYSE:ASH), AXTA, Delta Air Lines (DAL), Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW), Fluor (NYSE:FLR), Garrett Motion (NYSE:GTX), Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO), Saia (NASDAQ:SAIA), Silgan Holdings (NASDAQ:SLGN), Sonoco Products (NYSE:SON), Summit Materials (NYSE:SUM), Target Hospitality (NASDAQ:TH), Vulcan Materials (NYSE:VMC), Westlake Chemical (NYSE:WLK), XPO Logistics (NYSE:XPO), Meritor (NYSE:MTOR), nVent Electric (NYSE:NVT), Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU), PPG Industries (NYSE:PPG), PQ Group (NYSE:PQG), REVG, Alcoa (NYSE:AA), Rexnord Corp. (NYSE:RXN), Canadian National (NYSE:CNI), CSX Corporation (NASDAQ:CSX), Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP), Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Honeywell (NYSE:HON), Ball Corporation (NYSE:BLL) and O-I Glass (NYSE:OI).
Eating out: The week ahead will see the eat-at-home vs. restaurants trade be hashed around again. Nielsen data could show a deceleration in the stockpiling benefits for Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB), J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM), B&G Foods (NYSE:BGS), Blue Apron (NYSE:APRN), Hain Celestial (NASDAQ:HAIN) and General Mills (NYSE:GIS) - while restaurant stocks like Cracker Barrel (NASDAQ:CBRL), Denny's (NASDAQ:DENN), Dine Brands Global (NYSE:DIN), Brinker International (NYSE:EAT) and Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) will look to scrap back from their YTD losses with more people eating out.
Notable annual meetings: GameStop may generate the most drama of the annual meetings next week with the company's board up for re-election. Two proxy firms are backing candidates from stakeholders Hestia Capital and Permit Capital for board inclusion, while Michael Burry's Scion Asset management is voting in favor of the board's slate. The annual shareholder meeting arrives with shares of GameStop down 32% YTD. Other annual meetings to watch this week include MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI), SeaWorld Entertainment (NYSE:SEAS), Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK), Target (NYSE:TGT), Wingstop (NASDAQ:WING), TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX), Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) and Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR).
Betting on betting: The brand-new Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (NYSEARCA:BETZ) heads into its first full week of trading just ahead of the re-emergence of major sports in the months ahead. The Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF is designed to offer retail and institutional investors exposure to sports betting and iGaming industries. Holdings include DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG), Flutter Entertainment (OTCPK:PDYPY), Penn National Gaming (NASDAQ:PENN), William Hill (OTCPK:WIMHF), Scientific Games (NASDAQ:SGMS), GAN (NASDAQ:GAN), Churchill Downs (NASDAQ:CHDN) and PointsBet (OTCQX:PBTHF).
Barron's mentions: Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) makes the cover this week with the company in the middle of the political firestorm. For investors, the bigger issue than the culture debate is that the stock is valued at a sales multiple lower than social media peers. Food suppliers Sysco (NYSE:SYY), US Food Holdings (NYSE:USFD) and Performance Food Group (NYSE:PFGC) are recommended with sales volume slowly recovering. The publication notes that large investors like KKR and Trian Fund Management are taking an interest in the sector. There is also a reminder that COVID-19 drug trials are progressing. Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) is testing its antibody in a Phase 1 trial. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN) is also set to begin testing this month, while a collaboration between Vir Biotechnology (NASDAQ:VIR) and GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK) will begin trials later this summer. If the trial results are positive and the pandemic remains intense, emergency authorization of some of the drugs could follow.
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, BioPharmCatalyst, EDGAR
submitted by abiech to Winkerpack [link] [comments]

