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The dollar standard and how the Fed itself created the perfect setup for a stock market crash

Disclaimer: This is neither financial nor trading advice and everyone should trade based on their own risk tolerance. Please leverage yourself accordingly. When you're done, ask yourself: "Am I jacked to the tits?". If the answer is "yes", you're good to go.
We're probably experiencing the wildest markets in our lifetime. After doing some research and listening to opinions by several people, I wanted to share my own view on what happened in the market and what could happen in the future. There's no guarantee that the future plays out as I describe it or otherwise I'd become very rich.
If you just want tickers and strikes...I don't know if this is going to help you. But anyways, scroll way down to the end. My current position is TLT 171c 8/21, opened on Friday 7/31 when TLT was at 170.50.
This is a post trying to describe what it means that we've entered the "dollar standard" decades ago after leaving the gold standard. Furthermore I'll try to explain how the "dollar standard" is the biggest reason behind the 2008 and 2020 financial crisis, stock market crashes and how the Coronavirus pandemic was probably the best catalyst for the global dollar system to blow up.

Tackling the Dollar problem

Throughout the month of July we've seen the "death of the Dollar". At least that's what WSB thinks. It's easy to think that especially since it gets reiterated in most media outlets. I will take the contrarian view. This is a short-term "downturn" in the Dollar and very soon the Dollar will rise a lot against the Euro - supported by the Federal Reserve itself.US dollar Index (DXY)If you zoom out to the 3Y chart you'll see what everyone is being hysterical about. The dollar is dying! It was that low in 2018! This is the end! The Fed has done too much money printing! Zimbabwe and Weimar are coming to the US.
There is more to it though. The DXY is dominated by two currency rates and the most important one by far is EURUSD.EURUSD makes up 57.6% of the DXY
And we've seen EURUSD rise from 1.14 to 1.18 since July 21st, 2020. Why that date? On that date the European Commission (basically the "government" of the EU) announced that there was an agreement for the historical rescue package for the EU. That showed the markets that the EU seems to be strong and resilient, it seemed to be united (we're not really united, trust me as an European) and therefore there are more chances in the EU, the Euro and more chances taking risks in the EU.Meanwhile the US continued to struggle with the Coronavirus and some states like California went back to restricting public life. The US economy looked weaker and therefore the Euro rose a lot against the USD.
From a technical point of view the DXY failed to break the 97.5 resistance in June three times - DXY bulls became exhausted and sellers gained control resulting in a pretty big selloff in the DXY.

Why the DXY is pretty useless

Considering that EURUSD is the dominant force in the DXY I have to say it's pretty useless as a measurement of the US dollar. Why? Well, the economy is a global economy. Global trade is not dominated by trade between the EU and the USA. There are a lot of big exporting nations besides Germany, many of them in Asia. We know about China, Japan, South Korea etc. Depending on the business sector there are a lot of big exporters in so-called "emerging markets". For example, Brazil and India are two of the biggest exporters of beef.
Now, what does that mean? It means that we need to look at the US dollar from a broader perspective. Thankfully, the Fed itself provides a more accurate Dollar index. It's called the "Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad, Goods and Services".
When you look at that index you will see that it didn't really collapse like the DXY. In fact, it still is as high as it was on March 10, 2020! You know, only two weeks before the stock market bottomed out. How can that be explained?

Global trade, emerging markets and global dollar shortage

Emerging markets are found in countries which have been shifting away from their traditional way of living towards being an industrial nation. Of course, Americans and most of the Europeans don't know how life was 300 years ago.China already completed that transition. Countries like Brazil and India are on its way. The MSCI Emerging Market Index lists 26 countries. Even South Korea is included.
However there is a big problem for Emerging Markets: the Coronavirus and US Imports.The good thing about import and export data is that you can't fake it. Those numbers speak the truth. You can see that imports into the US haven't recovered to pre-Corona levels yet. It will be interesting to see the July data coming out on August 5th.Also you can look at exports from Emerging Market economies. Let's take South Korean exports YoY. You can see that South Korean exports are still heavily depressed compared to a year ago. Global trade hasn't really recovered.For July the data still has to be updated that's why you see a "0.0%" change right now.Less US imports mean less US dollars going into foreign countries including Emerging Markets.Those currency pairs are pretty unimpressed by the rising Euro. Let's look at a few examples. Use the 1Y chart to see what I mean.
Indian Rupee to USDBrazilian Real to USDSouth Korean Won to USD
What do you see if you look at the 1Y chart of those currency pairs? There's no recovery to pre-COVID levels. And this is pretty bad for the global financial system. Why? According to the Bank of International Settlements there is $12.6 trillion of dollar-denominated debt outside of the United States. Now the Coronavirus comes into play where economies around the world are struggling to go back to their previous levels while the currencies of Emerging Markets continue to be WEAK against the US dollar.
This is very bad. We've already seen the IMF receiving requests for emergency loans from 80 countries on March 23th. What are we going to see? We know Argentina has defaulted on their debt more than once and make jokes about it. But what happens if we see 5 Argentinas? 10? 20? Even 80?
Add to that that global travel is still depressed, especially for US citizens going anywhere. US citizens traveling to other countries is also a situation in which the precious US dollars would enter Emerging Market economies. But it's not happening right now and it won't happen unless we actually get a miracle treatment or the virus simply disappears.
This is where the treasury market comes into play. But before that, let's quickly look at what QE (rising Fed balance sheet) does to the USD.
Take a look at the Trade-Weighted US dollar Index. Look at it at max timeframe - you'll see what happened in 2008. The dollar went up (shocker).Now let's look at the Fed balance sheet at max timeframe. You will see: as soon as the Fed starts the QE engine, the USD goes UP, not down! September 2008 (Fed first buys MBS), March 2009, March 2020. Is it just a coincidence? No, as I'll explain below. They're correlated and probably even in causation.Oh and in all of those scenarios the stock market crashed...compared to February 2020, the Fed balance sheet grew by ONE TRILLION until March 25th, but the stock market had just finished crashing...can you please prove to me that QE makes stock prices go up? I think I've just proven the opposite correlation.

Bonds, bills, Gold and "inflation"

People laugh at bond bulls or at people buying bonds due to the dropping yields. "Haha you're stupid you're buying an asset which matures in 10 years and yields 5.3% STONKS go up way more!".Let me stop you right there.
Why do you buy stocks? Will you hold those stocks until you die so that you regain your initial investment through dividends? No. You buy them because you expect them to go up based on fundamental analysis, news like earnings or other things. Then you sell them when you see your price target reached. The assets appreciated.Why do you buy options? You don't want to hold them until expiration unless they're -90% (what happens most of the time in WSB). You wait until the underlying asset does what you expect it does and then you sell the options to collect the premium. Again, the assets appreciated.
It's the exact same thing with treasury securities. The people who've been buying bonds for the past years or even decades didn't want to wait until they mature. Those people want to sell the bonds as they appreciate. Bond prices have an inverse relationship with their yields which is logical when you think about it. Someone who desperately wants and needs the bonds for various reasons will accept to pay a higher price (supply and demand, ya know) and therefore accept a lower yield.
By the way, both JP Morgan and Goldmans Sachs posted an unexpected profit this quarter, why? They made a killing trading bonds.
US treasury securities are the most liquid asset in the world and they're also the safest asset you can hold. After all, if the US default on their debt you know that the world is doomed. So if US treasuries become worthless anything else has already become worthless.
Now why is there so much demand for the safest and most liquid asset in the world? That demand isn't new but it's caused by the situation the global economy is in. Trade and travel are down and probably won't recover anytime soon, emerging markets are struggling both with the virus and their dollar-denominated debt and central banks around the world struggle to find solutions for the problems in the financial markets.
How do we now that the markets aren't trusting central banks? Well, bonds tell us that and actually Gold tells us the same!
TLT chartGold spot price chart
TLT is an ETF which reflects the price of US treasuries with 20 or more years left until maturity. Basically the inverse of the 30 year treasury yield.
As you can see from the 5Y chart bonds haven't been doing much from 2016 to mid-2019. Then the repo crisis of September 2019took place and TLT actually rallied in August 2019 before the repo crisis finally occurred!So the bond market signaled that something is wrong in the financial markets and that "something" manifested itself in the repo crisis.
After the repo market crisis ended (the Fed didn't really do much to help it, before you ask), bonds again were quiet for three months and started rallying in January (!) while most of the world was sitting on their asses and downplaying the Coronavirus threat.
But wait, how does Gold come into play? The Gold chart basically follows the same pattern as the TLT chart. Doing basically nothing from 2016 to mid-2019. From June until August Gold rose a staggering 200 dollars and then again stayed flat until December 2019. After that, Gold had another rally until March when it finally collapsed.
Many people think rising Gold prices are a sign of inflation. But where is the inflation? We saw PCE price indices on Friday July 31st and they're at roughly 1%. We've seen CPIs from European countries and the EU itself. France and the EU (July 31st) as a whole had a very slight uptick in CPI while Germany (July 30th), Italy (July 31st) and Spain (July 30th) saw deflationary prints.There is no inflation, nowhere in the world. I'm sorry to burst that bubble.
Yet, Gold prices still go up even when the Dollar rallies through the DXY (sadly I have to measure it that way now since the trade-weighted index isn't updated daily) and we know that there is no inflation from a monetary perspective. In fact, Fed chairman JPow, apparently the final boss for all bears, said on Wednesday July 29th that the Coronavirus pandemic is a deflationary disinflationary event. Someone correct me there, thank you. But deflationary forces are still in place even if JPow wouldn't admit it.
To conclude this rather long section: Both bonds and Gold are indicators for an upcoming financial crisis. Bond prices should fall and yields should go up to signal an economic recovery. But the opposite is happening. in that regard heavily rising Gold prices are a very bad signal for the future. Both bonds and Gold are screaming: "The central banks haven't solved the problems".
By the way, Gold is also a very liquid asset if you want quick cash, that's why we saw it sell off in March because people needed dollars thanks to repo problems and margin calls.When the deflationary shock happens and another liquidity event occurs there will be another big price drop in precious metals and that's the dip which you could use to load up on metals by the way.

Dismantling the money printer

But the Fed! The M2 money stock is SHOOTING THROUGH THE ROOF! The printers are real!By the way, velocity of M2 was updated on July 30th and saw another sharp decline. If you take a closer look at the M2 stock you see three parts absolutely skyrocketing: savings, demand deposits and institutional money funds. Inflationary? No.
So, the printers aren't real. I'm sorry.Quantitative easing (QE) is the biggest part of the Fed's operations to help the economy get back on its feet. What is QE?Upon doing QE the Fed "purchases" treasury and mortgage-backed securities from the commercial banks. The Fed forces the commercial banks to hand over those securities and in return the commercial banks reserve additional bank reserves at an account in the Federal Reserve.
This may sound very confusing to everyone so let's make it simple by an analogy.I want to borrow a camera from you, I need it for my road trip. You agree but only if I give you some kind of security - for example 100 bucks as collateral.You keep the 100 bucks safe in your house and wait for me to return safely. You just wait and wait. You can't do anything else in this situation. Maybe my road trip takes a year. Maybe I come back earlier. But as long as I have your camera, the 100 bucks need to stay with you.
In this analogy, I am the Fed. You = commercial banks. Camera = treasuries/MBS. 100 bucks = additional bank reserves held at the Fed.

Revisiting 2008 briefly: the true money printers

The true money printers are the commercial banks, not the central banks. The commercial banks give out loans and demand interest payments. Through those interest payments they create money out of thin air! At the end they'll have more money than before giving out the loan.
That additional money can be used to give out more loans, buy more treasury/MBS Securities or gain more money through investing and trading.
Before the global financial crisis commercial banks were really loose with their policy. You know, the whole "Big Short" story, housing bubble, NINJA loans and so on. The reckless handling of money by the commercial banks led to actual money printing and inflation, until the music suddenly stopped. Bear Stearns went tits up. Lehman went tits up.
The banks learned from those years and completely changed, forever. They became very strict with their lending resulting in the Fed and the ECB not being able to raise their rates. By keeping the Fed funds rate low the Federal Reserve wants to encourage commercial banks to give out loans to stimulate the economy. But commercial banks are not playing along. They even accept negative rates in Europe rather than taking risks in the actual economy.
The GFC of 2008 completely changed the financial landscape and the central banks have struggled to understand that. The system wasn't working anymore because the main players (the commercial banks) stopped playing with each other. That's also the reason why we see repeated problems in the repo market.