CoronaHedge #1 — State prices, Nuclear War, and — FROZEN — CONCENTRATE — $OJ

Now sit your butts down Or take a fucking knee U gonna wanna bookmark me!!!
The only thing I ask The 1 thing u must do Make some dough by me? A 😘and 💋 are due!
TLDR: FUCK dudes in the comments, calm down! Long Frozen Concentrate $OJ futures options May 1.10 July 1.20 and 1.30 – $OJ futures are a perfect CV hedge for many reasons and super undervalued.
I. State Prices and Global Thermonuclear War: Or why the market didn't crash until recently
We invest because we believe the future will be different than the present. We believe that some things will be more (or less) valuable in the future than they are today. Our job as investors is, to the best of our ability 1) determine what all the possible futures look like 2) how likely each of them is 3) how valuable the asset of interest is in each possible future and 4) how we should personally discount for the relative risk of each particular asset and each particular future, and for the time value of money (money in the future is worth less to us than money in our pockets right now).
FUCK!!!!!! No wonder we'd rather just P&D Tesla!!!!
Now hold up boys and girls there's something deep hidden in this model. Let's call each possible future world a state and assume just one period of time between the present and the future. We're here in the present state, and there are a number of different future states at some indeterminate time later (doesn't matter for this discussion). Here's the rule: no multiverses! When "the future" arrives, we are in only one particular state out of all the possible states. (Now of course states could share characteristics, but two states that were identical = one state, and one state that exactly shares the characteristics of two other future states A and B is, for this discussion, its own individual state C.)
Got it?
Let's say there are 3 future states of the world 10 years from now:
  1. 30% chance: Super-awesome economic, technological and cultural blossoming!!!! Stocks go WAY up, bonds do nothing.
  2. 50% chance: Malaise where technological growth stops, low economic growth, increasing healthcare costs as people get older (eek! sound familiar?). Stocks go slightly down, bonds go up somewhat but hey we get to clip our coupons each month.
  3. 20% chance: Global thermonuclear war.
In each of these three states, assets have different projected values. The value TODAY of each asset is directly related to both the chances of each of the 3 future states occurring and the projected values of the assets in each of those states, averaged over all possible states by all investors. This is a model of reality that is designed to communicate some important truths. For you fellow finance nerds or lapsed ones like me, you will know where I'm going with this, but state pricing lies at the heart of the Nobel Prize winning Black-Scholes options pricing formula.
Think of the three possible future states above as spots where investors also allocate their money today. Remember, there are only three states of the world—you've got no other choice. For each state, you'll decide how much of your total wealth you want to allocate, and in what particular assets.
For instance—if you believe (1) is more likely, you will be biased to putting more money in stocks today. If you think (2) is going to happen FOR SURE, and you are a huge risk taker, maybe you'll put all of your money in bonds and none in stocks.
What about state (3)? There's a 1% chance of global thermonuclear war. Will you be alive? Will the government be around? Will markets even exist? Will you even be able to collect on your investment?
From The Optimistic Thought Experiment by Peter Thiel (2008):
More generally, apocalyptic thinking appears to have no place in the world of money. For if the doomsday predictions are fulfilled and the world does come to an end, then all the money in the world — even if it be in the form of gold coins or pieces of silver, stored in a locked chest in the most remote corner of the planet — would prove of no value, because there would be nothing left to buy or sell. Apocalyptic investors will miss great opportunities if there is no apocalypse, but ultimately they will end up with nothing when the apocalypse arrives. Heads or tails, they lose.In a narrow sense, it seems rational for investors to remain encamped at the altar of the efficient market — and just tend their own small gardens without wondering about the health of the world. A mutual fund manager might not benefit from reflecting about the danger of thermonuclear war, since in that future world there would be no mutual funds and no mutual fund managers left. Because it is not profitable to think about one ’s death, it is more useful to act as though one will live forever.
Conclusion: There are states of the world which are effectively NOT INVESTABLE AT ALL.
OK Joshua. Now let's say Russia, China, and USA announce initiation of arms control measures, and they are effective! Everyone follows. Instead of 30,000 warheads, 10 countries end up with 3 each. We develop Pooranium-236, an engineered bacteria that converts all fissible uranium into the smoothest, sexiest compost that ever existed. So no more additional nukes ever. AMAZING! Great news!
But what happens to state (3)? If the risk of a civilization destroying global thermonuclear war goes to zero, but in its place we've got a 10% chance of non-extinction nuclear war where 50 medium yield nukes are dropped. Which would be really really bad, but (let's say) not likely to destroy the world or take the economy offline forever...what then?
The number of investable states just went from 2 to 3, and one of them is super bad. In fact, in this state, you just want to be all-in gold, crypto, and farmland. So your portfolio of stocks and bonds would be at most 0, and more likely a short.
CRITICAL INSIGHT: The world just got better, the chance of civilization's sure death went from 20% to 0%, but the markets dumped on the news.
If you substitute the coronavirus for (3), let's think about one of the various scenarios that could describe what happened from the time the virus was discovered:
As an exercise, consider an alternative scenario based on where we are right now, under the assumption that seems to be common that "we will get through this, but it will be tough". What happens if the virus mutates, and it turns out that nope there now is a really big chance we're all gonna be wiped out?
II. State prices
Back to a revision of our original model that doesn't include non-investable states for simplicity. There are three states of the world:
  1. 30% chance: Super-awesome economic, technological and cultural blossoming!!!! Stocks go WAY up, bonds do nothing.
  2. 50% chance: Malaise where technological growth stops, low economic growth, increasing healthcare costs as people get older (eek! sound familiar?). Stocks go slightly down, bonds go up somewhat but hey we get to clip our coupons each month.
  3. 20% chance: Coronavirus that's pretty bad but it is recoverable.
In finance, we assume the presence of a completely risk free asset (US gov't bond). A bond will pay $1 in each of those three states, no matter what (since you know you'll get your money back for sure). Whatever a bond that pays $1 at "the future" time currently costs is how we derive "time value of money" or the risk-free interest rate. For all you linear algebra nerds, think of the payoff vector of a bond in our model as [1,1,1] representing the three states of the world.
Now let's consider the other two other assets in this world. A stock, and (here we go!) ORANGE JUICE. In each state, a stock has a different expected return, because it will be more or less valuable depending on how the future ends up. Same goes for OJ. Let's say a stock trading at $1 today is worth $2 in state (1), $0.80 in (2) and $0.40 in state (3). Now this is very important. Normally if you have 3 future states of the world, each with some chance of occurring and a projected value of an asset in that state, you just take the expected value (including a discount for time, and for the fact that you're taking some risk) and you get a price.
Here we are doing something different. We are taking the prices of the 3 assets today, and under the no-arbitrage condition ("there's no free lunch" = you can't make more money than the risk free rate by taking no risk) trying to find a price we would pay TODAY for $1 in each future state alone. This is called the state price. A decent introduction with the math involved can be found in any finance book (for a real first-principles based textbook by a very clear and well-respected professor, I highly recommend "Investment Science" by Luenberger) or the first part of these lecture notes.
We won't go through the math involved, but the point to remember is that if you add up the state prices of each state (represented by the payoff vectors [1 0 0], [0 1 0], [0 0 1]), you get the price of the bond because you are guaranteed to have $1 in the future. And, to restate the last paragraph, if you add up the state price * the payoff of each asset in each state, summed over all the states, you get the current price of the asset.
So let's take the state prices as given and think about what happens when "things change".
Let's say the state prices we have derived are:
  1. $0.20
  2. $0.60
  3. $0.10
(Remember, it has to add up to the price of a bond, which will be less than $1 if the bond pays $1 guaranteed in the future).
What happens to the state price of (3) when the chance of it occurring goes from 20% to 90% and it is still investable. Remember, all you are trying to figure out is how much you would pay for $1 in that state, today.
It has to go up, and the state prices of the other two states have to go down, because they MUST sum to the price of the bond.
**(**Why does it have to go up? Think about it in the limit. Let's say it goes to 99%. There is a 99% chance state (3) will occur. How much do you pay for $1 in that state if it is a near certainty? A lot more than you would if the state had a 20% chance of occurring—no matter what that state looks like, as long as it is investible. In fact, you might even pay ABOVE $1 in certain cases, because depending on the alternatives, you think you can pick up assets on the cheap and so $1 in that state is lots more valuable on a relative basis than in other states.)
And since the price of any asset must equal the state prices x the value of the payoff in each state, the asset prices must change, in ways that depend on their relative values and (CRITICAL INSIGHT) how their payoffs in each state were impacted by the same change in the world that changed the chance of state (3) being the real future.
III. The hedge: "20 Questions" for discussion
  1. When people walk into the grocery store and are sick, or they are scared about getting sick and want to build up their immunity, which fruits and vegetables become, on the margin, more likely to catch their eye?
  2. How often (when was the last time?) and how frequently do you personally buy frozen orange juice in a can or the OJ (from concentrate) in a bottle/carton? What about the rest of the country? What implications does that have given your answer to Q1 for baseline demand in states (1) and (2) vs state (3).
  3. How attractive is concentrate vs fresh in times of supply chain disruption?
  4. How much of the total retail cost of OJ would you estimate the raw concentrate represents? What does that imply about the relationship between the price change at the producer level and the price change at consumer level and its effect on consumer demand?
  5. What sort of juices do they serve in hospitals and what is the relative distribution between fresh and concentrate? When someone is in the hospital for 2 weeks, how does their juice consumption change vs if they were at home for 2 weeks?
  6. What percent of the FCOJ supply is grown in Brazil? How does that geographic concentration compare to other tradable commodities? What is your assessment of the US-Brazil shipping supply chain in all (3) of the states?
  7. Where does one take delivery of a purchase made via futures contract? What does that imply if supply cannot suddenly reach those locations?
  8. What sort of functions characterize the parameters and scenarios above (in a "hand-wavey") and the relationships between them. E.g.: Is Brazilian transportation cost/breakdown a linear function of the different states? Of the price? A linear function between the changes in state (3) probability? What does the demand curve for FROZEN OJ look like in relation to the availability of fresh citrus or fresh squeezed juice? Etc.
  9. Does citrus have other beneficial compounds besides Vitamin C that may affect immunity? How many people know this right now, and how might that change?
  10. If the same thing that increases the CHANCE of (3) occurring (which also increases the state price) ALSO increases the projected value of OJ in that state INDEPENDENTLY, what implications does this have for the current price of OJ given the above discussion?
  11. What classes of functions might characterize price given your answer to Q8 and Q10? How does that compare to the types of functions that characterize price in states (1) and (2)? Why?
  12. If the functions that characterize price dynamics are different in each state, how would realized price charts look under those different classes of functions? What about the technicals and current volatility when state probabilities and payoffs change in response to new information?
  13. What is the definition of a "hedge" in light of the state price model and your answers to the questions above? What makes one hedge more attractive relative to another hedge? Does it matter if they need be explicitly hedging the exact same realized outcome, in the exact same way?
  14. Describe the FCOJ futures market and compare it in terms of size, volume, gross value, players. What implications does this have for marginal demand on the supply side and on the demand side? From producers, bottlers, speculators, and market makers?
  15. Define "volatility regime" and "phase change" in your own words, as it might relate to the discussion above and your answers to the questions above?
  16. What does the chart of FCOJ futures prices look like? What do you expect it to look like given the discussion above? Given your answers to Q8, Q10-11, Q15?
  17. What does the implied volatility of the options on OJ futures look like given your answer to Q16? "Compared to what?"
  18. How much activity/discussion is there of OJ futures online?
  19. Restate the argument being attempted in this post in your own words. How confident are you in the validity of this argument? How frequently have you seen posts like this show up on wsb? What might my motivation be?
  20. If all of the above is true, and the implications are extremely positive for the price of FCOJ, then why hasn't the price of FCOJ futures yet reflected that? What about the futures options?
submitted by _KissMeThruThePhone_ to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

$AMZN - Why Amazon Is Going to Dominate the Next Decade

$AMZN - Why Amazon Is Going to Dominate the Next Decade
EDIT: TLDR - Buy AMZN get Tendies - See comments for Trash Talk - Thanks for the Silver!
EDIT 2: Thank you u/Dmillehe spending his money on Platinum instead of AMZN stock. You're the real autist.
Amazon is going to dominate the next decade. It's a wonderful business trading at a discount to it's true ability to create cash earnings. My thesis is that traditional methods of valuation that work for most companies don't work for Amazon. This misunderstanding between market 'conservatives' or 'traditionalists' .. so called value oriented investors (of which I consider myself a part) is currently reflected in the share price today, and it's a mistake. Second, the firm has reached a point of inflection, where scale will now provide growth of earnings far in excess of growth in sales. This multiyear catalyst provides a fundamental basis for significant share price appreciation.
To understand why Amazon presents such a compelling investment opportunity, one must understand what is currently transpiring in two specific and unique business segments. E-commerce and Cloud Computing. Many of you are probably familiar with at least the former. The latter is foreign territory to most.
E-Commerce: Why Amazon is prepared to conquer the next decade in retail.
Traditional retail or brick and mortar (B&M from here on out) is still the dominant form of consumer spending in the U.S. and will be for some time. As of Q3 2019, total retail spend amounts to $5.4 Trillion dollar for the prior 12 months. E-commerce amounts to merely 11.2% of this amount (on a run rate basis.) While the size remains relatively small, e-commerce is growing in the mid-teens year over year, or now 5% quarter to quarter and the rate of growth is accelerating. The rate of E-commerce growth has doubled in 12 months.
To understand why this is the case, a qualitative evaluation of the differences between the two is critical. B&M requires physical space that is expensive to build and maintain. It requires uniformed, reliable, friendly and knowledgeable staff. It requires the deliberate presentation of inventory and restocking, amounting to a unique challenge to the retailer of determining layout of shelf space, product mix and promotion.
It's costly for the consumer too. They have to drive there, walk in, and find what they are looking for. This requires owning a car or putting up with public transportation. This can take a significant amount of time. There are some hidden costs too, without E-commerce, price discovery is a pain in the ass. Something retailers are keenly aware of. Here's something interesting about humans and economics. In economics, for a long time, we've modeled humans like they're these perfect rational beings. Ideally.. they'll drive down the road to a different store to get 3% off of whatever they're buying. Ideally. And you will do that for a car. But in reality, if it's 3% off a bag of chips, it's not worth the hassle. It's too expensive to go get $.14 of savings when you have to drive another 10 minutes to another grocery, walk in to figure it out if you're actually saving the most money.. consumers don't do that.
Consumers don't engage in price discovery on most of their small dollar purchases, they don't do that with traditional retail, because it's too costly in time and effort. There's too much friction in the trade-off.
The value proposition of E-commerce is that it saves consumers time and money. Getting in the car, loading the kids in the back, driving, parking, and then hunting for what you want, making sure you are getting a fair price, E-commerce throws all of that out the window. The value proposition for retailers too, is that it saves them time and money. There are plenty of retailers currently taking an omni-channel approach to retail, those who want to shop in person get to, those who shop online can do that too.. everybody wins. E-commerce takes the friction out of price discovery on small dollar purchases.
Given the advent of mobile computing more than a decade ago, many big box retailers also adopted a price match strategy, if you can find it online for the same price? Best Buy, Micro Center etc. they'll match it to keep you as a customer. But that's the extent of it, try going to Kroger and arguing with the cashier about Albersons having a 3/$5 deal on Frito Lay Potato Chips.. that ain't happening.
Amazon isn't Ecommerce, they are a part of it. Their strategy is different than the whole. They are technically omni-channel. However the little B&M they've done mostly as R&D experiment, more on Whole Foods in a minute. The Amazon E-Commerce thesis is this: At the end of the day, most consumer purchases are commodity purchases. They are small dollar items that are easily replicated. This segment of retail has yet to be disrupted by E-Commerce until now. It overlaps with specialty retail and big box items almost seamlessly from a logistical standpoint. The revenue streams are more stable than specialty retail, and it presents a massive opportunity in the long run.
I had the chance to speak with a finance manager at Frito-Lay (subsidiary of PepsiCo) years back after Amazon bought Whole Foods. Amazon had been attempting for years to get the same products you see in any Kroger or Albertsons onto their platform. For a variety of reasons, PepsiCo would not play ball with Amazon. It amounted to channel conflicts between the big established players vs. the disruptive incumbent. What Pepsico had done to Amazon, had been done by Proctor and Gamble, Nestle, Kellogg, and many more.
The purchase of Whole Foods was a big F U, a "we'll do it live" moment.. a Leeroy Jenkins. So you won't let us into your club? Fine, we'll do it ourselves. Grocer's panicked and for good reason. They were the reason Amazon had been held at bay for so long. They'd used their absolute size for many years to prevent E-commerce retailers from getting the same product mix at the same price online. Amazon responded by entering their territory, in buying a physical grocery chain. Grocer's fear was real and warranted, however the truly brilliant component of this purchase was that Amazon purchased for themselves a supply chain for grocery and private label products (365 brand.) Fast forward a couple years and Amazon now has over four hundred private label brands, more than twenty three thousand individual SKUs and 1.4 Million reviews of these products/brands. That entire article is worth a thorough read. Each product line represents a moonshot where amazon can collect both sides of margin on a private label product that disrupts traditional brands. Often it goes well, sometimes it does not, but the platform allows them to poke holes in each product category, and cannibalize the producer surplus of other more expensive branded product in the process. They don't have to advertise, market or promote any of this either.. yet it's already getting plenty of attention.
Here is a compelling example of how Amazon can undercut a premium brand with it's store brand knock off. And there's nothing Allbirds can do about it.
Amazon has built out an infrastructure of warehouses (which are relatively cheaper to maintain on a $/sf basis than traditional B&M retail space) and delivery drivers to meet the daily needs of consumers accustomed to B&M retail. They've disinter-mediated the entire process. You do not need a car, you don't have to be nice to the person behind the counter, or go hunting for that specific product you need on aisle 9, or check to see if the price is competitive or on deal. You can just type it in to your phone in 5 seconds, and see quickly who has the best deal. Turns out (and this is from experience) 9/10 times Amazon has the best deal and they'll ship it that day or the next.