How QE actually decreases liquidity before it's effective

The funny thing about QE is that it achieves the complete opposite of what it's supposed to achieve before actually leading to an economic recovery.
What does that mean? Let's go back to my analogy with the camera.
Before I take away your camera, you can do several things with it. If you need cash, you can sell it or go to a pawn shop. You can even lend your camera to someone for a daily fee and collect money through that.But then I come along and just take away your camera for a road trip for 100 bucks in collateral.
What can you do with those 100 bucks? Basically nothing. You can't buy something else with those. You can't lend the money to someone else. It's basically dead capital. You can just look at it and wait until I come back.
And this is what is happening with QE.
Commercial banks buy treasuries and MBS due to many reasons, of course they're legally obliged to hold some treasuries, but they also need them to make business.When a commercial bank has a treasury security, they can do the following things with it:- Sell it to get cash- Give out loans against the treasury security- Lend the security to a short seller who wants to short bonds
Now the commercial banks received a cash reserve account at the Fed in exchange for their treasury security. What can they do with that?- Give out loans against the reserve account
That's it. The bank had to give away a very liquid and flexible asset and received an illiquid asset for it. Well done, Fed.
The goal of the Fed is to encourage lending and borrowing through suppressing yields via QE. But it's not happening and we can see that in the H.8 data (assets and liabilities of the commercial banks).There is no recovery to be seen in the credit sector while the commercial banks continue to collect treasury securities and MBS. On one hand, they need to sell a portion of them to the Fed on the other hand they profit off those securities by trading them - remember JPM's earnings.
So we see that while the Fed is actually decreasing liquidity in the markets by collecting all the treasuries it has collected in the past, interest rates are still too high. People are scared, and commercial banks don't want to give out loans. This means that as the economic recovery is stalling (another whopping 1.4M jobless claims on Thursday July 30th) the Fed needs to suppress interest rates even more. That means: more QE. that means: the liquidity dries up even more, thanks to the Fed.
We heard JPow saying on Wednesday that the Fed will keep their minimum of 120 billion QE per month, but, and this is important, they can increase that amount anytime they see an emergency.And that's exactly what he will do. He will ramp up the QE machine again, removing more bond supply from the market and therefore decreasing the liquidity in financial markets even more. That's his Hail Mary play to force Americans back to taking on debt again.All of that while the government is taking on record debt due to "stimulus" (which is apparently only going to Apple, Amazon and Robinhood). Who pays for the government debt? The taxpayers. The wealthy people. The people who create jobs and opportunities. But in the future they have to pay more taxes to pay down the government debt (or at least pay for the interest). This means that they can't create opportunities right now due to the government going insane with their debt - and of course, there's still the Coronavirus.

"Without the Fed, yields would skyrocket"

This is wrong. The Fed has been keeping their basic level QE of 120 billion per month for months now. But ignoring the fake breakout in the beginning of June (thanks to reopening hopes), yields have been on a steady decline.
Let's take a look at the Fed's balance sheet.
The Fed has thankfully stayed away from purchasing more treasury bills (short term treasury securities). Bills are important for the repo market as collateral. They're the best collateral you can have and the Fed has already done enough damage by buying those treasury bills in March, destroying even more liquidity than usual.
More interesting is the point "notes and bonds, nominal". The Fed added 13.691 billion worth of US treasury notes and bonds to their balance sheet. Luckily for us, the US Department of Treasury releases the results of treasury auctions when they occur. On July 28th there was an auction for the 7 year treasury note. You can find the results under "Note -> Term: 7-year -> Auction Date 07/28/2020 -> Competitive Results PDF". Or here's a link.
What do we see? Indirect bidders, which are foreigners by the way, took 28 billion out of the total 44 billion. That's roughly 64% of the entire auction. Primary dealers are the ones which sell the securities to the commercial banks. Direct bidders are domestic buyers of treasuries.
The conclusion is: There's insane demand for US treasury notes and bonds by foreigners. Those US treasuries are basically equivalent to US dollars. Now dollar bears should ask themselves this question: If the dollar is close to a collapse and the world wants to get rid fo the US dollar, why do foreigners (i.e. foreign central banks) continue to take 60-70% of every bond auction? They do it because they desperately need dollars and hope to drive prices up, supported by the Federal Reserve itself, in an attempt to have the dollar reserves when the next liquidity event occurs.
So foreigners are buying way more treasuries than the Fed does. Final conclusion: the bond market has adjusted to the Fed being a player long time ago. It isn't the first time the Fed has messed around in the bond market.

How market participants are positioned

We know that commercial banks made good money trading bonds and stocks in the past quarter. Besides big tech the stock market is being stagnant, plain and simple. All the stimulus, stimulus#2, vaccinetalksgoingwell.exe, public appearances by Trump, Powell and their friends, the "money printing" (which isn't money printing) by the Fed couldn't push SPY back to ATH which is 339.08 btw.
Who can we look at? Several people but let's take Bill Ackman. The one who made a killing with Credit Default Swaps in March and then went LONG (he said it live on TV). Well, there's an update about him:Bill Ackman saying he's effectively 100% longHe says that around the 2 minute mark.
Of course, we shouldn't just believe what he says. After all he is a hedge fund manager and wants to make money. But we have to assume that he's long at a significant percentage - it doesn't even make sense to get rid of positions like Hilton when they haven't even recovered yet.
Then again, there are sources to get a peek into the positions of hedge funds, let's take Hedgopia.We see: Hedge funds are starting to go long on the 10 year bond. They are very short the 30 year bond. They are very long the Euro, very short on VIX futures and short on the Dollar.

Endgame

This is the perfect setup for a market meltdown. If hedge funds are really positioned like Ackman and Hedgopia describes, the situation could unwind after a liquidity event:The Fed increases QE to bring down the 30 year yield because the economy isn't recovering yet. We've already seen the correlation of QE and USD and QE and bond prices.That causes a giant short squeeze of hedge funds who are very short the 30 year bond. They need to cover their short positions. But Ackman said they're basically 100% long the stock market and nothing else. So what do they do? They need to sell stocks. Quickly. And what happens when there is a rapid sell-off in stocks? People start to hedge via put options. The VIX rises. But wait, hedge funds are short VIX futures, long Euro and short DXY. To cover their short positions on VIX futures, they need to go long there. VIX continues to go up and the prices of options go suborbital (as far as I can see).Also they need to get rid of Euro futures and cover their short DXY positions. That causes the USD to go up even more.
And the Fed will sit there and do their things again: more QE, infinity QE^2, dollar swap lines, repo operations, TARP and whatever. The Fed will be helpless against the forces of the market and have to watch the stock market burn down and they won't even realize that they created the circumstances for it to happen - by their programs to "help the economy" and their talking on TV. Do you remember JPow on 60minutes talking about how they flooded the world with dollars and print it digitally? He wanted us poor people to believe that the Fed is causing hyperinflation and we should take on debt and invest into the stock market. After all, the Fed has it covered.
But the Fed hasn't got it covered. And Powell knows it. That's why he's being a bear in the FOMC statements. He knows what's going on. But he can't do anything about it except what's apparently proven to be correct - QE, QE and more QE.

A final note about "stock market is not the economy"

It's true. The stock market doesn't reflect the current state of the economy. The current economy is in complete shambles.
But a wise man told me that the stock market is the reflection of the first and second derivatives of the economy. That means: velocity and acceleration of the economy. In retrospect this makes sense.
The economy was basically halted all around the world in March. Of course it's easy to have an insane acceleration of the economy when the economy is at 0 and the stock market reflected that. The peak of that accelerating economy ("max velocity" if you want to look at it like that) was in the beginning of June. All countries were reopening, vaccine hopes, JPow injecting confidence into the markets. Since then, SPY is stagnant, IWM/RUT, which is probably the most accurate reflection of the actual economy, has slightly gone down and people have bid up tech stocks in absolute panic mode.
Even JPow admitted it. The economic recovery has slowed down and if we look at economic data, the recovery has already stopped completely. The economy is rolling over as we can see in the continued high initial unemployment claims. Another fact to factor into the stock market.

TLDR and positions or ban?

TLDR: global economy bad and dollar shortage. economy not recovering, JPow back to doing QE Infinity. QE Infinity will cause the final squeeze in both the bond and stock market and will force the unwinding of the whole system.
Positions: idk. I'll throw in TLT 190c 12/18, SPY 220p 12/18, UUP 26c 12/18.That UUP call had 12.5k volume on Friday 7/31 btw.

Edit about positions and hedge funds

My current positions. You can laugh at my ZEN calls I completely failed with those.I personally will be entering one of the positions mentioned in the end - or similar ones. My personal opinion is that the SPY puts are the weakest try because you have to pay a lot of premium.
Also I forgot talking about why hedge funds are shorting the 30 year bond. Someone asked me in the comments and here's my reply:
"If you look at treasury yields and stock prices they're pretty much positively correlated. Yields go up, then stocks go up. Yields go down (like in March), then stocks go down.
What hedge funds are doing is extremely risky but then again, "hedge funds" is just a name and the hedgies are known for doing extremely risky stuff. They're shorting the 30 year bond because they needs 30y yields to go UP to validate their long positions in the equity market. 30y yields going up means that people are welcoming risk again, taking on debt, spending in the economy.
Milton Friedman labeled this the "interest rate fallacy". People usually think that low interest rates mean "easy money" but it's the opposite. Low interest rates mean that money is really tight and hard to get. Rising interest rates on the other hand signal an economic recovery, an increase in economic activity.
So hedge funds try to fight the Fed - the Fed is buying the 30 year bonds! - to try to validate their stock market positions. They also short VIX futures to do the same thing. Equity bulls don't want to see VIX higher than 15. They're also short the dollar because it would also validate their position: if the economic recovery happens and the global US dollar cycle gets restored then it will be easy to get dollars and the USD will continue to go down.
Then again, they're also fighting against the Fed in this situation because QE and the USD are correlated in my opinion.
Another Redditor told me that people who shorted Japanese government bonds completely blew up because the Japanese central bank bought the bonds and the "widow maker trade" was born:https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/widow-maker.asp"

Edit #2

Since I've mentioned him a lot in the comments, I recommend you check out Steven van Metre's YouTube channel. Especially the bottom passages of my post are based on the knowledge I received from watching his videos. Even if didn't agree with him on the fundamental issues (there are some things like Gold which I view differently than him) I took it as an inspiration to dig deeper. I think he's a great person and even if you're bullish on stocks you can learn something from Steven!

submitted by 1terrortoast to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

What has Trump actually done? I've done some research...