For the consumer, it amounts to savings in both time and money. What the data shows is that we are experiencing rapid change in slow motion. E-commerce is growing explosively here in the U.S. however it's still of relatively small scale, that it will take some time before eclipsing B&M retail. Second, the data shows this rate of growth is accelerating, and has doubled in the last year or so. Traditional retail is not going to disappear entirely either. There are plenty of Amazon proof businesses for now. Hair salons, vets, dentists, nail salons, along with restaurants and apparel to a certain extent.
This online E-commerce platform has allowed Amazon to build out a peripheral advertising business in search. The search component allows Amazon to promote it's own store brand product alongside the branded counterparts. Second, it's able to sell web page space to branded products. Google currently dominates the search game, but Amazon is in 2nd place and stealing market share.
Finally, Amazon has rolled out a wonderful product called Subscribe and Save. Within this platform, Amazon is able to offer 15%-20% savings on everyday commodity items in exchange for a commitment to purchase at a monthly frequency (and it can be cancelled at any time.) What Amazon has discovered is that subscription purchases are relatively sticky. In exchange for a soft commitment from consumers that is relatively stable and predictable, Amazon can actually lower the cost of goods to the consumer. In turn, they are also able to optimize logistically for these sales as they can plan far in advance for them. Second, this allows them to relay demand information to other merchants as well. Example: Amazon can remit data to Tide, and let them know how many pods they expect to need in the coming months based on subscription commitments. Both Tide and Amazon are able to lower CoGS because they have more time to plan for those costs.
Furthermore, if you have an Amazon Credit Card through Chase bank, you get an additional 3%-5% all purchase at Amazon & Whole Foods.
The combination of all of these benefits as a platform amounts is an incredibly compelling value proposition to consumers. As of June this year Amazon has accumulated 105 Million Prime Memberships in the United States, and it is the largest paid subscriber base of any company in the United States period.
One of the luxuries I enjoy in my occupation is that my employer has a very long investment time horizon & high risk tolerance. What this allows is for us to kick back, put our feet on the table and think about what the world will look like in 10 years and how we'd consider being a part of it.
So here's a thought experiment, what do you think the retail experience for consumers looks like in a decade? Here's my prediction. Consumer's buy the vast majority of the things they need online, and they receive it within a few hours to a day, and they're spending less than ever before on what they need. This is already happening, and It's grabbed the attention of people like Jim Cramer, as well as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Albeit, E-Commerce is relatively small for now, but the rapid transformation is already causing ripple effects across retail. In 10 years, my thesis is that E-commerce becomes the largest component of total retail sales and Amazon remains the largest component of that segment, as it is today. Additionally, they probably steal share and grow at a faster pace than E-commerce as a whole, as they have done over the last several years.
Personal anecdote:
I'm sitting here in my home office wearing Amazon branded Jeans. I've got 10+ Amazon branded undershirts upstairs, along with 5+ pairs of Amazon Synthetic Golf Shorts. In my house, we've got Amazon branded batteries, note cards & printer paper, detergent pods, echo devices, cameras and more all over the place. There's more too, but I'm not going to list it all. In my experience, what they make is just as good if not better than the branded counterpart, and they do it for less, often a lot less. And I got tired of hyperlinking, so if you're curious, go to amazon.com and start looking around for these products.
Even more, as of now my wife and I spend +$250/mo on subscribe and save items we need for our household, this includes baby formula, diapers and wipes, detergent, shampoo and soap, trash bags, dog food, paper towels and more. We use the 5% back credit card and blended save close to 20% on these daily items we need.
In conclusion, on E-Commerce, I expect Amazon to dominate the next decade in retail. They have a massive competitive advantage over other retailers engaged in an omni-channel strategy, therefore it's their game to lose. Furthermore, their competitive edge today will compound into the future and amount to further share gains and a wider moat in years to come.
Cloud Computing: What is this industry, how does Amazon fit in the picture, and why is it such a big deal?
Again, to understand Amazon you'll have to understand what Cloud Computing is. This is not an everyday consumer product/service, therefore it's foreign to most individuals. Second, because the transactions and services are business to business (B2B) it's relatively difficult to determine detailed industry characteristics. What may come as a surprise to you, is it's the most profitable business segment (on a NOPAT basis) and it's also their fastest growing segment.
Cloud computing is the service of providing storage, services, databases, software, security, analytics, artificial intelligence and infrastructure through the internet. There was a time when most businesses built their own server racks, and maintained their own infrastructure. Amazon too did this for themselves in building out their own infrastructure to maintain their E-Commerce platform. In time, they naturally sold this service to other firms.
So where does Amazon fit in now? From all indications cloud computing appears to be an arms race. The most recent estimates for market share vary depending on the research provider. The differences lie in what is being measured. There are multiple components of Cloud: PaaS, IaaS, and SaaS. By all accounts, Amazon Web Services is the clear market leader, but they aren't growing as fast as some of their well funded peers like Microsoft and Google.
The available literature on Cloud Computing as a whole is vague. There are important questions to answer regarding structural advantage or lack thereof, who has the competitive edge, or what kind of moats have been built. Amazon's slowing growth rate in Cloud is concerning. Ramped spend in R&D + SG&A during the 2019 fiscal year is encouraging, and these investments will reduce erosion of market share.
While Cloud remains Amazon's most profitable business segment for now, by revenue it's just ~12.5% of sales. Admittedly I am troubled by the amount of information I cannot obtain without significantly paying out of pocket. Nevertheless, given the relative size of this business, I'm comfortable putting the pencil down on AWS for now, and watching the industry closely going forward.
Other Business Segments:
Amazon has other business segments like their own B&M retail stores including Whole Foods, it's 4 star retail chain as well as it's cashierless Amazon Go stores. All of these combined are worth little compared to the market cap, while interesting.. they are insignificant in determining Amazon's value as a business.
What is Amazon worth today?
Herein lies the problem for analysts when the look at Amazon. The most commonly used methods for determining value are off the charts, for the most part Amazon looks like lighting money on fire.