A little about myself: I have always been a right-leaning financially conservative liberal. Meaning I'm all for newer technologies. I want solar energy, electric cars, auto-driving technologies (Love Musk). I do care about our environment. I do believe LGBT relationships/marriage is awesome. I'm all for Black people having their fair style of policing as well. I hate Nazis, hate Communists, hate racism, sexism, abuse, etc. I hate hate. I love LOVE! I want our government to be LESS controlling and want less taxes. I do NOT believe we should be handing out welfare checks unless IF needed (you just lost a job, sure). If you are sitting on welfare for 10 years....that becomes a problem. I look at BOTH SIDES. I've signed up for newsletters/emails/facebook/twitter groups from both sides. However I've seen that the left has become a socialist groupthink mindset, for example omitting the word God in a few speeches....It's not a BIG deal but small unnoticed details may lead to big overhauls. The censorships of channels, the media attacking conservatives, people getting fired for just having a different political opinion...are you kidding me?? The media turning a blind eye to destruction yet talk about Coronavirus numbers and criminals that are resisting arrest get shot as the cop's fault...however we do need more police training. Cops are aggressive here (I do agree with my liberal friends on that). The double standard: letting people protest for BLM but when the Conservatives tried to protest to go back to work, at the beginning in March/April, they were at fault. Or how CA Gov Newsom stated "You're allowed to protest, but not allowed to have social gatherings"....isn't a protest a type of social gathering.
I don't like to be biased, but holy crap how much I've found what Trump has done for the past 3.5 years is insane!! My point is I look at both sides for politics. Anyways, I decided to do a full day's work with the help of some people to compile a list:
  1. Trump recently signed 3 bills to benefit Native people. One gives compensation to the Spokane tribe for loss of their lands in the mid-1900s, one funds Native language programs, and the third gives federal recognition to the Little Shell Tribe of Chippewa Indians in Montana.
  2. Trump finalized the creation of Space Force as our 6th Military branch.
  3. Trump signed a law to make cruelty to animals a federal felony so that animal abusers face tougher consequences.
  4. Violent crime has fallen every year he’s been in office after rising during the 2 years before he was elected.
  5. Trump signed a bill making CBD and Hemp legal.
  6. Trump’s EPA gave $100 million to fix the water infrastructure problem in Flint, Michigan.
  7. Under Trump’s leadership, in 2018 the U.S. surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest producer of crude oil.
  8. Trump signed a law ending the gag orders on Pharmacists that prevented them from sharing money-saving information.
  9. Trump signed the “Allow States and Victims to Fight Online Sex Trafficking Act” (FOSTA), which includes the “Stop Enabling Sex Traffickers Act” (SESTA) which both give law enforcement and victims new tools to fight sex trafficking.
  10. Trump signed a bill to require airports to provide spaces for breastfeeding Moms.
  11. The 25% lowest-paid Americans enjoyed a 4.5% income boost in November 2019, which outpaces a 2.9% gain in earnings for the country's highest-paid workers.
  12. Low-wage workers are benefiting from higher minimum wages and from corporations that are increasing entry-level pay.
  13. Trump signed the biggest wilderness protection & conservation bill in a decade and designated 375,000 acres as protected land.
  14. Trump signed the Save our Seas Act which funds $10 million per year to clean tons of plastic & garbage from the ocean.
  15. He signed a bill this year allowing some drug imports from Canada so that prescription prices would go down.
  16. Trump signed an executive order this year that forces all healthcare providers to disclose the cost of their services so that Americans can comparison shop and know how much less providers charge insurance companies.
  17. When signing that bill he said no American should be blindsided by bills for medical services they never agreed to in advance.
  18. Hospitals will now be required to post their standard charges for services, which include the discounted price a hospital is willing to accept.
  19. In the eight years prior to President Trump’s inauguration, prescription drug prices increased by an average of 3.6% per year. Under Trump, drug prices have seen year-over-year declines in nine of the last ten months, with a 1.1% drop as of the most recent month.
  20. He created a White House VA Hotline to help veterans and principally staffed it with veterans and direct family members of veterans.
  21. VA employees are being held accountable for poor performance, with more than 4,000 VA employees removed, demoted, and suspended so far.
  22. Issued an executive order requiring the Secretaries of Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs to submit a joint plan to provide veterans access to access to mental health treatment as they transition to civilian life.
  23. Because of a bill signed and championed by Trump, In 2020, most federal employees will see their pay increase by an average of 3.1% — the largest raise in more than 10 years.
  24. Trump signed into a law up to 12 weeks of paid parental leave for millions of federal workers.
  25. Trump administration will provide HIV prevention drugs for free to 200,000 uninsured patients per year for 11 years.
  26. All-time record sales during the 2019 holidays.
  27. Trump signed an order allowing small businesses to group together when buying insurance to get a better price
  28. President Trump signed the Preventing Maternal Deaths Act that provides funding for states to develop maternal mortality reviews to better understand maternal complications and identify solutions & largely focuses on reducing the higher mortality rates for Black Americans.
  29. In 2018, President Trump signed the groundbreaking First Step Act, a criminal justice bill which enacted reforms that make our justice system fairer and help former inmates successfully return to society.
  30. The First Step Act’s reforms addressed inequities in sentencing laws that disproportionately harmed Black Americans and reformed mandatory minimums that created unfair outcomes.
  31. The First Step Act expanded judicial discretion in sentencing of non-violent crimes.
  32. Over 90% of those benefitting from the retroactive sentencing reductions in the First Step Act are Black Americans.
  33. The First Step Act provides rehabilitative programs to inmates, helping them successfully rejoin society and not return to crime.
  34. Trump increased funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) by more than 14%.
  35. Trump signed legislation forgiving Hurricane Katrina debt that threatened HBCUs.
  36. New single-family home sales are up 31.6% in October 2019 compared to just one year ago.
  37. Made HBCUs a priority by creating the position of executive director of the White House Initiative on HBCUs.
  38. Trump received the Bipartisan Justice Award at a historically black college for his criminal justice reform accomplishments.
  39. The poverty rate fell to a 17-year low of 11.8% under the Trump administration as a result of a jobs-rich environment.
  40. Poverty rates for African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans have reached their lowest levels since the U.S. began collecting such data.
  41. President Trump signed a bill that creates five national monuments, expands several national parks, adds 1.3 million acres of wilderness, and permanently reauthorizes the Land and Water Conservation Fund.
  42. Trump’s USDA committed $124 Million to rebuild rural water infrastructure.
  43. Consumer confidence & small business confidence is at an all-time high.
  44. More than 7 million jobs created since election.
  45. More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
  46. More than 400,000 manufacturing jobs created since his election.
  47. Trump appointed 5 openly gay ambassadors.
  48. Trump ordered Ric Grenell, his openly gay ambassador to Germany, to lead a global initiative to decriminalize homosexuality across the globe.
  49. Through Trump’s Anti-Trafficking Coordination Team (ACTeam) initiative, Federal law enforcement more than doubled convictions of human traffickers and increased the number of defendants charged by 75% in ACTeam districts.
  50. In 2018, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismantled an organization that was the internet’s leading source of prostitution-related advertisements resulting in sex trafficking.
  51. Trump’s OMB published new anti-trafficking guidance for government procurement officials to more effectively combat human trafficking.
  52. Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s Homeland Security Investigations arrested 1,588 criminals associated with Human Trafficking.
  53. Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services provided funding to support the National Human Trafficking Hotline to identify perpetrators and give victims the help they need.
  54. The hotline identified 16,862 potential human trafficking cases.
  55. Trump’s DOJ provided grants to organizations that support human trafficking victims – serving nearly 9,000 cases from July 1, 2017, to June 30, 2018.
  56. The Department of Homeland Security has hired more victim assistance specialists, helping victims get resources and support.
  57. President Trump has called on Congress to pass school choice legislation so that no child is trapped in a failing school because of his or her zip code.
  58. The President signed funding legislation in September 2018 that increased funding for school choice by $42 million.
  59. The tax cuts signed into law by President Trump promote school choice by allowing families to use 529 college savings plans for elementary and secondary education.
  60. Under his leadership ISIS has lost most of their territory and been largely dismantled.
  61. ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was killed.
  62. Signed the first Perkins CTE reauthorization since 2006, authorizing more than $1 billion for states each year to fund vocational and career education programs.
  63. Executive order expanding apprenticeship opportunities for students and workers.
  64. Trump issued an Executive Order prohibiting the U.S. government from discriminating against Christians or punishing expressions of faith.
  65. Signed an executive order that allows the government to withhold money from college campuses deemed to be anti-Semitic and who fail to combat anti-Semitism.
  66. President Trump ordered a halt to U.S. tax money going to international organizations that fund or perform abortions.
  67. Trump imposed sanctions on the socialists in Venezuela who have killed their citizens.
  68. Finalized new trade agreement with South Korea.
  69. Made a deal with the European Union to increase U.S. energy exports to Europe.
  70. Withdrew the U.S. from the job killing TPP deal.
  71. Secured $250 billion in new trade and investment deals in China and $12 billion in Vietnam.
  72. Okay’ d up to $12 billion in aid for farmers affected by unfair trade retaliation.
  73. Has had over a dozen US hostages freed, including those Obama could not get freed.
  74. Trump signed the Music Modernization Act, the biggest change to copyright law in decades.
  75. Trump secured Billions that will fund the building of a wall at our southern border.
  76. The Trump Administration is promoting second chance hiring to give former inmates the opportunity to live crime-free lives and find meaningful employment.
  77. Trump’s DOJ and the Board Of Prisons launched a new “Ready to Work Initiative” to help connect employers directly with former prisoners.
  78. President Trump’s historic tax cut legislation included new Opportunity Zone Incentives to promote investment in low-income communities across the country.
  79. 8,764 communities across the country have been designated as Opportunity Zones.
  80. Opportunity Zones are expected to spur $100 billion in long-term private capital investment in economically distressed communities across the country.
  81. Trump directed the Education Secretary to end Common Core.
  82. Trump signed the 9/11 Victims Compensation Fund into law.
  83. Trump signed measure funding prevention programs for Veteran suicide.
  84. Companies have brought back over a TRILLION dollars from overseas because of the TCJA bill that Trump signed.
  85. Manufacturing jobs are growing at the fastest rate in more than 30 years.
  86. Stock Market has reached record highs.
  87. Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded.
  88. African-American unemployment is at an all-time low.(was until Covid bullshit)
  89. Hispanic-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
  90. Asian-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
  91. Women’s unemployment rate is at a 65-year low.
  92. Youth unemployment is at a 50-year low.
  93. We have the lowest unemployment rate ever recorded.
  94. The Pledge to America’s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans.
  95. 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future— the highest ever.
  96. As a result of the Republican tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
  97. Record number of regulations eliminated that hurt small businesses.
  98. Signed welfare reform requiring able-bodied adults who don’t have children to work or look for work if they’re on welfare.
  99. Under Trump, the FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history.
  100. Reformed Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs—saving seniors 100’s of millions of $$$ this year alone.
  101. Signed Right-To-Try legislation allowing terminally ill patients to try experimental treatment that wasn’t allowed before.
  102. Secured $6 billion in new funding to fight the opioid epidemic.
  103. Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care.
  104. U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high so we are less dependent on oil from the Middle East.
  105. The U.S. is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957.
  106. NATO allies increased their defense spending because of his pressure campaign.
  107. Withdrew the United States from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord in 2017 and that same year the U.S. still led the world by having the largest reduction in Carbon emissions.
  108. Has his circuit court judge nominees being confirmed faster than any other new administration.
  109. Had his Supreme Court Justice’s Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh confirmed.
  110. Moved U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
  111. Agreed to a new trade deal with Mexico & Canada that will increase jobs here and $$$ coming in.
  112. Reached a breakthrough agreement with the E.U. to increase U.S. exports.
  113. Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices, has agreed to a Part One trade deal with China.
  114. Signed legislation to improve the National Suicide Hotline.
  115. Signed the most comprehensive childhood cancer legislation ever into law, which will advance childhood cancer research and improve treatments.
  116. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed into law by Trump doubled the maximum amount of the child tax credit available to parents and lifted the income limits so more people could claim it.
  117. It also created a new tax credit for other dependents.
  118. In 2018, President Trump signed into law a $2.4 billion funding increase for the Child Care and Development Fund, providing a total of $8.1 billion to States to fund child care for low-income families.
  119. The Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC) signed into law by Trump provides a tax credit equal to 20-35% of child care expenses, $3,000 per child & $6,000 per family + Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) allow you to set aside up to $5,000 in pre-tax $ to use for child care.
  120. In 2019 President Donald Trump signed the Autism Collaboration, Accountability, Research, Education and Support Act (CARES) into law which allocates $1.8 billion in funding over the next five years to help people with autism spectrum disorder and to help their families.
  121. In 2019 President Trump signed into law two funding packages providing nearly $19 million in new funding for Lupus specific research and education programs, as well an additional $41.7 billion in funding for the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the most Lupus funding EVER.
  122. Another upcoming accomplishment to add: In the next week or two Trump will be signing the first major anti-robocall law in decades called the TRACED Act (Telephone Robocall Abuse Criminal Enforcement and Deterrence.) Once it’s the law, the TRACED Act will extend the period of time the FCC has to catch & punish those who intentionally break telemarketing restrictions. The bill also requires voice service providers to develop a framework to verify calls are legitimate before they reach your phone.
  123. Israel-UAE peace. More Muslim countries (Countries such as Oman, Morocco, Sudan, Lebanon) said they may follow. Last time Israel and a Muslim country normalized ties was 26 years ago.
  124. US stock market continually hits all-time record highs.
Note: I would like to also add that this list will obviously be very similar to other lists if not the same, since these are facts and not really opinions.
I may have missed some stuff or duplicated a few things. Sorry about that. Please let me know if you have anything to add. Thanks for reading!
submitted by Jules0328 to trump [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
  • Why it matters
  • Position sizing
  • Kelly
  • Using stops sensibly
  • Picking a clear level

Why it matters

The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing

The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".

https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:

https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.

Kelly Criterion

If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
  • How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
  • What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.

How to use stop losses sensibly

Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.

Picking a clear level

Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.

If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.

https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.

https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
  1. Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
  2. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
  3. Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.

Coming up in part II

EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns

Coming up in part III

Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Cheap Meat

Not sure if this is allowed, but fuck it, we're hurting and desperate times create desperate people who do desperate things.
TL;DR: Local butcher shop with cheap prices. Trying to keep afloat and keep folks fed. Address at bottom.
Sup ya'll, it's your favorite local meat boy (for those that don’t get it, here's my first post: original NYC meat boy post).
Despite COVID cases in NYC having dropped a fair amount, a lot of businesses that have opened up aren't doing so hot, and still some are not going to open up ever again. While there's unemployment insurance for individuals, there really isn't much for small local businesses. I also know that the pandemic boost for UI is about to run out end of month, so if you're sweating about how you're going to eat, I got you.
Most of America's economy began to feel the effects of The Rona around March of this year, but businesses located in Chinatown were fucked as early as January. America's reporting on COVID centered around China being the bad guy, which trends to loop all Asian Americans as "others" and "not really American." Chinese businesses tanked and hate crimes shot up. People within the community began their own self-imposed quarantine due to increased fear of being caught slacking by some racist fuckstick. Then came the formal lock down in March, which really flipped us over, bent us over the couch for good leverage, and fucked us deep and hard. At the time of 14JUNE2020, less than half of Chinatown's restaurants are open, and less than a third of total businesses are open (Bloomberg article supporting claim). Most funds meant as relief for small businesses got snagged by large corporations. And now all the SMEs are floundering. As of now, the end of July, still less than a third of Chinatown businesses have opened up, especially since most of them couldn't apply for any assistance due to language barriers.
So again, here I am peddling my wares. I also have $9.75 left from someone that wanted to pay it forward earlier in the year for what it’s worth.
We’re a small local meat shop. A butcher shop. A boutique culinary protein throwback to simpler times. Whatever the fuck you want to call it. We sell meat. You get the idea. Our prices are real fucking low. Lower than your self esteem. Lower than what your parents think of you. And that’s a good thing. Cause you like cheap things, you cheap fuck. Save all the money you can. While I can’t guarantee that we’re the cheapest you’ve ever seen, I can guarantee that we’ll be top five in cheapest prices in NYC.
What do you want? Cause more likely than not, we got that shit.
POULTRY. We got all kinds of birds. Chicken, silkies, qual, squab, duck, goose, stewing hens. Fuck you want? Still debating on whether drums or mid’s are better with your friends? Fuck around and cop a pound of each for under $5 per person: mid-wings are $3.89 a pound, drums are back to $.69/lb. Want more meat? Fine. A whole ass chicken leg and thigh, $.89/lb. You fuck with feet? It’s 2020, more power to you my guy. Chicken feet stands at $1.69/lb, duck feet at $1.49/lb. You into titties? Of course you're into titties: chicken breast coming in hot at $4.95 for a 2.2lb net weight bag. Into retirees and GILFs? All you Jack Black: Stewing Hens are two for $5.95. Haven’t gotten neck and head in a hot minute cause of COVID, or your Tinder and Hinge profile is just that basura? Say less: duck heads and necks at $1.39/lb. Into spawn kill? My guy: we got a dozen eggs for $2.95, 30 pack for $6.50. Duck eggs, six for $3.95.
PORK. My man, let me tell you something. You fuck with pork chops? Even if you don't, for $2.39/lb, you fuck with pork chops. We got tenderloins for $3.19/lb. Bones for stock? $.99/lb. Let me guess, you miss eating authentic char siu over rice with the sauce from Chinatown. At $2.69/lb for char siu meat, you can afford to fuck up three times and still come out ahead instead of buying it from a restaurant. Since it's getting hot, you're going to want to throw BBQs, right? Hopefully they're socially distanced, everyone is responsible and wearing a mask, and all you motherfuckers got COVID tested prior. Got you some ribs for $2.89 a pound. You want some of them dim sum ribs? Them itty bitty, little tiny cuts of ribs? Small just like your feelings when your ex left you? $3.59 a pound. You been going through a rough time and need an ear to listen to you. $3.39/lb for pig ears buddy, say more. If you been fucking with feet and chicken and duck feet don't cut it, do it like J. Cole "so big it's like a foot is in yo' mouth" cause I got pre-cut pig trotters for $1.49 a pound. Oh, you deadass want the whole foot in your mouth? Weird, but we're being open-minded here: whole uncut pig trotters at $1.79/lb.
BEEF. Let me guess: you haven't gotten enough foul language from this post and need a better tongue lashing? You filthy, sick, sorry, piece of shit. Beef tongues will run you $6.99 a pound. Or you want to boss up, but instead of being bad and boujee, you've been sad and boujee cause of COVID. Well, fear not, cause with femur bones at $1.95/lb, you can split them right down the fucking middle to get to that sweet, sweet, succulent marrow and feel like you're out brunching, spending $80 you don't have for a meal you can't afford to flex on hoes you couldn't really give less of a shit about. What's that? Pig trotters don't cut it? You trying to deepthroat the shit? I mean, do mama proud I guess. I got beef trotters/feet at $1.89 a pound. I mean, with skills like that, why you even buying from me? You belong on the yacht of some old rich man. But do you. Oh what's that? Your girl says your stroke game shit and you falling short of getting up in her guts? No fix for that, sorry, but you can cop honeycomb tripe or stomach at $3.39 a pound and know for a fact you can absolutely beat the ever living fuck out of these guts. You trying to fuck with flank steaks? $7.45 my guy. New York Strip? $8.99. T-Bone? $7.99. My bone? Ten camels. Where my Jamaicans at? Waa gwaan? I know oxtail is AT LEAST $6.75/lb where you’re at. We have them on deck for $5.99/lb.
Or maybe you’re a rapper. You’re on SoundCloud pushing music and living out your mama’s crib. No shame, it’s rough out here King. Want to know how to really blow up? What did Eminem call himself in 8 Mile? That’s right, B-Rabbit. And you know what I got? Rabbit for $4.69 a pound. You are what you eat man. I’m not saying that eating rabbit will immediately blow your rap career the fuck up and give you the lyrical genius of Eminem, but I’m not saying it won’t either. For less than $5 a pound, you really gonna chance it? What if the other rappers cop it and you don’t and they blow up? Don’t get left behind my guy. You a King and King’s gotta do what they don’t want to do sometimes for the betterment of the folks. And the folks want to hear your music.
Or maybe rabbit not your thing. You right, it’s too lean and lacks fat. Eat too much rabbit and nothing else and you’ll starve your body of fat. So how about goat? You want to be the GOAT, don’t you? Reddit’s even got a badge for it. If you want to be the Goat, guess what you gotta do? That’s fucking right, you are what you eat and here I am, your fucking pusher man for goat.
You're fancy and trying to be boujee. Let me guess: lamb? Say less, I got you that bonjour hon hon hon rack of of lamb chops. Want a quarter of lamb? Got that too. All you gotta do is ask.
I'm not going to really keep going down the list. You get the idea. I work at a fucking meat shop, I'm going to sell meat. I sell wholesale to restaurants and retail to walk-in folks. It's a pretty simple fucking concept. Is our meat fresh? As fresh as, if not more so, than any large chain due to constant turn over on wholesale side.
Why are our prices so low? Because we're a small mom-and-pop brick and mortar shop. We're located in Chinatown. Ever heard of FUBU? Same concept: we're built by Chinese immigrants, for Chinese immigrants. Unfortunately, the Chinese population in NYC is one of, if not THE poorest communities we have. Raising prices will price out the community and jack the reason why we're even here: to feed the community. This also means that our margins are fucked, but we're making it work. Yes, we look janky asf. I know, we're not "modern" and our aesthetic looks like some tossed together shit from the 60's. Shit, our band saw is from the 80's. But we're clean, we're sanitary, we pass all health standards and inspections, and we're doing our fucking best. We're literally the definition of "no frills." To hear some say it, we'd be considered ghetto. I prefer the term resourceful, so fuck you.
Because we're local and serve local, we only accept cash, EBT, SNAP, and debit. We don't do credit. Venmo is @FourSevenDivisionStreetTrading. PSA as the last one: if you think you can roll up to squeeze us, find out if you're a better shot than I am. Not my job to judge your life choices, but I will send you to someone who will.
I'm the only person here that is fluent in English, so unless you're feeling real brave about pointing at shit and figuring it out, you speak a dialect, know how to read Chinese, or know what cut you're looking for, come on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons (02:00pm - 06:30pm) since that's when I'm directly on the floor. If you're a restaurant and you're looking to keep overhead low, PM me, I'll work something out with you.
Our location is: 47 Division Street Ground Floor New York, NY 10002 B/D to Grand Street, F to East Broadway
Our hours are: Monday - Saturday 0800am - 0630pm
23JUL2020 0323AM Edit: Added beef and lamb, added venmo acc, schedule and times.
25JUL2020 0015AM Edit: Changed schedule to add in Saturday.
submitted by SleepyLi to nyc [link] [comments]

Why I am Long on ITM Power

ITM is a British manufacturer that provides hydrogen energy solutions. They are AIM-listed, which does limit the access to financials and analyst coverage, but they have been listed since 2004 giving us some history to judge. Looking at the fundamentals and what is happening in the industry, I'll try and work out if this is a good long term investment or not.

https://preview.redd.it/q97ud78qzw251.png?width=200&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebb658a09e6f99204c4886a303ece6f98798561e
What Does ITM Do?
Hydrogen energy solutions is a broad statement which doesn't tell us too much about the business. What we can do is look through their financial reports to see how they divide up their own business as well as the products they have on offer.
Their solutions include grid balancing, energy storage, production of green hydrogen for transport, and renewable heat and chemicals. However, this isn't what you will see on their balance sheet, there are two ways to breakdown their revenue, the type of operation and by sub-industry.

https://preview.redd.it/85j0e69rzw251.jpg?width=848&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91b5911fd929ee6748b90e496af53c3f864149bf
Source: ITM Interim 2019 Report
Construction contracts make up the lion share of the revenue for ITM. A large part of their business is installing large bases for refuelling, energy containment, or even processing plants. For example, having a fleet of hydrogen busses means you need a specialist refuelling station. You could either lease one or pay ITM to construct one complete with their hydrogen converting machines.

https://preview.redd.it/uwcy4ljtzw251.jpg?width=1569&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f0490bacb8bb8237288dfc9f11101c456b41aa85
Source: ITM AGM 2019 Presentation
Consulting also makes up a large part of their revenue. Being experts in their field ITM also offers to consult for both their installations as well as others. Not only is this any additional revenue line, but it also means existing installations are kept at maximum capacity and clients are happy.
Maintenance is split out from consulting and very strict about the reoccurring revenue of their machines and sites. This is also an interesting measure of existing finished sites where they are making ongoing revenue versus lots of new projects. Seeing this number increase means we have more finished projects bringing in a stable base of revenue, for what we hope is dramatically less cost.
Fuel sales are direct sales where they own the site and equipment and clients are charged to purchase hydrogen for their machines. This also includes selling fuel in bulk.
Finally, we have the always present "other" category, for any minor revenues which don't live anywhere else. This line is different from other operating income or one-off gains like selling parts of the business or a previously owned site.

https://preview.redd.it/s4a43yfuzw251.jpg?width=839&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e0dc86a322d2bf07f54b6ead9c467ae459ad60be
Source: ITM Interim 2019 Report
Alternatively, we can break down the business lines by what industry they relate to. This does mean some projects will be split across different segments, the totals always add up the same but it gives us some insight into why clients are coming to ITM.
Power-to-gas also is known as P2G is converting electrical energy into a gas, in this case, hydrogen. Two reasons for wanting to do this, firstly this is the end product (for ITM the next business line is where you see this as the end product), and secondly to store power. Electricity is a pain to store and can be expensive to keep as raw electricity. By converting this into a gas, it's easier to store and then use the gas as the power source. It's a great way to transport power without all the expensive infrastructure.
Refuelling is where ITM is powering machinery and vehicles. The main business for ITM is building refuelling depots. Buying a contract from ITM to build you a hydrogen refuel station for your new busses would show up as a construction contract and be created as part refuelling in this view.
The chemical industry is the leftover parts of the process which can still be sold and converted. It also includes taking P2G and performing more work to convert it into LPG. This means you can still produce liquid petroleum gas from ITM's equipment. Most of their customers won't want to be left with P2G and will want the extra steps to end up with LPG.
ITM also has another source of income not listed here.
Grants from different governments and bodies to further the research and development of clean energy. In 2019 ITM took £6.8m in grants, in the same period they made £4.6m in revenue. This is powering a significant about of R&D for the business, given we are in a situation where global governments have more pressing needs for their money, this is at risk of slipping.
What Do The Fundamentals Tell Us?
I mentioned an AIM listing makes this a bit harder. From a regulatory standpoint, they don't have to release as much information about their company as someone on the main exchange. AIM stocks are as a blanket rule, much higher risk because of this.

https://preview.redd.it/l5drak8vzw251.png?width=733&format=png&auto=webp&s=5032995f9af9740e63cb6d0aa11f5f94ec4a228f
Source: Genuine Impact
This kind of heavily skewed relative rank is expected. It's a small company which a lot of volatility. As always I want more context and will dive a bit deeper to understand what this means.
When looking at what ITM does I showed some financial statements and also highlight they historically have brought in more grants than revenue, which isn't a long term sustainable approach.
The revenue for the trailing twelve months was £5m, and they ended up with a -25.49% gross margin. Even before we look at the rest of the financials we can tell the cost of making revenue is painfully high and bleeding cash. If we take into account the rest of the costs with running the business we end up with a shocking -£9.45M loss. A profit margin of -205.88% is rare to see. The bulk of this heavy loss is down to two items, cost of revenue (as we know) followed by prototyping, which is considered separate to R&D.
Being so cash-intensive there are no dividends and as a shareholder, you can expect a negative EPS, currently sat at -2.90x.

https://preview.redd.it/38afnk2wzw251.jpg?width=1385&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=03bffc8298f946ef50c29249aa8dc2c26837e710
Source: Wallmine
What is interesting is the massive recent cash injection of £58.8m. This was completed as fundraise, meaning the company only has £18.11m in debt. Due to the way the reporting works all of this debt is listed as due within the year. If we face this off against current assets we see a very impressive £83.64m if we stretch ourselves and include long term assets we end up with a respectable £92.99m in assets.
While the company is bleeding cash, the assets are increasing. There is heavy investment in prototyping and developing new machinery to increase their reoccurring revenue beyond the first core sale. A riskier strategy but not an uncommon one for smaller companies. ITM can cover their liabilities and obligations in the short term, which does put them ahead of their similarly structured peers.
On the surface, the financials appear weaker than they are but based on the earnings we can expect this to be an overpriced stock.

https://preview.redd.it/qiafbrvwzw251.jpg?width=1489&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cf3a891705ce7a776b4dd14927944597aa5ddfa8
Source: Yahoo Finance
We are trading at all-time highs, and the momentum behind the price movement is very strong. Which is going to drastically harm the value assessment.
A price to sales of 177.69x and price to book of 53.96x are both abysmal figures. The recent fundraising has helped push the cash to shares to 0.02x, still very weak compared to what we would expect but a move in the right direction.
This is not a value purchase in any sense. You are paying an extreme premium based on old figures for a company which doesn't have the same level of reporting requirements you would expect from a main market listed company.
At this point, I would expect you to be very put off. The sell-side analysts with their future growth predictions for ITM are pegged to be extremely high and aggressive.

https://preview.redd.it/vc8fy6oxzw251.png?width=1078&format=png&auto=webp&s=f94e1732af1a307e3adc3e53da43557d67111aa8
Source: Genuine Impact
We know that ITM has missed every single one of its revenue and EPS targets set by Wall St, and judging by the even split of analyst ratings I would say they are mostly out of date. This is a small AIM stock, it's not going to have a strong following or large amounts of analysis available.
What stood out to me was the biggest driver behind why the future is looking so promising, and this helps us to understand the aggressive price growth as well.