https://preview.redd.it/7iq4kk8hesa41.png?width=1703&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7b8a9fb6090406db8e0ddd51e9e776062b646cd
A simple value oriented investor looks at a trailing P/E of 84.19 and thinks why would I wait 84 years to get paid back?

https://preview.redd.it/d76fratiesa41.png?width=1689&format=png&auto=webp&s=0cc4e3e57054f658a33a7173084e1a5338da1997
Of course, that's too myopic, and value oriented investors who take that approach, quickly learn trailing P/E is the key to building a portfolio of value traps. More sophisticated investors like Joel Greenblatt might recommend using something like ROIC to gauge how much Amazon benefits from reinvesting and building out it's own business.
The problem with that approach is that ROC, ROCE, and ROIC all use some form of GAAP earnings (either NOPAT or EBIT) to backsolve for this return number. If you look at Amazon's Income Statement, and dissect why net income is what it is there's a good reason why most value metrics/ratios don't work for Amazon. They are investing ~3x NOPAT and 60% of Gross profit into R&D. SG&A tells a similar story. What is R&D anyways? One time costs to develop and build out a business. What is SG&A, variable manpower with a significantly lagged ROI when ramped more than 20% YoY.

https://preview.redd.it/15v33d1lesa41.png?width=890&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4562988962ffc48d858a24b2a190b4db65f4c3d
What dawned on me months ago is this.. what if Amazon cut it's R&D to 0, and didn't touch SG&A? P/E TTM drops to ~20x. What happens to sales growth then? It slows.. and eventually converges with GDP, and then falls beyond that. The story of what Amazon's business is, especially E-Commerce, helps shed light on how long it'd take for Amazon's growth to converge with GDP, when they're on the cutting edge of the knife, and most other competitors remain far behind.
What do other institutions believe Amazon is worth?
https://preview.redd.it/wuzx3n6nesa41.png?width=482&format=png&auto=webp&s=959d83285bb9f67715415a9011802e6039d72d2d
There are 45 Wallstreet Analysts covering the stock. On average, their price target is 2170. Based on the share price today, if they're right, you can expect a 15% return. What if the bears are right? You'll lose ~2% rounding down. And the bulls? the highest estimate is 2550, and represents a 35% premium on the stock.
Here's what Morningstar thinks:

https://preview.redd.it/capam6koesa41.png?width=598&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2ae1e2e6b91882f60c01dec9cb983c8439ccfa8
Keep in mind, the last price is a bit dated. Let's pretend Morningstar is right, I like them more than most analysts. You can expect a 22% return.
I don't like wall street analysts, if I did, I wouldn't do this, and I'd just follow their guidance. They are often right, but can be very wrong at times. The problem with wall street analysts is that they are subject to herding, as well as many other behavioral biases and sometimes conflicts of interest.
But assuming they're right, this is an asymmetric long to take, with significant upside today.
I have an estimate for fair value as well. This involves taking the current growth rate for amazon as well as the mean estimate of earnings two years out. However, instead of earnings, I like mean cash flow per share, because it remains undistorted by GAAP adjustments.
Here are the current cash flow per share estimates:

https://preview.redd.it/9e4sgdmqesa41.png?width=773&format=png&auto=webp&s=d878cacc7620af283233c63ab493c6500b55ba0c
Here is my valuation model:

https://preview.redd.it/3pqriw0sesa41.png?width=1694&format=png&auto=webp&s=16810d9c5ad87ca7b10b01ae3cb590e774f28340
Bottom left in yellow: that is the implied value of AMZN shares today, based on the discounted free cash flows.
Bottom middle with a red circle around it, those are my assumptions for long term growth rate and EPS 2 years out.. so TTM 2021 cash flows.
This would imply a 63% upside on the share price today.
Now, I don't think anyone is getting 63% today, for AMZN shares. Admittedly I'd be surprised if you got ~$3100 for AMZN shares in a year. Unfortunately.. this business will probably continue to be misunderstood like it has been for many years until they're done reinvesting a significant portion of their gross profit into building the infrastructure that expands their business. However, that cash flow number will become remarkably close to EPS with R&D turned off. When it does, share price will rocket. Instead of this becoming a one time event, I expect convergence will be gradual over time, which makes it a long term hold.
More on valuation:
I was disappointed but not surprised to find I'm not the only one thinking about valuation in this way. The authors take is similar to mine, and he comes to a similar conclusion as well: ~20x P/E TTM. I've gone through everything the VIC has to say about AMZN and most everything should be available to you as non-members as it is dated. I found message 109 especially compelling:

https://preview.redd.it/g91fx2ptesa41.png?width=1221&format=png&auto=webp&s=4edce5cbfdb19ae88045ad45b574ee1d7ff60694
In Conclusion: I recommend Amazon stock as a long term investment. I believe this is one of the best value propositions available in this market. Regardless of the broader stock market, the secular trends within retail are significant tailwinds to Amazons largest business segment.
Disclaimer: This document is entirely my own work, outside of linked/pictured information above which has been cited. I own a significant amount of AMZN stock personally. I am not responsible for your gains or losses. I may add more information to this document in the future.
Addendum (1/14/20): The most significant risk to this business is political. The election of either Warren or Sanders in November of this year would most certainly affect valuation for this business in the near term. Whether Amazon is actually harmed by political interference is another story. For now, it appears the odds that either of these candidates receives the nomination is significantly below 50%, furthermore, as of now it appears they would be significantly disadvantaged against the orange man. Consider this tail risk.
submitted by soundofreedom to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Due Diligence Daily - From Shevla