https://preview.redd.it/jp13qakyzw251.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2766621d1e24075054f3bbd37ce5b215fb84684
Source: Genuine Impact
The smaller size of ITM means that in relative terms it is much easier to produce multiples in terms of future returns. Microsoft making an extra ten million a year won't have a big impact, you'd expect it. For ITM it's life-changing.
What Has Happened Since The Last Report?
With a lack of analysts, less frequent reporting, and lower coverage in general. It can be harder to understand. This is where I'm going to be a bit more predictive and look into the recent announcements since their last report.
ITM has won two new projects, new grant secured, and one other project is advanced to the next stage. This is huge news.
The last report mentioned £42.4m was currently in their backlog pipeline, with another £248m under negotiation. They have delivered on previous contracts and now executing on new deals.

https://preview.redd.it/ymm0icezzw251.jpg?width=1532&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=57c4299f23630bf6acf05e7306300628085a1a2c
Source: ITM Interim H1 2020 Results
We have a new JV kicking off, and these new deals entering testing to see if wider adoption is on the cards, there is a lot to be excited about.
Deploying Hydrogen Fuel Cell BusFleets for Public Transport across Australia
Funding Award to Supply an 8MW Electrolyser (£10m across 2021/2)
Green Hydrogen for Humberside Project DeploymentStudy
Industrial-scale renewable hydrogen project advances to the next phase
Right now ITM is losing out whenever it brings in revenue due to the higher costs, that is also why they are investing so heavily into prototypes and getting grants. To radically reduce the cost both to produce and buy.

https://preview.redd.it/vyc5b8700x251.jpg?width=1539&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f9bce0b62a6636c44b56377a4660724f01eda512
Source: ITM Interim H1 2020 Results
Why Do I Like This Risky Buy?
Let me be clear, AIM stocks are sensitive and unpredictable beasts. It is a much riskier investment and can be way more volatile. As a smaller chunk of my portfolio, I am willing to take on some risk.
There is a lot for me to like here. They have a great pipeline of work and new contracts, which are spread across Europe, with some in Asia, but the biggest focus is here in the UK. ITM has 37 contracts they are trying to close currently. The cost of goods is decreasing and the prototype funding is not coming from their pocket or shareholders, it's coming in the form of grants.
The latest fundraising has been done to address the working capital and to keep the books in balance while they keep delivering projects. Projects which once delivered still yield a return in the long run.
A company like this I would typically call an acquisition target and paint that as the exit. Here I feel there is more to give. Expanding with more JVs like the Linde deal, deepening their partnerships with Shell and Toyota, and pushing forward the deal to supply the infrastructure for keeping Australia's hydrogen busses going are all huge prospects.
The renewable space is huge, and ITM is pushing the core technologies and requirements forward. For me, they are making the right noises and show a lot of promise. There is a big risk in terms of cash flow and deals falling out the pipeline, but I have a bullish outlook for longer-term infrastructure work, and COVID-19 has only pushed forward the demand for cleaner energy and living.
Let me know what you think of my assessment, is this a stock you have looked into yourself? One to watch or are you avoiding it?
I had a great time writing this and I hope you found it insightful, let me know if there is anything you feel is missing or I should add.
Thanks for reading and stay safe.
submitted by kano2005 to UKInvesting [link] [comments]

🚨🚨🚨 Incoming rug pull and how to play it for maximum tendies.

Yes I know what you're thinking Autist, as you sit on your gaming chair sipping your choccy milk. "I've seen all these 🐻 posts before and stonks kept going up, printer goes BRRRRRR"
Fundamentals haven't mattered for months, and except for some sharp pullbacks, NQ and SPY have all been on an absolute tear being instabid on every dip.
That's all about the change.
Tldr - bond market/ PM pricing in no deal on stimulus. - Bifurcation of NQ and SPY reached major tipping points. - DXY likely to bounce back strongly on risk off sentiment and foreign central bank action. - macro long term positioning for Inflation playing out across asset class correlations ( RUSSELL and value stocks starting to gain traction )
1. Priced In has become a retarded meme at this point but what does it actually mean? It means basically that the market, chiefly big 💰 / institutions are expecting a future outcome ( or probability of one) and have allocated money appropriately. Historically Fixed Income due to its relative size has been a fairly reliable indicator. Previous crashes this year such as Feb/March crash and the mini NQ/SPY crash in June and July were both foreshadowed by majo high Vol shifts downwards in 10 year bond prices .
Currently 10 year are plumbing new lows at the bottom end of 0.50 percent ( discounting the March flash crash ). This coupled with the meteoric rise in GLD and SLV last night IS NOT A GOOD SIGN. The sharp changes occured directly after stimulus news.
What this means is that Institutions are signalling a chance the package will not be passed on time or in its entirety .
BUT BUT VIX IS DOWN AND EQUITIES ARE UPPIES! yes little autismo, they are but that doesn't mean what you think it does. it's a poorly kept secret that this market is being kept afloat by hedge funds , institutional buying and retail fomo. I don't have the crayons or time to explain it to you but just look at news releases, support level buying and virus/ trade talks pumps. Vix being low doesn't necessarily mean what you think it does either. To oversimplify VIX goes up when more people buy puts. This is typically done to hedge against market drops. Big players don't need to hedge if they SOLD all/ most of their equity holdings and moved it into Bonds/ Gold / Foreign equity. Hedge funds are also notorious for shorting VIX as part of the 'Fed Put " trade . The fact that FI/PM are up while VIX is down makes me more certain of a drop not less as it means Big boys are trying to pass as many bags as they can to retail without spooking them.
  1. There's been a lot of articles on this already so I'll keep it short, you all know how to use Google. SPY since March lows has been split in two like a sociopathic Solomon. There is the big 5 tech and everything else. Currently Big 5 is sitting at 25 percent of all market cap with huge returns over the last few months. This coupled with the performance differential of the other 495 has surpassed levels not seen since the dot com boom. THIS IS NOT SIGN OF A HEALTHY BULL MARKET. Major Bifurcation is the second best signifier of a 🐻 after the technical 20 percent drop level ( which doesn't really mean much) . 🍏 Has now become the largest company in the world surpassing Saudi Aramco. THIS TECH BOOM IS NOT SUSTAINABLE. Most of the apple gains have been from a one of WFH structural shift and Fiscal stimulus ( that now accounts for 25 percent of all disposable income ). If the stimulus bill doesn't pass, Apple is fucked. Just look at the AAPL gains from the last week, do you think this is sustainable?
The common retort on this sub is, " we all know it's a bubble but it will pop in few months, I'm getting my TENDIES while they're hot! "
This sentiment has been thrown around for months all through April to July. Well what if months later is now? What better catalyst for a bubble pop than a Stimulus not going through as planned?
  1. There's been a lot of posts about DXY dying and a lot of it is half true. Currencies are a hard thing to predict but I do want to point out two very key factors that are bullish for DXY. 3a- The entire world, especially emerging markets rely on Dollar inflows from exports to fund imports for key goods, especially commodities (oil etc). Global trade fell off a cliff in March and has barely recovered so where are countries getting dollars? By buying bonds . This was the reason behind the DXY spike to over 100 in March and the reason why the FX central bank swap program was instituted by JPOW. So unless you see global trade rebounding strongly in the very near term ( pigs will fly ) bonds will continue to be bid extremely strongly at auction, supporting DXY.
3b) DXY as has been pointed out is primarily dropping due to Euro strength ( which makes up about 65 percent of the Index). When DXY is compared to the Bloomberg trade weighted dollar index you'll see it hasn't dropped far at all and this makes sense (see 3a above). The Euro bullish trend, along with AUD/USD,GBP/USD and JPY/USD is unlikely to continue much further. Foreign central banks and governments for that matter will not allow the dollar to crater. We've already seen rumblings from the EU and JPY on this front as exports are already in a tenuous position. The last thing foreign companies need is a strong currency to hamper export sales. So I wouldn't bet against the FED, but I sure as shit wouldn't be getting against the ECB.
Summary: I don't see this stimulus playing out on time or in full. Big money is pricing in either a delay or being scaled back substantially to meet Republican demands. I won't go into the specifics of the political theatre because quite frankly it doesn't matter. PM/ BONDS are are all the signalling device you need.
How I see this playing out: The stimulus bill will pass on few weeks after a substantial Rug pull, similar to the 2008 TARP fiasco. I would strongly recommend either holding cash or going long DXY while this plays out. Either buy the dip on GLD/SLV with leaps or go long TLT at like 180c.
Positions : short MNQ 3 units at 10530 and 1 ES at 3220. Yeah got in a little early, wasn't expecting the tech earnings blowout but have the margin to hold.
Looking at GLD leaps for 06/21 300c when we get a pullback ( due to margin calls ).
Thankyou for coming to my TED talk
submitted by DankMemelord25 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

What has Trump actually done? I've done some research... (Requested Re-post)

A little about myself: I have always been a right-leaning financially conservative liberal. Meaning I'm all for newer technologies. I want solar energy, electric cars, auto-driving technologies (Love Musk). I do care about our environment. I do believe LGBT relationships/marriage is awesome. I'm all for Black people having their fair style of policing as well. I hate Nazis, hate Communists, hate racism, sexism, abuse, etc. I hate hate. I love LOVE! I want our government to be LESS controlling and want less taxes. I do NOT believe we should be handing out welfare checks unless IF needed (you just lost a job, sure). If you are sitting on welfare for 10 years....that becomes a problem. I look at BOTH SIDES. I've signed up for newsletters/emails/facebook/twitter groups from both sides. However I've seen that the left has become a socialist groupthink mindset, for example omitting the word God in a few speeches....It's not a BIG deal but small unnoticed details may lead to big overhauls. The censorships of channels, the media attacking conservatives, people getting fired for just having a different political opinion...are you kidding me?? The media turning a blind eye to destruction yet talk about Coronavirus numbers and criminals that are resisting arrest get shot as the cop's fault...however we do need more police training. Cops are aggressive here (I do agree with my liberal friends on that). The double standard: letting people protest for BLM but when the Conservatives tried to protest to go back to work, at the beginning in March/April, they were at fault. Or how CA Gov Newsom stated "You're allowed to protest, but not allowed to have social gatherings"....isn't a protest a type of social gathering.
I don't like to be biased, but holy crap how much I've found what Trump has done for the past 3.5 years is insane!! My point is I look at both sides for politics. Anyways, I decided to do a full day's work with the help of some people to compile a list:
  1. Trump recently signed 3 bills to benefit Native people. One gives compensation to the Spokane tribe for loss of their lands in the mid-1900s, one funds Native language programs, and the third gives federal recognition to the Little Shell Tribe of Chippewa Indians in Montana.
  2. Trump finalized the creation of Space Force as our 6th Military branch.
  3. Trump signed a law to make cruelty to animals a federal felony so that animal abusers face tougher consequences.
  4. Violent crime has fallen every year he’s been in office after rising during the 2 years before he was elected.
  5. Trump signed a bill making CBD and Hemp legal.
  6. Trump’s EPA gave $100 million to fix the water infrastructure problem in Flint, Michigan.
  7. Under Trump’s leadership, in 2018 the U.S. surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest producer of crude oil.
  8. Trump signed a law ending the gag orders on Pharmacists that prevented them from sharing money-saving information.
  9. Trump signed the “Allow States and Victims to Fight Online Sex Trafficking Act” (FOSTA), which includes the “Stop Enabling Sex Traffickers Act” (SESTA) which both give law enforcement and victims new tools to fight sex trafficking.
  10. Trump signed a bill to require airports to provide spaces for breastfeeding Moms.
  11. The 25% lowest-paid Americans enjoyed a 4.5% income boost in November 2019, which outpaces a 2.9% gain in earnings for the country's highest-paid workers.
  12. Low-wage workers are benefiting from higher minimum wages and from corporations that are increasing entry-level pay.
  13. Trump signed the biggest wilderness protection & conservation bill in a decade and designated 375,000 acres as protected land.
  14. Trump signed the Save our Seas Act which funds $10 million per year to clean tons of plastic & garbage from the ocean.
  15. He signed a bill this year allowing some drug imports from Canada so that prescription prices would go down.
  16. Trump signed an executive order this year that forces all healthcare providers to disclose the cost of their services so that Americans can comparison shop and know how much less providers charge insurance companies.
  17. When signing that bill he said no American should be blindsided by bills for medical services they never agreed to in advance.
  18. Hospitals will now be required to post their standard charges for services, which include the discounted price a hospital is willing to accept.
  19. In the eight years prior to President Trump’s inauguration, prescription drug prices increased by an average of 3.6% per year. Under Trump, drug prices have seen year-over-year declines in nine of the last ten months, with a 1.1% drop as of the most recent month.
  20. He created a White House VA Hotline to help veterans and principally staffed it with veterans and direct family members of veterans.
  21. VA employees are being held accountable for poor performance, with more than 4,000 VA employees removed, demoted, and suspended so far.
  22. Issued an executive order requiring the Secretaries of Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs to submit a joint plan to provide veterans access to access to mental health treatment as they transition to civilian life.
  23. Because of a bill signed and championed by Trump, In 2020, most federal employees will see their pay increase by an average of 3.1% — the largest raise in more than 10 years.
  24. Trump signed into a law up to 12 weeks of paid parental leave for millions of federal workers.
  25. Trump administration will provide HIV prevention drugs for free to 200,000 uninsured patients per year for 11 years.
  26. All-time record sales during the 2019 holidays.
  27. Trump signed an order allowing small businesses to group together when buying insurance to get a better price
  28. President Trump signed the Preventing Maternal Deaths Act that provides funding for states to develop maternal mortality reviews to better understand maternal complications and identify solutions & largely focuses on reducing the higher mortality rates for Black Americans.
  29. In 2018, President Trump signed the groundbreaking First Step Act, a criminal justice bill which enacted reforms that make our justice system fairer and help former inmates successfully return to society.
  30. The First Step Act’s reforms addressed inequities in sentencing laws that disproportionately harmed Black Americans and reformed mandatory minimums that created unfair outcomes.
  31. The First Step Act expanded judicial discretion in sentencing of non-violent crimes.
  32. Over 90% of those benefitting from the retroactive sentencing reductions in the First Step Act are Black Americans.
  33. The First Step Act provides rehabilitative programs to inmates, helping them successfully rejoin society and not return to crime.
  34. Trump increased funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) by more than 14%.
  35. Trump signed legislation forgiving Hurricane Katrina debt that threatened HBCUs.
  36. New single-family home sales are up 31.6% in October 2019 compared to just one year ago.
  37. Made HBCUs a priority by creating the position of executive director of the White House Initiative on HBCUs.
  38. Trump received the Bipartisan Justice Award at a historically black college for his criminal justice reform accomplishments.
  39. The poverty rate fell to a 17-year low of 11.8% under the Trump administration as a result of a jobs-rich environment.
  40. Poverty rates for African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans have reached their lowest levels since the U.S. began collecting such data.
  41. President Trump signed a bill that creates five national monuments, expands several national parks, adds 1.3 million acres of wilderness, and permanently reauthorizes the Land and Water Conservation Fund.
  42. Trump’s USDA committed $124 Million to rebuild rural water infrastructure.
  43. Consumer confidence & small business confidence is at an all-time high.
  44. More than 7 million jobs created since election.
  45. More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
  46. More than 400,000 manufacturing jobs created since his election.
  47. Trump appointed 5 openly gay ambassadors.
  48. Trump ordered Ric Grenell, his openly gay ambassador to Germany, to lead a global initiative to decriminalize homosexuality across the globe.
  49. Through Trump’s Anti-Trafficking Coordination Team (ACTeam) initiative, Federal law enforcement more than doubled convictions of human traffickers and increased the number of defendants charged by 75% in ACTeam districts.
  50. In 2018, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismantled an organization that was the internet’s leading source of prostitution-related advertisements resulting in sex trafficking.
  51. Trump’s OMB published new anti-trafficking guidance for government procurement officials to more effectively combat human trafficking.
  52. Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s Homeland Security Investigations arrested 1,588 criminals associated with Human Trafficking.
  53. Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services provided funding to support the National Human Trafficking Hotline to identify perpetrators and give victims the help they need.
  54. The hotline identified 16,862 potential human trafficking cases.
  55. Trump’s DOJ provided grants to organizations that support human trafficking victims – serving nearly 9,000 cases from July 1, 2017, to June 30, 2018.
  56. The Department of Homeland Security has hired more victim assistance specialists, helping victims get resources and support.
  57. President Trump has called on Congress to pass school choice legislation so that no child is trapped in a failing school because of his or her zip code.
  58. The President signed funding legislation in September 2018 that increased funding for school choice by $42 million.
  59. The tax cuts signed into law by President Trump promote school choice by allowing families to use 529 college savings plans for elementary and secondary education.
  60. Under his leadership ISIS has lost most of their territory and been largely dismantled.
  61. ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was killed.
  62. Signed the first Perkins CTE reauthorization since 2006, authorizing more than $1 billion for states each year to fund vocational and career education programs.
  63. Executive order expanding apprenticeship opportunities for students and workers.
  64. Trump issued an Executive Order prohibiting the U.S. government from discriminating against Christians or punishing expressions of faith.
  65. Signed an executive order that allows the government to withhold money from college campuses deemed to be anti-Semitic and who fail to combat anti-Semitism.
  66. President Trump ordered a halt to U.S. tax money going to international organizations that fund or perform abortions.
  67. Trump imposed sanctions on the socialists in Venezuela who have killed their citizens.
  68. Finalized new trade agreement with South Korea.
  69. Made a deal with the European Union to increase U.S. energy exports to Europe.
  70. Withdrew the U.S. from the job killing TPP deal.
  71. Secured $250 billion in new trade and investment deals in China and $12 billion in Vietnam.
  72. Okay’ d up to $12 billion in aid for farmers affected by unfair trade retaliation.
  73. Has had over a dozen US hostages freed, including those Obama could not get freed.
  74. Trump signed the Music Modernization Act, the biggest change to copyright law in decades.
  75. Trump secured Billions that will fund the building of a wall at our southern border.
  76. The Trump Administration is promoting second chance hiring to give former inmates the opportunity to live crime-free lives and find meaningful employment.
  77. Trump’s DOJ and the Board Of Prisons launched a new “Ready to Work Initiative” to help connect employers directly with former prisoners.
  78. President Trump’s historic tax cut legislation included new Opportunity Zone Incentives to promote investment in low-income communities across the country.
  79. 8,764 communities across the country have been designated as Opportunity Zones.
  80. Opportunity Zones are expected to spur $100 billion in long-term private capital investment in economically distressed communities across the country.
  81. Trump directed the Education Secretary to end Common Core.
  82. Trump signed the 9/11 Victims Compensation Fund into law.
  83. Trump signed measure funding prevention programs for Veteran suicide.
  84. Companies have brought back over a TRILLION dollars from overseas because of the TCJA bill that Trump signed.
  85. Manufacturing jobs are growing at the fastest rate in more than 30 years.
  86. Stock Market has reached record highs.
  87. Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded.
  88. African-American unemployment is at an all-time low.(was until Covid bullshit)
  89. Hispanic-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
  90. Asian-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
  91. Women’s unemployment rate is at a 65-year low.
  92. Youth unemployment is at a 50-year low.
  93. We have the lowest unemployment rate ever recorded.
  94. The Pledge to America’s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans.
  95. 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future— the highest ever.
  96. As a result of the Republican tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
  97. Record number of regulations eliminated that hurt small businesses.
  98. Signed welfare reform requiring able-bodied adults who don’t have children to work or look for work if they’re on welfare.
  99. Under Trump, the FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history.
  100. Reformed Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs—saving seniors 100’s of millions of $$$ this year alone.
  101. Signed Right-To-Try legislation allowing terminally ill patients to try experimental treatment that wasn’t allowed before.
  102. Secured $6 billion in new funding to fight the opioid epidemic.
  103. Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care.
  104. U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high so we are less dependent on oil from the Middle East.
  105. The U.S. is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957.
  106. NATO allies increased their defense spending because of his pressure campaign.
  107. Withdrew the United States from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord in 2017 and that same year the U.S. still led the world by having the largest reduction in Carbon emissions.
  108. Has his circuit court judge nominees being confirmed faster than any other new administration.
  109. Had his Supreme Court Justice’s Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh confirmed.
  110. Moved U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
  111. Agreed to a new trade deal with Mexico & Canada that will increase jobs here and $$$ coming in.
  112. Reached a breakthrough agreement with the E.U. to increase U.S. exports.
  113. Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices, has agreed to a Part One trade deal with China.
  114. Signed legislation to improve the National Suicide Hotline.
  115. Signed the most comprehensive childhood cancer legislation ever into law, which will advance childhood cancer research and improve treatments.
  116. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed into law by Trump doubled the maximum amount of the child tax credit available to parents and lifted the income limits so more people could claim it.
  117. It also created a new tax credit for other dependents.
  118. In 2018, President Trump signed into law a $2.4 billion funding increase for the Child Care and Development Fund, providing a total of $8.1 billion to States to fund child care for low-income families.
  119. The Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC) signed into law by Trump provides a tax credit equal to 20-35% of child care expenses, $3,000 per child & $6,000 per family + Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) allow you to set aside up to $5,000 in pre-tax $ to use for child care.
  120. In 2019 President Donald Trump signed the Autism Collaboration, Accountability, Research, Education and Support Act (CARES) into law which allocates $1.8 billion in funding over the next five years to help people with autism spectrum disorder and to help their families.
  121. In 2019 President Trump signed into law two funding packages providing nearly $19 million in new funding for Lupus specific research and education programs, as well an additional $41.7 billion in funding for the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the most Lupus funding EVER.
  122. Another upcoming accomplishment to add: In the next week or two Trump will be signing the first major anti-robocall law in decades called the TRACED Act (Telephone Robocall Abuse Criminal Enforcement and Deterrence.) Once it’s the law, the TRACED Act will extend the period of time the FCC has to catch & punish those who intentionally break telemarketing restrictions. The bill also requires voice service providers to develop a framework to verify calls are legitimate before they reach your phone.
  123. Israel-UAE peace. More Muslim countries (Countries such as Oman, Morocco, Sudan, Lebanon) said they may follow. Last time Israel and a Muslim country normalized ties was 26 years ago.
  124. US stock market continually hits all-time record highs.
Note: I would like to also add that this list will obviously be very similar to other lists if not the same, since these are facts and not really opinions.
I may have missed some stuff or duplicated a few things. Sorry about that. Please let me know if you have anything to add. Thanks for reading!
submitted by Jules0328 to donaldtrump [link] [comments]

Unpopular FIRE opinions that allowed me to FIRE

I realize most of my posts get down voted into oblivion anyway, but I'm ready to embrace that. Much of the reason for "hate" is that I've done things a little (or a lot) unconventionally. Not because I was being contrarian, but because I was already an early retiree long before I discover there was such a thing as FIRE, JL Collins, MMM, Vicki Robbin, etc. In some ways I'm glad for this, because I might not have been able to retire as early as I did by following the conventional wisdom. In other ways, it would have made things much easier by having all that collective knowledge to draw from. The point of this post isn't only to share it is okay to do things your own way from time to time, but to encourage discussion in the comments about things you do that are not kosher in the FIRE world.
My major mistakes that I wish I had a do over on....
1) When I first began investing in stocks, to my knowledge ETFs didn't exist. This was in the 80s when things were handled by telephone transaction to a shady guy who promised you he knew a lot of secret knowledge. I was young and stupid and let one of these guys handle my investments. To this day I don't know what happened to him or my stocks. My next attempt was in the mid 90s when computers were more common and I could take control of my own stock picks through a new platform called Sharebuilder. I did my best, but I'll never really know for sure how I did compared to an index. I subscribed to the Motley Fool Hidden Gems letter and bought everything they recommended along with my own picks. Some did well, some went to zero, some traded flat. To sum up, my early years of investing in the stock market were pretty much a mess.
2) I didn't take advantage of a free higher education. Between my athletic skill and my high academic scores I had a chance to go to college completely free...and when I say free...I mean the 100% full ride of all school fees, meals, housing, etc. But I also have social anxiety. I had attended one rural school my entire life with people I had known since K. The new environment was so stressful for me I stopped attending classes and dropped out my first year.
3) I was underemployed most of my life when working for others or struggling to start my own business. I ended up with a food service job (high end, for the most part) that I did really well at. I was given all sorts of managerial responsibilities. I never asked for raises or official promotions, so allowed myself to be very under paid for the work I was doing. My priorities were elsewhere at the time as by that time I was in a band...this kind of became a theme for my early adult life. My creative projects were more important than my income. Even my entrepreneurial leanings (of which there were several projects) were all about creativity first, making money second. Not sure I really regret that though.
Things I'm glad I did unconventionally....
1) Started buying houses in cash. (a huge no no to most people!) I cashed out most of those stocks I mentioned above to start buying houses. (what? you're risking your future!) In cash. In a LCOL area, of course. I bought fixer uppers with absolutely no background in real estate. I hired people to do the work...and learned everything I could on my first few projects. Luckily I'm good with numbers, and I also seemed to have a knack to find undervalued houses with good bones that made ridiculous rental returns after being fixed up. This soon funded itself from the rental income and I was able to grow fairly quickly. That wouldn't have happened if I had listened to what I now know is the conventional wisdom. Would I advise others follow that path. No...not unless they had a similar market to invest in. Trying to repeat this in some areas of the country would not only hurt your returns, it could lead to financial suicide.
2) I set out to find the optimal way to invest in the stock market FOR MY SITUATION. The rentals provide me a steady income, so I knew I could take extra risk in my stocks. After tons of research I discovered the optimal return for me would be based on high dividend stocks in combination with leveraged index funds. I know, I know. I know all the arguments about dividends. For the most part they are true during the accumulation phase. What is often not discussed is everything changes during the draw down period. Dividends lessen your sequence of returns risk since you don't have to sell into down markets to still get income. Sometimes a $1 is not $1 when it cripples future potential returns. There are research papers that go into this in detail, but the math is solid. And I also know leverage index ETFs are poison to many. DECAY! Yet the few papers that address this in real back testing rather than theory show leverage outperforms by a significant margin over most market cycles. Long term, this really adds up. Does this mean I advocate for other people to do what I am doing. NO! Don't do it. I wouldn't be doing it if I didn't have secure income to last me well past my death. My stock accounts will be going to fund charities after I die, so I do want them to do well, but if they don't, it won't have any impact on my retirement. While my exact mix does extremely well in back testing, anything can happen.
3) I live an extremely frugal life. I spend only $10k per year for the last several years, which is well below poverty levels. This doesn't mean my life in reality is impoverished...my house is paid for, my cars are paid for, etc...and I've found ways to monetize many things that cost a lot of people money. That doesn't change the fact that I KNOW many people would not be happy living the way I live. They would be miserable. I am not, so it works for me. I enjoy the "game" of frugality and low waste while still living a very fulfilling life.
4) I don't have insurance. I carry only the minimums I'm forced to carry on things. Other than that, I try to self insure. I fully understand why most people think I'm an idiot when it comes to this. My argument is that I can set that money aside and insure myself rather than having huge portions of that go to pay for the infrastructure of the insurance companies. In theory, if I'm a healthy adult with deep pockets paying out of pocket should be cheaper in the long run. If not, insurance companies wouldn't be making money. Same reason I don't buy the extended warranty on electronics or other items. Again...I know the other argument, and it is also valid. I don't want to argue the point in the comments because I have discussed this topic to death elsewhere in other posts.
5) I don't have children and don't plan to have children. You do you. If children bring you joy...well, enjoy! I don't hate children. It is just part of my personal philosophy to not bring more life into this world. Long story, not easily summed up in a post like this, so I'll leave it at that.
6) I invest a substantial amount in a relatively new platform. (Fundrise) My risk tolerance in this sort of investment is high (much like my stock portfolio) and it gives me diversity outside the stock market and my local real estate market. I don't think the platform will fail, but it is technically possible. As with everything else on this list, I don't recommend others do it if it isn't money they can stand to lose. This is another investment that will fund a charity some day.
7) I didn't want to list everything in detail, but there are many other things I do that falls outside of the conventional FIRE wisdom. I'm sure I've touched on some of these in the past, and this post is already long. Very long. IF you made it this far, congrats.
So...that is the silly things and maybe a few wise things I do to buck the standard advice. I'd love to hear from others the things they do that don't conform to typical FIRE norms. As always, I'm an open book so feel free to ask questions or tell me how stupid I am!
submitted by AccidentalFIRE to financialindependence [link] [comments]