Good Morning Gang love the changes that are going on here and the direction this server's leadership are taking.
I hear you've missed me.
[12:28] Shevla: Gilead (GILD)
S.Korea approves import of anti-viral drug remdesivir for coronavirus treatment.
On Monday, Gilead reported the drug provided a modest benefit in patients with moderate COVID-19 given a five-day course of the treatment, while those who received the medicine for 10 days in the study did not fare as well.(edited)
[12:30] Shevla: Boeing (BA)
TUI Group , Europe's biggest travel company, said it had struck a deal with aircraft maker Boeing for compensation and slower delivery of the 737 MAX plane, helping its finances during the coronavirus pandemic.
[12:33] Shevla: DASAN Zhone Technologies (DZSI)
Co announce a new three-year, $66 million contract to supply LG U+ with Fiber-to-the-Home solutions and switches, including co-development of ultra-low latency 100 Gbps mobile backhaul switches for 5G mobile services. Starting June 1, 2020, this contract secures the position of DZS as a strategic supplier to LG U+ and provides the opportunity to continue to develop new business with them in the future.
[12:35] Shevla: RenaissanceRe (RNR)
Prices offering of 5,500,000 of common shares at $166.00 per share
You'll see negative movement here as the price moves from the current price at $173.53 down toward the value of the offering
[12:36] Shevla: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
Prices offering of 5,479,453 shares of its common stock at $18.25 per share
You'll see negative movement here as the price moves from the current price at $ 20.26 down toward the value of the offering
[12:39] Shevla: OraSure (OSUR)
Prices offering of 8,000,000 shares of its common stock at $11.00 per share
You'll see negative movement here as the price moves from the current price at $12.11 down toward the value of the offering
[12:40] Shevla: Evofem Biosciences (EVFM)
Prices offering of 28,500,000 shares of its common stock at $3.50 per share
Current price at $4.66
[12:41] Shevla: Splunk (SPLK)
Prices offering of $1.1 billion of 1.125% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027
[12:42] Shevla: The Carlyle Group (CG) and T&D Holdings also (AIG)
Announced that they have completed their acquisition of a 76.6% interest in Fortitude Group Holdings, whose group companies include Fortitude Re, from American International Group AIG). The transaction, which was first announced in November 2019, closed following receipt of required regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions. At closing, AIG received approximately $2.2 billion in sale proceeds, including the purchase price of $1.8 billion along with additional consideration paid in accordance with the terms of the purchase agreement.
[12:42] Shevla: OIL
Patterson-UTI
Reports May metrics - average of 80 drilling rigs operating
[12:43] Shevla: B&G Foods (BGS)
Reports May net sales +50.5% yyr to $160.1 mln; sees Q2 revs above consensus
Co issues upside guidance for Q2 (Jun), sees Q2 (Jun) revs of $510-525 mln vs. $483.47 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
The ultimate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Company's business will depend on many factors, including, among others, the duration of social distancing and stay-at-home mandates, the pace and success of measures to ease social distancing and stay-at-home mandates, whether a second or third wave of COVID-19 will affect the United States and the rest of North America, the Company's ability to continue to operate its manufacturing facilities and maintain its supply chain without material disruption, the timing and amount of incremental costs relating to COVID-19, and the extent to which macroeconomic conditions resulting from the pandemic and the pace of the subsequent recovery may impact consumer eating habits.
[12:43] Shevla: Regis Corporation (RGS)
Announced it is working with infectious disease specialists at the University of Minnesota to assure the health and safety of their customers and stylists is at the forefront of their salon reopening plans. They provided recommendations on the proper personal protective equipment (PPE) and additional safety measures that have been communicated throughout the Company's entire salon system to help educate and prepare the Company's franchise partners and stylists for operating salons in a safe manner in a COVID-19 environment. Franchised and company-owned salons have incorporated these recommendations, along with any state specific guidelines, into the relaunch of salons and continuing operations.
[12:44] Shevla: Braskem SA (BAK)
2 hours ago
In the quarter, the Company reported a net loss of R$3,649 million, mainly due to the exchange variation impact on the financial result given the effects from the Brazilian reais depreciation against the U.S. dollar on the net exposure in the amount of US$2,427 million and the Mexican peso depreciation against the U.S. dollar on the outstanding balance of the loan of Braskem Idesa of US$2,255 million as of March 31, 2020.
[12:45] Shevla: United Airlines (UAL)
Confirmed executive changes
On May 27, 2020, the co announced that Jonathan Roitman, who was serving as the Senior Vice President Airport and Network Operations of United, was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Operations Officer of the Company effective June 1, 2020. Mr. Roitman will report to J. Scott Kirby, Chief Executive Officer of the Company. Mr. Roitman, age 54, served as Senior Vice President Airport and Network Operations of United from November 2019 to May 2020. From August 2018 to November 2019, Mr. Roitman served as Senior Vice President Airport and Catering Operations, and from January 2015 to August 2018, he served as Senior Vice President Airport Operations, of United. From December 1997 through January 2015, Mr. Roitman held positions of increasing responsibility at United and, prior to the Company's merger with Continental Airlines, Inc. ("Continental"), Continental, including as Senior Vice President Operations and Cargo, Vice President, Newark Hub, and Vice President, Cleveland Hub. Prior to joining Continental in December 1997, Mr. Roitman was the manager of business development for BWAB Incorporated, a real estate development and oil and gas production firm, and served in the U.S. Army.
At this time, any compensation adjustments in connection with this appointment have not been determined. The Company will file an amendment to this Current Report on Form 8-K disclosing any compensation adjustments made in connection with Mr. Roitman's appointment if and when they have been determined. Gregory L. Hart, who was serving as the Company's Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer, moved into the role of Executive Vice President Strategy and Planning on June 1, 2020.
[12:46] Shevla: Restaurant Brands Int'l (QSR)
Pershing Square increased active stake to 9.6% (prior ~5.36%)
"On June 1, 2020, PSH purchased 9,038,993 shares of Common Stock for an aggregate purchase price of $397,525,271 pursuant to forward purchase contracts described in the Original Schedule 13D. The source of funding for such purchases is the respective capital of PSH."
[12:46] Shevla: Cinemark (CNK)
Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.51 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.34 worse than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.17); revenues fell 23.9% yeayear to $543.6 mln vs the $557.51 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended March 31, 2020 was $66.2 million compared to $152.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2019.
For the three months ended March 31, 2020, attendance was 45.8 million patrons, average ticket price increased 0.6% to $6.39 and concession revenues per patron increased 3.2% to $4.16.
[12:47] Shevla: Warner Music Group (WMG) (Nasdaq)
Upsizes offering by 7 mln shares and prices 77 mln share IPO at $25.00, inside the expected range of $23-26
[12:48] Shevla: VICI Properties (VICI)
Physically settled the Forward Sale Agreements in full by delivering 65 mln shares of common stock in exchange for total net proceeds of ~$1.3 billion
[12:49] Shevla: Digital Realty (DLR) and Ascenty, a provider of data center services in Latin America and a Digital Realty and Brookfield Infrastructure joint venture company, announced today Ascenty has reached agreement to build two new facilities in the state of Queretaro, Mexico anchored by long-term, U.S. dollar-denominated, multi-megawatt agreements to support the growth of a leading global cloud provider.
[12:49] Shevla: NICE (NICE) announced that a consortium of four UK police forces (Hampshire Constabulary, Thames Valley Police, Surrey Police and Sussex Police), operating as the South East Regional Integrated Policing Programme (SERIP), has signed a contract with NICE to deploy the NICE Investigate Digital Evidence Management Solution (DEMS). SERIP will roll out NICE Investigate to more than 12,000 officers to streamline investigations and address the challenges of growing digital evidence.
[12:49] Shevla: Trimble (TRMB) announced that its Trimble Connect cloud-based collaboration platform has surpassed 10 million users. In response to COVID-19, distributed working has intensified the need for teams to share information and collaborate remotely, leading 1.2 million users to join Trimble Connect in March and April alone.
[12:52] Shevla: Knight Cloud (KC)
Net loss was RMB331.6 million (US$46.8 million) or -23.8% net margin in the first quarter of 2020, compared with net loss of RMB201.4 million or net margin of -23.8% in the first quarter of 2019.
Total revenues were RMB1,391.0 million (US$1196.4 million) in the first quarter of 2020, representing an increase of 64.5 % year-over-year.
IPO was held 4 weeks ago, opening at $17. Now trading at $22.86, up in the premarket.
Might be a Buy or a play on positive movement
[12:53] Shevla: Google (GOOG) will face $5 bln lawsuit over alleged privacy violation.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-alphabet-google-privacy-lawsuit/google-faces-5-billion-lawsuit-in-u-s-for-tracking-private-internet-use-idUSKBN23933H
CDC is close to agreement on how to limit COVID-19 outbreaks on cruise ships (RCL, CCL, NCLH).
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article243180861.html
May preliminary class 8 net truck orders fell 38% yyr to 6,700 units (IYT, JBHT, PCAR).
https://content.actresearch.net/blog/act-research-soi-may-data-show-depth-of-supply-chain-disruption-in-cv-industry?utm_campaign=SOI%20Trucks&utm_content=130775172&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-47438459(edited))
[12:58] Shevla: Research Calls Round 1
ZM likely to move up with it's volatile history in respoense to the upgrades
Morgan Stanley is negative on cruise lines (NCLH, RCL, CCL), remains to be seen how CDC agreement posted earlier will affect pricing

[12:59] Shevla: OIL OPEC+
OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC Russia have preliminary agreed to extend existing record oil production cuts by one month, while raising pressure on countries with poor compliance to deepen cuts to their output, sources told Reuters.