$PSTG: PURE STORAGE for them, PURE TENDIES for you

$PSTG: PURE STORAGE for them, PURE TENDIES for you
This is actually my first DD I've ever posted so fuck you and forgive me if this doesn't work out for you.I've been looking at $PSTG for a while now and if my buying power didn't get so fucked from my decision to buy 8/7 UBER puts, I would have been already all over this play.
What had got me looking into Pure Storage was an unusual options activity alert. I've looked into this company before but didn't entirely understand what they do. Now after looking at them again, I'm still not exactly sure wtf they do....BUT I've gotten a better clue. Basically what I got from my research is that these guys fuck with "all-FLASH data storage solutions (enabling cloud solutions and other low-latency applications where tape/disk storage does not meet the needs)."......and ultimately what this all means to me is that these are the motherfuckers making those stupid fast laser money printers with the rocket ships attached. And that's something I'm interested in.
Now, here is the DailyDick you all degenerates have all been fiending for:
Fundamentally: PureStorage remains one of the few hardware companies in tech that is consistently growing double motherfucking digits, yet remains constantly cucked and neglected by investors (trading at 1.9x EV/Sales).
https://preview.redd.it/ek7ugjsewnf51.png?width=1118&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9c7e72c95e450a105e44223937422d896eeeb21
The 36 Months beta value for PSTG stock is at 1.62. 74% Buy Rating on RH. PSTG has a short float of 7.28% and public float of 243.36M with average trading volume of 3.16M shares. This was trading at around $18 on Wednesday 8/5 when I started writing this and as of right now, it's about $17.33 💸
The company has a market capitalization of ~$4.6 billion. In the last quarter, PSTG reported a ballin'-ass profit of $256.82 million. Pure Storage also saw revenues increase to $367.12 million. IMO, they should rename themselves PURE PROFIT. As of 04-2020, they got the cash monies flowing at $11.32 million . The company’s EBITDA came in at -$62.81 million which compares very fucking well among its dinosaur ass peers like HPE, Dell, IBM and NetApp. Pure Storage keeps taking market share from them old farts while growing the chad-like revenue #s of 33% in F2019, 21% in F2020, and 12% in F1Q21.
Chart of their financial growth since IPO in 2015:
https://preview.redd.it/gwlmy82v4nf51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6508cd5f641da4086b70d8b8007da034e982fd7
At the end of last quarter, Pure Storage had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $1.274B, compared with $1.299B as of Feb 2, 2020. The total Debt to Equity ratio for PSTG is recording at 0.64 and as of 8/6, Long term Debt to Equity ratio is at 0.64.Earning highlights from last quarter:
  • Revenue $367.1 million, up 12% year-over-year
  • Subscription Services revenue $120.2 million, up 37% year-over-year
  • GAAP gross margin 70.0%; non-GAAP gross margin 71.9%
  • GAAP operating loss $(84.9) million; non-GAAP operating loss $(5.4) million
  • Operating cash flow was $35.1 million, up $28.5 million year-over-year
  • Free cash flow was $11.3 million, up $29.0 million year-over-year
  • Total cash and investments of $1.3 billion
I bolded the Subscription Services Revenue bullet because to me that's a big deal. Pure Storage keeps them coming back with products such as Pure-as-a-service and Cloud Block Store and everybody knows that the recurring revenue model is best model. Big ass enterprises buy storage from vendors such as Pure Storage in the cloud to prevent vendor lock-in by the cloud providers. $$$ >!💰<
What are Pure Storage's other revenue drivers? Well these motherfuckers also have the products to address the growth of Cloud storage as well as the products to drive the growth of on-prem storage. For on-prem data center, Pure sells Flash Array to address block storage workloads (for databases and other mission-critical workloads) and FlashBlade for unstructured or file data workloads. On-prem storage revenue is mainly driven by legacy storage array replacement cycle.
https://preview.redd.it/01su6chrwnf51.png?width=1129&format=png&auto=webp&s=16e6a705f9392291bc0c3932c815802d9101365e
So far, it seems like Pure Storage's obviously passionate and smart as fuck CEO has been spot on with his prediction of the flash storage sector's direction. Also seems like he's not camera shy either. Pure Storage's "Pure-as-a-Service and Cloud Block Store" unified subscription offerings is fo sho gaining momentum it. This shit is catching on with enterprises, both big and small. COVID-19 increased the acceleration of our digital transformation and the subsequent shift to the cloud. This increased demand in data-centers is going to drastically help Pure Storage's future top and bottom line. To top it off, NAND prices are recovering! (inferred from MU earnings). I expect Pure Storage to get some relief on the pricing front because of this which obviously in turn should improve revenues.
PSTG's numbers look pretty good to me so far but are they a good company overall? Even when scalping and trading, I don't like to fuck with overall shitty companies so I always check for basic things like customer satisfaction, analyst ratings/targets, broad-view industry trends, and hedge fund positioning.. that sort of thing.Pure Storage stands out in all of these fields for me.
https://preview.redd.it/4n0e5nve5of51.png?width=373&format=png&auto=webp&s=495416bb6f5a2dab77f3ac483ca4d9510b39037c
Customers like Dominos Pizza and many others all seem to be happy AF with no issues. I can hardly even find a negative review online. Their products seems to be universally applauded. Gartner and other third party independent analysts also consider Pure Storage's product line-up some of the best in the industry.
The industry average for this sector is a piss poor 65.Pure Storage has a 2020 Net Promoter Score of 86
https://preview.redd.it/3w51io8yvmf51.png?width=698&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f7d06825d0ad9d126216e5069af2f9c3636f86a
Enterprises are upgrading their existing storage infrastructure with newer and more modern data arrays, based on NAND flash. They do this because they're forced to keep up with the increasing speed of business inter-connectivity. This shit is the 5g revolution sort to speak of the corporate business world. Storage demands and needs aren't changing because of the pandemic and isn't changing in the future. The newer storage arrays are smaller, consume less power, are less noisy and do not generate excess heat in the data center and hence do not need to be cooled like the fat fucks at IBM need to be. Flash storage arrays in general are cheaper to operate and are extremely fast, speeding up applications. Pure Storage by all accounts makes the best storage arrays in the industry and continues to grow faster than the old school storage vendors like bitchass NetApp, Dell, HPE and IBM.
Pure Storage’s market share was 12.7% in C1Q20 and was up from 10.1% in the prior year - LIKE A PROPER HIGH GROWTH COMPANY.HPE, NetApp and IBM, like the losers they are, lost market share.According to blocksandfiles.com, AFA vendor market share sizes and shifts are paraphrased below:
  • “Dell EMC – 34.8% (calculated $766m) vs. 33.7% a year ago
  • NetApp – 19.3% at $425m vs. 26.7% a year ago
  • Pure Storage – 12.7% at calculated $279.7m vs. 10.1% a year ago
  • HPE – 8.4% – $185m vs. 10% a year ago"
Pure has been gaining marketshare almost every year since it began selling storage arrays in 2011. Pure Storage is consistently rated the highest for the completeness of vision as this chart shows:
https://preview.redd.it/5agj17gcgnf51.png?width=428&format=png&auto=webp&s=da9c6389baccab85261d6e0f71b3474e84b90d3c
Hedge Funds are on this like flies on shit.
Alliancebernstein L.P. grew its position in Pure Storage by 0.5% in the 4th quarter. Alliancebernstein L.P. now owns 104,390 shares of the technology company’s stock worth $1,786,000 after purchasing an additional 560 shares during the last quarter.
Legal & General Group Plc grew its position in Pure Storage by 0.3% in the 1st quarter. Legal & General Group Plc now owns 258,791 shares of the technology company’s stock worth $3,213,000 after purchasing an additional 753 shares during the last quarter.
Sunbelt Securities Inc. acquired a new stake in Pure Storage in the 4th quarter worth $4,106,000.
CENTRAL TRUST Co grew its position in Pure Storage by 79.8% in the 2nd quarter. CENTRAL TRUST Co now owns 3,226 shares of the technology company’s stock worth $56,000 after purchasing an additional 1,432 shares during the last quarter.
Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. grew its position in Pure Storage by 203.0% in the 1st quarter. Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. now owns 2,312 shares of the technology company’s stock worth $28,000 after purchasing an additional 1,549 shares during the last quarter.
Also, everybody's favorite wall street TSLA bull, Cathie Wood has been busy steadily purchasing big lots of PSTG for her ARK ETF funds for a while now...Even going as far as selling TSLA in order to re-balance!
https://preview.redd.it/zjxuakjosnf51.png?width=1125&format=png&auto=webp&s=f34abdd3b35791eb207d31d72ea0f6fb11beec30
https://preview.redd.it/bkf1uzb2tmf51.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9870ec41cfb4ce468ba61d83f2f8a4151927a4e
Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 78.93% of the company’s stock and it seems like more are piling in every day.
Tons of active options, too -Pretty good volume lately with the spreads looking decent.
Over 5,000 September $20 Calls added just on 8/3 alone 🤔
Order flow helps my thesis here, showing a recent influx of big dick money moving into PSTG.
https://preview.redd.it/liychuhblnf51.png?width=592&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca6a60d54a9eb8bd9e32e0ef70992b8282c29e70
Google Search Trends showing uptick in interest: SPY420 baby
https://preview.redd.it/joo0b9wxinf51.png?width=1710&format=png&auto=webp&s=24eb18f18be18b9b771ff1911c09c5479ba2f1a0
Robinhood Trends showing the YOLO is trending up
https://preview.redd.it/4gk5yjdxmnf51.png?width=1538&format=png&auto=webp&s=76c4b114c133c493c84386d1705f85229f5f7d44
Increased job postings on LinkedIn all across the globe, further supporting the idea that Pure Cloud Adoption is looking strong.
https://preview.redd.it/5zenasprznf51.png?width=1092&format=png&auto=webp&s=a492e227e2208fe89925c9b7fe365634f7ffde6a
Technically: This broke out through down-trend line a couple of days ago and as of right now looks to be pretty oversold. Looks like its found support at the 50 DMA and zooming out , the chart just looks like to me that it's coiling up for a big breakout.
https://preview.redd.it/wxtz8minmnf51.png?width=1208&format=png&auto=webp&s=7baabbd3e8f97dfc8bd0d5bfa512613c2eea4921
These fucking shorts are going to get squeezed out hard. Potential short squeeze coming?
https://preview.redd.it/lh8lp08funf51.png?width=1533&format=png&auto=webp&s=921b6684369e25e94f00ed96a404458028e540c8
**So what's the play?**I'd like to see RSI break out of the downtrend and the divergence between price & momentum ends at some point. If/when RSI breaks out, I want to play this thing aggressively with bullish call calendar spreads....THAT IS IF I HAD SOME FUCKING BUYING POWER (FUCK YOU UBER)....Soooo really what I'll be doing is asking my wife's boyfriend sometime this weekend for a loan. That way on Monday I can buy some $PSTG 9/18 $17.5 & $20 calls at open and YOLO my saddness away for a week.God forbid, I might even buy of those things called "shares" I heard about from /investing if at all possible because in all honesty, I really do feel like this is a good company to hold in a long term growth portfolio.Pure Storage is NOT looking like your average KODK prostitute to flip or scalp and actually more like someone you'd bring home to your dads.
EARNING DATE: 8/25
Pure Storage has a history of beating estimates and rocketing up. Over the last 20 quarters, the company beat revenue 17 quarters by an average of $4.9 million or about 3%. Out of the three times that the company missed on revenues, once was due to supply fuck-ups at one of its distributors and the other two times were due to Average Selling Prices declining faster than the company forecasted. Higher-than-expected ASP declines (due to NAND oversupply) is one of the risks of the storage business...but then again NAND prices look to be recovering now if MU's earning isn't fucking with us and telling us fibs. Big money is forecasting revenue to be around $396 million, essentially flat year-over-year, and EPS of a disrespectful ass penny....Fuck that conservative ass guidance! I think PSTG is going to blow that shit out the water. This chart shows Pure Storage’s past performance and we all know for sure that past performance = future results.....right?
https://preview.redd.it/4xflpezdhnf51.png?width=623&format=png&auto=webp&s=c1660a80a1a1821ef8098791a8cee632e25f1445
My Prediction: After ER8/25, Pure Storage will hit new 52 week highs.$20.50 - $23.50 is my guess. Bold prediction, $27.50+ by the EOY and $50 by December 2021.
tldr: PSTG 9/18 $17.5 & $20 calls

edit: for those that bought into this, I'm in this with you!
Let's pray for a rebound next week. also, Fuck Cisco!
submitted by OnYourSide to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

[NYTimes] Sources describe horror stories of young and inexperienced investors on Robinhood, many engaging in riskier trades at far higher volumes than at other firms

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/technology/robinhood-risky-trading.html
Richard Dobatse, a Navy medic in San Diego, dabbled infrequently in stock trading. But his behavior changed in 2017 when he signed up for Robinhood, a trading app that made buying and selling stocks simple and seemingly free.
Mr. Dobatse, now 32, said he had been charmed by Robinhood’s one-click trading, easy access to complex investment products, and features like falling confetti and emoji-filled phone notifications that made it feel like a game. After funding his account with $15,000 in credit card advances, he began spending more time on the app.
As he repeatedly lost money, Mr. Dobatse took out two $30,000 home equity loans so he could buy and sell more speculative stocks and options, hoping to pay off his debts. His account value shot above $1 million this year — but almost all of that recently disappeared. This week, his balance was $6,956.
“When he is doing his trading, he won’t want to eat,” said his wife, Tashika Dobatse, with whom he has three children. “He would have nightmares.”
Millions of young Americans have begun investing in recent years through Robinhood, which was founded in 2013 with a sales pitch of no trading fees or account minimums. The ease of trading has turned it into a cultural phenomenon and a Silicon Valley darling, with the start-up climbing to an $8.3 billion valuation. It has been one of the tech industry’s biggest growth stories in the recent market turmoil.
But at least part of Robinhood’s success appears to have been built on a Silicon Valley playbook of behavioral nudges and push notifications, which has drawn inexperienced investors into the riskiest trading, according to an analysis of industry data and legal filings, as well as interviews with nine current and former Robinhood employees and more than a dozen customers. And the more that customers engaged in such behavior, the better it was for the company, the data shows.
Thanks for reading The Times. Subscribe to The Times More than at any other retail brokerage firm, Robinhood’s users trade the riskiest products and at the fastest pace, according to an analysis of new filings from nine brokerage firms by the research firm Alphacution for The New York Times.
In the first three months of 2020, Robinhood users traded nine times as many shares as E-Trade customers, and 40 times as many shares as Charles Schwab customers, per dollar in the average customer account in the most recent quarter. They also bought and sold 88 times as many risky options contracts as Schwab customers, relative to the average account size, according to the analysis.
The more often small investors trade stocks, the worse their returns are likely to be, studies have shown. The returns are even worse when they get involved with options, research has found.
This kind of trading, where a few minutes can mean the difference between winning and losing, was particularly hazardous on Robinhood because the firm has experienced an unusual number of technology issues, public records show. Some Robinhood employees, who declined to be identified for fear of retaliation, said the company failed to provide adequate guardrails and technology to support its customers.
Those dangers came into focus last month when Alex Kearns, 20, a college student in Nebraska, killed himself after he logged into the app and saw that his balance had dropped to negative $730,000. The figure was high partly because of some incomplete trades.
“There was no intention to be assigned this much and take this much risk,” Mr. Kearns wrote in his suicide note, which a family member posted on Twitter.
Like Mr. Kearns, Robinhood’s average customer is young and lacks investing know-how. The average age is 31, the company said, and half of its customers had never invested before.
Some have visited Robinhood’s headquarters in Menlo Park, Calif., in recent years to confront the staff about their losses, said four employees who witnessed the incidents. This year, they said, the start-up installed bulletproof glass at the front entrance.
“They encourage people to go from training wheels to driving motorcycles,” Scott Smith, who tracks brokerage firms at the financial consulting firm Cerulli, said of Robinhood. “Over the long term, it’s like trying to beat the casino.”
At the core of Robinhood’s business is an incentive to encourage more trading. It does not charge fees for trading, but it is still paid more if its customers trade more.
That’s because it makes money through a complex practice known as “payment for order flow.” Each time a Robinhood customer trades, Wall Street firms actually buy or sell the shares and determine what price the customer gets. These firms pay Robinhood for the right to do this, because they then engage in a form of arbitrage by trying to buy or sell the stock for a profit over what they give the Robinhood customer.
This practice is not new, and retail brokers such as E-Trade and Schwab also do it. But Robinhood makes significantly more than they do for each stock share and options contract sent to the professional trading firms, the filings show.
For each share of stock traded, Robinhood made four to 15 times more than Schwab in the most recent quarter, according to the filings. In total, Robinhood got $18,955 from the trading firms for every dollar in the average customer account, while Schwab made $195, the Alphacution analysis shows. Industry experts said this was most likely because the trading firms believed they could score the easiest profits from Robinhood customers.
Vlad Tenev, a founder and co-chief executive of Robinhood, said in an interview that even with some of its customers losing money, young Americans risked greater losses by not investing in stocks at all. Not participating in the markets “ultimately contributed to the sort of the massive inequalities that we’re seeing in society,” he said.
Mr. Tenev said only 12 percent of the traders active on Robinhood each month used options, which allow people to bet on where the price of a specific stock will be on a specific day and multiply that by 100. He said the company had added educational content on how to invest safely.
He declined to comment on why Robinhood makes more than its competitors from the Wall Street firms. The company also declined to comment on Mr. Dobatse or provide data on its customers’ performance.
Robinhood does not force people to trade, of course. But its success at getting them do so has been highlighted internally. In June, the actor Ashton Kutcher, who has invested in Robinhood, attended one of the company’s weekly staff meetings on Zoom and celebrated its success by comparing it to gambling websites, said three people who were on the call.
Mr. Kutcher said in a statement that his comment “was not intended to be a comparison of business models nor the experience Robinhood provides its customers” and that it referred “to the current growth metrics.” He added that he was “absolutely not insinuating that Robinhood was a gambling platform.”
ImageRobinhood’s co-founders and co-chief executives, Baiju Bhatt, left, and Vlad Tenev, created the company to make investing accessible to everyone. Robinhood’s co-founders and co-chief executives, Baiju Bhatt, left, and Vlad Tenev, created the company to make investing accessible to everyone.Credit...via Reuters Robinhood was founded by Mr. Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, two children of immigrants who met at Stanford University in 2005. After teaming up on several ventures, including a high-speed trading firm, they were inspired by the Occupy Wall Street movement to create a company that would make finance more accessible, they said. They named the start-up Robinhood after the English outlaw who stole from the rich and gave to the poor.
Robinhood eliminated trading fees while most brokerage firms charged $10 or more for a trade. It also added features to make investing more like a game. New members were given a free share of stock, but only after they scratched off images that looked like a lottery ticket.
The app is simple to use. The home screen has a list of trendy stocks. If a customer touches one of them, a green button pops up with the word “trade,” skipping many of the steps that other firms require.
Robinhood initially offered only stock trading. Over time, it added options trading and margin loans, which make it possible to turbocharge investment gains — and to supersize losses.
The app advertises options with the tagline “quick, straightforward & free.” Customers who want to trade options answer just a few multiple-choice questions. Beginners are legally barred from trading options, but those who click that they have no investing experience are coached by the app on how to change the answer to “not much” experience. Then people can immediately begin trading.
Before Robinhood added options trading in 2017, Mr. Bhatt scoffed at the idea that the company was letting investors take uninformed risks.
“The best thing we can say to those people is ‘Just do it,’” he told Business Insider at the time.
In May, Robinhood said it had 13 million accounts, up from 10 million at the end of 2019. Schwab said it had 12.7 million brokerage accounts in its latest filings; E-Trade reported 5.5 million.
That growth has kept the money flowing in from venture capitalists. Sequoia Capital and New Enterprise Associates are among those that have poured $1.3 billion into Robinhood. In May, the company received a fresh $280 million.
“Robinhood has made the financial markets accessible to the masses and, in turn, revolutionized the decades-old brokerage industry,” Andrew Reed, a partner at Sequoia, said after last month’s fund-raising.
Image Robinhood shows users that its options trading is free of commissions. Robinhood shows users that its options trading is free of commissions. Mr. Tenev has said Robinhood has invested in the best technology in the industry. But the risks of trading through the app have been compounded by its tech glitches.
In 2018, Robinhood released software that accidentally reversed the direction of options trades, giving customers the opposite outcome from what they expected. Last year, it mistakenly allowed people to borrow infinite money to multiply their bets, leading to some enormous gains and losses.
Robinhood’s website has also gone down more often than those of its rivals — 47 times since March for Robinhood and 10 times for Schwab — according to a Times analysis of data from Downdetector.com, which tracks website reliability. In March, the site was down for almost two days, just as stock prices were gyrating because of the coronavirus pandemic. Robinhood’s customers were unable to make trades to blunt the damage to their accounts.
Four Robinhood employees, who declined to be identified, said the outage was rooted in issues with the company’s phone app and servers. They said the start-up had underinvested in technology and moved too quickly rather than carefully.
Mr. Tenev said he could not talk about the outage beyond a company blog post that said it was “not acceptable.” Robinhood had recently made new technology investments, he said.
Plaintiffs who have sued over the outage said Robinhood had done little to respond to their losses. Unlike other brokers, the company has no phone number for customers to call.
Mr. Dobatse suffered his biggest losses in the March outage — $860,000, his records show. Robinhood did not respond to his emails, he said, adding that he planned to take his case to financial regulators for arbitration.
“They make it so easy for people that don’t know anything about stocks,” he said. “Then you go there and you start to lose money.”
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Bitcoin Moves to Break Key Resistance, But Funding Rates Could Spell Understanding the Pattern Day Trader Rule - YouTube Angel Broking explains what is Margin Funding  मार्जिन ट्रेडिंग क्या होता है  Angel Broking How does CrowdFunding work? What is Margin Trading?( Hindi ) जानिए क्या है मार्जिन ट्रेडिंग ? (हिंदी में)

Margin Trading: In the stock market, margin trading refers to the process whereby individual investors buy more stocks than they can afford to. Margin trading also refers to intraday trading in India and various stock brokers provide this service. Margin trading involves buying and selling of securities in one single session. Over time, ... This is the point where Margin Trading comes into effect. Margin Trading Meaning. Margin Trading i s the process of using borrowed funds from the stockbrokers to trade. By using this process, the traders are able to buy more securities than they can otherwise afford at any point in time. Margin Funding is a short-term loan facility in trading. Understand its uses and benefits with the help of an example. Visit Angel Broking website now for details. Sharekhan provides funding for the shares bought by you. You just need to pay only a part of the total value of shares bought. For e.g. if you have bought shares of Reliance worth Rs. 1,00,000 then you are supposed to pay 25% * i.e. Rs. 25,000 only and balance 75,000 will be paid by Sharekhan on your behalf. Our margin funding feature goes hand in hand with margin trading. If you are not a trader and prefer safer investments, this feature is for you. Through your Funding Wallet, Bitfinex allows you to provide funding in any of our various funding currencies to traders.You can enter offers with your own chosen terms (return rate, duration, and amount).

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Bitcoin Moves to Break Key Resistance, But Funding Rates Could Spell

But first learn about margin funding with Angel Broking’s fun-to-learn 60sec videos that will explain the concept of margin funding and also to help you learn the basics of equity & share-trading. If you make 4 or more day trades within a 5-day period using a margin account, you can be considered a pattern day trader. Learn about the PDT rule with Tim ... There are 2 types of margin trading or margin funding. 1. Intraday: This is further divided into two i.e. margin money for trades without stop loss and margin money for cover or bracket order.... Funding on margin trading platforms like BitMEX can offer investors with insight into the strength of price movements. This latest rally has led funding to climb higher, meaning that traders in ... Buying on margin is borrowing money from a broker to purchase stock. You can think of it as a loan from your brokerage. Margin trading allows you to buy more stock than you'd be able to normally....

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