"Any agreement on extending the cuts is conditional on countries who have not fully complied in May deepening their cuts in upcoming months to offset their overproduction," one OPEC source said.(edited)
[13:00] Shevla: Stitch Fix (SFIX)
Telsey Advisory Group raises their SFIX tgt to $29 from $20. Analyst Dana Telsey said, "A strong balance sheet means the company can continue to self-fund growth while managing through a highly uncertain environment. In addition, the current disruption may accelerate the shift to online sales and we see the potential for the company's flexible model (no bricks-and-mortar stores, work-from-home stylist team) to allow it to continue to take share. Therefore, despite a moderated sales outlook for the year and the capacity constraints brought about by COVID, we continue to see growth potential within the company's personalization model, while the direct buy capabilities can increase share of wallet. Therefore, we maintain our Outperform rating. With some improved visibility to the contours of a recovery from COVID, we are raising our price target to $29 from $20. Our price target assumes a 1.21x multiple on our two-year forward revenue estimate, which compares to the historical average one-year forward multiple of 1.33x."
[13:01] Shevla: Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)
Telsey Advisory Group raises their DKS tgt to $49 from $43. Analyst Joseph Feldman said, "Dick's Sporting Goods had a tough 1Q20, with EPS of ($1.71), on a comp of (29.5%) and operating margin compression of ~1,800 bps to (14.0%). However, we were impressed by the pace of recovery in May, with the comp only down 4.0% YoY, driven by good performance in reopened stores and strength in e-commerce (up 250%). Curbside pickup was a meaningful contributor, representing 40% of online sales in 1Q20. In addition, Dick's is benefiting from a diversified product mix and strong consumer demand in a variety of categories, including fitness, outdoor, running, golfing, biking, and boating. The US government stimulus checks are likely helping, as is the case with most retailers. Team sports remains an area of concern, given uncertainty around the restart of youth leagues and school sports. However, Dick's is seeing positive results in recently reopened markets, particularly in baseball. All in, given the better-than-expected sales recovery in May, we are raising our EPS and comp targets for the remainder of 2020 and 2021."
[13:02] Shevla: RH (RH) Not Robinhood you degenerate autists
Telsey Advisory Group raises their RH tgt to $255 from $110. Analyst Cristina Fernndez commented, "After disclosing on its last earnings call that sales trends from March 18 (once stores closed) thru March 30 were running down 43%, we believe RH's business significantly improved in April and May as affluent consumers looked to upgrade their homes after an initial stock-up period for essentials. Historically, RH sales have been directionally correlated with the stock market, which has rebounded strongly since bottoming in late March and is now just down 5% YTD. RH also stands to benefit from a sizable digital business, which we estimate represented ~40% of its sales in 2019 and the rollout of virtual design consultations where customers work with an RH interior designer without visiting a store. Similar to Williams-Sonoma, RH should have seen strength in a number of categories in recent weeks including baby/teen, outdoor, and upholstery. Our real estate contacts have also indicated that business has been good at RH stores that reopened in May, which total ~50% of the store base...Overall, we are incrementally more positive on RH and believe the company can perform well in the current environment given: 1) a large digital business; 2) increased demand for home furnishings as consumers spend more time at home; and 3) an affluent consumer that is in relatively better shape given stock market gains and less job losses, with greater ability to work from home. "
[13:03] Shevla: Haemonetics (HAE)
To sell its Fajardo, Puerto Rico, manufacturing operations to GVS, S.p.A.; transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of calendar 2020
Under the terms of the agreement, upon closing, Haemonetics will retain all intellectual property rights to its proprietary blood filters currently manufactured at its Fajardo facility, while GVS will obtain certain operating assets, including manufacturing equipment and inventory and a sublease to the facility.
[13:06] Shevla: Canada Goose (GOOS)
Reports Q4 (Mar) loss of CAD0.12 per share, in-line with the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of (CAD0.12); revenues fell 9.8% yeayear to CAD140.9 mln vs the CAD130.37 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
Outlook
The negative financial impacts of COVID-19 will be more pronounced in the first quarter ending June 28, 2020, with a negligible level of revenue expected. The first quarter is historically the smallest in the fiscal year, representing 7.4% of annual sales in fiscal 2020.
Throughout the first seven weeks of the first quarter of fiscal 2021, 75% or 15 of 20 retail stores in the DTC channel were temporarily closed. 2 of the 5 stores that were open during this period, both in Hong Kong, have been severely impacted by restrictions on inbound tourism. Our store in Paris re-opened on May 20, followed by Milan on May 29 and Montreal on June 2. Further openings are being evaluated on a staged region-by-region basis, based on regulatory guidelines and supporting traffic trends as well as the health and safety of employees and guests.
While e-commerce is operational in all markets and digital engagement is strong, this off-season period is a low point for consumer purchasing online. In the wholesale channel, shipments to partners have been largely shutoff since March due to disruptions from retail store closures.
Given prevailing global uncertainties, including the evolution of ongoing outbreaks, the duration of retail store closures, the pace of retail normalization following re-openings and the impact of economic developments and travel restrictions on consumer discretionary spending, all of which are unknown, the Company is not providing an outlook for fiscal 2021.
[13:06] Shevla: AMC Entertainment (AMC)
Co issues downside guidance for Q1 (Mar), sees Q1 (Mar) revs of $941.5 mln vs. $947.06 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
Net Loss for the first quarter of 2020 to be between $2,117.3 million and $2,417.3 million, based on an impairment charge related to estimated long lived assets, indefinite-lived intangible assets and goodwill of $1,800.0 million to $2,100.0 million, compared to a net loss of $130.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2019.
[13:07] Shevla: Dynatrace (DT)
Prices 30 mln common shares at $35.00/share
Current Price $36.77(edited)
[13:10] Shevla: Qudian (QD) to purchase up to 10,204,082 newly issued Class A ordinary shares of Secoo (SECO) for up to $100 mln ($9.80 per share) Current Price $2.15
Following the completion of all transactions contemplated under the definitive agreement, Qudian will hold approximately 28.9% of Secoo's issued and outstanding shares, becoming its largest shareholder. In addition, Qudian and Secoo will also enter into a business cooperation agreement, which will set forth the key areas for the two companies' strategic cooperation in the online luxury e-commerce business space.

SECO IS UP STRONGLY IN THE PREMARKET ON THIS NEWS
Buy or Positive Movement Play probably viable
[13:11] Shevla: Campbell Soup (CPB)
Reports Q3 (Apr) earnings of $0.83 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.29 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.54; revenues rose 14.6% yeayear to $2.24 bln vs the $2.26 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
In the third quarter of fiscal 2020, Campbell achieved $30 million in savings under its multi-year cost savings program, inclusive of Snyder's-Lance synergies, bringing total program-to-date savings to $680 million. Year-to-date savings were $120 million through the first nine months of fiscal 2020. As previously announced, the company expects to deliver cumulative annualized savings of $850 million by the end of fiscal 2022.
Co issues guidance for FY20, raises EPS to $2.87-2.92 from $2.55-2.60, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $2.89 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees FY20 revs of +5.5-6.0% from (1%) to 1% to $8.55-8.63 bln vs. $8.63 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
[13:14] Shevla: Aegon (AEG)
Shares are trading higher after the company signed a contract of portfolio administration with IBM Services for 800K individual life insurance contracts.
[13:15] Shevla: Constellium SE (CTSM)
Airbus (AIR)
Shares are trading higher after the company announced it has signed a multi-year contract with Airbus to supply aerospace aluminum products and solutions.
[13:17] Shevla: Gilead Sciences (GIL)
Upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at SVB Leerink; tgt raised to $94
South Korea Announced they have approved Remdesivir for use in treating patients
[13:17] Shevla: KeyCorp (KEY)
Downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Stephens; tgt $13
[13:18] Shevla: ONEOK (OKE)
Downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $36
[13:18] Shevla: Vale S.A. (VALE)
Upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; tgt lowered to $12
[13:18] Shevla: Microchip (MCHP)
B. Riley FBR upgrades MCHP to Buy from Neutral and raises their tgt to $125 from $85. Analyst Craig Ellis said, "Tuesday 6/2 AMC, MCHP raised F1Q21's guide $40M (+300 bps)/$0.09 ahead of competitor conference appearances, flagging better-than-feared supply chain dynamics and less bad auto cancellations and pushouts. Shares rose ~5%. Improvement versus relatively dour early quarter expectations helps remove a dark cloud of uncertainty, and we believe the ~43% of sales in Auto and Industrial has now stabilized, with the next inflection positive. Beyond that, we believe data points in Compute/Data Center, Comms, and Mil/Aero have improved since MCHP last reported, so ~44% of sales should have stronger momentum. Overall, we believe this significantly enhances confidence in an F1Q21 revenue bottom and F2Q21 Q/Q growth, meaning sales are troughing with GM and OM within ~200 and 300 bps of 63.0% and 40.0% targets, respectively which we suspect could be attained on a quarterly basis in FY22. So, with a 5-6% increase in FY21&22 EPS and a FY22 target P/E hike to 19.0x, our price target jumps from $85 to $125, and the rating lifts from Neutral back to Buy. We acknowledge shares have already moved sharply from March lows with the sector's upswing, but a return to growth, GM and OM expansion toward 65%/45% LT, and debt paydown toward 3.0x EBITDA are catalysts for another leg higher to and through our PT on a 12-month basis. Valuation at 16.7x, 14.9x, and 13.3x or FY21-23 EPS, vs. a T-7-year 16.1x F12M average."
[13:19] Shevla: Nebula Acquisition (NEBU)
Initiated with an Outperform at Northland Capital; tgt $15
[13:20] Shevla: Boeing (BA)
Lifting in premarket trade as Third Point portfolio update circulates
Portfolio MTD winners: DIS BURL BA CHTR TEL
Top gross longs: PUK PCG SNE DHR AMZN
https://www.thirdpointoffshore.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2020-05-May-Monthly-Report-TPOI.pdf
[13:21] Shevla: Dunkin (DNKN)
Dunkin' U.S. comparable store sales have been improving week-over-week during the second quarter. As of the week ended May 23, 2020, quarter-to-date comparable store sales declines were ~23% for open stores. During the week ended May 23, 2020, comparable store sales declined 15% for open stores, representing a significant sequential improvement over the decline of 25% for the week ended April 25, 2020, as reported on the Company's first quarter earnings call on April 30, 2020.
Improved comparable store sales in the first 8 weeks of the second quarter has primarily been driven by the following three factors: Strong sales at drive-thru locations; Double-digit comparable store sales growth versus the prior year during the 11:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. time period, driven by higher ticket orders; and Increased sales through the Dunkin' app, delivery, and curbside; digital adoption has increased weekly as compelling local and national offers entice guests to join, reactivate, and use DD Perks to make their transactions. Quarter-to-date comparable store sales ending May 23, 2020 would have been ~500 basis points lower if temporarily closed restaurants were included. They would have been ~300 basis points lower for the week ending May 23, 2020 if temporarily closed restaurants were included.
Baskin-Robbins U.S. - As of the week ending May 23, 2020, quarter-to-date comparable store sales declines were negative 10.5% for open stores. For the week ending May 23, 2020, Baskin-Robbins U.S. comparable store sales were ~flat representing a sequential improvement from the negative 10% comparable store sales for the week ending April 25, 2020, which was also reported on the Company's first quarter earnings call.
[13:21] Shevla: Arco Platform (ARCE)
Priced an underwritten public offering of 5,563,203 Class A common shares offered by General Atlantic Arco and Alfaco Holding at $47.70/share
Current Price $50.46(edited)
[13:22] Shevla: Lyft (LYFT)
Shares are trading higher after the company reported a 26% month-over-month increase in May rides.

[13:25] Shevla: Pyxis Tankers (PXS)
Shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected Q1 sales results.
[13:27] Shevla: THIRD POINT PORTFOLIO UPDATE
https://www.thirdpointoffshore.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2020-05-May-Monthly-Report-TPOI.pdf
You made it to the bottom! I recognize this is a pretty low effort post, ie. I totally copied and pasted it all from the DD channel in the discord. I'll Update this if I feel like it. Post questions I'll answer where possible, idek whether this is going to be viable daily. Consider it an experiment. Apologies if any of this is a breach of the ruiles.
submitted by burningshinobi to outofoptions [link] [comments]

Intraday vs Delivery  Intraday vs Delivery Trading in Tamil  Tamil Stock Market Margin Trading 101: How It Works - YouTube DIFFRENCE BETWEEN DELIVERY, MARGIN AND INTRADAY IN ANGEL MOBILE APP How to Control Emotions in Margin Delivery (BTST) Trading ... Intraday vs delivery tradingdifference between intraday and delivery in hindi

I will begin by giving out textbook definitions along with the advantages and disadvantages of both margin, i.e. intraday trading and delivery trading, and then draw a parallel between the two of them. What is Intraday Trading? When you’re buying ... Margin Trading: In the stock market, margin trading refers to the process whereby individual investors buy more stocks than they can afford to. Margin trading also refers to intraday trading in India and various stock brokers provide this service. Margin trading involves buying and selling of securities in one single session. Over time, ... ƒÿ €ªªªêÿ^—“¦ Dz ¤©-îá –a ¹[email protected]€˜ª˜™Dè–ªjnî à×&ÖîÒ kiÒÜ[ ¤Y‰D"‘H$Iš;kWFFVVž0²ÿó¶Ô’¢Ì\lñj ó? þ ... Delivery vs intraday trading is one of the most discussed topics in the equity market. In simple terms, if you are looking for a quick profit from share trading, then the intraday day is the right option to choose. Intraday Vs Delivery Trading Risks. In intraday trading, the securities are squared off before the end of the trading day, so the risks are limited to within the day, but in delivery trading, the positions are held overnight and in fact, over months and years, so the risk continues.

[index] [164] [226] [684] [293] [299] [372] [318] [34] [88] [435]

Intraday vs Delivery Intraday vs Delivery Trading in Tamil Tamil Stock Market

Futures & Options Trading in tamil.. basics of Equity/ Futures/ Options in tamil to beginners guide. ... DELIVERY VS INTRADAY IN TAMIL - Duration: 9:36. Tamil share market 16,883 views. Angel Broking Margin Account / Trading Account http://tinyurl.com/y7pdd5qn Telegram Channel Link Knowledge Book https://t.me/knowledgebook9 90 Days Hold in M... This video contains pen-paper explanation Of intraday and delivery trading. It is a toutorial based on difference between intraday and delivery trading along with explanation of some basic terms ... Very few stockbrokers provide any kind of exposure on delivery trades. The reason for that is simple, in delivery trading, the exit of the position is completely the investor's choice. And it does ... Click here to Subscribe - https://www.youtube.com/OptionAlpha?sub_confirmation=1 Are you familiar with stock trading and the stock market but want to learn h...

#